Predict the Atlantic Standings

[Pavels Dog]

You are on the warpath this off season eh?

Respect for believing in your team.

I still predict them missing the playoffs though. I just think people overrate the importance of players like Erne, Czarnik, Hägg and Lindström.

last year:

There are some major errors, but look at the comments. It's not like people identified the correct errors. A lot of "Vegas is going to suck", "No way columbus is that bad", "blahblah Ottawa" (who were pretty much bang on) type of comments. And Bruins were without Bergeron in that projection.
It's still a lot of teams roughly where they ended up (mainly the bottom feeders, but also 11/16 playoff teams).

 

[HockeyVirus]

I think the only locks in the Atlantic this year are Montreal and Detroit missing the playoffs.

Beyond that there's a pretty wide range of possibilities and health will be a factor

You look at Toronto, Boston, TB and Florida and they're on most pundit lists as having the worst off seasons.

You look at Buffalo and Ottawa and both are poised to make a jump.

I'm not sure how Toronto had one of the worst offseasons? Their goaltending is the same, their defense is the same. Their TDL pieces factored very little into their regular season standings.

Biggest loss is Bunting, but they got Bertuzzi. Kerfoot, but got Domi. I am not aware of any player they lost and I am sitting here going "we don't know how to fix that hole" and it looks like they upgraded on pieces they lost.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I'm not sure how Toronto had one of the worst offseasons? Their goaltending is the same, their defense is the same. Their TDL pieces factored very little into their regular season standings.

Biggest loss is Bunting, but they got Bertuzzi. Kerfoot, but got Domi. I am not aware of any player they lost and I am sitting here going "we don't know how to fix that hole" and it looks like they upgraded on pieces they lost.

I think there's a malaise factor. Same group for so long now with very little success. They're human like the rest of us and need something to motivate them. I can totally see a drop off this season.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I think there's a malaise factor. Same group for so long now with very little success. They're human like the rest of us and need something to motivate them. I can totally see a drop off this season.

I have a feeling getting a couple waterbugs in Domi and Bertuzzi will definitely inject some life in the team. I also think getting some offensive talent on D will help, as this group loves to score and has need a guy like Klingberg for a while.

Not entirely sold we will be better points wise, but I expect the team to defintiely play with more speed and fiestiness.

I think there could be a pretty fair possibly Bunting was largely a product of his linemates. We will see if Aho, Necas, TT and Svech can elevate him the same way. I. personally, won't miss him at 4.5m.

 

[Captain97]

1. Toronto - 115
2. Tampa - 104
3. Boston - 100
4. Florida - 98
5. Buffalo - 96
6. Ottawa - 90
7. Detroit - 87
8. Montreal - 74

 

[SensFactor]

Toronto
Tampa Bay
Buffalo
Ottawa
Boston
Florida
Detroit
Montreal

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

last year:

94 points from a 3/4 healthy roster in Detroit was in the realm of possibilities. They were in a playoff spot until the end of february when Yzerman traded Bertuzzi (injured most of the year) Vrana (did something stupid to get himself traded for nothing) Sundqvist (forever missed!) and Hronek (was actually playing pretty well.)

If those trades weren't made Detroit wouldn't have had such a miserable finish to the year and would have been pretty close to that 94 point mark.

This year Detroit is going to be adding...

Edvinsson (whenever his shoulder is fully rehabbed)
Sprong (Slight downgrade compared to a streaky Vrana when looking at their careers)
Compher (MAJOR upgrade on Suter)
Kostin (MAJOR upgrade on Erne)
Fischer (MAJOR upgrade on Chiasson)
Gostisbehere (About equal with Hronek)
Holl (MAJOR upgrade on Lindstrom despite what Leafs fans will say)
Petry (MAJOR upgrade Hagg despite what Habs fans will say)
DeBrincat (MAJOR upgrade on Kubalik despite what Sens fans will say)
Reimer (About equal or worse than Nedeljkovic)
Lyon (MAJOR upgrade on Helberg)

It's also important to remember that Seider and Chiarot was a terribad pairing and we're unlikely to watch that for 40 games again. But when Seider was put with Walman, a no-name throw-in on the Nick Leddy trade, Seider/Walman became one of the best pairs in the NHL near the end of the season.

A fully healthy Detroit team playing solid defense and getting average to above average goaltending might get 97 but I don't think something between 90 and 95 isn't crazy after factoring injuries in. Their depth and farm system this year will help mitigate points lost that they couldn't handle last year. For instance, having Rasmussen (top 6, knee), Fabbri (top 9, knee), Bertuzzi (top line, hands then trade), and Vrana (top 6, idiocy then trade) out meant Detroit was missing 4 wingers from late February until the end of the year. It would take a lot of broken mirrors and walking under ladders to replicate that kind of bad luck.

 

[norrisnick]

I have a feeling getting a couple waterbugs in Domi and Bertuzzi will definitely inject some life in the team. I also think getting some offensive talent on D will help, as this group loves to score and has need a guy like Klingberg for a while.

Not entirely sold we will be better points wise, but I expect the team to defintiely play with more speed and fiestiness.

I think there could be a pretty fair possibly Bunting was largely a product of his linemates. We will see if Aho, Necas, TT and Svech can elevate him the same way. I. personally, won't miss him at 4.5m.

I'm not sure I can squint hard enough to get Bert to appear waterbug like. He looks less like a waterbug on the ice and more like an albatross desperately trying to get enough speed to take off.

 

[Laus723]

94 points from a 3/4 healthy roster in Detroit was in the realm of possibilities. They were in a playoff spot until the end of february when Yzerman traded Bertuzzi (injured most of the year) Vrana (did something stupid to get himself traded for nothing) Sundqvist (forever missed!) and Hronek (was actually playing pretty well.)

If those trades weren't made Detroit wouldn't have had such a miserable finish to the year and would have been pretty close to that 94 point mark.

This year Detroit is going to be adding...

Edvinsson (whenever his shoulder is fully rehabbed)
Sprong (Slight downgrade compared to a streaky Vrana when looking at their careers)
Compher (MAJOR upgrade on Suter)
Kostin (MAJOR upgrade on Erne)
Fischer (MAJOR upgrade on Chiasson)
Gostisbehere (About equal with Hronek)
Holl (MAJOR upgrade on Lindstrom despite what Leafs fans will say)
Petry (MAJOR upgrade Hagg despite what Habs fans will say)
DeBrincat (MAJOR upgrade on Kubalik despite what Sens fans will say)
Reimer (About equal or worse than Nedeljkovic)
Lyon (MAJOR upgrade on Helberg)

It's also important to remember that Seider and Chiarot was a terribad pairing and we're unlikely to watch that for 40 games again. But when Seider was put with Walman, a no-name throw-in on the Nick Leddy trade, Seider/Walman became one of the best pairs in the NHL near the end of the season.

A fully healthy Detroit team playing solid defense and getting average to above average goaltending might get 97 but I don't think something between 90 and 95 isn't crazy after factoring injuries in. Their depth and farm system this year will help mitigate points lost that they couldn't handle last year. For instance, having Rasmussen (top 6, knee), Fabbri (top 9, knee), Bertuzzi (top line, hands then trade), and Vrana (top 6, idiocy then trade) out meant Detroit was missing 4 wingers from late February until the end of the year. It would take a lot of broken mirrors and walking under ladders to replicate that kind of bad luck.

While I agree theres some definite upgrades in the lineup, I think there's still question marks with some of those Major upgrades. I mean, Debrincat didn't look good in Ottawa, could be for a number of reasons, could just be that he clicked that well with a superstar in Kane. Maybe I missed something about it, though. Holl has never looked good to me, but he could do better elsewhere, as a Panther fan we've seen it with guys that've come here. But, there could very well be something to what Leaf and Sens fans say.

Ghost is a solid addition, though.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

While I agree theres some definite upgrades in the lineup, I think there's still question marks with some of those Major upgrades. I mean, Debrincat didn't look good in Ottawa, could be for a number of reasons, could just be that he clicked that well with a superstar in Kane. Maybe I missed something about it, though. Holl has never looked good to me, but he could do better elsewhere, as a Panther fan we've seen it with guys that've come here. But, there could very well be something to what Leaf and Sens fans say.

Ghost is a solid addition, though.

DeBrincat was a 2nd line winger with Pinto as his center and got pp1 minutes. In Detroit he’s their clear cut top winger and will play with Larkin. That’s a huge difference.

Also DeBrincat wanted out of town. I’m not sure how much that player into his lower performance.

If Holl plays as the #6, blocks shots and kills penalties then he’s totally fine. He was overplayed in Toronto and that hurts defensemen. He was their #4. That won’t be the case in Detroit.

 

[Laus723]

DeBrincat was a 2nd line winger with Pinto as his center and got pp1 minutes. In Detroit he’s their clear cut top winger and will play with Larkin. That’s a huge difference.

If Holl plays as the #6, blocks shots and kills penalties then he’s totally fine. He was overplayed in Toronto and that hurts defensemen. He was their #4. That won’t be the case in Detroit.

Yeah, will be an interesting to see how Detroit, and every team really, Will do this season. Tons of questions.

 

[Fatass]

Toronto
Tampa
Boston
Florida
Ottawa


Buffalo
Montreal
Detroit

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

This division is near completely unpredictable so I may as well go all in on a few hot takes.

In Playoffs
Buffalo
Florida
Toronto
Detroit

Out of Playoffs
Tampa
Ottawa
Boston
Montreal

Detroit over Tampa? Not a chance

 

[Beezeral]

You were ranked 21st in the league in team shooting percentage with career years from Tkachuk, Verhaeghe, and Montour.

This is nowhere near the same extreme as Buffalo's #32 ranked goaltending.

And the panthers offensive analytics were top 10 in the NHL. They got awful shooting luck last year. The Sabres had poor team defense and worse goaltending last year by the analytics. One has a higher chance than the other to regress to the mean. It’s not the Sabres.

 

[Blowfish]

94 points from a 3/4 healthy roster in Detroit was in the realm of possibilities. They were in a playoff spot until the end of february when Yzerman traded Bertuzzi (injured most of the year) Vrana (did something stupid to get himself traded for nothing) Sundqvist (forever missed!) and Hronek (was actually playing pretty well.)

If those trades weren't made Detroit wouldn't have had such a miserable finish to the year and would have been pretty close to that 94 point mark.

This year Detroit is going to be adding...

Edvinsson (whenever his shoulder is fully rehabbed)
Sprong (Slight downgrade compared to a streaky Vrana when looking at their careers)
Compher (MAJOR upgrade on Suter)
Kostin (MAJOR upgrade on Erne)
Fischer (MAJOR upgrade on Chiasson)
Gostisbehere (About equal with Hronek)
Holl (MAJOR upgrade on Lindstrom despite what Leafs fans will say)
Petry (MAJOR upgrade Hagg despite what Habs fans will say)
DeBrincat (MAJOR upgrade on Kubalik despite what Sens fans will say)
Reimer (About equal or worse than Nedeljkovic)
Lyon (MAJOR upgrade on Helberg)

It's also important to remember that Seider and Chiarot was a terribad pairing and we're unlikely to watch that for 40 games again. But when Seider was put with Walman, a no-name throw-in on the Nick Leddy trade, Seider/Walman became one of the best pairs in the NHL near the end of the season.

A fully healthy Detroit team playing solid defense and getting average to above average goaltending might get 97 but I don't think something between 90 and 95 isn't crazy after factoring injuries in. Their depth and farm system this year will help mitigate points lost that they couldn't handle last year. For instance, having Rasmussen (top 6, knee), Fabbri (top 9, knee), Bertuzzi (top line, hands then trade), and Vrana (top 6, idiocy then trade) out meant Detroit was missing 4 wingers from late February until the end of the year. It would take a lot of broken mirrors and walking under ladders to replicate that kind of bad luck.

Chiasson had 6 goals and 3 helpers or 9 pts in just 20 games for Detroit? Fisher had 13 goals and 14 helpers or 27 pts in 80 games...

Had Chiasson played full 80 he may have finished with 36 points. Not bad but Fisher is not a MAJOR updgrade over Chiasson.

 

[Ezekial]

Chiasson had 6 goals and 3 helpers or 9 pts in just 20 games for Detroit? Fisher had 13 goals and 14 helpers or 27 pts in 80 games...

Had Chiasson played full 80 he may have finished with 36 points. Not bad but Fisher is not a MAJOR updgrade over Chiasson.

Chiasson got lucky to be put in a situation where he was on PP1 and cashed in on some grease. His 1 even strength goal was a 6 on 5 too. Very fun to end the year, but not sustainable imo

 

[Spargon]

94 points from a 3/4 healthy roster in Detroit was in the realm of possibilities. They were in a playoff spot until the end of february when Yzerman traded Bertuzzi (injured most of the year) Vrana (did something stupid to get himself traded for nothing) Sundqvist (forever missed!) and Hronek (was actually playing pretty well.)

If those trades weren't made Detroit wouldn't have had such a miserable finish to the year and would have been pretty close to that 94 point mark.

This year Detroit is going to be adding...

Edvinsson (whenever his shoulder is fully rehabbed)
Sprong (Slight downgrade compared to a streaky Vrana when looking at their careers)
Compher (MAJOR upgrade on Suter)
Kostin (MAJOR upgrade on Erne)
Fischer (MAJOR upgrade on Chiasson)
Gostisbehere (About equal with Hronek)
Holl (MAJOR upgrade on Lindstrom despite what Leafs fans will say)
Petry (MAJOR upgrade Hagg despite what Habs fans will say)
DeBrincat (MAJOR upgrade on Kubalik despite what Sens fans will say)
Reimer (About equal or worse than Nedeljkovic)
Lyon (MAJOR upgrade on Helberg)

It's also important to remember that Seider and Chiarot was a terribad pairing and we're unlikely to watch that for 40 games again. But when Seider was put with Walman, a no-name throw-in on the Nick Leddy trade, Seider/Walman became one of the best pairs in the NHL near the end of the season.

A fully healthy Detroit team playing solid defense and getting average to above average goaltending might get 97 but I don't think something between 90 and 95 isn't crazy after factoring injuries in. Their depth and farm system this year will help mitigate points lost that they couldn't handle last year. For instance, having Rasmussen (top 6, knee), Fabbri (top 9, knee), Bertuzzi (top line, hands then trade), and Vrana (top 6, idiocy then trade) out meant Detroit was missing 4 wingers from late February until the end of the year. It would take a lot of broken mirrors and walking under ladders to replicate that kind of bad luck.

Making this statement for 3 players and 3 fanbases feels like hopes and dreams, just how bad were Detroit's players if these are MAJOR upgrades?

 

[norrisnick]

Making this statement for 3 players and 3 fanbases feels like hopes and dreams, just how bad were Detroit's players if these are MAJOR upgrades?

Lindstrom is scared of forechecking pressure and contact in the crease. He lost his 3rd pairing RD spot to LD Jordan Oesterle. He did nothing but bleed goals against in his 14 minutes for 36 games. He was quite honestly abused out there. Holl played 20 a night for 80 games. Wings would be thrilled if Holl could be a playoff scapegoat, like he was for Toronto. It's taking a guy who was in the top 4 and letting him be a 3rd pairing guy.

Hagg... 15 minutes a night for 30 odd games. Treated the puck like it was a handgrenade. Petry played steady for 22 minutes a night for 60+ games. Again, it's taking a top 4 guy and putting him in a 3rd pairing role.

Kubalik came one point short of tying his career high of 46 points last season. DeBrincat by most accounts had an off year and had 66 points. Even if he stays in that 30/30 range it's an upgrade over a 20/20 guy.

Kubalik is the only guy I miss. I guess Suter at $1.5M would be nice to have back too. But... the players that are replacing the outgoing guys are steps up at every juncture.

If the Wings had good players all the way down, they wouldn't have been as bad as they've been for 8 years now.

 

[ricky0034]

I still predict them missing the playoffs though. I just think people overrate the importance of players like Erne, Czarnik, Hägg and Lindström.


There are some major errors, but look at the comments. It's not like people identified the correct errors. A lot of "Vegas is going to suck", "No way columbus is that bad", "blahblah Ottawa" (who were pretty much bang on) type of comments. And Bruins were without Bergeron in that projection.
It's still a lot of teams roughly where they ended up (mainly the bottom feeders, but also 11/16 playoff teams).

I feel like 11/16 Playoff teams would probably be below average if we found a standings prediction thread from last offseason here and averaged it out

like....how is that impressive?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I thnk Buffalo is good enough to get into the olayoffs l but I habe no clue who they replace from last years playoff teams . I can’t see how Tampa , Boston , Florida miss ?

Florida only made it by 1 point and both Ekblad and Montour are out to start the season and I think Tkachuk too but I'm not sure about Tkachuk.

But regardless Ekblad and Montour are so Florida could miss.

But even if they did I'd take Ottawa over Buffalo.

I don't trust either teams goaltending but I will take the veteran over kid with 7 games experience

Anyone else think the Atlantic is taking both wildcard spots?
I see Tampa, Toronto, Florida, Boston as locks then whoever comes out on top between Buffalo, Ottawa and Detroit will take the final wildcard spot.

No, not after Pittsburgh got Karlsson

 

[Laus723]

Florida only made it by 1 point and both Ekblad and Montour are out to start the season and I think Tkachuk too but I'm not sure about Tkachuk.

But regardless Ekblad and Montour are so Florida could miss.

But even if they did I'd take Ottawa over Buffalo.

I don't trust either teams goaltending but I will take the veteran over kid with 7 games experience



No, not after Pittsburgh got Karlsson

Tkachuk should be good to go game 1, Monty could be possibly be ahead of schedule from what I’ve seen, Ek is supposedly ready around Christmas. Zito loaded us up with depth since we have cap space, not worried.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Chiasson had 6 goals and 3 helpers or 9 pts in just 20 games for Detroit? Fisher had 13 goals and 14 helpers or 27 pts in 80 games...

Had Chiasson played full 80 he may have finished with 36 points. Not bad but Fisher is not a MAJOR updgrade over Chiasson.

Context you’re missing: He got hot while playing PP1 with 4th line minutes after an AHL tryout, after everyone was traded. No way he’d have kept that pace all year.

Making this statement for 3 players and 3 fanbases feels like hopes and dreams, just how bad were Detroit's players if these are MAJOR upgrades?

Really, really bad.

Ask any wings fan to recount the Hagg-Lindstrom pairing and you’ll trigger a ‘Nam-like flashback.

 

[Weltschmerz]

94 points from a 3/4 healthy roster in Detroit was in the realm of possibilities. They were in a playoff spot until the end of february when Yzerman traded Bertuzzi (injured most of the year) Vrana (did something stupid to get himself traded for nothing) Sundqvist (forever missed!) and Hronek (was actually playing pretty well.)

If those trades weren't made Detroit wouldn't have had such a miserable finish to the year and would have been pretty close to that 94 point mark.

This year Detroit is going to be adding...

Edvinsson (whenever his shoulder is fully rehabbed)
Sprong (Slight downgrade compared to a streaky Vrana when looking at their careers)
Compher (MAJOR upgrade on Suter)
Kostin (MAJOR upgrade on Erne)
Fischer (MAJOR upgrade on Chiasson)
Gostisbehere (About equal with Hronek)
Holl (MAJOR upgrade on Lindstrom despite what Leafs fans will say)
Petry (MAJOR upgrade Hagg despite what Habs fans will say)
DeBrincat (MAJOR upgrade on Kubalik despite what Sens fans will say)
Reimer (About equal or worse than Nedeljkovic)
Lyon (MAJOR upgrade on Helberg)

It's also important to remember that Seider and Chiarot was a terribad pairing and we're unlikely to watch that for 40 games again. But when Seider was put with Walman, a no-name throw-in on the Nick Leddy trade, Seider/Walman became one of the best pairs in the NHL near the end of the season.

A fully healthy Detroit team playing solid defense and getting average to above average goaltending might get 97 but I don't think something between 90 and 95 isn't crazy after factoring injuries in. Their depth and farm system this year will help mitigate points lost that they couldn't handle last year. For instance, having Rasmussen (top 6, knee), Fabbri (top 9, knee), Bertuzzi (top line, hands then trade), and Vrana (top 6, idiocy then trade) out meant Detroit was missing 4 wingers from late February until the end of the year. It would take a lot of broken mirrors and walking under ladders to replicate that kind of bad luck.

I posted that stuff from last year not for the 94 points but to show that overall those predictions are not better than what the random HFposter has.

That said I agree with the OP that Detroit is not a lock to miss.

For your additions, I would not see replacing 4th liners or 3rd string goalies as a major upgrade.

De Brincat should be, but even if Kubalik went to the sens in that trade he is not replacing him, he will bump Perron or Raymond down in icetime.

Hagg and Lidtrom bot played less than 40 games, Vrana played just 5, makes no sense to have him even in there.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Making this statement for 3 players and 3 fanbases feels like hopes and dreams, just how bad were Detroit's players if these are MAJOR upgrades?

They were bad tbh.

Recognizing that situations aren't 1:1 comparables (useage, time on ice, teammates etc) the breakdown is still pretty lopsided:

OUT (12 players) vs. IN (8 players)
543GP vs. 583GP
77 goals vs. 109 goals
127 assists vs. 193 assists
204 points vs. 302 points
-80 vs. +7
0.36pts/gp vs. 0.52pts/gp

 

[wintersej]

I feel bad for Detroit fans optimism. No matter how you shake it, they are average to below average on every line except first D pairing. And even there it’s nothing special in a division with a lot of good top pairing D.