Speculation: Playoff Lineup

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If Knies is playing, it will be at home where he can be protected from a matchup perspective. So game 2 is the best bet after Keefe sees what the matchups look like.

I still think the probability is low that he plays in round 1.

Anyone who thinks Kerfoot is not playing is out to lunch.

The D is more questionable imo. Timmy was good the last week. Big decision there.
 
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Knies - ROR - Nylander has a xGF of over 70% and Knies has a rel xGF% of 16%... I think we see him playing.

He was with Nylander so the numbers are probably inflated, but he allows us to run three good lines.

I think we may see:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Knies - ROR - Nylander
Kerfoot - Tavares - Jarnkrok
ZAR/Lafferty - Kampf - Acciari

McCabe - Brodie
Rielly - Schenn
Gio - Holl

Samsanov
Woll
 
If Knies is playing, it will be at home where he can be protected from a matchup perspective. So game 2 is the best bet after Keefe sees what the matchups look like.

I still think the probability is low that he plays in round 1.

Anyone who thinks Kerfoot is not playing is out to lunch.

The D is more questionable imo. Timmy was good the last week. Big decision there.
In terms of the D, Keefe isn't going to sit:

Rielly
Giordano
McCabe
Brodie

So it's Holl or Schenn, and I think they really want Schenn's physicality in there. And then we know the fixation on Holl, so I feel like Liljegren is the odd man out to start.
 
Knies - ROR - Nylander has a xGF of over 70% and Knies has a rel xGF% of 16%... I think we see him playing.

He was with Nylander so the numbers are probably inflated, but he allows us to run three good lines.

I think we may see:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Knies - ROR - Nylander
Kerfoot - Tavares - Jarnkrok
ZAR/Lafferty - Kampf - Acciari

McCabe - Brodie
Rielly - Schenn
Gio - Holl

Samsanov
Woll
xGF%?

Knies has played 2 games. There’s no meaning to that stat at the best of times let alone in meaningless games.
 
xGF%?

Knies has played 2 games. There’s no meaning to that stat at the best of time let alone in meaningless games.

3 games. There is meaning to it, it means the line was driving play well.

What other stats do you want to use to say if the line played well?

They looked good together and they scored 2 goals and had one against them.
 
3 games. There is meaning to it, it means the line was driving play well.

What other stats do you want to use to say if the line played well?

They looked good together and they scored 2 goals and had one against them.
He did look good, at times, in somewhat meaningless games.

Teams don’t use those fantasy league stats.
 
He did look good, at times, in somewhat meaningless games.

Teams don’t use those fantasy league stats.

I gave you real stats.

Was the right call not to audition him?

I'm finding it hard to follow your logic.

They played him in the games available, he looked good, that line dominated play (fake stats), and outscored their opponents (real stats).

What stat can I give you? Or are you punishing him for when he signed?

On a side note, teams use those fantasy stats, also I am pretty sure some of the teams that use them the most are Tampa, Leafs, Colorado, and Carolina, but hey, what do those teams know about winning?
 
I gave you real stats.

Was the right call not to audition him?

I'm finding it hard to follow your logic.

They played him in the games available, he looked good, that line dominated play (fake stats), and outscored their opponents (real stats).

What stat can I give you? Or are you punishing him for when he signed?

On a side note, teams use those fantasy stats, also I am pretty sure some of the teams that use them the most are Tampa, Leafs, Colorado, and Carolina, but hey, what do those teams know about winning?
Teams have used stats and analysis for decades. But we have no idea what they measure how they measure them.

Maybe the Leafs think Knies is ready to play, but it’s not because of small sample size with an x%.
 
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In terms of the D, Keefe isn't going to sit:

Rielly
Giordano
McCabe
Brodie

So it's Holl or Schenn, and I think they really want Schenn's physicality in there. And then we know the fixation on Holl, so I feel like Liljegren is the odd man out to start.
In the last few games Holl has been using his large frame to effect. Lili is better but not as physically capable as Holl on the physical part. Atm Holl boxes or better and stops the cycle better and for that reason makes our pairings more balanced
 
Kinda fun to make lines:

Would like to come out flying -
Jarnkrok-Matthews-Marner
Tavares-ROR-Nylander
(To overload the first few shifts)

Then settle into:
Jarnkrok-Matthews-Nylander
Bunting-ROR-Marner (shutdown)
Kerfoot-Tavares-Accari
Zar-Kampf-Lafferty

McCabe-Brodie
Giordano-Liljgren (It'll be Holl)
Rielly-Schenn
 
He did look good, at times, in somewhat meaningless games.

Teams don’t use those fantasy league stats.
You are using the small game sample size to assert your position that Knies can't perform in the playoffs, while willingly dismissing what data there is to look at of the same small sample size that you feel can't make a case for the opposite of your view, as it doesn't fit your narrative.

Of the 2 positions, yours appears to be the weakest because it's based solely on your opinion. You make absolutely no reference to the eye test, which actually does show him as having held his own, nor the analytic data that also shows that he is.

You assert that Knies has yet to play any meaningful games. Again you are wrong, along with your assertion he's played in 2 games, while it's been 3 games. The reasonable conclusion here for you being wrong (giving you the benefit of the doubt) on both points is that you missed the Tampa Bay Lightning game, which was, in fact, highly contested and competitive. For all intents and purposes, it was a playoff caliber game, with both teams dressing strong lineups and no one going through the motions. In that game, Knies was effective, where he was tied for 2nd with 3 SOG's, and had the primary assist on the game winning goal on a very good shot on net that O'Rielly stuffed in the rebound.

What does make your position pass the eye test is that it is consistent with what you typically post in here, which is consistently in the negative and not anything that I typically pay any attention to.

Simply put, 3 games is a very small sample size and no one knows how ANY of our players are going to respond, but based on when Knies has drawn in, he merits consideration to draw on and that he will contribute until he shows otherwise, just like everyone else.

Have a great day! :)

Go Leafs Go!
 
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You are using the small game sample size to assert your position that Knies can't perform in the playoffs, while willingly dismissing what data there is to look at of the same small sample size that you feel can't make a case for the opposite of your view, as it doesn't fit your narrative.

Of the 2 positions, yours appears to be the weakest because it's based solely on your opinion. You make absolutely no reference to the eye test, which actually does show him as having held his own, nor the analytic data that also shows that he is.

You assert that Knies has yet to play any meaningful games. Again you are wrong, along with your assertion he's played in 2 games, while it's been 3 games. The reasonable conclusion here for you being wrong (giving you the benefit of the doubt) on both points is that you missed the Tampa Bay Lightning game, which was, in fact, highly contested and competitive. For all intents and purposes, it was a playoff caliber game, with both teams dressing strong lineups and no one going through the motions. In that game, Knies was effective, where he was tied for 2nd with 3 SOG's, and had the primary assist on the game winning goal on a very good shot on net that O'Rielly stuffed in the rebound.

What does make your position pass the eye test is that it is consistent with what you typically post in here, which is consistently in the negative and not anything that I typically pay any attention to.

Simply put, 3 games is a very small sample size and no one knows how ANY of our players are going to respond, but based on when Knies has drawn in, he merits consideration to draw on and that he will contribute until he shows otherwise, just like everyone else.

Have a great day! :)

Go Leafs Go!
When did I say or assert he couldn’t perform in the playoffs?
 
These lines aren't what I want to see, just what I think Keefe will go with for game 1:

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Knies-Tavares-Nylander
Jarnkrok-ROR-Acciari
Kerfoot-Kampf-ZAR/Lafferty

McCabe-Brodie
Giordano-Holl
Rielly-Schenn
 
Ok ok ok. Game 1:

Knies. Matthews. Marner
Tavares. OReilly Nylander
Acciari. Kampf. Jankrok
ZAR. Kerfoot Laff/Bunts

Sucks to sit bunting but refs have it out for him and we can’t risk it. Doesn’t offer enough to outweigh that for me.
 
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Rielly-Schenn:
39 CF% | 37.5 GF% | 40 xGF%
Just not the kind of numbers you want to see from your #1 offensive defenseman. I don't believe they're a good fit together at all, and just look like an attempt to recreate Rielly-Lyubushkin from last year which was another weak pairing
 
Knies looks like a scratch for game 1. Lines are pretty much what a lot of people thought.
Acciari line might seem weeker at first. I think they will be a hard working fast line. Defense first, but some ability to chip in.
 
Rielly-Schenn:
39 CF% | 37.5 GF% | 40 xGF%
Just not the kind of numbers you want to see from your #1 offensive defenseman. I don't believe they're a good fit together at all, and just look like an attempt to recreate Rielly-Lyubushkin from last year which was another weak pairing
Ugly D setup IMO.
 
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