Speculation: Playoff Lineup

[JT AM da real deal]

We didn't lose to TB last season because of the "marginal impact" that Matthews, Marner, WIlly, and JT made at 5v5 (see below)

Matthews - 7GP/9pts, 2 on PP
Marner - 7GP/8Pts, 2 on PP
Nylander - 7GP/ 7Pts, 2 on PP
JT - 7GP/6pts, 2 on PP

they combined for 22 5v5 points in 28 total games combined. Whereas the remaining 10 forwards on the roster to play a total of 56 games combined for a total 20 all situation points. Those forwards included Bunting, Kerfoot, Engvall, Mickheyev, Kampf, Spezza, Simmonds, Kase, Blackwell, and Clifford.

Point being, we had little to no depth contribution. that needs to change.

secondly, There is absolutely zero chance Alex Kerfoot see's any time in the press box. I can all but guarantee that. He's not missed 1 game in the previous 2 post seasons, and if I am not mistaken he has not even been a HS once in the last 3 seasons under Sheldon Keefe. I just doubt he is going to change that game 1 of the playoffs.

Look at the list of top 8 pt producing forwards from the Stanley Cup winning Colorado Avalanche team last season
View attachment 687512

4 players at or near Pt/game (Rantanen, Mack, Landy, Kadri)
3 players at or near 0.75/game (Nichushkin, Lehkonen, Burakovsky)
2 Near 0.5/game (Compher, Cogs)

That's the formula for scoring in the top 9

4 players at or near Pt/game (Matthews, Marner, JT, Willy)
3 players at or near 0.75/game (Bunts, ROR, Kerf/Knies)
2 Near 0.5/game (Kerf/Knies, Jarnkrok)

there's absolutely no scenario I can see Lafferty or ZAR getting anywhere near 0.5pts/game

We need depth scoring, period. And of the list of names above for Colorado, are they substantially harder to play against then the 9 guys I listed for Toronto? I don't think so personally. It's hardly like Knies is a push over. He plays along the wall and below the dots probably better then Laff and ZAR already

I know you mean well with all da numbers and everything .. but hockey comes right down to a battle of wills in da corners, da walls and for all loose pucks .. it is a hundred little battles in a game to win da WAR and WARRIORS win .. point guys do little .. i mean every team needs 1 or 2 point guys yes they are needed especially on PP they need to do their limited jobs .. but that is not what wins .. D and G win and grit grinder forwards who win da majority of da battles .. playoff hockey is a WAR not a game .. guys and teams that win do what it takes to make sure da battles .. speed and strength generally do it .. like i said Matty Mitch and JT won't do much .. but we will win because we have more warriors than Tampa this year finally

 

[sxvnert]

Jarnkrok Matthews Marner
Tavares O'Reilly Nylander
Bunting Acciari Lafferty
Knies Kampf ZAR
Kerfoot

McCabe Brodie
Gio Holl
Rielly Schenn

 

[ACC1224]

I’m very surprised at how many think Keefe will dress Knies over Kerfoot.
IMO Kerfoot is seen as a fixture by Keefe.

 

[ITM]

Forgot all about him.
Too many bodies for him to climb over, IMO.

I like him over ZAR and Lafferty.

I'd have a very short leash on ZAR and Lafferty and frankly, Kerfoot. Assuming Knies isn't starting - along with Holmberg - I'd be comfortable sitting each of those fourth line starters after one major gaffe, pulling them and then sitting them the next game and replacing them with the kid or Pontus.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I’m very surprised at how many think Keefe will dress Knies over Kerfoot.
IMO Kerfoot is seen as a fixture by Keefe.

Kerfoot is not coming out of any lineup for anyone. I am not sure why people would think that either. Hate him or love him, Kerfoot has been as utilitarian as it comes for our roster. Not to mention he's been one of Keefe's favourite players since taking over as coach.

I think Knies is in the lineup, but not in place of Kerf. ZAR will be the odd man out, and Lafferty will slot down to the 4th line IMO

 

[Twine Tickler]

I know you mean well with all da numbers and everything .. but hockey comes right down to a battle of wills in da corners, da walls and for all loose pucks .. it is a hundred little battles in a game to win da WAR and WARRIORS win .. point guys do little .. i mean every team needs 1 or 2 point guys yes they are needed especially on PP they need to do their limited jobs .. but that is not what wins .. D and G win and grit grinder forwards who win da majority of da battles .. playoff hockey is a WAR not a game .. guys and teams that win do what it takes to make sure da battles .. speed and strength generally do it .. like i said Matty Mitch and JT won't do much .. but we will win because we have more warriors than Tampa this year finally

Of course will over skill is always the case in the playoffs, but how are we so sure that ZAR and/or Lafferty have more of that over Knies? We do know that Knies is leagues above both of them in terms of skill, and has the ability to make a play. We also know that Knies' athletic profile and playing style are exactly of the nature you speak of (gritty, hard hitting...etc).

All I know is that in game 6 of last year's post season, we absolutely peppered Vasy in OT before losing on one of TB's first scoring chances. A couple of our many glorious chances in OT came on a point blank shot in the slot from Ilya Michayev, and another from Kerfoot on a clear break. ie, depth players in a series clinching spot. Now some of those bounces are just gunna fall on the wrong players tapes here and there. That's just the beautiful game of Hockey. That said, I can tell you with 100% certainty that I'd much rather that bounce fall on Knies tape then either of ZAR or Lafferty. It's hardly as if Matt was eased into the NHL. His first game he played a playoff style game against the panthers who needed to win, and a TBL team that was eager to send a message. Both games he looked more then comfortable.

is it a risk? maybe a little for sure. But to suggest he has any less will or grit then Lafferty or ZAR is not entirely accurate.

 

[Enniskillen]

I am sure Knies is sitting game 1. If they f.ck up game 1, he will play.

 

[budzz]

Only thing that scares me about Knies is that he has done a few very dangerous blind back passes. Rookie mistake I am sure but it flashes back to that Kerfoot back pass or even the Galchenyuk pass. It's pone thing to say he's a rookie and we took the chance. But playoffs are a game of inches and one bad goal can turn a series. Risky.

 

[BlackAdam]

We better not see Wayne Simmonds.

 

[TMLAM34]

We better not see Wayne Simmonds.

I think everyone will agree with this lol

 

[IPS]

I’m very surprised at how many think Keefe will dress Knies over Kerfoot.
IMO Kerfoot is seen as a fixture by Keefe.

There's also players down the list from Kerfoot who'd be scratched for Knies before he would.
Keefe has shown to like Kerfoot a lot - which a lot of us don't know why.

 

[mapleleafs34]

I’m very surprised at how many think Keefe will dress Knies over Kerfoot.
IMO Kerfoot is seen as a fixture by Keefe.

Couldn't agree more. Anyone that thinks Keefe would sit Kerfoot for Knies is delusional.

Not saying I agree with it though.

 

[ACC1224]

There's also players down the list from Kerfoot who'd be scratched for Knies before he would.
Keefe has shown to like Kerfoot a lot - which a lot of us don't know why.

Couldn't agree more. Anyone that thinks Keefe would sit Kerfoot for Knies is delusional.

Not saying I agree with it though.

Every fan(most anyway) have a player or two (Holl/Kerfoot for example) that they would like replaced but I don't know how any fan who follows this team can't see how much Keefe likes them and is not going to sit them unless something extraordinary happens.

 

[IPS]

Only thing that scares me about Knies is that he has done a few very dangerous blind back passes. Rookie mistake I am sure but it flashes back to that Kerfoot back pass or even the Galchenyuk pass. It's pone thing to say he's a rookie and we took the chance. But playoffs are a game of inches and one bad goal can turn a series. Risky.

Bad rookie mistakes are probably gonna happen in the playoffs, you just have to hope they do other things to make for up for it.
But that Galcheynyk pass was an exclusive - only he himself is dumb enough for that one. You really don't see that much in the playoffs. I really don't think we see anything of that level from Knies.

 

[Eye Test]

Same lineup but take out ZAR and add knies or lafferty.

And lilly for holl.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

I think ZAR is the likely candidate to be taken out for Knies if he's in the line up frankly.

 

[4thline]

Odds of happening are nil, but:
Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot*-ROR-Nylander
Knies*-Tavares-Jarncrok*
Lafferty-Kampf-Acciari*

Swap the starred wing pairs as necessary

 

[TheDoldrums]

I honestly don't have a strong opinion on if Knies should be in for Game 1. I think there's a reasonable argument for both sides.

There's 12 forwards good enough to play without him and his lack of experience in the system and penchant for risky passes are a potential worry. But he looks pretty good so far and has a lot more to offer on offense and with his size than some of our fringe guys. I think it's a tough call, but he probably gets into the series at some point regardless.

 

[m1ker]

Not sure the combinations but my assumptions are that jarnkrok is with mattews, Zar and Laffarty are starting, schenn and holl are starting

 

[mikeyz]

Whoops sub Acciari for Lafferty and make Lafferty the 13th F.

I think Lafferty and ZAR have developed chemistry in the bottom 6. I hope they’re both in the lineup.

 

[TML Dynasty]

I really wanna get Knies in the lineup somehow but not sure how. Top 6 seems stacked especially with Oreilly/Tavares on same line, bottom 6 we need to be very defensive responsible.

Maybe this in certain games:

Bunting Matthews Marner
Knies Tavares Nylander
Kerf Oreilly Jankrok
ZAR/Laff Kampf Acciari

 

[apollo]

how do you match up vs. Tampa?

 

[crump]

If Lafferty is still banged up or whatever. If they want Knies in there I would go with…

Jarnkrok — Matthews. — Nylander
Bunting — Tavares. — Marner
Knies — ROR — Kerfoot
Lafferty/ZAR. — Kampf — Acciari

McCabe. — Brodie
Rielly. — Schenn
Giordano. — Holl

Sammy
Woll

 

[justashadowof]

Knies, Simmonds - out
Liljegren (sadly), Gustavsson, Timmins - out

Use O'Reilly mostly as the 3rd center, it's his best position. Use Matthews occasionally on the wing with the other centers so Kampf doesn't end up with under 10 minutes TOI.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I really wanna get Knies in the lineup somehow but not sure how. Top 6 seems stacked especially with Oreilly/Tavares on same line, bottom 6 we need to be very defensive responsible.

Maybe this in certain games:

Bunting Matthews Marner
Knies Tavares Nylander
Kerf Oreilly Jankrok
ZAR/Laff Kampf Acciari

Swap ROR and JT.