I think the Leafs are the safest bet to make the playoffs, but I can’t agree they are a sure thing.
Their additions overall lack discipline. They go their own way, tend to take bad penalties and break down defensively.
I though Samsonov was pretty good last year but historically he’s been anything but steady. I’m not bullish on the fallback options.
This is not a particularly fast team on paper; Id say that’s where the changes will be noticed most and something that could be exploited.
You have to wonder about the “team” focus. There’s not a lot of guys who have grown together and have been to war with each other. They’ve got older guys who are fading, or might be considered to be playing out the string, or, conversely, are comfortable. And their core is all thinking about their own contracts and that of the guy next to him. The team has a real mercenary feel and “me-first” could become an issue.
You wonder about the GM’s loyalty to the coach and to certain players and how players and staff will be angling to cement themselves in a new power structure.
I wouldn’t be holding 8 years of being good up as evidence there will be a 9th. Lot of team’s windows close before that time.
And that leads to final issue: the division is good. You aren’t going to get the gimmes you were getting before.
As much as you want to lean into their past, the Sabres and Sens are coming. They’ve got talent and hunger. As much as Tampa and Boston are aging, they’ve got talent and tradition. Florida has the divisions most successful team over the past 2 years. Detroit isnt sexy, but they’re deep. Look past any at your peril.
On paper, I’m picking the Leafs to make the playoffs. But they better be prepared to earn it. Unprepared or distracted in the Atlantic this year equals death.
I actually agree with you that Holl is better than Klingberg, but your argument still makes no sense because prior to acquiring ROR, Acciari and Schenn, they were already on pace for a 110+ point team. For what you believe to be true, you would have to think that the additions of Reaves, Klingberg, Knies, Domi and Bertuzzi are so much worse than the team from September-trade deadline last year that they drop from a 110+ point team to a ~95 point team, which is impossible to believe rationally.
Again, this is a team that is so historically elite in the regular season that they play at a 100+ point pace without Auston Matthews.