Predict the Atlantic Standings

[TheImpatientPanther]

I will never predict the Bruins to be out of the playoffs until they've missed two years in a row. That team is a defenseman factory and Bergeron still has it. They're thinner and older up front than their Leafs-thrashing heyday, but that's still a playoff team until further notice.

I think the Panthers will slide a fair bit. I just do not rate Tkachuk at all. He's a good player, but he's a direct downgrade from Huberdeau, and losing Weegar is pretty big. Still have plenty of firepower to work with, but I don't like the look of that defense.

Lightning are still elite. Leafs have goaltending question marks, but we did last year too. Sens and Red Wings are looking a lot better, but just like I won't count the Bruins out, I won't count either of those teams in until they have the X by their name in the standings.

The Sabres will win 10 out of their first 12 and then miss the playoffs, as is tradition. Team looks better than yesteryear, but we've been saying that every summer for a decade. Comrie and Craig Anderson in net is even worse than what my Leafs have between the pipes. Habs are rebuilding.

Lightning
Leafs
Panthers

Bruins
Senators
Red Wings
Sabres


Habs

It is inevitable that I will be outrageously and hilariously wrong about at least three of these teams. Which ones? We'll find out!

Do you have any point predictions for the teams?
You said Florida will slide a fair bit but 1st to 3rd doesn't seem to jive with what you're saying.

I'd say wildcard spot is more in tune with your analysis of them

 

[topshelf15]

My prediction ....for the Atlantic


TB
Tor
Ottawa

one of the rest


Ottawa,s top 9 is very deep,and skilled, likely one of the best in the division...Their defense has some questions on the second pair sure...But not many will be adding a prospect defender of Sanderson,s calibre either....Goaltending has improved by adding another solid goaltender in Talbot to an already decent Forsberg...Most of the teams ahead of them have questions as well or have generally gotten worse...Save maybe TB ...Again we will see what happens ,but if we remain healthy we should be good for a playoff spot

 

[BostonBruins11]

We already know Bruins won't be 100% though. Maybe they can tread water until they are, but November for example looks like a pretty brutal month for them.

PIT, NYR, TOR, STL, CGY, TBL*2, FLA, CAR.. then they start December with a couple of games against Colorado and Vegas.

For a couple months yes but they replaced Haula for Krejci(massive upgrade), added Zacha to the 3rd line and have a healthy Lindholm for a full season.

Only a handful of teams can compete with a second line of Hall-Krejci-Pastrnak, and a 3rd line of Zacha-Coyle-Smith is nothing to scoff at.

 

[wetcoast]

There was a thread for this a while back but it was made way too early before Boston made their signings and got way off track. I made this thread exactly 1 year ago: Predict the Atlantic Standings and got all 4 playoff teams right. Way off on the non-playoff teams. Here’s my order:

1. Toronto-116 points: This isn’t the playoffs, time and time again the Leafs have shown they are a great regular season team. While the Matt Murray move looks real bad to me, Campbell was one of the worst goalies in the league (if not the worst) in the 2nd half and Mrazek was garbage, and they were still very good, so I see no concerns. They lost some minor pieces but of the big 4 in the Atlantic, they definitely lost the least.
2. Florida- 109 points: If I read 1 more time how much worse Florida will be due to losing Giroux and Chariot I will lose my mind. Florida was on a 120 point pace before trading for them in March. They finished with 116 points in 2021. The loss of Weegar, Duclair and Marchment will hurt, but this is still a very good regular season team that Vegas still has 4th in President’s Trophy odds (not that I see a repeat). I have no idea why the loss of Weegar, Duclair and Marchment are so backbreaking to cause Florida to lose 30 points and miss the playoffs like part of HF seems to think but neither myself or Vegas buys it. As is I have them down 13 points which is significant.
3. Tampa- 106 points: A team that’s never cared about positioning, with the loss of McDonagh and Palat along with major injuries to Cirelli and Bogosian, I have them firmly in 3rd. One of the more interesting moves of the summer was keeping Philippe Myers, who has looked bad for several years and who had a unique buyout that actually would have increased Tampa’s cap room this year. They chose to keep him and he looks slotted in a top 4 role. Diamond in the rough of rare slipup?

4. Boston-99 points (wildcard): I may have had Boston out of the playoffs if the didn’t bring back Bergeron and Krecji. An older team, significant injuries to Marchand and McAvoy will have the Bruins in a tough spot the 1st half. But bringing back 2 good players should give them enough leeway. I like Jim Montgomery but have no idea why Cassidy was fired and not Sweeney. I'd have done it the other way around.

1. Ottawa-89 points: For these non-playoff teams it gets tricky. I don’t really buy the Sens hype. Giroux is still very good, nice signing. Debrincat trade, what a fleece job. But this was a 70 point team last year. Sure they had a tough covid run but I just don’t see the 30 point improvement needed to make the playoffs. Please get Chabot some help back there.
2. Detroit- 88 points: Copp and Perron are nice players. They have some great young players. I like Husso. In the same vein as Ottawa though, I don’t think they’ve closed the gap enough on the top teams. Also I don’t know what Ben Chariot does to a MFer, Zito gave up so much and Yzerman gave an awful contract, both of these guys are good GMs but no idea why he’s being paid as a borderline top pairing guy/#3.
3. Buffalo-85 points: Buffalo was good in the second half. A lot of fun to watch. Tage Thompson and Tuch were great, Dahlin improved, Power looks like the real deal. I’m just not a fan of their goaltending. 6k doesn’t look ready to carry the load, Comrie was good but 15 starts last year isn’t enough and he hasn’t shown much in his career till then, and Craig Anderson is 800 years old.
4. Montreal-62 points: Kent Hughes has done a nice job (Monahan and a 1st, BEN CHARIOT FOR A 1ST, excuse the caps) and they have some nice young players but this is going to be a very bad year (or good, Bedard sweepstakes?). It’s a great year to tank but they’ll have some tough competition in Chicago, Arizona and Philly.

Pretty good post here although Buffalo could be higher if things develop with having Power for the full year and they get some stability in net..

 

[Golden_Jet]

Except that going back to 2017-18 it has been the same 4 teams at the top of the Atlantic apart from one year when Florida was 5th and the Covid year when there was no Atlantic division.

So it can never change then.

 

[wetcoast]

My prediction ....for the Atlantic


TB
Tor
Ottawa

one of the rest


Ottawa,s top 9 is very deep,and skilled, likely one of the best in the division...Their defense has some questions on the second pair sure...But not many will be adding a prospect defender of Sanderson,s calibre either....Goaltending has improved by adding another solid goaltender in Talbot to an already decent Forsberg...Most of the teams ahead of them have questions as well or have generally gotten worse...Save maybe TB ...Again we will see what happens ,but if we remain healthy we should be good for a playoff spot

I highly doubt that The Sens will finish ahead of Florida or heck even within 10 points of them really.

 

[Beezeral]

Please do forwards...Iam sure you will just as forthcoming ...lol

I'm not taking the time to post 18 forwards. But here is what I will do. Pick who you think are the #1, #4, and #7 Forward for the Panthers and Senators and I will post the graph for each. The onus is on you to be as fair as possible, but if you try to pass off Colin White as the Panthers 4th best Forward and match him up with Brady Tkachuk, we will all know what you tried to do.

but we reeeeally need to not get into this "look at the player card!!" thing that's been starting up.

I disagree. Using actual quantifiable data is a way better method of comparing players than two random people on HF boards saying Player X is better than Player Y because they said so.

There are like a dozen different player value metrics that all say different things, even total value numbers are subject to noise and variance and issues with repeatability, and also they're just big images that take up a lot of space

Then bring in other people's metrics. I don't sub to JFresh or Evolving Hockey, but I'm sure there is a Sens or Panthers fan out there who has access to the player cards and will post those comparisons so we have more data.

also they're just big images that take up a lot of space when most of the time nobody means anything deeper than "well WAR says he's good."

Disagree for the same reason previously said. These charts are something quantifiable based off data scraping and player tracking. It's exponentially more accurate than us posters using our biased feels.

A year old, they show for 21/22 projected pace, and actual stats for 20/21.
Yes they are influenced by how good a team is. There is way more to evaluate than Dom’s GSVA.

How do you continually misread these charts. They are not a year old. They are from this past season. The 20-21 data is briefly shown at the top of each chart.

Here you go, hope this helps clear up your confusion.

Those WAR charts are also incredibly misleading when comparing a great team and a bad team. Forsling is not anywhere near as good as Chabot, but that chart will tell you he actually is.

The charts do their best to show individual impact. Am I sitting here saying that Forsling=Chabot? nope. But I'm also not going to sit here and watch posters like @topshelf15 blindly proclaim his team better at every position with ZERO evidence to back it up other than his biased feels. The data shows that the Panthers even with the loss of Weegar have a better defense than the Senators and it's not that close.

Except that going back to 2017-18 it has been the same 4 teams at the top of the Atlantic apart from one year when Florida was 5th and the Covid year when there was no Atlantic division.

even the bubble year the Panthers, Leafs, Bruins, and Leafs were clearly the best four teams from what was the Atlantic Division.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I'm not taking the time to post 18 forwards. But here is what I will do. Pick who you think are the #1, #4, and #7 Forward for the Panthers and Senators and I will post the graph for each. The onus is on you to be as fair as possible, but if you try to pass off Colin White as the Panthers 4th best Forward and match him up with Brady Tkachuk, we will all know what you tried to do.



I disagree. Using actual quantifiable data is a way better method of comparing players than two random people on HF boards saying Player X is better than Player Y because they said so.


Then bring in other people's metrics. I don't sub to JFresh or Evolving Hockey, but I'm sure there is a Sens or Panthers fan out there who has access to the player cards and will post those comparisons so we have more data.


Disagree for the same reason previously said. These charts are something quantifiable based off data scraping and player tracking. It's exponentially more accurate than us posters using our biased feels.


How do you continually misread these charts. They are not a year old. They are from this past season. The 20-21 data is briefly shown at the top of each chart.

Here you go, hope this helps clear up your confusion.
View attachment 579226


The charts do their best to show individual impact. Am I sitting here saying that Forsling=Chabot? nope. But I'm also not going to sit here and watch posters like @topshelf15 blindly proclaim his team better at every position with ZERO evidence to back it up other than his biased feels. The data shows that the Panthers even with the loss of Weegar have a better defense than the Senators and it's not that close.

even the bubble year the Panthers, Leafs, Bruins, and Leafs were clearly the best four teams from what was the Atlantic Division.

Yep projected pace, from some time during the year,
Appears you don’t understand how stats work, good teams get better numbers than rebuilding teams, that’s a fact.
And relying on one chart to prove your cAse is funny.

 

[Yorkshire Leaf]

So it can never change then.

It certainly can and will, I was replying to a post saying that 1 or 2 will drop out like they do every year, was just pointing out that hasn’t been the case recently in the Atlantic. Personally I think it is a year too soon for Detroit or Ottawa and don’t see a 30 point swing being possible either by last year’s top 4 regressing or others improving.

The Atlantic had 4 teams in the top 10 last year and 4 in the bottom 9 league wide. It is normally mid ranking teams who push on into the playoffs.

 

[Beezeral]

Yep projected pace, from some time during the year,
Appears you don’t understand how stats work, good teams get better numbers than rebuilding teams, that’s a fact.
And relying on one chart to prove your cAse is funny.

Dom updates his charts throughout the year. Those were updated at the end of the regular season. And at least I am relying on something other than feels. I've asked you multiple times to bring up something other than feels to back up your argument and we are still waiting.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Yep projected pace, from some time during the year,
Appears you don’t understand how stats work, good teams get better numbers than rebuilding teams, that’s a fact.
And relying on one chart to prove your cAse is funny.

Let's see your evidence Ottawa is better than Florida.
Appears you and @topshelf15 FEEL you'll be better but yet topshelf admitted defeat 5 games in last year.

 

[Beezeral]

Let's see your evidence Ottawa is better than Florida.
Appears you and @topshelf15 FEEL you'll be better but yet topshelf admitted defeat 5 games in last year.

what's even funnier is that one of the reasons he admitted defeat is because Colin White got hurt. But when he talks about Colin White the Florida Panther, it's a negative to have him as the 8th or 9th best Forward on the team... Baffling really.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Dom updates his charts throughout the year. Those were updated at the end of the regular season. And at least I am relying on something other than feels. I've asked you multiple times to bring up something other than feels to back up your argument and we are still waiting.

If he updated them, then I’d assume you’d show them instead of the projected ones, from mid season.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

what's even funnier is that one of the reasons he admitted defeat is because Colin White got hurt. But when he talks about Colin White the Florida Panther, it's a negative to have him as the 8th or 9th best Forward on the team... Baffling really.

Topshelf material haha.
Bookmarked some of the gems in this thread for later on in the season.

 

[Beezeral]

If he updated them, then I’d assume you’d show them instead of the projected ones, from mid season.

because it ALWAYS says projected based on an 82 game sample. Read the guide I posted.

 

[Golden_Jet]

because it ALWAYS says projected based on an 82 game sample. Read the guide I posted.

You said it’s updated at end of regular season, well 21-22 season ended 4 months ago, where is that one. Not the PROJECTED one that was issued before season ended. If it was end of season you wouldn’t see 19 assists, projected to be 26 assists by end of season, for example.

Geez it seems like you don’t understand what projected means.

 

[Yorkshire Leaf]

You said it’s updated at end of regular season, well 21-22 season ended 4 months ago, where is that one. Not the PROJECTED one that was issued before season ended. If it was end of season you wouldn’t see 19 assists, projected to be 26 assists by end of season, for example.

Geez it seems like you don’t understand what projected means.

The guide does explain it quite well, it is the projection for the next 82 games based on weighted past performance.

It is simply a way of making players who have played differing numbers of games comparable.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

@Golden_Jet can we get your feedback on Ottawa > Florida?

The guide does explain it quite well, it is the projection for the next 82 games based on weighted past performance.

It is simply a way of making players who have played differing numbers of games comparable.

Odds are golden_jet will fly away and not address these facts in your post

 

[Golden_Jet]

The guide does explain it quite well, it is the projection for the next 82 games based on weighted past performance.

It is simply a way of making players who have played differing numbers of games comparable.

The projected 21/22 - 82 games was over 4 months ago, explain that.

@Golden_Jet can we get your feedback on Ottawa > Florida?


Odds are golden_jet will fly away and not address these facts in your post

Don’t be so daft. Explain line above.

 

[Beezeral]

The guide does explain it quite well, it is the projection for the next 82 games based on weighted past performance.

It is simply a way of making players who have played differing numbers of games comparable.

It's at the point where I think he is being willfully ignorant so he doesn't have to face that the data doesn't match his feels.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

The projected 21/22 - 82 games was over 4 months ago, explain that.


Don’t be so daft. Explain line above.

Do you understand it now?

Stop stalling and post your Ottawa and Florida analysis.

 

[Halakitlikethat]

There’s no doubt Ottawa has had a good off-season, but let’s see how the team gels. Games aren’t won or lost on paper .

 

[Golden_Jet]

It's at the point where I think he is being willfully ignorant so he doesn't have to face that the data doesn't match his feels.

Still waiting for the end of season tables, that don’t show stats from mid season, like you said there was. No PROJECTED points, ACTUAL points, from the season that ended 4 months ago.

What date was Doms tables posted before April 29 (end of season) or after?

 

[Beezeral]

Still waiting for the end of season tables, that don’t show stats from mid season, like you said there was. No PROJECTED points, ACTUAL points, from the season that ended 4 months ago.

What date was Doms tables posted before April 29 (end of season) or after?

Those aren’t stats From mid season. Those are his latest tables. You have to be messing with us at this point.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Maybe Dom is using the wrong wording then.
Projected vs Paced.
Projection definition. Frequency: A prediction or estimate of something in the future, based on present data or trends.
If he posted after regular season I
apologize. He should of used Paced.