OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Yeah, Miller would probably be another one alongside Moreno, Leiter, and Volpe who is enough to headline. Having it be a pitcher worries me some, and trading with the Dodgers is also a bit worrisome to me even if I like a lot of their guys on paper.

Moreno and Volpe are the two most slam dunk headliners that seem to fit the steep ask we've been making. I don't want to fixate on Moreno and admit that another catcher would raise questions, but it's kind of a perfect storm with Toronto looking to win now, being a bit handcuffed in terms of their payroll, and already shopping one of their catchers for an upgrade, even if it seems likely that they would prefer to move Jansen.

Internally, it probably falls apart for a few reasons. I don't think Davis would respond well to being told he's a 1B/DH, even if for example it accelerated his MLB debut to this May or June. It would also probably mean that either Moreno or Endy starts as the 1B backup to whichever catcher we bring in and/or perhaps that we just have Endy become mostly a utility player. I think it just gets too messy when trying to game out how it would work, since with good health and reasonable performance, all three of the catcher prospects could be ready for regular MLB time by mid-June.
 
Being mad at a player for wanting to be on a winning team is so strange to me.

What does Bryan Reynolds owe the Pirates for being the team to draft him? Jack shit. He only has so many years to play and if his goal is to win championships he'd be a madman to sign here.
The pirates didn’t draft him but he is going anywhere for 2 years and doesn’t even get to FA until 2026 so who cares about wanting to be a on a winning team.
 
I think the Reynolds trade that makes the most sense to me is something around Reynolds to LA for Bobby Miller. LA obviously lost Bellinger by non-tendering him and the options for CF are pretty limited once Judge signs elsewhere. They are very deep in young pitching, with Miller being the headliner.

If you could get Miller as a top prospect and May as a young MLB reclamation project, you have a nice basis for a trade with the Dodgers. Go for those two plus one of Busch or Pages and that seems like a decent start.

Oh yeah.

If Reynolds is gone and we get no one expensive coming back, we should be in on Bellinger period. No excuse not to be.
 
Interesting, Jays LHP Tiedemann might have more hype than I realized, as the MLBTR chat host tonight just suggested he's probably nearly untouchable. I remember hearing rumblings about impressive showings but otherwise don't know much.

My biggest worry is that this news stalls whatever minor chance we had to keep making improvements for 2023 and actually step up with a multi-year deal. Gibson is off the market now and it just feels like we might be in limbo while rumors start swirling. We've trimmed the 40-man down to 38, and while action for the sake of action in the offseason isn't something to root for, I'm kind of at the point where I will be really frustrated if we just slow roll it through the next several weeks with very little change on the other end of it.
 
Wow, even Dejan, the biggest apologist around other than maybe Mackey or Empoleon, with quite the scathing article. Apparently not behind the paywall.


You must not get any of his baseball stuff - Dejan's been trying to engineer a fan rebellion to force the Nutting's to sell for months now.
 
You must not get any of his baseball stuff - Dejan's been trying to engineer a fan rebellion to force the Nutting's to sell for months now.
Which is redundant since Cuban already said if he owned the team he would operate the same way. New ownership isn’t going to just spend lavishly
 
Which is redundant since Cuban already said if he owned the team he would operate the same way. New ownership isn’t going to just spend lavishly


you can talk to your blue in the face to the Nutting Sucks I wish he would sell to __________________ Fill in the Blank & they still won't learn no one is buy the Pirates & losing their Ass after spending Gazillion $

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you can talk to your blue in the face to the Nutting Sucks I wish he would sell to __________________ Fill in the Blank crowd & they still won't learn no one is buy the Pirates & losing their Ass after spending Gazillion $
[/QUOTE]
 
You must not get any of his baseball stuff - Dejan's been trying to engineer a fan rebellion to force the Nutting's to sell for months now.
That’s not really correct. It’s hard to keep track as he flip flops all the time on this issue but while he has flipped to start bashing Cherington of late, this is the first time I can recall when he blamed Nutting so directly. Normally it was stuff like “Nutting needs to hire better people” or things like that.

Regardless, it’ll be interesting to see how people react to this. My guess is that it won’t change much - people who make excuses for the organization will continue to do so and those who bash it will use this as evidence in support - and honestly from a long term perspective this is probably what should have happened. Contrary to what some have suggested, this team is still at least a couple of years away from being competitive and Reynolds was unlikely to be here when they actually get good (if they get good). It’s just going to lead to a 5th straight season of 90+ losses (or a pace for it since 2020 was abbreviated) this year and stuff like that kills interest for all but the most diehards.
 
You must not get any of his baseball stuff - Dejan's been trying to engineer a fan rebellion to force the Nutting's to sell for months now.
The absolute size of Dejan's ego to suggest that BC started spending money after DK's article last week. I cannot stand the jagoff and cannot wait for his site to finally go under, crushed by that very ego.
 
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you can talk to your blue in the face to the Nutting Sucks I wish he would sell to __________________ Fill in the Blank crowd & they still won't learn no one is buy the Pirates & losing their Ass after spending Gazillion $
[/QUOTE]
Exactly now do I think they should use the 30 million each team got from the Disney sale to improve the major league product yes.
There’s a reason why teams like Cincinnati fought so hard for playoff expansion since if your spending 100 million on payroll you need to see a ROI
 
I find it easier to believe that Reynolds' camp has said nothing and this whole thing was from BC in order to drum up maximum interest than to think that it's about Reynolds wanting to be traded to a contender. It's not like he's a long-time veteran who only has another season or two left before he will have to retire. Reynolds has also never struck me as someone who cares about that stuff too much -- in fact, I don't think it takes a lot of imagination to see that with the emphasis on clubhouse veterans brought in on one year deals.

It's possible that Reynolds could have stepped up as a leader of this team by signing an extension. Until we know the shape of that potential extension in more detail, I don't want to commit too strongly to one opinion, but it's likely the case that Reynolds feels like he's worth more money and even if the contract were "reasonable" by the standards of gaming out how much the team control puts him at a disadvantage, he's entitled to try and get as much as he wants.

But fundamentally, what's most in his interest is making the maximum amount of money that he can. It is possible that he's come to hate the organization or something, but the timing for that would be a little bit weird in terms of the minor improvements and chatter about continued additions. If his general situation or wanting to win were the primary motivator, then he'd have a bit more of a leg to stand on if he came out with this in January or February after Quintana and all the pitchers, Benintendi etc etc all signed with other teams.

I think it's purely money-driven or it's just that BC is basically committed to trading him anyways and so pulled this all as a ruse right before the meetings. I'm willing to be talked down from the conspiratorial angle, but BC has no real tie to him and could very well see a trade as selling high. If the front office thinks that Reynolds isn't a CF, then I think there's a baseball-driven argument that trading him sooner rather than later is a smart move. There's no full comparison because the team itself has been trash and there's never been sustained commitment to even modest spending, but it's not entirely dissimilar to the decisions that teams like the Brewers and Rays make.

This reply is now getting typically long and meandering, but the final thing I'd reiterate is that whether it's conspiracy from BC or not, I think there's a stronger baseball-driven criticism that a trade now is a strategic blunder given all the nonaction in recent years and likelihood that you get more last winter. I don't really think much of Reynolds himself at this point, but putting that to one side, I also am pretty skeptical and worried that BC will fumble the bag on the return. The only way he'd come out of this looking like it was entirely and fully a problem with Reynolds is if it comes out that the extension offer was something truly and solidly market value given the circumstances, i.e., something like 7 years, 100-110M or so. I highly doubt that's what the offer was. Most I can see is that we went beyond Hayes' total dollars but just for 5 years or something, which from Reynolds' perspective likely is a total impasse, because even though it guarantees a good bit, he might prefer to take his chances on the open market at age-30 over a shorter extension that just buys out 2 FA years.
 

IMO there's not really much here in Mackey's analysis, but he does seem to suggest at the end that term is the sticking point for Reynolds. Basically if it's 5/80M, then Reynolds might rightly be worried that at the end of that deal, he's not getting any kind of payday. If we assume he earns 30M in his remaining team control years, then an open market deal that is 100-120 gives him 130-150 vs. 80M and then maybe a decentish contract if everything goes well where he makes 40M, which would just be a total of 120M.

That's a decent enough gap and it's just back of the napkin math. And perhaps there's some other kind of wrinkle like the Pirates only being willing to go to that 80M range if Reynolds would agree to a 6th year club option at a friendlier dollar price. Just spitballing, but that would be enough to broaden the gap between potential earnings from something like 10-30M to more like 20-40M or more, which is even more significant.

I do think from Reynolds' perspective, there's a world where taking the 80M guarantee could make sense. His worst case scenario is 30M team control years here or elsewhere, but then some injury or completely tanked performance that only gets him less term and maybe ultimately the 80M figure over the bulk of his remaining career. There's also at least some possibility that the market doesn't manifest, so he gets 30M in team control and then he gets 50-60M in a free agent deal, and maybe another decent contract after that, for a total that still makes it better to turn down 80M guaranteed but requires a continual grind.

I don't think it's straightforward to game out what he will make because I think if teams look at him and see a solid all-around corner OF, he's still very valuable but not quite on the level of 100M+ contracts. Reynolds' has been better, but it's not all that different from a profile like Benintendi, who is hitting the open market at a younger age. Reynolds doesn't quite strike me as exactly similar to Nimmo, and so much hangs on whether he's an average to plus CF.

I think what makes him most valuable is 3 years of likely premium output at an extremely cheap rate, not the long-term. That's why I don't really think that this news changes his value at all. I worry about BC fumbling the bag, but I think Reynolds will be gone sooner rather than later. I think it's more than 50/50 that it happens at the meetings.
 
You must not get any of his baseball stuff - Dejan's been trying to engineer a fan rebellion to force the Nutting's to sell for months now.

It hasn't been months, it's been years.

DK has no sources and his ego makes him want to be a part of every story. It's absolutely hilarious for someone to mention him as a legitimate source or act like he's a Pirates apologist.
 
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I never said I was mad at him. I'd tell him to pound sand with his trade request. Also, the Pirates didn't draft Reynolds.

Bryan Reynolds owes the Pirates 7 years of service, which is what they have his rights for as stipulated by the CBA. What he wants is frankly irrelevant of that fact. There is not "he can just not sign her", he is literally obligated to play for the Pirates.

The MLB is arguably the most restrictive league for player movement, especially for guys decently early in their career. The only way Reynolds leaves is if the Pirates let him leave. If it's a money thing where Reynolds just wants to secure the bag, I understand it entirely. But being mad about not winning? Sorry, you'll get traded when it's convenient for the team. Mad about that? Blame your MLBPA reps.
Lol… yeah, how dare a player want to go and play for a team that actually puts effort into putting a winning product on the field. Yeah, Bryan Reynolds is definitely the bad guy because he wants to win instead of signing up for 7 more years of suck
 
Lol… yeah, how dare a player want to go and play for a team that actually puts effort into putting a winning product on the field. Yeah, Bryan Reynolds is definitely the bad guy because he wants to win instead of signing up for 7 more years of suck

I never said he was the bad guy. I'm saying he can pound sand with his trade request.

You seemingly don't understand the economics of baseball. The Pirates have full control over Reynolds. If he wants to go to a winning team when he still has 3 years of control left, he can go wait those 3 years or wait until it's convenient for the Pirates.
 
DK has no sources and his ego makes him want to be a part of every story. It's absolutely hilarious for someone to mention him as a legitimate source or act like he's a Pirates apologist.
DK is very influential as a thought leader in Pittsburgh sports though.

He's a flawed person and I don't subscribe to his website, but the guy built a Pittsburgh version of "The Athletic." I'm not gonna knock it.
The Pirates had a disaster season in 2022 and underperformed post 2021 expectations by 10 wins. This was largely due to failures of the general manager. It also pushed their timeline of contention and trying to actually compete out by 1 year. This doesn't work out well for Reynolds.

At the same time, you're right. Baseball's ridiculous service time rules...which the players had a lockout over but ultimately caved...make it so that Reynolds, a good but not great player, won't see a chance at a big payday until he is 31. At which point the big payday may disappear because his level may drop especially defensively. I don't blame Boras at all for trying to steer his clients in this situation to teams that will pre-pay and give a generous extension before Free Agency. Not at all.
 
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DK is very influential as a thought leader in Pittsburgh sports though.

He's a flawed person and I don't subscribe to his website, but the guy built a Pittsburgh version of "The Athletic." I'm not gonna knock it.
The Pirates had a disaster season in 2022 and underperformed post 2021 expectations by 10 wins. This was largely due to failures of the general manager. It also pushed their timeline of contention and trying to actually compete out by 1 year. This doesn't work out well for Reynolds.

At the same time, you're right. Baseball's ridiculous service time rules...which the players had a lockout over but ultimately caved...make it so that Reynolds, a good but not great player, won't see a chance at a big payday until he is 31. At which point the big payday may disappear because his level may drop especially defensively. I don't blame Boras at all for trying to steer his clients in this situation to teams that will pre-pay and give a generous extension before Free Agency. Not at all.

 

Maybe when he first started the site. Since then, he's burned every bridge and lost all his "top" writers. I say "Top" because Pittsburgh sports media is a very low bar. He's burned a ton of good will with his fans with his content choices and constantly bickering with people on Twitter. In short, he's gone full Madden. Never go full Madden.
 
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Here's a rough sketch of as many suitors as I can think, organized into tiers based primarily on the caveat that any deal should be centered around a top prospect with a likely 2023 debut timeframe, or a bit of experience under their belt. It's in no particular order besides the tiers, as I'm just trying to run through teams and jam everything I can into one post for reference later.

Tier 1

Toronto: They stand out due to fit and willingness to deal Moreno, who is pretty comfortably a top-10 prospect. The problem is secondary pieces and depth, including on the MLB roster. It sounds like Tiedemann has too much hype to be a secondary piece in a dead headlines by Moreno.
Deal: Moreno, Gurriel, White, and prospect RHP Yosver Zulueta
Bonus wildcard: Moreno, Tiedemann, and Zulueta along with Ryu + absorbing his entire salary (lol, 20M)

Yankees: The fit is there in spades and they have the headliner and depth, along with maybe some urgency to switch things up. Free agency situations in terms of Judge and the shortstops loom large both in general and with respect to what they might offer, particularly Volpe, who is on the same level as Moreno. They've reserved him for too long, so I see that as the sticking point and would hesitate to go for a package headlined by Dominguez.
Deal: Volpe, OF prospect Everson Pereira, RHP prospect Randy Vasquez, throw-in MIRP Mitch Spence
Bonus wildcard: Dominguez, Oswaldo Cabrera, Pereira, and Vasquez -- the idea being that Cabrera is immediate help as a utility player, really popped towards the end of the year but might have been playing over his head

Dodgers: The fit is there along with the willingness to make big moves, but it's the headliner I'm not sure about. Cartaya would be off limits and he's the closest to Moreno/Volpe. It's more of a combo quantity/quality thing, and personally I really don't like the potential of a Dodgers deal, because if they'd give up Miller, Busch, and two more, I'd be worried.

Rangers: Haven't seen them in any rumors, but there's fit and also timing, along with prospect capital. I think they could be a real dark horse to do something like make this trade and then also either pull off a Judge signing or get Rodon to be in the rotation with deGrom.
Deal: Leiter, Josh Smith, and two more

Tier 2

Orioles: This is the biggest wildcard of all, but the Orioles are in win-now mode and have a totally stacked system. Reynolds might be an opportunity for them to make an impact this offseason, especially if they have the flexibility to do something like use prospect capital for Reynolds and then make a reasonably big splash with an FA signing. The trickier thing is the headliner, because you figure that Henderson and Rodriguez would be off limits. It might come down to how high we'd be on Cowser, or if a 1a and 1b of Cowser and Hall are too much for Baltimore.

Mariners, Astros, Braves: Lumping these three together because I am droning on for too long already and also because they share something in common: systems aren't as deep or strong, and hence presumably deals that would be anchored by young MLB talent. Speculatively, I'd rate them in the order I have them listed here, as I'd figure that it's the young pitchers who would be in the mix for the former two and Vaughn Grissom for the Braves. Not going to game out any deals, but Kirby with Kelenic might be the most realistic type of deal in the bunch. I don't really see it with these teams, honestly.

Marlins: They have wanted Reynolds for some time and probably could be lumped into the group that's above this one. They do have a headliner in Eury Perez but he's going to be untouchable. They have pitching depth, which makes for an interesting possibility -- in theory, if you turned Reynolds into two starters with lots of control and decent upside, and then also were willing to spend on a free agent like Benintendi, it might be an interesting move, but I question the fit and the risk of SPs as the heart of a deal for health reasons. That said, I'll pitch a deal here.
Deal: Rogers, Cabrera, Khalil Watson, and a throw-in

Tier 3

Red Sox: This is a bit unfair to them because in terms of the criteria that I started with, they clearly have an option in Mayer. And in some sense, if you could get Mayer at the start of a competitive package, you have to think about it even if Mayer is still further away. I put them here because I just don't think there's any fit. If Mayer isn't on the table then there's nothing even worth talking about.

Padres: They just don't really have the prospect impact or depth after emptying it out last year.


Ok, that's way more than I intended to go into with this, so a little uneven. There could certainly be some others who would be in the mix, and maybe we'll get some more specific rumors as the winter meetings really get underway.
 
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I think the move that makes the most sense to me is Reynolds to the Dodgers for Miller and Pages, possibly with another asset or two thrown the Pirates way. Miller gives them another great SP prospect and Pages projects as a hard hitting RFer. Both played mostly in AA last year, so they shouldn't be too far off from the majors.

Miller is ranked #30 overall on FG while Pages is #76. Throw in 1 or 2 smaller supplemental pieces and I think that's a deal that could work for both sides.
 
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I told you all that Reynolds value was much higher than people claimed it to be ($ wise). I said he would need a contract well into the 100 millions range. This is squarely on Nutting and MLB. The league has set up a handful of teams that act as feeders to the big market clubs. The Pirates exist to benefit the big boys. Those teams can't draft/sign ALL the talent so a team like Pittsburgh exists, to give away talent for pennies on the dollar.

This is a coordinated effort to rig the league in favor of a handful of teams/markets. It's beyond clear that MLB is broken and has no intention of trying to create an environment where every team can compete.

So, obviously be preparred for a subpar return because we didn't deal him at the peak value. Teams know he wants out, is coming off a good but not great year. Given the fact we knew this exact situation would happen, not dealing him after the big 2021 year smacks of deliberate sabatoge. There was absolutely no way he was re-signing here. I've been saying it for years and people just scoffed. People said he could be had for under 100M. It's just utter stupidity at this point w/most.

Do we have a shitload of young talent on the way? Yep.

Will most of them be gone via subpar development or trade within the next 5 years? Yep.

I mean this franchise kept Shelton and Haines after their stellar work but claim to be putting a foot forward in 2023?
 
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