Predict the Atlantic Standings

[Beezeral]

Maybe Dom is using the wrong wording then.
Projected vs Paced.
Projection definition. Frequency: A prediction or estimate of something in the future, based on present data or trends.
If he posted after regular season I
apologize. He should of used Paced.

Read the explanation guide. It’s all very clear.

 

[BadBruins]

1. Well Marchand is 34 and is going to miss a few months to injury. Missing your top point-getter from last year is no doubt going to hurt, and missing him for that long and hoping at his age that he can rebound quickly and get in mid-season form by December is optimistic.

2. Then, you're missing your #1 defense for a few months as well. Ask Montreal how it felt to lose their #1 defense last year. I know it won't be for a full season, but losing a #1D is a massive blow, and your right side on defense looks incredibly shallow without him. You also had offseason surgeries to Grzelcyk and Reilly, further hampering the defense to start the year.

3. Finally, you look at your top two centers: 37 years old and 36 years old, one of whom didn't even play in the league last season. They're fantastic players, but they are older and I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a decline from either of them, if not both of them.

...These are the three factors I'm looking at when I make a "bold" prediction that Boston falls to 7th in the division. It is a known rule of thumb in the NHL that your position by American Thanksgiving is almost always representative of whether or not you'll make the playoffs, with a few exceptions. I don't think Boston is in a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving, so can they be an exception? Personally, with the age of their top 6 centers and injuries to key players, I don't think they will be an exception to that rule, and won't be able to catch the rest of the pack.

Of course I could easily be wrong, this is just a prediction and just for fun, so don't let it bother you too much.

Fair points.

I feel like every time I come to the main board Marchand's estimated time of recovery has increased by another month. I do think it's only fair to wait for actual official injury updates. Last unofficial reports I saw were that Marchand himself was targeting being on the ice in training camp and October. Had surgery at the end of May and the timeline estimation was 6 months. I'm sure every case is different. As you point out, age may play a factor as well. "Half the season" or a "few months" just seems exaggerated or wishful thinking by some.

On the other hand the Bruins do have strong wing depth IMO. Specifically at the top. Marchand being out likely just means larger role for Taylor Hall. Move up permanently to PP1 and likely see more 5v3, 4v4, 4v3, 3v3 time as the top LH shot available. Will see his ice time increase from the career low 16:25 he played last year. Where he was very productive.

Even without Marchand they still project to have good top end talent and middle-6 depth. Not saying adding Krejci and Zacha will make up for that loss of Marchand, but the next men up are not going to be rookies learning on the job or playing horribly above their heads.

Bergeron
Pastrnak
Hall
DeBrusk
Krejci
Zacha/Coyle/Smith

I'm more concerned about the blueline and McAvoy, but similar to Marchand having Pastrnak and Hall behind him as scoring wingers, Hampus Lindholm should play a factor as well. A legit 22-25 minute a night top pairing they didn't have last year... Again not looking to carry the load for a full season. They are thin ice if any more injuries take place to the back end.

Over the past 5 seasons the Bruins have finished 4th, 3rd, 1st, 4th and 4th in terms in goals against. There's a defensive structure in place that comes from more than the six individuals patrolling their blueline. Even without McAvoy, I just don't see that falling apart to the point where they aren't actively in games and collecting points.

 

[BLONG7]

So you don't think Boston will win the Atlantic this season......well guess what:

This....................will not age well.

Predictions, are for gypsies, and Leaf fans.

 

[JohnLennon]

Fair points.

I feel like every time I come to the main board Marchand's estimated time of recovery has increased by another month. I do think it's only fair to wait for actual official injury updates. Last unofficial reports I saw were that Marchand himself was targeting being on the ice in training camp and October. Had surgery at the end of May and the timeline estimation was 6 months. I'm sure every case is different. As you point out, age may play a factor as well. "Half the season" or a "few months" just seems exaggerated or wishful thinking by some.

On the other hand the Bruins do have strong wing depth IMO. Specifically at the top. Marchand being out likely just means larger role for Taylor Hall. Move up permanently to PP1 and likely see more 5v3, 4v4, 4v3, 3v3 time as the top LH shot available. Will see his ice time increase from the career low 16:25 he played last year. Where he was very productive.

Even without Marchand they still project to have good top end talent and middle-6 depth. Not saying adding Krejci and Zacha will make up for that loss of Marchand, but the next men up are not going to be rookies learning on the job or playing horribly above their heads.

Bergeron
Pastrnak
Hall
DeBrusk
Krejci
Zacha/Coyle/Smith

I'm more concerned about the blueline and McAvoy, but similar to Marchand having Pastrnak and Hall behind him as scoring wingers, Hampus Lindholm should play a factor as well. A legit 22-25 minute a night top pairing they didn't have last year... Again not looking to carry the load for a full season. They are thin ice if any more injuries take place to the back end.

Over the past 5 seasons the Bruins have finished 4th, 3rd, 1st, 4th and 4th in terms in goals against. There's a defensive structure in place that comes from more than the six individuals patrolling their blueline. Even without McAvoy, I just don't see that falling apart to the point where they aren't actively in games and collecting points.

Thanks for the reply, great post. Honestly, last I heard was Marchand was out until December, so now hearing it was possible he's back in October would make a MASSIVE difference - same story with McAvoy. I guess my main point was that the first few months of the season are so critical, so a lot definitely depends on when these crucial players come back, and how impactful they can be right away.

I agree with respect to the strength on the wings for the Bruins. I think if they start the season with Zacha on the first line LW with Bergeron and Pasta, it could actually be a pretty dangerous line. Always had a soft spot for Zacha, and I prefer him on the wing.

Also, I do like the Ullmark/Swayman pairing in nets. I'm just so skeptical of the Bruins being able to make up for the injuries to key players if they don't come back sooner than December. Lindholm will absolutely be an X-factor here. And as you point out, the Bruins have a history of strong team defense, along with a recent history of regular season success, so if things fall right for them, they could be top 3 in the division once again.

My perspective was definitely a negative one (assuming Marchand and McAvoy were out until December) but if that's not the case, I would revise my predictions a lot.

 

[Blowfish]

Tampa
Buffalo
Boston
Florida
Ottawa
Toronto
Detroit
Montreal

Folk are severely under-rating the Sabres and over-rating Florida and Toronto. Sabres and Ottawa will be drastically better this year.

Toronto Boston and Florida are in for a rude awakening.

 

[Blowfish]

Yep, Ottawa ,Buffalo and Detroit ,where very early in rebuilds at the time and were not trying to compete.....These same teams are not the same pushovers they have been over that same time period and one or two can knock someone out of the race entirely

This...

How anyone believes Toronto with the weakest goalie tandem and one of the oldest top 4 D men in the league can win the division is beyond ridiculous.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Read the explanation guide. It’s all very clear.

I was wrong, I was hung up on projection, which is a future event, vs paced which is past tense. Just think he’s using the wrong word now. Sorry for confusing conversation.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Tampa
Buffalo
Boston
Florida
Ottawa
Toronto
Detroit
Montreal

Folk are severely under-rating the Sabres and over-rating Florida and Toronto. Sabres and Ottawa will be drastically better this year.

Toronto Boston and Florida are in for a rude awakening.

Even as a Sabres fan who is pretty optimistic that they will improve next season, I just don't see them finishing 2nd in the division. That would require breakouts from at least half of their young forwards, plus Comrie proving himself to be a 50+ game starter and posting great numbers.

I don't think it's going to just flip like a switch, I think they'll improve gradually over the next couple of seasons.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

1 Toronto, questions in net but they had those same questions last year and it didn't matter, the offense isn't any worse, the defense isn't any worse, in fact you could argue the defense is better with Giordano being there for a full season the price Florida paid for Tkachcuk is what I feel puts Toronto #1 in the Atlantic.

I don't know if they put up 115 points next year but I don't see them as any worse, I think they can be just as good last year and put up fewer points because I don't think it will take 100 points to get in next year.

2 Tampa, losing Palat and Mcdonaugh hurts a lot but they have been to 3 straight finals they have earned a certain level of respect

3. Florida they lost A LOT in Florida, Weagar, Giroux, Marchment, Huberdeau, Chairot all gone and Duclair is out until January they aren't the same team but the gap between playoffs and non playoffs was so big last year Florida doesn't fall out of the top 3.

4. Ottawa, to me Ottawa is the most improved team in the Atlantic they added 2 top 6 forwards, and a starting goalie that's huge I don't know if they make the playoffs but baring injury they will take a huge step forward.

5. Boston, I could see Boston and Ottawa flipping spots but even if they do Boston is getting old and they have a lot of key injury issues to start the year I could see them having 1 more run but I have them 5th.

6. Detroit, I think they are still a year away but they are doing A LOT of good things,Kubalik, Perron, Husso already added to Larkin, Raymond a Seider I think they need a little more time but they are looking good.

7. Buffalo they did nothing to get better, everybody is talking about how they are a team on the rise but I just don't see it, I don't see a team with 41 year old Craig Anderson and 27 year old Eric Comire, who has 28 games of experience as a team on the rise, I don't think that gets it done, and I know somebody will say it so yes Toronto has questions in net too but unlike Toronto Buffalo doesn't have the offense to deal with that.

I could see Buffalo taking a step back because I think they are going to get killed in net.

8 Montreal, they are an awful team they are in full on tank mode for Bedard

 

[topshelf15]

Topshelf material haha.
Bookmarked some of the gems in this thread for later on in the season.

Lol....I,am sure you guys will...Funny thing is though I can admit when Iam wrong ,will both you and the other homer Barzeel do the same...I know the latter wont as he runs his mouth then hides when proven wrong

 

[topshelf15]

Tampa
Buffalo
Boston
Florida
Ottawa
Toronto
Detroit
Montreal

Folk are severely under-rating the Sabres and over-rating Florida and Toronto. Sabres and Ottawa will be drastically better this year.

Toronto Boston and Florida are in for a rude awakening.

Just not being some of the most frequently injured teams would have had them finishing with more points last season...Health matters,dont understand why some people dont understand this...

 

[topshelf15]

I highly doubt that The Sens will finish ahead of Florida or heck even within 10 points of them really.

Its my prediction,FLD has lost too much from last season,s team...Ottawa in the same light has added far far more up front in nets and on defense

 

[Beezeral]

Lol....I,am sure you guys will...Funny thing is though I can admit when Iam wrong ,will both you and the other homer Barzeel do the same...I know the latter wont as he runs his mouth then hides when proven wrong

I'm still waiting on you to pick some forwards for both teams to compare. I'm not hiding anywhere.

Have you admitted that the Panthers have better defenseman yet?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

My prediction ....for the Atlantic


TB
Tor
Ottawa

one of the rest


Ottawa,s top 9 is very deep,and skilled, likely one of the best in the division...Their defense has some questions on the second pair sure...But not many will be adding a prospect defender of Sanderson,s calibre either....Goaltending has improved by adding another solid goaltender in Talbot to an already decent Forsberg...Most of the teams ahead of them have questions as well or have generally gotten worse...Save maybe TB ...Again we will see what happens ,but if we remain healthy we should be good for a playoff spot

Toronto VS Ottawa in round 1 huh? I'm not going to lie I don't see it this year but I'd be all for it

 

[Habs 4 Life]

Hopefully we are dead last

 

[HarrisonFord]

This...

How anyone believes Toronto with the weakest goalie tandem and one of the oldest top 4 D men in the league can win the division is beyond ridiculous

Toronto went on a 113 point pace with sub 900 goaltending from January onwards. And let’s pretend like Boston was bad with their old #1 D

 

[HomeAndHome]

Top 3 should be these 3 in some order

Toronto
Tampa Bay
Florida

Ottawa is weak on D but forwards are pretty dang good with a solid goalie. Detroit takes a decent step this year as well. Boston will feel the Marchand/McAvoy injuries.

Ottawa
Detroit
Boston

Don't expect much from these two. Buffalo is still pretty young... Montreal might have the worst D group in the league.

Buffalo
Montreal

 

[Golden_Jet]

Toronto went on a 113 point pace with sub 900 goaltending from January onwards. And let’s pretend like Boston was bad with their old #1 D

Yes they seem to outscore problems, and win 6-5.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Yes they seem to outscore problems, and win 6-5.

I mean hey they don’t ask how they ask how many

 

[Blowfish]

Toronto went on a 113 point pace with sub 900 goaltending from January onwards. And let’s pretend like Boston was bad with their old #1 D

Boston old D? Not following. Leaf Goaltending is horrible, their D is subpar, the subpar D and offense will be left protecting the goaltending.

Detroit Ottawa and Buffalo have all improved. The Atlantic is going to be tight! Don't kid yourself thinking leafs will earn 113 points, especially with all teams improving.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Ottawa
Tampa
Toronto
Detroit
Florida
Buffalo
Boston
Montreal

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

7. Buffalo they did nothing to get better, everybody is talking about how they are a team on the rise but I just don't see it, I don't see a team with 41 year old Craig Anderson and 27 year old Eric Comire, who has 28 games of experience as a team on the rise, I don't think that gets it done, and I know somebody will say it so yes Toronto has questions in net too but unlike Toronto Buffalo doesn't have the offense to deal with that.

I could see Buffalo taking a step back because I think they are going to get killed in net.

Buffalo did nothing to get better?

Out - Caggiula, Hagg, Pysyk, Eakin, Hayden, Miller, Butcher, Tokarski, Dell

In - Power, Quinn, Comrie, Lyubushkin, Peterka, plus a healthy Tuch and Samuelsson to start the season.

Most of the players who are removed from the roster are sub replacement level. While most of the adds are young, they might be hard pressed to be as bad as Eakin, Butcher etc. Comrie is also at a minimum = to Tokarski and better than Dell. They still have UPL who may prove ready this season after having good numbers last year in his call-up. Also just to note, they had a winning record with a 40 year old Craig Anderson last season.

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

Yes they seem to outscore problems, and win 6-5.

Ironically the chances the Leafs give up are top 10 in the league against, because they over the last few years have depleted forward depth for defensive additions.

The Leafs have a good defense, above average. The narrative around their D is outdated, the questions are forward depth and goaltending. Their goaltending was bad last year for the vast majority of the year, so I don't expect goaltending to sink them.

I think all of TB FLA TOR are in there, and whoever stays healthiest (key players) for the year probably wins the division. Boston would be in that conversation but we already know of their injury issues to start the year.

Buffalo/Ottawa/Detroit are all going to be better, dragging the point discrepancies down and giving themselves a fighting chance if injuries pile up while they stay healthy. I still think the top class of the division remains though.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Post your own prediction and we’ll compare notes in 6 months. Pretty easy to criticize if you’re not willing to put your own prediction out there.

I will right before start of season. I feel there will still be some player movement from now until then.

 

[Pinto Bean]

My prediction ....for the Atlantic


TB
Tor
Ottawa

one of the rest


Ottawa,s top 9 is very deep,and skilled, likely one of the best in the division...Their defense has some questions on the second pair sure...But not many will be adding a prospect defender of Sanderson,s calibre either....Goaltending has improved by adding another solid goaltender in Talbot to an already decent Forsberg...Most of the teams ahead of them have questions as well or have generally gotten worse...Save maybe TB ...Again we will see what happens ,but if we remain healthy we should be good for a playoff spot

Ottawa's defence doesn't just have some questions. It looks horrible on paper quite frankly. Well below average and surely the main reason why most sport books and fans have the Sens missing the playoffs.

Ottawa has 2 quality top-4 defenders in Chabot and Zub. Sanderson is a nice add but you realize he has never played in the NHL and has been consistently injured for the last year or two. Implying he is just going to jump into the top-4 at the NHL level for 82 games when he's played probably 30 games a season is being way to confident in a rookies transition.

The rest of the d-core is hardly worth mentioning. A bunch of #6 guys who hopefully won't hurt the team too much. Improvements are a must for this team to make any sort of impact in the playoffs.