Toronto (range 1-3): Strong regular season team for ages, have lost diddly squat that matters save perhaps being a year closer to irrelevance for Tavares, and are probably stronger for Bertuzzi/Domi/Knies vs Bunting. Would need a shocking injury catastrophe to miss out of the top 3 imo.
Then it gets tricky...
Tampa (range 1-4): Seems impossible they'd miss but where they fit in depends heavily on fitness and how much they care. I'm not sure Hedman is all he was. I'm not sure Vasilevskiy is comparatively all he was. Stamkos is at the age where decline can happen any season. If all three of those players hit walls, they might even be in trouble. I don't think all three will, but if one dips a bit more and the depth doesn't do fantastic, they'll be flirting with the wildcards. If all the stars are fine and guys like Eyssimont and Jeannot pick it up, they'll look great.
Boston (range 1-5): Yeah, I can see them missing. People point to their record breaking season as an impossible mark to fall from but we just saw Florida lose 30 points from one season to the next, and they weren't replacing both top six centres. Blackhawks lost 33, Kings lost 27, Sharks lost 38... and I get the reasons for confidence. Pasta is great. Lindholm and McAvoy are great. Ullmark and Swayman are great. It's possible Coyle and Zacha step up big, no one misses a beat, they're 1st again. It's possible Coyle and Zacha are weak links, that Marchand's decline continues, that they get a couple of key injuries, that the goalies get dragged down, and it all explodes... I mostly live in hope there, I think they're top 3, but I see a big range of possibility.
Ottawa (range 2-6): I have zero faith in my belief they'll be 4th as I have zero faith in Korpisalo, but I don't have a lot of faith in items about the teams below. I think Norris back and a full season of Chychrun are big boosts. I think Stutzle is a guy poised to keep growing. If I'm right about those things and wrong about Korpisalo, and if Sanderson keeps growing too and Pinto solidifies 3C, then yeah, 2 is in reach. If guys don't grow, if there's another big injury, if I'm right about Korpisalo, they'll miss.
Florida (2-5): Less of a range given how established that top six is, but their regular season goaltending volatility and blueline injuries look ugly to me. I think those issues are bad enough to put them at risk of missing again. I think that with a fair wind there and a full season from Barkov, they could do really well.
Buffalo (range 2-6): Think they're putting a lot on Devon Levi and that overall, the team didn't control play super well. Tons of things look great for them with Thompson, Dahlin, Cozens, and so on but I think they need to take another step defensively as well as hope Levi is everything he should be. If they do and he is, this will look foolish. If that doesn't happen, if the finishing regresses or they get an injury, I think they miss again. I'll point out they were the healthiest team in this division last season, that's a natural point of regression.
Detroit (3-8): Feel a distinct step behind. They've got NHL talent from top to bottom, but don't have a strong second wave behind Larkin and Seider, and their goaltending doesn't look all that. They need someone like Raymond or DeBrincat to explode and drive Copp's line to glory, as well as Edvinsson to step up. That gives them a shot at the playoffs imo. I think it's more likely they're out by the deadline.
Montreal (6-8): A giant mess that needs about six guys to step up to show the path to the light.
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