Post-Game Talk: Pred

[Machinehead]

Well, there’s obviously a big gap bt our actual and xgf, but we do have a tendency to be a one dimensional team offensively. Much more so than a team with this much talent should be. Either the PP is lights out, or Fox and Panarin carry us at ES (or the Kid Line in the POs).

So there is the risk we’re improving on the possession side, but teams are just getting better at defending against the handful of dimensions we throw at them when we have puck. That’s what can create the gap in actual and xgf, and if that is indeed the case, then we could be going gray waiting for the “inevitable” reversion to the mean.

Well I'd rather do this than revert back to giving up 90 shot attempts and counterpunching.

 

[irishlaxburger2]

2008 still haunts me. The Pens beat us in 5 and it feels like they had 22 shots the entire series.

The whole run was a farce. The 2008 Penguins were 29th in CF%.

Detroit did the sport a favor not that the sport deserves one.

It’s almost as if CF% isn’t all that predictive. And there’s likely something else way more predictive out there if hockey folks were simply creative enough to find it

 

[PuckLuck3043]

I'm just starting to not see it. You can't tell me what he does well without yelling his age or referring to numbers, because he doesn't do anything well.

You should be able to describe players using their standout skills.

Even middling players have things they're good at.

He has a good shot and is often in good position around the net, at least last year he was. Lets have this conversation in January.

 

[Machinehead]

It’s almost as if CF% isn’t all that predictive. And there’s likely something else way more predictive out there if hockey folks were simply creative enough to find it

It's not perfect but it's more predictive than the standings. The standings are inherently reactive.

 

[Chaels Arms]

When we had this discussion last season about Kakko vs. Lafreniere I said the big positive with Kakko is he has a higher established floor as a player. Even if Kakko never "panned out" he was always going to be, at worst, a solid top six two-way winger. Lafreniere has no similar floor. I don't really see what he's good at. I'm someone who defended Kakko on these boards and the main boards before it became easy to do so this season and even I'm starting to get worried about Lafreniere.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

How is it that the New York Rangers always struggle with simple things.

Like passing, handling the puck, hitting the net or getting the shot through.

Why are we always flubbin about?

TBF other teams struggle with this also. You just don't root for those teams.

 

[Machinehead]

When we had this discussion last season about Kakko vs. Lafreniere I said the big positive with Kakko is he has a higher established floor as a player. Even if Kakko never "panned out" he was always going to be, at worst, a solid top six two-way winger. Lafreniere has no similar floor. I don't really see what he's good at. I'm someone who defended Kakko on these boards and the main boards before it became easy to do so this season and even I'm starting to get worried about Lafreniere.

Apparently he has a good shot. That's what I'm told.

Kakko could be a PPG player this year if God didn't decide he just hates the Rangers this year.

Meanwhile, I've been routinely forgetting that Lafreniere is playing.

 

[Hire Sather]

When we had this discussion last season about Kakko vs. Lafreniere I said the big positive with Kakko is he has a higher established floor as a player. Even if Kakko never "panned out" he was always going to be, at worst, a solid top six two-way winger. Lafreniere has no similar floor. I don't really see what he's good at. I'm someone who defended Kakko on these boards and the main boards before it became easy to do so this season and even I'm starting to get worried about Lafreniere.

It's almost as if if you have two seasons of putting up no production, you're not magically going to become great in the third season.

Kakko and Laf Will be huge disappointments, but we all knew that after last season. There's no magic here. If you're great you show it off the bat or you're just not great. It's that simple.

I mean it was probably clear after half a season. There's no magic switch

 

[irishlaxburger2]

If you force Laf onto PP1 for the rest of the season and let him grow confidence offensively with time and space, I have absolutely no doubt he’d develop into a 60+ point player.

But should the Rangers be willing to do that? I’m not sure. This is where rebuilding and trying to win now are at odds. The kids can’t actually develop quickly unless you let them. But that might mean someone like Chris Kreider gets his feelings hurt or (gasp) not making the playoffs this year.

It’s certainly the correct long term move.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

We might as well be 1,000 points behind the devils because once you behind this late you don't catch them. This is baseball not hockey. We are in huge trouble

I could care less if we catch them. All I care about is being in the top 8 when the season ends. That is very doable but they can't continue to give games away.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Feel bad for Halak man. f***ing played his ass off. What is it with the play in front of our backups? Who TF wants to be a backup for this team??

Dude faced 18 shots or something, poor guy.

 

[Machinehead]

The 2018-19 Blues had the fewest points in NHL on New Year's Eve.

They won the Cup six months later.

 

[Hire Sather]

If you force Laf onto PP1 for the rest of the season and let him grow confidence offensively with time and space, I have absolutely no doubt he’d develop into a 60+ point player.

But should the Rangers be willing to do that? I’m not sure. This is where rebuilding and trying to win now are at odds. The kids can’t actually develop quickly unless you let them. But that might mean someone like Chris Kreider gets his feelings hurt or (gasp) not making the playoffs this year.

It’s certainly the correct long term move.

Develop quickly? It's been years. They aren't going to be impact players

 

[blinknyr182]

if mika kreider panarin fox and 16 don't score 5v5 this team has no chance just like last year no coaching change is fixing that and laf and kakko not taking the next step and producing is basically worst case scenario for this organization

 

[irishlaxburger2]

Develop quickly? It's been years. They aren't going to be impact players

How do you expect them to be impact players without growing offensive confidence on the power play? That’s literally where you get these young talented kids to show their ability with a little extra time and space.

It’s the formula every single other team with top offensive talent they drafted used.

But we think we can just stick them on the 3rd line with other young players and it’s going to figure itself out.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

It's almost as if if you have two seasons of putting up no production, you're not magically going to become great in the third season.

Kakko and Laf Will be huge disappointments, but we all knew that after last season. There's no magic here. If you're great you show it off the bat or you're just not great. It's that simple.

I mean it was probably clear after half a season. There's no magic switch

Different players develop differently. Laf scored 20 goals last year and he just turned 21. He may not be a great player but he could develop into a solid top 6 guy. Kakko is already head and shoulders better than his rookie year.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

The positive spin on this season thus far is that it’s feeling a lot like 2013-14. Team with good underlying numbers but some up and down goaltending and a mediocre record in the first half of the season. That team went on a run in the second half of the year and peaked at the right time at the end of the year. Key is Hank went on a heater starting like early December that year and the lines started really gelling.

Can that happen this year? Let’s hope so.

 

[Hire Sather]

How do you expect them to be impact players without growing offensive confidence on the power play? That’s literally where you get these young talented kids to show their ability with a little extra time and space.

It’s the formula every single other team with top offensive talent they drafted used.

But we think we can just stick them on the 3rd line with other young players and it’s going to figure itself out.

Both players have had plenty of time in the top six or even the top three this season and have minimal production to show for it. They aren't good

 

[irishlaxburger2]

Every year we don’t win the Cup and also don’t do everything in our power to develop the offensive ability of the kids (yes that means PP time and top 6 minutes) is a wasted year

That’s just the reality. We get too caught up in the short term not to realize it though

Both players have had plenty of time in the top six or even the top three this season and have minimal production to show for it. They aren't good

Nobody is scoring 5v5 on our team this year. It’s not just them. We just hold them to a different level of account than everyone else. Which is absurd.

 

[mike14]

Maybe Strome wasn’t all that bad?

He wasn't, we just decided to go in a different direction, which there's nothing wrong with

 

[PuckLuck3043]

if mika kreider panarin fox and 16 don't score 5v5 this team has no chance just like last year no coaching change is fixing that and laf and kakko not taking the next step and producing is basically worst case scenario for this organization

Well yeah. If 5 of your top players don't score than any team would have problems but good coaching and structure can change a lot of the ills of a team and produce better results. BTW Kakko has been really good this year. I don't know what games some people are watching. Definitely not the ones I am watching.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Has there ever been a bigger p***y on the team?

Kadarius Toney without the talent.

 

[blinknyr182]

Well yeah. If 5 of your top players don't score than any team would have problems but good coaching and structure can change a lot of the ills of a team and produce better results. BTW Kakko has been really good this year. I don't know what games some people are watching. Definitely not the ones I am watching.

yes i didnt say he hasnt been good but hes not producing and that was they key to this season secondary scoring from him and laf and it's non existent small steps for him are for sure positive but right now it means nothing

 

[SnowblindNYR]

He's just not that good, we have to accept it at this point. He doesn't have any exceptional skills and his skating is a huge detriment. Of all of the kids, Chytil is by far the best and Kakko is a close 2nd. Lafreniere is a mediocre 3rd liner and Kravtsov would get knocked down by a tropical depression wind gust.

How can Chytil be BY FAR the best with Kakko being a CLOSE second?

 

[Synergy27]

Reaves. Simple. Cascading impact on the lineup. He can’t play.