OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

[Empoleon8771]

I told you all that Reynolds value was much higher than people claimed it to be ($ wise). I said he would need a contract well into the 100 millions range. This is squarely on Nutting and MLB. The league has set up a handful of teams that act as feeders to the big market clubs. The Pirates exist to benefit the big boys. Those teams can't draft/sign ALL the talent so a team like Pittsburgh exists, to give away talent for pennies on the dollar.

His value is that because he wants long-term, not that people were underestimating his value.

When I was saying his value was $80 million to $90 million, I was saying that under the assumption that we were talking about a medium term deal. If Reynolds wants an 8 year deal, of course $80 million to $90 million isn't going to cut it. The reason that the Pirates can't get Reynolds to an $80 million or so deal is because Reynolds doesn't want a 5 year deal, he wants an 8 year deal.

 

[ChaosAgent]

IE sure told me that Reynolds wanted more money!

I sure am glad that he came back for more of the "everyone more optimistic is a maniac, everyone more pessimistic is an idiot" shtick.

The reality is that we can compete in baseball, but it takes better management than we've had. Really, if the team actually took steps forward last season handing BR $110M could have happened. But since they punted on the ML team and the prospect pool performed below expectations, it won't. Bye bye Bryan.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Rosenthal: Why the Pirates should trade Bryan Reynolds

The Pirates should trade Bryan Reynolds, and not simply because he wants to be liberated from their miserly ways.

theathletic.com

This article sounds like it was written by Reynolds agent. Yikes.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

IE sure told me that Reynolds wanted more money!

I sure am glad that he came back for more of the "everyone more optimistic is a maniac, everyone more pessimistic is an idiot" shtick.

The reality is that we can compete in baseball, but it takes better management than we've had. Really, if the team actually took steps forward last season handing BR $110M could have happened. But since they punted on the ML team and the prospect pool performed below expectations, it won't. Bye bye Bryan.

If they offered BR 5-100 right to lock him until he is 33 and through 2029 you think he is happy

 

[Empoleon8771]

Thinking about it some more, I actually do think there is a semi reasonable middle ground that can be achieved between the Pirates and Reynolds if both sides wanted to continue the relationship. It would require a term more than what the Pirates were offering (my guess is 5 or 6 years) with an 8 figure commitment. If you can get the offer to $110 million to $120 million, suddenly the opportunity cost of Reynolds signing that deal becomes less and less.

6 years and $115 million is what I think would be a reasonable middle ground between the two sides. That has 2 arb years valued at $10 and $15 million respectively, and 4 UFA years valued at $22.5 million. That $22.5 million is right in the middle between Marte ($19.5 million) and Springer ($25 million). Reynolds still gets his 8 figure retirement contract, it will just not be as long or as big as he might potentially be able to get. The Pirates give him more term and more money than they likely want to be giving him, but the AAV is still reasonable throughout the deal. It's just 1 extra year and about $2.5 million more a year in his UFA years than they probably want to go.

 

[Gallatin]

DK is very influential as a thought leader in Pittsburgh sports though.

He's a flawed person and I don't subscribe to his website, but the guy built a Pittsburgh version of "The Athletic." I'm not gonna knock it.
The Pirates had a disaster season in 2022 and underperformed post 2021 expectations by 10 wins. This was largely due to failures of the general manager. It also pushed their timeline of contention and trying to actually compete out by 1 year. This doesn't work out well for Reynolds.

At the same time, you're right. Baseball's ridiculous service time rules...which the players had a lockout over but ultimately caved...make it so that Reynolds, a good but not great player, won't see a chance at a big payday until he is 31. At which point the big payday may disappear because his level may drop especially defensively. I don't blame Boras at all for trying to steer his clients in this situation to teams that will pre-pay and give a generous extension before Free Agency. Not at all.

Yeah you nailed it. I catch some of his free stuff on youtube, but I won't give that guy any money, I know him too well.

And DK is influential. Right now he's trying to troll up some high capability passionate fans that want to invest their lives into making the Nuttings lives hell. I think it's a good idea. But I'm mos def not that guy.

 

[Gallatin]

I told you all that Reynolds value was much higher than people claimed it to be ($ wise). I said he would need a contract well into the 100 millions range. This is squarely on Nutting and MLB. The league has set up a handful of teams that act as feeders to the big market clubs. The Pirates exist to benefit the big boys. Those teams can't draft/sign ALL the talent so a team like Pittsburgh exists, to give away talent for pennies on the dollar.

This is a coordinated effort to rig the league in favor of a handful of teams/markets. It's beyond clear that MLB is broken and has no intention of trying to create an environment where every team can compete.

So, obviously be preparred for a subpar return because we didn't deal him at the peak value. Teams know he wants out, is coming off a good but not great year. Given the fact we knew this exact situation would happen, not dealing him after the big 2021 year smacks of deliberate sabatoge. There was absolutely no way he was re-signing here. I've been saying it for years and people just scoffed. People said he could be had for under 100M. It's just utter stupidity at this point w/most.

Do we have a shitload of young talent on the way? Yep.

Will most of them be gone via subpar development or trade within the next 5 years? Yep.

I mean this franchise kept Shelton and Haines after their stellar work but claim to be putting a foot forward in 2023?

Yep. Been that way forever. Just gets worse by the year IMO.

It's a depressing off-season. This was the year to invest for success. They punted, and now are scrambling as it all falls apart due to their indifferent attitudes towards winning.

Rosenthal: Why the Pirates should trade Bryan Reynolds

The Pirates should trade Bryan Reynolds, and not simply because he wants to be liberated from their miserly ways.

theathletic.com

This article sounds like it was written by Reynolds agent. Yikes.

That's more common than most realize.

 

[Empoleon8771]

 

[Empoleon8771]

Reading more into Jasson Dominguez and I think I'm all aboard trading Reynolds to NY. He perfectly replaces Reynolds as the switch hitting threat, seems to have a very well rounded skillset and should be able to step in during the same contending window that this team hopes will open in the next few years. He's 19 and broke into AA this year, I don't think it's crazy to think he'll break into the MLB in late 2024.

There are some concerns about his viability in staying in CF, but you can say the same exact thing about Reynolds as well. A 50 grade hit tool with 60 grade power, 55 grade speed and 50 grade defense in CF? That sounds pretty damn similar to what Reynolds is today.

Edit: and I'll give Yankees fans credit, from reading their proposals I definitely think they'd be willing to pay the price to get Reynolds. The Pirates might not get both Peraza and Dominguez, but they can very likely get Dominguez and 2-3 45 FV or better prospects if the Yankees opinion aligns with their fans. I saw Dominguez, Pereira, Schmidt and Gil for Reynolds and I think that's a pretty solid offer. Baseball Trade Values thinks it's decently close in value as well.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Setting the other stuff aside, I hope that the situation either escalates and is resolved quickly, or we make another addition for next year. The worst outcome here would be to see this situation drag out for several weeks. If there's a trade to be had, then I think the best value is right now, before teams really turn to backup deals. If the team is going to hold firm and not trade him, then the way to do that is not by standing pat but by adding further to make the 2023 team better.

I prefer a deal ASAP and certainly prior to the season starting (assuming a deal is inevitable), but continuing to add some pieces and then having the top impact+cheap controllable years option at the deadline still isn't a catastrophe, as long as it's not just another 100 loss season or so.

I like the Yankees being involved, but I would insist in Volpe in order to make the best Dominguez+ deal possible. I don't love Dominguez as a headliner, but if it's Dominguez+Cabrera or Peraza, it's more palatable. I think that's feasible of Toronto is willing to put Moreno on the table, and it's a bonus that the two are in the same division and would have a vested interest in making sure the other doesn't get Reynolds. This is especially true for Toronto since they don't seem to have the money to chase too many FAs. It's an interesting question whether to take a Moreno+ package or the deeper and more balanced Yankees possibilities. I think the Yankees can clearly top a package with Volpe+, but push comes to shove, I'd prefer Moreno to other options, assuming the Yankees refuse to deal Volpe.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Like Manchester United are on every players out there.

There is a fit for the Yankees, but until the Judge situation is resolved, nothing will happen on that front.

I guess if they were to go after Reynolds, it would be to play LF with Bader at CF and Judge at RF.

 

[Empoleon8771]

That contract isn’t going to age well

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'm sorry but no.

Anyone who suggested Reynolds signing here for a 5/75 or some contract that didn't involve 9 digits deserves to be called out, which is A LOT of people, on this board. Period. Don't like it? I don't give a shit.

If you want insight that actually makes logical and real world sense, pay attention to what I say. Otherwise, live in a fantasy land where the Pirates can sign players for absurdly below market valuations. You know, players who at the time were coming off an incredible year, btw, which Reynolds was after the 2021 campaign.

This entire situation could have been avoided if we dealt the MF LAST WINTER when his value, and years of control were AT PEAK.

I mean this isn't f***ing rocket science. Yet, people here, AND credentialed idiots in the media make it seem like he'd ink a deal that Scott Boras would hang up on in about 1.5 seconds flat. Not even a a launching point. Not to mention the fact we have not given one indication we're trying to compete during his time here.

This is why the game is rigged. Reynolds was kept here, despite knowing that he and Boras would NEVER accept or negotiate based on the best case offer from Nutting.

Now, we're in a situation where Reynolds had a decent but not outstanding year. Another year of control lost, AND every team in the biz knows he wants out. The Pirates used to have some leverage. They don't anymore. They risk him further regressing/getting hurt/losing more years of control, which means they deal him sooner than later, but still for a cheaper return than they would have got 12 months ago.

How'd that Cole return go btw? Another Boras dude no?

I DO believe we have a few players on the roster and many more on the way capable of making up a winning roster. We simply do not have a league, owner, or FO that is interested in putting a winning team out there in the city of Pittsburgh as Pittsburgh is an extremely small market, and money is king. Pittsburgh doing well, while a larger market not doing so is not in the best interest for MLB and the teams who bring in the most cash.

There is a reason why Nutting won't sell. He knows his kids will simply take over and run the damn thing as it has been since he bought it. MLB would never allow a sale to an owner who would push the envelope consistently.

And btw, good for Reynolds. Losing 100 odd games year after year blows. He owes the team nothing.

Enjoy your evenings.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I would demand either both of these guys or Moreno for Reynolds. I wouldn't trade him to the Blue Jays without that.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I'm sorry but no.

Anyone who suggested Reynolds signing here for a 5/75 or some contract that didn't involve 9 digits deserves to be called out, which is A LOT of people, on this board. Period. Don't like it? I don't give a shit.

If you want insight that actually makes logical and real world sense, pay attention to what I say. Otherwise, live in a fantasy land where the Pirates can sign players for absurdly below market valuations. You know, players who at the time were coming off an incredible year, btw, which Reynolds was after the 2021 campaign.

This entire situation could have been avoided if we dealt the MF LAST WINTER when his value, and years of control were AT PEAK.

I mean this isn't f***ing rocket science. Yet, people here, AND credentialed idiots in the media make it seem like he'd ink a deal that Scott Boras would hang up on in about 1.5 seconds flat. Not even a a launching point. Not to mention the fact we have not given one indication we're trying to compete during his time here.

This is why the game is rigged. Reynolds was kept here, despite knowing that he and Boras would NEVER accept or negotiate based on the best case offer from Nutting.

Now, we're in a situation where Reynolds had a decent but not outstanding year. Another year of control lost, AND every team in the biz knows he wants out. The Pirates used to have some leverage. They don't anymore. They risk him further regressing/getting hurt/losing more years of control, which means they deal him sooner than later, but still for a cheaper return than they would have got 12 months ago.

How'd that Cole return go btw? Another Boras dude no?

I DO believe we have a few players on the roster and many more on the way capable of making up a winning roster. We simply do not have a league, owner, or FO that is interested in putting a winning team out there in the city of Pittsburgh as Pittsburgh is an extremely small market, and money is king. Pittsburgh doing well, while a larger market not doing so is not in the best interest for MLB and the teams who bring in the most cash.

There is a reason why Nutting won't sell. He knows his kids will simply take over and run the damn thing as it has been since he bought it. MLB would never allow a sale to an owner who would push the envelope consistently.

And btw, good for Reynolds. Losing 100 odd games year after year blows. He owes the team nothing.

Enjoy your evenings.

Nothing has changed you think the new team is going to pay him the moment they trade for him? He has 2 subpar years in his 4 year career he is 2 years away from seeing anything close to 5-100

 

[ChaosAgent]

Everything I know in life I learned from Costanza.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Endy comes up in June, best case. Don't even bother getting excited for anything before that.

Same old shit.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Nothing has changed you think the new team is going to pay him the moment they trade for him? He has 2 subpar years in his 4 year career he is 2 years away from seeing anything close to 5-100

The new team is going to extend him for 120-140M million over 7-8 years. Because A, that team will be a contender, and B, subsequently, can afford to do so.

He's not a 1st/2nd year player.

Next.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I love when a poster is an unrepentant apologist for the current regime, and a huge bag about it, for an entire season, then turns around in November-December and acts like he invented cynicism

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'll be really surprised if Reynolds gets an extension for that long from a team if/when he's acquired. There's basically no analogue to his type of player getting such an extension in either term or dollars, and a lot of teams -- though admittedly, maybe not the ones who would acquire him -- don't necessarily think he's a CF long-term. Reynolds' best case scenario is that a team is willing to buy out two or maybe three free agent years at more of a premium, but his biggest selling point is that you get the age 28, 29, and 30 seasons of a really good CF/LF for 30 million or so.

We don't know the nature of the offer the Pirates made, but it's possible that what turned it into an impasse is that not all the money was guaranteed or something, or that the 2 FA years were guaranteed, but then beyond that, into the age 33+ season(s), there were club options.

I truly think Reynolds' best case scenario right now would 5 years, 85M. That's a liberal arbitration buy out and 25ish for FA years. Maybe a team goes 6/110, but I doubt even that. I cannot think of a big deal that netted a similar player and even CF (assuming he sticks for several years, for the sake of argument) that is similar. Every mega-extension has been to a very young player, and big free agency deals go to different kinds of players.

It stands to reason that pretty much any MLB team is going to have a similar assessment. Reynolds can set himself up for a pretty big payday in free agency with consistent performance, such that he maybe ultimately earns 5/100 after the team control years, but that's about the ceiling. Similar type of players off the top of my head are Springer, who got 6/150 but had both the elite performance and the World Series MVP, and now Brandon Nimmo, who has better OBP god skills and figures to get 5/100, or maybe a bit more. Don't get me wrong, I think Reynolds is very well capable of continuing to play at an elite level for the next three years and earn that contract, but I don't see why any MLB team is going to commit to making him a core player when they can just have the cost controlled years and assess later.

 

[Empoleon8771]

6 years and $115 million is what I'd offer Reynolds as my absolute final offer. That's 2 arb years at $10 million and $15 million followed by 4 years at $22.5 million as a UFA. That $22.5 million per year that he would be getting in those UFA years splits between Marte's yearly value ($19.5 million) and Springer's yearly value ($25 million). If Reynolds wouldn't take that, he just wouldn't want to stay. I'm already uncomfortable at 6 years and $115 million, that would basically be a "I literally can't go any higher" offer.

I don't think Nutting would approve of that contract anyway, so I think it's a moot point. I'm fully anticipating him being traded and I fully believe it's the correct decision for the franchise.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Teams with disposable monies will overpay for a guy on the young side of 30.

Someone will lock him in through age 35/36. At 18-20 million per.

He's 27, has been playing on a SHIT roster with SHIT protection. Good D, switch hitter who can actually switch hit.

Zero chance he signs w/a big market club for 15M per.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Teams with disposable monies will overpay for a guy on the young side of 30.

Someone will lock him in through age 35/36. At 18-20 million per.

He's 27, has been playing on a SHIT roster with SHIT protection. Good D, switch hitter who can actually switch hit.

Zero chance he signs w/a big market club for 15M per.

Teams with disposable income aren’t going just hand 18 million at 35 they want him cheap for the next 2 seasons

 

[Empoleon8771]

Teams with disposable monies will overpay for a guy on the young side of 30.

Someone will lock him in through age 35/36. At 18-20 million per.

He's 27, has been playing on a SHIT roster with SHIT protection. Good D, switch hitter who can actually switch hit.

Zero chance he signs w/a big market club for 15M per.

The issue is that there's a massive valuation difference between a guy with good defense in LF vs a guy who can play CF. I have serious doubts that Reynolds is still going to be in CF at age 30.

The only non-CF OFers making more than $20 million right now are Harper, Betts and Yelich. Reynolds' peak was nowhere even close to the peaks of those guys. If Reynolds can't stick in CF or can't put together a MVP caliber season in the next 3 years, he's probably only getting a contract similar to Marcell Ozuna in UFA (4 years, $65 million).

Marte got 4 years and $78 million as a UFA and he was still playing CF with okay defensive metrics and terrific batting results. In his 3 years before signing with the Mets, he had a slash line of .298/.358/.472 with a 122 OPS+, -0.7 dWAR in CF (which isn't great but is passable) and 9.2 WAR overall in 313 games. If Reynolds repeats what he did last year for the next 3 years, it will be the same batting output as Marte but with substantially worse defense in CF.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think the main scenario where Reynolds would get an extension is if a team that typically watches its payroll trades for him and takes something of a calculated risk -- maybe the Marlins, for example. Any team with a big payroll could simply just take the cheap-as-possible premium production years and then decide after or near the very end if they wanted to make a big investment.

I don't want to push too hard on this skepticism about Reynolds and get the many viable criticisms of the Pirates totally lost in the shuffle. Namely:

1) If Reynolds was always going to be traded, then there's a very good argument that it's mismanagement and too late. The only real caveat for this is if the offer they made was truly a pretty solid, market value one and things broke off. I'm not all the way there on the offer without getting the actual details leaked (and it stands to reason that the Pirates leaked this stuff about it being the highest offer ever for the team, but without actual details... something must be up in terms of some advantageous team option tacked on, or a lack of actual guaranteed money, or something else).

2) This one is still live, but if there was money to even make a bad extension offer to Reynolds, for like only 65M guaranteed or something, then there should be money to easily and quickly move to Quintana or Benintendi. It's viable to question whether or not either would want to come here, but there should be enough money to bid competitively.

3) Similarly and obviously, there can be a pivot to extend Cruz, and at least get another core player solidified.

I think #2 and #3 can still be something that happens over the next little bit, or even into 2023 before the season with Cruz, but they are both examples of what can be possible even if we make the totally unwarranted assumption that the Pirates made a great offer to Reynolds and were surprisingly rebuffed. Cherington can't just throw his hands up wait around -- if he's going to just keep Reynolds until he's blown away with a mega-offer, that's fine, but he needs to move and further improve the 2023 team in that case. And if that doesn't materialize, then he needs to pivot attention away from Reynolds and this whole mess by getting Cruz inked to something that makes him side-by-side with Hayes before asking for more (again, unwarranted) patience from fans.