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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Garcia is a solid stabilizer and I like the talk of an option. That's a supplemental win-now and next year move which was much needed. Definitely is something that would look better in the context of other, bigger moves that back up what BC has been saying, but it's good to have it checked off.

I don't really think Bellinger is going to be an option. If the team was closer, then it's worth the risk (not that it'd ever happen), but I think his market is going to be a pure upside play for WC-type teams or a contender who misses the boat on money allocated elsewhere. I am a little skeptical he gets 20M, but I could see a base salary somewhere in the teens with escalators.

Granted, the one-year contract at basically whatever dollar cost would make him pretty appealing at the deadline if he returned to close to MVP form, but I just don't see it. For me, both Gallo and Conforto would be cheaper options for basically the same thing, especially Gallo at this point. Maybe Gallo would bite on a deal that's something like 1 year with benchmarks/escalators and a team option for year 2. That could be an interesting way to not wager a ton of money into the future but still get some upside. If we're going to entertain 10-15M type deals, though, I'd much rather just try to chase Benintendi for the stability.


As for Reynolds, he doesn't have an ounce of leverage. If he sits out, he screws himself incredibly badly (no one would ever sit out). If he sulks and performs badly, he starts to raise questions about what kind of contract he can get. There are likely 10-15 teams who would at least be interested in him, and that isn't gonna change much even when Judge, Nimmo, Benintendi, and Haniger all sign.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
The "the Pirates won't get anything good for Reynolds" take is moronically stupid, no matter how many times people post it.

1. The OF market this year is pretty weak, with only Judge and Nimmo as guys on or above Reynolds level. The next level of guys after Reynolds are Benintendi (who's also good) and a bunch of scraps. You really think someone would rather sign Mitch Haniger or Michael Conforto over trading for Reynolds? Of course not.
2. Reynolds is still under team control for 3 more years. This take of "the Pirates have no leverage" is factually incorrect, they can hold onto him for as long as they want. This is not a situation where a guy will walk if you don't trade him, the Pirates have 3 years to trade him. Reynolds wanting out is completely irrelevant of that because of the MLB service time rules. Until he hits 7 years of service, he belongs to the Pirates. Period. There is no outlet for that.
3. You see top prospects traded for win-now pieces regularly today. Castillo, who only had 1 year of arbitration left, brought back a top-15 prospect in Marte. Soto brought back an absolute fortune (Hassell III, Gore, Wood and Abrams) even though he wasn't going to sign an extension with the Nationals.

My expectation for a Reynolds trade is either one top-50 prospect, one top-100 prospect and some minor pieces or one top-50 prospect, two 45+ FV prospects who may be top-100 prospects in the near future and some minor pieces. My expectations for a Reynolds trade would be:

1. Reynolds to the Yankees for Dominguez, Peiera, Gomez and some minor pieces.
2. Reynolds to the Dodgers for Miller, Pages and some minor pieces.
3. Reynolds to the Giants for Matos, Ramos, Bednar and some minor pieces.
Click to expand...

"Won't get anything good" is not what I said or asserted. That's you being hyperbolic. Yawn,

I said they won't get a Dominguez level prospect. They're not getting a top prospect in a system. Simply will not happen because players of Reynolds ability don't fetch that, certainly not AFTER they demand a trade. Best case is a #3/4 type from a system. That's absolute best case.

There is literally 0% chance they get a top 50 AND another top 100 prospect in all of baseball as the centerpiece. That shipped sailed after he did what he did in 2022.

Gerrit Cole had more value when he was traded than Reynolds does now and you saw what we got for him. And young SP with the pedigree Cole had is far more valuable than a position player. There is no argument to the contrary.

Gabe Moreno? Volpe? Dominguez? Just stop. That's EA Sports level nonsense.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
Granted, the one-year contract at basically whatever dollar cost would make him pretty appealing at the deadline if he returned to close to MVP form, but I just don't see it. For me, both Gallo and Conforto would be cheaper options for basically the same thing, especially Gallo at this point. Maybe Gallo would bite on a deal that's something like 1 year with benchmarks/escalators and a team option for year 2. That could be an interesting way to not wager a ton of money into the future but still get some upside. If we're going to entertain 10-15M type deals, though, I'd much rather just try to chase Benintendi for the stability.
Click to expand...

I think the only reason I'd choose Bellinger over those guys is because I'd be acquiring Bellinger to play CF, while I'm not sure if the other two are viable CF options. I think Galllo is much more likely to be that than Conforto.

Gallo's tough to evaluate, he has 2 gold gloves but I believe those were in RF, not CF.

ImporterExporter said:
"Won't get anything good" is not what I said or asserted. That's you being hyperbolic. Yawn,

I said they won't get a Dominguez level prospect. They're not getting a top prospect in a system. Simply will not happen because players of Reynolds ability don't fetch that, certainly not AFTER they demand a trade. Best case is a #3/4 type from a system. That's absolute best case.

There is literally 0% chance they get a top 50 AND another top 100 prospect in all of baseball as the centerpiece. That shipped sailed after he did what he did in 2022.

Gerrit Cole had more value when he was traded than Reynolds does now and you saw what we got for him. And young SP with the pedigree Cole had is far more valuable than a position player. There is no argument to the contrary.

Gabe Moreno? Volpe? Dominguez? Just stop. That's EA Sports level nonsense.
Click to expand...

What a dumb comparison. The Pirates got what they got for Cole because they were targeting win-now pieces to try and maintain a mediocre team.

How you think that's a more appropriate comparison than Castillo, who brought back a top-15 prospect, or Soto, who brought back a literal fortune of assets, is just dumb.
 
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ImporterExporter said:
"Won't get anything good" is not what I said or asserted. That's you being hyperbolic. Yawn,

I said they won't get a Dominguez level prospect. They're not getting a top prospect in a system. Simply will not happen because players of Reynolds ability don't fetch that, certainly not AFTER they demand a trade. Best case is a #3/4 type from a system. That's absolute best case.

There is literally 0% chance they get a top 50 AND another top 100 prospect in all of baseball as the centerpiece. That shipped sailed after he did what he did in 2022.

Gerrit Cole had more value when he was traded than Reynolds does now and you saw what we got for him. And young SP with the pedigree Cole had is far more valuable than a position player. There is no argument to the contrary.

Gabe Moreno? Volpe? Dominguez? Just stop. That's EA Sports level nonsense.
Click to expand...

For a guy who has died on the hills of "Jack Johnson is good" and "Olli Maatta is a top 4 defenseman" and "KeBryan Hayes is a star," Empoleon is very quick to throw around personal attacks and hyperbole. Seldom correct but by God never mistaken.

They'll do ok in the trade but they won't get elite prospects who are close to the majors. They may be able to pull some higher ceiling prospects who are years away, but given the pressure they are suddenly apparently feeling to win now, I could very much see a return along the lines of what Huntington used to get - 3 or 4 mid-level prospects at AA or AAA.

Empoleon8771 said:
What a dumb comparison. The Pirates got what they got for Cole because they were targeting win-now pieces to try and maintain a mediocre team.

How you think that's a more appropriate comparison than Castillo, who brought back a top-15 prospect, or Soto, who brought back a literal fortune of assets, is just dumb.
Click to expand...

Yes, comparing Reynolds' potential trade return to what Juan Soto brought is a constructive endeavor.
 
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The Pirates are in agreement on a one-year deal with right-handed pitcher Vince Velasquez, per
@kileymcd Bargain Basement Tuesday ??
 
Empoleon8771 said:
I think the only reason I'd choose Bellinger over those guys is because I'd be acquiring Bellinger to play CF, while I'm not sure if the other two are viable CF options. I think Galllo is much more likely to be that than Conforto.

Gallo's tough to evaluate, he has 2 gold gloves but I believe those were in RF, not CF.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I agree with you in this sense. Bellinger would be a fit, but both of those other guys are more corner options. I think that Bellinger is actually going to get a surprising amount of money because MLB teams essentially print money and would not look at a one-year deal as anything to worry about. It's pure risk/reward, and so as long as the team can afford to take the risk, there will be a bidding war and a decent pillow contract for him to establish value.

My guess over what Boras does is that his higher profile guys will sign faster, and then Bellinger might end up waiting things out a while.

Conforto is really hard to ballpark because he had the year off and might be rusty. I like him as a player, but the fit is hard to see. Gallo is the only one who I think might be in the mix, because his profile isn't quite as appealing. He kinda is what he is, and you hope he's able to consistently be a machine for three true outcomes rather than have the long cold spells.
 
In 2022, there were 7 top-100 prospects traded at the deadline. Soto brought back 3 of them (Abrams, Hassell III and Wood, Abrams was super high), Montas brought back 2 (Waldichuk and Medina), Castillo brought back 1 super high prospect (Marte) and Marsh brought back 1 (O'Hoppe).

In 2021, there were 8 top-100 prospects traded at the deadline. Scherzer brought back 2 of them (Gray and Ruiz, Gray was super high), Berrios brought back 2 of them (Woods Richardson and Martin), Kimbrel brought back 1 super high prospect (Madrigal), Rizzo brought back 1 of them (Alcantara) and Gallo brought back one of them (Duran).

If you seriously think 3 years of Reynolds can't bring back more than a freaking rental reliever Craig Kimbrel brought back, I don't know what to tell you.
 
Meh reaction from me on this one. I kinda like Velasquez as a cheaper version of the way the Gibson rumor was talked about, i.e., a second starter for depth purposes and not the primary SP move. I wonder if it's actually more of a move for a swingman or a reliever, as he primarily pitched out of the bullpen last year.

Ok with competition for a backend role and swingman/opener/MIRP as a backup role, but would be easier to say that if/once a second SP is signed, especially if that were Quintana, Stripling, even Wacha or Manaea are ok upside plays IMO.
 
DJ Spinoza said:
Meh reaction from me on this one. I kinda like Velasquez as a cheaper version of the way the Gibson rumor was talked about, i.e., a second starter for depth purposes and not the primary SP move. I wonder if it's actually more of a move for a swingman or a reliever, as he primarily pitched out of the bullpen last year.

Ok with competition for a backend role and swingman/opener/MIRP as a backup role, but would be easier to say that if/once a second SP is signed, especially if that were Quintana, Stripling, even Wacha or Manaea are ok upside plays IMO.
Click to expand...

I think that Vasquez is just that, a cheaper version of Gibson. If he's their only SP addition, I'm going to be upset, but I'm expecting that move to come with another corresponding move of adding another SP. Until I see Quintana sign elsewhere, I'm expecting them to bring him back. Cherington has said non-stop that he wanted to add multiple starting pitchers, I still think that's the case.

The interesting thing to note is that the Pirates are now at a full 40 man roster, so something has to give for them to be able to sign anyone else.
 
I think there's still a loophole where the moves won't need to be reflected on the 40-man until a certain amount of time after the physicals are ok'd and they are formally announced, so it's still possible for both signings and an addition in the Rule 5 tomorrow.

Vilade, Mitchell, CSN, Swaggerty, and perhaps Marcano could all be potential current 40-man spots that could be opened with DFAs. There are some I wouldn't DFA, but to me that seems to be the group. There are also at least some pitchers, a la Wilson, but I see the infield group as pretty safe. The only possibility would be if we've soured on Castillo or Castro and don't think they'd be picked up, but I wouldn't risk it with Castro and Castillo is having a terrific winter so far.

Something will at least have to give for 1, probably 2 catchers, even if one of them is Delay who isn't currently on. I would guess we'll at least take a Rule 5 guy, but maybe not now that we have potentially added 2 bullpen type pitchers.

I am not wild about the one year deals in each instance, but I think for basically all of them, the idea is to supplement the better players by making improvements in positions where no one will be blocked and the production was awful. 1B, DH, and generally innings all seem to check those boxes. It all doesn't do anything to truly move the needle, and even though a Quintana or Benintendi signing would also not move it too much, at least then the chase for .500 + who knows would be a little more palatable, since there'd be one player who would still for sure be around for 2024.
 
Endy Rodriguez has no chance to make the opening day roster. Let that sink in. They cite development yet other teams have absolutely rolled the dice with top prospects despite not having hundreds of upper minor AB's/games. There are numerous examples of this w/winning franchises.

This is the exact same bullshit we saw with Cruz last year. Endy could hit the cover off AAA and he will not see a full time call up until mid June and likely early July. He could produce Babe Ruth like #'s and he'll languish in Indy because "he's not ready".

We just signed another absolute bum, pure hope reclamation project in Velasquez. If we couldn't pay for Gibson, we're not paying for Quintana. We kept the entire coaching staff that has seen 200+ losses the past 2 years.

What world are you people living in?
 
ImporterExporter said:
Endy Rodriguez has no chance to make the opening day roster. Let that sink in. They cite development yet other teams have absolutely rolled the dice with top prospects despite not having hundreds of upper minor AB's/games. There are numerous examples of this w/winning franchises.

This is the exact same bullshit we saw with Cruz last year. Endy could hit the cover off AAA and he will not see a full time call up until mid June and likely early July. He could produce Babe Ruth like #'s and he'll languish in Indy because "he's not ready".

We just signed another absolute bum, pure hope reclamation project in Velasquez. If we couldn't pay for Gibson, we're not paying for Quintana. We kept the entire coaching staff that has seen 200+ losses the past 2 years.

What world are you people living in?
Click to expand...
Hopefully the world free from people like you?
 
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O man, It's been a while since I had to brush off the old Ignore button.

Sounds like the Mariners are in on Reynolds. Saw a tweet earlier from Kody Duncna saying that Matt Brash, Jared kelenic, Harry Ford, and Emerson Hancock are names being thrown around there. I believe this is the first leak of a potential package
 
Brash, Hancock, Ford and Kelenic for Reynolds wouldn't be a terrible package, but it's also not a package that particularly excites me. Brash graduated from the Mariners prospect pool while being about the 70th rated prospect on Fangraphs and Ford seems like a guy who will be ascending into the top-100 prospects sooner than later. I think Hancock was also a top-100 guy in the past, but he has fallen off a bit due to injuries.

But more importantly, I don't know that Duncan is a legitimate source so I wouldn't really put too much stock into the claim.

It also seems like Duncan is just parroting what has been said in Seattle media:


 
IE is right, I don't think Duncan has any sources. He does sometimes seem to have people who are connected to prospects where he can break news, but iirc those names are the same ones that a Mariners exec or beat writer reported today. It was on some kind of Mariners twitter account but I don't have a link handy.

I don't think that would be an atrocious package, but it's the kind of package that I think you would want to wait on and ultimately maybe even wait until the deadline. Ford and Hancock are both solid enough, and Brash and Kelenic are wild cards. Brash would be a nice secondary piece to someone like Kirby, since he has big upside but reliever risk.

I do think Kelenic is a good buy low guy. His struggles haven't really made sense in relation to what he showed throughout the minors, and he's still young enough where something could fully click. But this is also the case with many guys who end up being busts. If the deal were those 4, it's right on the edge of quantity mixed with upside to be passable, but I'd actually pass. And I believe the Mariners chatter was that three of those guys would be involved.

If it were Kirby, Brash, and Kelenic, then I think that would be a pretty good way to get immediate help and some upside, enough so that I'd pull the trigger. But that same Mariners tweet was predicated on Kirby and Gilbert being off limits, which is what I'd want if I were a Mariners fan. I think the Mariners could probably afford to go with this package, but the only way it'd make sense on their end is if they are totally soured on Kelenic. Then it's using depth to get a premium player where they desperately need it: on offense.
 
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DJ Spinoza said:
IE is right, I don't think Duncan has any sources. He does sometimes seem to have people who are connected to prospects where he can break news, but iirc those names are the same ones that a Mariners exec or beat writer reported today. It was on some kind of Mariners twitter account but I don't have a link handy.

I don't think that would be an atrocious package, but it's the kind of package that I think you would want to wait on and ultimately maybe even wait until the deadline. Ford and Hancock are both solid enough, and Brash and Kelenic are wild cards. Brash would be a nice secondary piece to someone like Kirby, since he has big upside but reliever risk.

I do think Kelenic is a good buy low guy. His struggles haven't really made sense in relation to what he showed throughout the minors, and he's still young enough where something could fully click. But this is also the case with many guys who end up being busts. If the deal were those 4, it's right on the edge of quantity mixed with upside to be passable, but I'd actually pass. And I believe the Mariners chatter was that three of those guys would be involved.

If it were Kirby, Brash, and Kelenic, then I think that would be a pretty good way to get immediate help and some upside, enough so that I'd pull the trigger. But that same Mariners tweet was predicated on Kirby and Gilbert being off limits, which is what I'd want if I were a Mariners fan. I think the Mariners could probably afford to go with this package, but the only way it'd make sense on their end is if they are totally soured on Kelenic. Then it's using depth to get a premium player where they desperately need it: on offense.
Click to expand...

Just posted it above, I found it on the Mariners subreddit.
 
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The Rangers getting Heaney makes me think they are still a dark horse to try and get Judge. I think the smart money on Judge is either SF or NYY, but I think the Rangers still have something big up their sleeve and was thinking they'd chase Rodon to slot in behind deGrom. Heaney feels like a riskier but much cheaper option.

Anyways, when the dust settles, I think the Rangers could also be a dark horse for Reynolds. They are going aggressive in a big way, and they have the prospect talent and depth to pull it off. I don't think Seattle is a good fit for Reynolds, simply because them trading from their established younger pitching doesn't make a lot of sense, even if it's an organizational strength and thus fair to assume that they could replace Kirby pretty easily.

I expect we'll have to see how Judge and perhaps Nimmo shake out, because I think that the Yankees and Jays are two teams who could be pretty in need of Reynolds, which might change the equation a little bit.
 
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