Predict the Atlantic Standings

[Enga Olly]

Done. You might want to wait for a reply. Will you also take this credibility argument up with the poster that didn't answer my question and instead posted some other stats?

Nope - my mission is to always get critics who shit on the Leafs, to be accurate. Hate all you want but be accurate, no lies, no misinformation. I don't think that's unreasonable.

 

[Beezeral]

Seems like these are all needed again.

 

[Halakitlikethat]

This is tough. Which teams could fall back? What’s going on in Boston? If I had to predict I’d go.

Toronto
Tampa Bay
Florida
Ottawa
Boston
Buffalo
Detroit
Montreal


After the top 3 , it could be a crapshoot really . I’d like to see Buffalo and Ottawa push Boston . I don’t think Detroit and Montreal are there yet this year . I put Ottawa ahead of Boston but who knows.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Detroit is way too thin on superstars/quality depth to be a real threat.

Maybe. We'll see. Obviously for things to go well I'm counting on improvement from some of the younger players.

 

[BruinsFan37]

You'd think from the people in here that Boston is going 3-21 or something absurd like that to start to season (news flash: they're not). Yes there will be nights where Bruins fans will think "if only we had McAvoy and Marchand healthy, we win this game", but they will tread water until they come back.

And while they're not the near sure things (barring catastrophic injuries) that Toronto, Tampa and Florida are,, they're still on paper a better team than they were last year. They added Krejci back and a new HC that hasn't lost the room (Cassidy had lost it so bad, that Krejci played in the Czech Rep. last year).

Meanwhile while yes they've added pieces, none of Buffalo/Ottawa/Detroit strike me as being better than the Bruins this year (at least with the Bruins 100%) When they get Marchand and McAvoy back they (the Bruins) will be at worst sixth, but regardless they won't be far out of fourth (and a potential wild-card spot).

I'd say:

1st) Regular Season Heroes/Playoffs Zeros Toronto
2nd) Tampa
3rd) Florida
4th) Boston
5th) Ottawa
6th) Detroit
7th) Buffalo
8th) "Price-less" Montreal

Toronto captures top spot in the East while the Bruins get the first wild card. Toronto fans breath a sigh of relief at not having the face the Bruins again only to lose in first round again to the wild card team from the Metro (in seven of course).

Tampa and Florida beat the crap outta each other. Doesn't matter who wins, neither team is going far this year.

Boston pulls off an upset of the top team Metro to advance to the second round. Then loses a heartbreaker in the second. Or it would be, if it wasn't also the "last ride" of Bergeron. And I'm gonna enjoy that no matter what.

 

[Gurglesons]

Detroit makes the playoffs IMO.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Meanwhile while yes they've added pieces, none of Buffalo/Ottawa/Detroit strike me as being better than the Bruins this year (at least with the Bruins 100%)

We already know Bruins won't be 100% though. Maybe they can tread water until they are, but November for example looks like a pretty brutal month for them.

PIT, NYR, TOR, STL, CGY, TBL*2, FLA, CAR.. then they start December with a couple of games against Colorado and Vegas.

 

[Yorkshire Leaf]

I’ve been on here about 7 years I think and each off season the narrative on the Bruins has been the same, ‘this is the year they miss the play offs because age catches up with x, y or z’ but it doesn’t and they will easily make the play offs, the also always make a very good addition at the deadline.

Tampa
Toronto
Florida

Top three all within 3/4 points of each other, think all are slightly weaker than last year.

Boston - see above

Ottawa
Detroit

More or less interchangeable, will have good runs and some set backs but not consistent enough to make it into the play offs.

Montreal - players don’t buy into tanking

Buffalo - there is just something wrong with them, should be better than they are.

 

[Dave92]

Leafs will quietly win the division and the cup, quietly.

 

[Yorkshire Leaf]

Leafs will quietly win the division and the cup, quietly.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Yeah he's ranked about 12 on the list, which is not unexpected when you consider the heaters some of the guys get on in the playoffs.

Not sure why it defaulted to Playoff stats.

Click top right corner and change the regular season, which is what we were talking about.

 

[topshelf15]

Seems like these are all needed again. View attachment 579169View attachment 579171View attachment 579170View attachment 579168View attachment 579172View attachment 579173

Please do forwards...Iam sure you will just as forthcoming ...lol

 

[Bouboumaster]

Anything in particular that would make someone come to this conclusion?

The fact that they are among the most terrible teams in the past two decades

 

[topshelf15]

There will be at least two teams that made it last season ,that will not make it this year...Happens almost every season...Add in injuries as most of the top teams were much healthier than the bottom ,along with some pretty big additions by these same teams and the top wont remain static....

 

[zodiacbiller]

Campbell provided a decent amount of value in game 7 if sample size is not being judged, he had a 0.920, it just happened that Vasi was insane - which again - you expect. Relatively you would expect more consistent elite play from Vasi whereas you expect average or below average from Campbell. In games where they are both below average and Campbell is worse, I think you would take that trade 10/10 and need to find a way to convert those games into a series lead. I mean, Quick was insane in game 7, but we found a way to get 2 goals by him and get the win. The team gets the value but the question really is, can the team take advantage of the value.

I don't really care how Campbell did in one particular game - there are terrible goalies who have NHL shutouts. The thread is about the Atlantic division standings. Over the whole of the season, the Leafs will probably not get less value out of their goaltending than they did last year when finishing with 115 points, even if Murray is less talented than Campbell (which I see no evidence of) because Campbell provided very little value. I have no idea what your other stuff about consistency meant, it was incoherent. If you were talking about Vasilevskiy, I wasn't crticizing him, it was a hypothetical. If you meant Campbell, he's not consistent. He sucks.

LOL....Top 9 Ottawa,goaltending equal...Defense equal or slight edge Ottawa

Hmm well, if you say so.

 

[zodiacbiller]

Seems like these are all needed again.

Dom's model tends to line up with what I see on the ice and in the underlying numbers, and I think he's a smart guy, and also that the Panthers' defense is much better than Ottawa's, but we reeeeally need to not get into this "look at the player card!!" thing that's been starting up. There are like a dozen different player value metrics that all say different things, even total value numbers are subject to noise and variance and issues with repeatability, and also they're just big images that take up a lot of space when most of the time nobody means anything deeper than "well WAR says he's good."

 

[topshelf15]

Meh in the end we will see,but its not as cut dry for some teams in the Atlantic as some think it is...There will be movement out of the top 4 this as it is every season almost a certainty

 

[Pavels Dog]

Dom's model tends to line up with what I see on the ice and in the underlying numbers, and I think he's a smart guy, and also that the Panthers' defense is much better than Ottawa's, but we reeeeally need to not get into this "look at the player card!!" thing that's been starting up. There are like a dozen different player value metrics that all say different things, even total value numbers are subject to noise and variance and issues with repeatability, and also they're just big images that take up a lot of space when most of the time nobody means anything deeper than "well WAR says he's good."

Those WAR charts are also incredibly misleading when comparing a great team and a bad team. Forsling is not anywhere near as good as Chabot, but that chart will tell you he actually is.

 

[topshelf15]

Those WAR charts are also incredibly misleading when comparing a great team and a bad team. Forsling is not anywhere near as good as Chabot, but that chart will tell you he actually is.

Some of the top teams are more nervous than others....I have Toronto and TB to make the playoffs for sure if healthy...The rest is anyone,s guess in the Atlantic,I have Ottawa there but they could very well miss again

 

[Golden_Jet]

Delete

 

[Golden_Jet]

Seems like these are all needed again. View attachment 579169View attachment 579171View attachment 579170View attachment 579168View attachment 579172View attachment 579173

A year old, they show for 21/22 projected pace, and actual stats for 20/21.
Yes they are influenced by how good a team is. There is way more to evaluate than Dom’s GSVA.

 

[JohnLennon]

Hilarious to think that teams with losing cultures like Ottawa, Buffalo and Detroit are going to finish ahead of Boston. The Bruins are clearly better then last year when fully healthy with Krejci and Lindholm and they were light years ahead of those teams. The Bruins may get off to a semi slow start but when healthy they are going to be right up their with TB, Florida and TO, there is a considerable gap between the top 4 and the rest.

1. Well Marchand is 34 and is going to miss a few months to injury. Missing your top point-getter from last year is no doubt going to hurt, and missing him for that long and hoping at his age that he can rebound quickly and get in mid-season form by December is optimistic.

2. Then, you're missing your #1 defense for a few months as well. Ask Montreal how it felt to lose their #1 defense last year. I know it won't be for a full season, but losing a #1D is a massive blow, and your right side on defense looks incredibly shallow without him. You also had offseason surgeries to Grzelcyk and Reilly, further hampering the defense to start the year.

3. Finally, you look at your top two centers: 37 years old and 36 years old, one of whom didn't even play in the league last season. They're fantastic players, but they are older and I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a decline from either of them, if not both of them.

...These are the three factors I'm looking at when I make a "bold" prediction that Boston falls to 7th in the division. It is a known rule of thumb in the NHL that your position by American Thanksgiving is almost always representative of whether or not you'll make the playoffs, with a few exceptions. I don't think Boston is in a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving, so can they be an exception? Personally, with the age of their top 6 centers and injuries to key players, I don't think they will be an exception to that rule, and won't be able to catch the rest of the pack.

Of course I could easily be wrong, this is just a prediction and just for fun, so don't let it bother you too much.

 

[Yorkshire Leaf]

Meh in the end we will see,but its not as cut dry for some teams in the Atlantic as some think it is...There will be movement out of the top 4 this as it is every season almost a certainty

Except that going back to 2017-18 it has been the same 4 teams at the top of the Atlantic apart from one year when Florida was 5th and the Covid year when there was no Atlantic division.

 

[LeafGrief]

I will never predict the Bruins to be out of the playoffs until they've missed two years in a row. That team is a defenseman factory and Bergeron still has it. They're thinner and older up front than their Leafs-thrashing heyday, but that's still a playoff team until further notice.

I think the Panthers will slide a fair bit. I just do not rate Tkachuk at all. He's a good player, but he's a direct downgrade from Huberdeau, and losing Weegar is pretty big. Still have plenty of firepower to work with, but I don't like the look of that defense.

Lightning are still elite. Leafs have goaltending question marks, but we did last year too. Sens and Red Wings are looking a lot better, but just like I won't count the Bruins out, I won't count either of those teams in until they have the X by their name in the standings.

The Sabres will win 10 out of their first 12 and then miss the playoffs, as is tradition. Team looks better than yesteryear, but we've been saying that every summer for a decade. Comrie and Craig Anderson in net is even worse than what my Leafs have between the pipes. Habs are rebuilding.

Lightning
Leafs
Panthers

Bruins
Senators
Red Wings
Sabres


Habs

It is inevitable that I will be outrageously and hilariously wrong about at least three of these teams. Which ones? We'll find out!

 

[topshelf15]

Except that going back to 2017-18 it has been the same 4 teams at the top of the Atlantic apart from one year when Florida was 5th and the Covid year when there was no Atlantic division.

Yep, Ottawa ,Buffalo and Detroit ,where very early in rebuilds at the time and were not trying to compete.....These same teams are not the same pushovers they have been over that same time period and one or two can knock someone out of the race entirely