Predict the Atlantic Standings

[Pavels Dog]

I think the only locks in the Atlantic this year are Montreal and Detroit missing the playoffs.

Don't take this as me saying "chart = truth" or "detroit will make it", but I can't buy into an argument that Detroit is a lock to miss at this point:

 

[ricky0034]

Don't take this as me saying "chart = truth" or "detroit will make it", but I can't buy into an argument that Detroit is a lock to miss at this point:

I would think most people would pretty comfortably call Winnipeg not winning their division and finishing only 1 point from winning the President's trophy a lock though so pretty weird chart to use as a point against people calling things locks

 

[Pavels Dog]

I would think most people would pretty comfortably call Winnipeg not winning their division and finishing only 1 point from winning the President's trophy a lock though so pretty weird chart to use as a point against people calling things locks

Way to completely not read anything I said and miss the point by a mile

 

[Golden_Jet]

Way to completely not read anything I said and miss the point by a mile

Using a jfresh chart, to make a point, would be the first mistake.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Using a jfresh chart, to make a point, would be the first mistake.

Which NHL teams have improved the most this offseason? Rating all 32 teams

From most value added to least, rating each team based on whether they have more talent than they did at the start of the offseason.

theathletic.com

2nd most improved (numbers based)

https://thehockeynews.com/.amp/news/the-four-most-improved-nhl-teams-during-the-2023-off-season

Top 4 most improved (opinion piece)

Objectively they are improved, and they weren’t even a lock to miss the playoffs last season.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Which NHL teams have improved the most this offseason? Rating all 32 teams

From most value added to least, rating each team based on whether they have more talent than they did at the start of the offseason.

theathletic.com

2nd most improved (numbers based)

https://thehockeynews.com/.amp/news/the-four-most-improved-nhl-teams-during-the-2023-off-season

Top 4 most improved (opinion piece)

Objectively they are improved, and they weren’t even a lock to miss the playoffs last season.

Being improved doesn’t necessarily make you a playoff team, not to mention a month has passed since article written, lot of teams made other moves.

The end result is a team whose goal differential improves by 14, a number that wouldn’t be enough to put them into a playoff position,

Slowly and steadily the Red Wings are getting there. But even after this summer, it’s more than likely they still aren’t there yet. A little more patience is required.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Being improved doesn’t necessarily make you a playoff team, not to mention a month has passed since article written, lot of teams made other moves.

The end result is a team whose goal differential improves by 14, a number that wouldn’t be enough to put them into a playoff position,

Again though; not the point:

Don't take this as me saying "detroit will make it"

(and Detroit’s one of the teams that’s made additional improvements since then..)

 

[Golden_Jet]

Again though; not the point:

(and Detroit’s one of the teams that’s made additional improvements since then..)

You keep saying not the point to numerous posters lol, maybe your just doing a poor job at making it then.

 

[norrisnick]

You keep saying not the point to numerous posters lol, maybe your just doing a poor job at making it then.

Saying a team is not a lock to miss the playoffs is not saying the team is a lock to make the playoffs.

I'd say the only locks to miss in the east are Montreal and Philly because they're actively trying not to.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Again though; not the point:

(and Detroit’s one of the teams that’s made additional improvements since then..)

You posted a link, that said they haven’t done enough to make it, did you read the link, or just the headlines.

 

[WaW]

You keep talking about goaltending regressing to the mean while forgetting they had some of the worst shooting luck in the league last season. Panthers had some of the best offensive analytics in the NHL last season and scored nowhere near as well as they should have. They regress to the mean offensively and they can afford regression from their goaltending

You were ranked 21st in the league in team shooting percentage with career years from Tkachuk, Verhaeghe, and Montour.

This is nowhere near the same extreme as Buffalo's #32 ranked goaltending.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Using a jfresh chart, to make a point, would be the first mistake.

His charts get mocked a lot, but they at least come from a place of research. He shows you how he arrived at those percentiles, when calculating the subcategories. He also writes articles about players.
My experience on this board and my team board is that people's eye tests are far less reliable than charts. Those fans often shamelessly make biased takes, driven by emotions. A lot of people don't watch the games objectively when it comes to assessing players. They have their favorites before the puck is dropped on a given game. They look for anything that supports their favorites, and disregard things that the players they hate/don't give a crap about do well.
A lot of people aren't paying attention either. They just glaze over and wait for goals for or against.

Plus, JFresh is straight up more intelligent than a lot of people that post here. That has to count for something.
I don't see why we should trust the words of stupid people who watch the games over him. They don't have the brain power to come to the right conclusions.

 

[Pavels Dog]

You posted a link, that said they haven’t done enough to make it, did you read the link, or just the headlines.

That still isn't saying they're a lock to miss, pretty far from it tbh.

 

[JD1]

Which NHL teams have improved the most this offseason? Rating all 32 teams

From most value added to least, rating each team based on whether they have more talent than they did at the start of the offseason.

theathletic.com

2nd most improved (numbers based)

https://thehockeynews.com/.amp/news/the-four-most-improved-nhl-teams-during-the-2023-off-season

Top 4 most improved (opinion piece)

Objectively they are improved, and they weren’t even a lock to miss the playoffs last season.

I think they were a lock to miss last season also. Regardless. I wonder how that article might look today with the Sens having picked up Tarasenko?

I think the top 4 teams in the Atlantic have all lost a little but even with their improvements I don't think Detroit can hang with Ottawa or Buffalo.

As they did last year, they added some players on the wrong side of 30. I just don't see it. I don't see them being close.

Jfresh charts don't do much for me. Last February Detroit lost 12-3 on back to back nights against Ottawa. They were absolutely destroyed. Men. Boys. And Ottawa has gotten better

 

[Pavels Dog]

I think they were a lock to miss last season also.

They were in a playoff spot after 57 games, and had a 92 point pace. Calling them a lock to miss just feels like hindsight. I can rattle of 15 teams that I think are likely to miss the playoffs, including the Wings and Sens, but I wouldn't call more than 3 or 4 of them locks.

Jfresh charts don't do much for me. Last February Detroit lost 12-3 on back to back nights against Ottawa. They were absolutely destroyed. Men. Boys. And Ottawa has gotten better

Well, if we're talking about things that "don't do much for me", basing your prediction on a 2-game sample size isn't that valuable. Those games were horrible, yes, but the the 2 games before that Detroit decisively outplayed both NYR and Tampa. The truth about where they were as a team was somewhere in between those two extremes - and regardless they're not the same team next season.

 

[Ezekial]

Men and boys yet through 79 games of the season 1 point separated them.

I get it ottawa was the only team in the league with injuries.

 

[JD1]

They were in a playoff spot after 57 games, and had a 92 point pace. Calling them a lock to miss just feels like hindsight. I can rattle of 15 teams that I think are likely to miss the playoffs, including the Wings and Sens, but I wouldn't call more than 3 or 4 of them locks.


Well, if we're talking about things that "don't do much for me", basing your prediction on a 2-game sample size isn't that valuable. Those games were horrible, yes, but the the 2 games before that Detroit decisively outplayed both NYR and Tampa. The truth about where they were as a team was somewhere in between those two extremes - and regardless they're not the same team next season.

We'll a 92 point pace normally doesn't make it and as the season went on and the games got harder to play, they folded.

I was at one of those two games btw and I know what I saw. The wings were dominated in every possible way. Score aside, you simply don't often see NHL teams dominated the way Detroit was, let alone on back to back nights.

We appear to have different opinions. I'm not trying to convince you of my opinion, I simply stated what it was a few pages ago. Part of my opinion is based on having seen Detroit getting frankly embarrassed when it mattered last February.

Let's just agree to disagree and move on.

 

[Pavels Dog]

We'll a 92 point pace normally doesn't make it and as the season went on and the games got harder to play, they folded.

That's.. simply not true. Injuries, lack of good call-ups, and a conscious decision to sell at the TDL to focus on the future sank the team.

I was at one of those two games btw and I know what I saw. The wings were dominated in every possible way.

It was 2 games. Ottawa got embarrassed by Chicago and Vancouver the next week.

 

[JD1]

That's.. simply not true. Injuries, lack of good call-ups, and a conscious decision to sell at the TDL to focus on the future sank the team.


It was 2 games. Ottawa got embarrassed by Chicago and Vancouver the next week.

So what impact do you think watching his team get embarrassed back to back nights had on Yzerman's "conscious decision" to sell. Does he make the same conscious decision if the wings split those games and look good doing so? It's probably pretty fair to say that those two games had an impact on the conscious decision

Ottawa lost both their goaltenders. We ended up after the Detroit games on a horrific run that saw us using ECHL level goaltending on our way to a season that saw the team use 7 starting goalies. The NHL record is 8 btw, and it's only happened once.

I'm done. Thanks for the discussion

 

[Ezekial]

So what impact do you think watching his team get embarrassed back to back nights had on Yzerman's "conscious decision" to sell. Does he make the same conscious decision if the wings split those games and look good doing so? It's probably pretty fair to say that those two games had an impact on the conscious decision

Ottawa lost both their goaltenders. We ended up after the Detroit games on a horrific run that saw us using ECHL level goaltending on our way to a season that saw the team use 7 starting goalies. The NHL record is 8 btw, and it's only happened once.

I'm done. Thanks for the discussion

I'm sure Korpi will solve your goaltending issues.

And no, I don't think ottawa beating us in btb games had any impact on Yzerman selling Bertuzzi, Hronek, and Vrana.

 

[Pavels Dog]

So what impact do you think watching his team get embarrassed back to back nights had on Yzerman's "conscious decision" to sell. Does he make the same conscious decision if the wings split those games and look good doing so? It's probably pretty fair to say that those two games had an impact on the conscious decision

Debatable. Squeeking into the playoffs is not more valuable than setting the team up for long-term success.
Anyway, regurgitating that they had 2 bad games 6 months ago does nothing to actually bolster your claim that they are a lock to miss. In fact with every subsequent comment it's only more obvious you made that claim from a "rivalry" standpoint rather than one of assessing the team as it stands.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Don't take this as me saying "chart = truth" or "detroit will make it", but I can't buy into an argument that Detroit is a lock to miss at this point:

You are on the warpath this off season eh?

Respect for believing in your team.

These publicly available models are always pretty bad. So many years Toronto was 1st or 2nd on them and we all knew that wasn't a reality.

I do love Montreal sitting at 69 points this year.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

So what impact do you think watching his team get embarrassed back to back nights had on Yzerman's "conscious decision" to sell. Does he make the same conscious decision if the wings split those games and look good doing so? It's probably pretty fair to say that those two games had an impact on the conscious decision

Ottawa lost both their goaltenders. We ended up after the Detroit games on a horrific run that saw us using ECHL level goaltending on our way to a season that saw the team use 7 starting goalies. The NHL record is 8 btw, and it's only happened once.

I'm done. Thanks for the discussion

To be fair, 4 of those goalies played a total of 8 games and 3/4 significantly outperformed (0.940, 0.935, 0.916) the 3 goalies (0.902, 0.898, 0.889) who played most of the games.

 

[Weltschmerz]

Don't take this as me saying "chart = truth" or "detroit will make it", but I can't buy into an argument that Detroit is a lock to miss at this point:

last year:

 

[JD1]

Debatable. Squeeking into the playoffs is not more valuable than setting the team up for long-term success.
Anyway, regurgitating that they had 2 bad games 6 months ago does nothing to actually bolster your claim that they are a lock to miss. In fact with every subsequent comment it's only more obvious you made that claim from a "rivalry" standpoint rather than one of assessing the team as it stands.

It's got nothing to do with rivalry

There's 4 teams that made it last year in the Atlantic. They've all lost a bit. Of the remaining 4, there are two that I think could show significant improvement. Detroit isn't one of those two.