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Speculation: Playoff Lineup

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I like these looks:

A) Home w Knies:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Knies - O'Reilly - Nylander
Kerfoot - Tavares - Jarnkrok
Lafferty - Kampf - Acciari

---

B) Road w Knies:

Bunting - Matthews - Nylander
Tavares - O'Reilly - Marner
Knies - Acciari - Jarnkrok
Reese - Kampf - Kerfoot

---

C) Home w/o Knies

Bunting - Matthews - Nylander
Jarnkrok - Tavares - Marner
Kerfoot - O'Reilly - Acciari
Reese - Kampf - Lafferty

---

D) Road w/o Knies

Bunting - Matthews - Nylander
Tavares - O'Reilly - Marner
Kerfoot - Acciari - Jarnkrok
Reese - Kampf - Lafferty

---

D-Corps:

McCabe - Brodie
Rielly - Schenn
Gio - Holl
*Liljegren next man in

I think realistically Knies is a risk, and if you're playing him, you want him with skill guys who can also cover him.
 
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Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Kerfoot - Tavares - Nylander
Knies - O'Rielly - Jarnkrok
A.Reese - Kampf - Acciari

Rielly - Brodie
McCabe - Holl
Giordano - Schenn

Samsonov - Woll
 
TMLife17 said:
I like it except I'm not sure Tavares should be playing C on the road.
Click to expand...
At 3C he should be ok. My preference would be to have the same lines both home and away (either of those would be fine although I have a slight preference to Mitch with Matthews).
 


So this is the lineup coming out of morning skate. Looks like they may be running back Knies - ROR - Willy which is very encouraging for Knies. I think that is exactly the line I see Knies being a part of. A line that can play heavy offensive zone minutes. That line could be a real problem for opponents come playoffs. I mentioned it in the preview thread, but I really don't think Matt Knies gets into the lineup in any other capacity. We cannot throw him on the 4th line as we use that 4th line way too much in defensive zone starts.

I like the idea of pairing Matt with ROR specifically. If you really watch ROR shift by shift, you can see how he very rarely cheats the game. He doesn't ever blow the zone, and is almost always in a good position to turn back down the ice should a turnover occur.

Matt is still figuring out what he can and cannot do at the NHL level. Mistakes are inevitably going to happen. I think having ROR playing along side him will really help mitigate those mistakes. Also ROR, Willy and Knies are just an absolute handful when it comes to puck protection. That is a line that you could throw out there to eat 30-40 seconds in the offensive zone no problem. Even if it amounts to nothing, it can be the ultimate neutralizer should the game start to tilt in TB's favor. I absolutely love that line TBH.

Going back to a post from @francis246 yesterday, I think the forward lines he posted are perfect TBH

Bunting - Matthews - Jarnkrok
Kerfoot - Tavares - Marner
Knies - O’Reilly - Nylander
Acciari - Kampf - Lafferty

Matthews will draw the most attention, even though he is arguably on the worst of the top 3 lines. I think that "top line" can still contribute, but even if they play to net zero outcome, you'd have to expect lines 2 and 3 to win their assignments. Those are 3 very strong lines that can be rolled evenly and then you get your big boys their extra touches on the PP. Not to mention Sheldon has always shown a desire to load up at the end of a period, after a PK, or when we are approaching a TV timeout. The big dogs will get their touches, it just makes it harder for TB to play the match up game
 
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Twine Tickler said:


So this is the lineup coming out of morning skate. Looks like they may be running back Knies - ROR - Willy which is very encouraging for Knies. I think that is exactly the line I see Knies being a part of. A line that can play heavy offensive zone minutes. That line could be a real problem for opponents come playoffs. I mentioned it in the preview thread, but I really don't think Matt Knies gets into the lineup in any other capacity. We cannot throw him on the 4th line as we use that 4th line way too much in defensive zone starts.

I like the idea of pairing Matt with ROR specifically. If you really watch ROR shift by shift, you can see how he very rarely cheats the game. He doesn't ever blow the zone, and is almost always in a good position to turn back down the ice should a turnover occur.

Matt is still figuring out what he can and cannot do at the NHL level. Mistakes are inevitably going to happen. I think having ROR playing along side him will really help mitigate those mistakes. Also ROR, Willy and Knies are just an absolute handful when it comes to puck protection. That is a line that you could throw out there to eat 30-40 seconds in the offensive zone no problem. Even if it amounts to nothing, it can be the ultimate neutralizer should the game start to tilt in TB's favor. I absolutely love that line TBH.

Going back to a post from @francis246 yesterday, I think the forward lines he posted are perfect TBH

Bunting - Matthews - Jarnkrok
Kerfoot - Tavares - Marner
Knies - O’Reilly - Nylander
Acciari - Kampf - Lafferty

Matthews will draw the most attention, even though he is arguably on the worst of the top 3 lines. I think that "top line" can still contribute, but even if they play to net zero outcome, you'd have to expect lines 2 and 3 to win their assignments. Those are 3 very strong lines that can be rolled evenly and then you get your big boys their extra touches on the PP. Not to mention Sheldon has always shown a desire to load up at the end of a period, after a PK, or when we are approaching a TV timeout. The big dogs will get their touches, it just makes it harder for TB to play the match up game
Click to expand...


Do you think on the Road keefe would go to the lines I suggested? Because of last change Tampa would be trying to match up against us. Just make that minor tinker of Jarnkrok and Marner swap on the road and let Tampa chase the match ups while we run 4 lines that can attack at all costs
 
francis246 said:
Do you think on the Road keefe would go to the lines I suggested? Because of last change Tampa would be trying to match up against us. Just make that minor tinker of Jarnkrok and Marner swap on the road and let Tampa chase the match ups while we run 4 lines that can attack at all costs
Click to expand...

Bunting - Matthews - Jarnkrok
Kerfoot - Tavares - Marner
Knies - O’Reilly - Nylander
Acciari - Kampf - Lafferty/ZAR

Funny enough, I was just thinking about the same lineup. Obviously having Matthews separated from the other 4 big forwards dramatically changes how teams can match against us, but only concern is if we would be making Matthews too much of an island. We need him also feeling good about what he’s able to contribute. Only going this route for road games would mitigate that risk for sure.
 
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francis246 said:
Do you think on the Road keefe would go to the lines I suggested? Because of last change Tampa would be trying to match up against us. Just make that minor tinker of Jarnkrok and Marner swap on the road and let Tampa chase the match ups while we run 4 lines that can attack at all costs
Click to expand...
I think we can gather a couple things from todays lineup in the morning skate.
I believe Keefe wants Knies - ROR - Nylander to be a thing. I expect that to be a constant for the most part. I also think the 4th line will be relatively constant with XXXX - Kampf - Acciari, with XXXX representing a rotation of Lafferty and ZAR.

Bunting - Matthews - Marner also appears to be the top line that Sheldon is leaning towards using G1. Not sure what he would stand to gain by running out Mitch and Auston tonight and playing them on a line that they wont be on G1. It also kind of makes sense as to why they both rested the same game.

As for the different combos on road and home games, I am not too sure. Last change will matter for sure, but I also don't know how TB can effectively do that given their lack of defensive depth and injury to Tanner Jeanott. I almost feel like Sheldon might potentially be trying to play the Matchup game against them.

so with everything that we see from todays lineup card, and everything that we've seen after Knies arrival, I feel like the G1 lineup is going to look like:

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Knies - O'Reilly - Nylander
Kerfoot - Tavares - Jarnkrok
ZAR/Lafferty - Kampf - Acciari

I think the Tavares line is going to be our matchup line and they will handle the most important defensive zone starts. I am not expecting that line to chip in much offensively, but I do think they will be able to shut the opponent down.
 
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Haven't gone through the four pages, but to OP's post, I'd like to add Holmberg; At least as an extra...
ACC1224 said:
Which 20 do you see Keefe dressing for Game 1?

Assuming 12 - 6, I see.......

Forwards
Matthews Marner Tavares ROR
Nylander Jarnkrok Bunting Kerfoot
Acciari ZAR Kampf Lafferty
Click to expand...
Add: Holmberg.
ACC1224 said:
Defense
Brodie McCabe
Rielly Schenn
Giordano Holl

Samsonov
Woll
Click to expand...
...But I liked his game so much I'd pencil him in to start.

Edited to ask: With Woll and Knies, Holmberg brought up for a look, anyone have any intel why Hoefenmayer wasn't given a cup of coffee? Big points, lots of sandpaper if the PIMs are any indication; Granted I haven't watched a minute of the Marlies this year, so I have no eye-test to confirm or deny.
 
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ITM said:
Haven't gone through the four pages, but to OP's post, I'd like to add Holmberg; At least as an extra...

Add: Holmberg.

...But I liked his game so much I'd pencil him in to start.
Click to expand...
Forgot all about him.
Too many bodies for him to climb over, IMO.
 
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Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Knies-O'Reilly-Nylander
Kerfoot-Acciari-Jarnkrok
AstonReese-Kampf-Timmins

Brodie-Holl
Giordano-Lilejegren
Rielly-Schenn
McCabe (probably rest)

This above from Leaf reporter tweet .. so knowing Keefer he is keeping lines together he wants to start game 1

So line 1 is set
Line 2 sub in JT for Knies as he is giving JT night off
Line 3 is set
Line 4 sub in Lafferty for Timmins as Lafferty still injured

On D Holl slides up to line1 with McCabe getting a rest (smart move)
Line 2 Holl shifts down to line 2
Line 3 is set with Rielly getting PP minutes

That's it folks Keefer has decided it .. i think it will take Tampa in 6 or 7 games
 
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JT AM da real deal said:
Line 2 sub in JT for Knies as he is giving JT night off
Click to expand...
It is definitely possible. But this is also the 2nd game in a row where Knies has lined up with ROR and Willy. I also felt like that line had the run of play for the most part when they were on the ice together at 5v5.

They played a total of 7:10 TOI
60.09% xGF
66.67% HDCF
1 GF
0 GA

Of course this is an incredibly small sample size, but anything involving Matt Knies will be. I think if anything the best data to extrapolate will be the previous game against TB, who is going to be our R1 opponent.

IMO, I genuinely think we are going to see Auston, JT, and ROR have their own lines and run them as our top 3 C's.

To me it is more likely that Acciari is a placeholder for JT today, and then Aciarri drops down in place of Timmons. The reason I say that is this game was always going to be a scheduled day off for JT. Why wouldn't Sheldon run a JT - ROR - Willy line on Tuesday against TB if that is what he is intending to do G1? Instead he went Bunting - JT - Jarnkrok. Of course the flipside of that argument is why didn't Keefe go with Kerf - JT -Jarnkrok that game as they were all in the lineup. To that, I don't have an answer lol. He's not exactly the easiest coach to read.

All I know is I am getting the feeling that Knies is in fact penciled into Sheldon's G1 lineup, and it is on a line with ROR and WIlly. But that is just my gut feeling
 
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Twine Tickler said:
It is definitely possible. But this is also the 2nd game in a row where Knies has lined up with ROR and Willy. I also felt like that line had the run of play for the most part when they were on the ice together at 5v5.

They played a total of 7:10 TOI
60.09% xGF
66.67% HDCF
1 GF
0 GA

Of course this is an incredibly small sample size, but anything involving Matt Knies will be. I think if anything the best data to extrapolate will be the previous game against TB, who is going to be our R1 opponent.

IMO, I genuinely think we are going to see Auston, JT, and ROR have their own lines and run them as our top 3 C's.

To me it is more likely that Acciari is a placeholder for JT today, and then Aciarri drops down in place of Timmons. The reason I say that is this game was always going to be a scheduled day off for JT. Why wouldn't Sheldon run a JT - ROR - Willy line on Tuesday against TB if that is what he is intending to do G1? Instead he went Bunting - JT - Jarnkrok. Of course the flipside of that argument is why didn't Keefe go with Kerf - JT -Jarnkrok that game as they were all in the lineup. To that, I don't have an answer lol. He's not exactly the easiest coach to read.

All I know is I am getting the feeling that Knies is in fact penciled into Sheldon's G1 lineup, and it is on a line with ROR and WIlly. But that is just my gut feeling
Click to expand...
Like I mentioned before I don't think it matters that much either way to outcome of series .. but Acciari Lafferty Reese and Jankrok will ALL be in lineup as we can't afford to lose any grit grinder none of those 4 guys will be out unless injured .. pick 2 of 3 between Kerfoot Bunting and Knies it will be ZERO difference between any of 3 of those guys .. Keefer is an old line coach and i would bet Dubie told him to see what we got in Knies for 3 games .. once it gets real Keefer goes with vets so I would place my money on Kerfoot and Bunting starting over Knies (but again I don't think it makes any difference to team overall)
 
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Even if Knies is the placeholder this game, I can see JT at 3C and one of the others moved to ROR's wing.
 
JT AM da real deal said:
Like I mentioned before I don't think it matters that much either way to outcome of series .. but Acciari Lafferty Reese and Jankrok will ALL be in lineup as we can't afford to lose any grit grinder none of those 4 guys will be out unless injured .. pick 2 of 3 between Kerfoot Bunting and Knies it will be ZERO difference between any of 3 of those guys .. Keefer is an old line coach and i would bet Dubie told him to see what we got in Knies for 3 games .. once it gets real Keefer goes with vets so I would place my money on Kerfoot and Bunting starting over Knies (but again I don't think it makes any difference to team overall)
Click to expand...
To me, of the names you listed above I see the folowing:

Locks for entire playoffs barring injury:
Kerfoot, Bunting, Acciari, and Jarnkrok

Interchangeable:
Knies, ZAR, and Lafferty

I really cannot see any world where any of Kerf, Bunts, or Jarnkrok see any time in the press box at any point in the post season. I put Acciari in that list as well because I think it would need a run of extremely bad play from him to have that happen as well.

As for Knies, ZAR and Lafferty it really comes down to what Sheldon thinks will be the difference maker. If he thinks we need depth contribution, it is very simple and that is Matthew Knies all day, every day. If he is looking to lock things down and play mistake free hockey it will be ZAR or Lafferty.

I think the 1 factor working against Matthew Knies is the fact that he does not kill penalties and the other 2 can, and have done so for us and throughout their NHL careers. It's a major consideration, but it is also one that I don't think should play as big of a factor as some in the media are making out to be. We will have Mitch, Kampf, Kerf, Acciari, Jarnkrok, and one of ZAR/Lafferty in any lineup that includes Matt Knies to kill penalties.

At the end of the day, the decision is more or less about how much risk is Sheldon willing to take with a young player. It's hardly like ZAR and Lafferty play mistake free hockey either. If you look at the Nick Perbix goal from last game as an example, it was a failed clearing attempt by ZAR that resulted in the GA.

the only downside to dressing Knies is that he presents less options to use him in game. You cannot fully trust him to start as many defensive zone starts and it could really f*** us if we have one guy go down with an injury. ZAR and Lafferty should be the 2 jockeying for the last spot in the lineup IMO, and like I said I before I just have a hunch that Sheldon is on that same page with all the interviews I've seen post Knies acquisition and with his lineup cards.
 
With the cap out of the equation for the playoffs, they'll be able to have 7 defencemen on the roster every night. So that allows some more options in-game.
 
Twine Tickler said:
To me, of the names you listed above I see the folowing:

Locks for entire playoffs barring injury:
Kerfoot, Bunting, Acciari, and Jarnkrok

Interchangeable:
Knies, ZAR, and Lafferty

I really cannot see any world where any of Kerf, Bunts, or Jarnkrok see any time in the press box at any point in the post season. I put Acciari in that list as well because I think it would need a run of extremely bad play from him to have that happen as well.

As for Knies, ZAR and Lafferty it really comes down to what Sheldon thinks will be the difference maker. If he thinks we need depth contribution, it is very simple and that is Matthew Knies all day, every day. If he is looking to lock things down and play mistake free hockey it will be ZAR or Lafferty.

I think the 1 factor working against Matthew Knies is the fact that he does not kill penalties and the other 2 can, and have done so for us and throughout their NHL careers. It's a major consideration, but it is also one that I don't think should play as big of a factor as some in the media are making out to be. We will have Mitch, Kampf, Kerf, Acciari, Jarnkrok, and one of ZAR/Lafferty in any lineup that includes Matt Knies to kill penalties.

At the end of the day, the decision is more or less about how much risk is Sheldon willing to take with a young player. It's hardly like ZAR and Lafferty play mistake free hockey either. If you look at the Nick Perbix goal from last game as an example, it was a failed clearing attempt by ZAR that resulted in the GA.

the only downside to dressing Knies is that he presents less options to use him in game. You cannot fully trust him to start as many defensive zone starts and it could really f*** us if we have one guy go down with an injury. ZAR and Lafferty should be the 2 jockeying for the last spot in the lineup IMO, and like I said I before I just have a hunch that Sheldon is on that same page with all the interviews I've seen post Knies acquisition and with his lineup cards.
Click to expand...
Regular season hockey i agree .. but this is a completely different game once playoffs start .. grit grinders play under Keefer's old line ways .. you will see soon .. Matty Mitch and JT will have marginal impact but will need to produce on PP .. grit grinders like ROR Lafferty Acciari Jakkrok Reese will rule and carry da team and all else will ride their backs .. playoffs are 1-0 games generally decided by a tender error or skill guy error .. teams which win are teams which play error free for 60 minutes
 
TMLAM34 said:
Personally, I hate the idea of a Bunting - Matthews - Jarnkrok line. You’re putting your best player with career third liners. No thanks.
Click to expand...

Didn’t Crosby win 3 cups playing with 3rd liners?

Also Matthews has played some of his best hockey this with Jarnkrok on his line.

The problem is we have watched Marner and Matthews together and it’s not great in the playoffs. It’s just something about those two together when we are down or need to clutch out a win just doesn’t work
 
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JT AM da real deal said:
Regular season hockey i agree .. but this is a completely different game once playoffs start .. grit grinders play under Keefer's old line ways .. you will see soon .. Matty Mitch and JT will have marginal impact but will need to produce on PP .. grit grinders like ROR Lafferty Acciari Jakkrok Reese will rule and carry da team and all else will ride their backs .. playoffs are 1-0 games generally decided by a tender error or skill guy error .. teams which win are teams which play error free for 60 minutes
Click to expand...
We didn't lose to TB last season because of the "marginal impact" that Matthews, Marner, WIlly, and JT made at 5v5 (see below)

Matthews - 7GP/9pts, 2 on PP
Marner - 7GP/8Pts, 2 on PP
Nylander - 7GP/ 7Pts, 2 on PP
JT - 7GP/6pts, 2 on PP

they combined for 22 5v5 points in 28 total games combined. Whereas the remaining 10 forwards on the roster to play a total of 56 games combined for a total 20 all situation points. Those forwards included Bunting, Kerfoot, Engvall, Mickheyev, Kampf, Spezza, Simmonds, Kase, Blackwell, and Clifford.

Point being, we had little to no depth contribution. that needs to change.

secondly, There is absolutely zero chance Alex Kerfoot see's any time in the press box. I can all but guarantee that. He's not missed 1 game in the previous 2 post seasons, and if I am not mistaken he has not even been a HS once in the last 3 seasons under Sheldon Keefe. I just doubt he is going to change that game 1 of the playoffs.

Look at the list of top 8 pt producing forwards from the Stanley Cup winning Colorado Avalanche team last season
1681417600154.png


4 players at or near Pt/game (Rantanen, Mack, Landy, Kadri)
3 players at or near 0.75/game (Nichushkin, Lehkonen, Burakovsky)
2 Near 0.5/game (Compher, Cogs)

That's the formula for scoring in the top 9

4 players at or near Pt/game (Matthews, Marner, JT, Willy)
3 players at or near 0.75/game (Bunts, ROR, Kerf/Knies)
2 Near 0.5/game (Kerf/Knies, Jarnkrok)

there's absolutely no scenario I can see Lafferty or ZAR getting anywhere near 0.5pts/game

We need depth scoring, period. And of the list of names above for Colorado, are they substantially harder to play against then the 9 guys I listed for Toronto? I don't think so personally. It's hardly like Knies is a push over. He plays along the wall and below the dots probably better then Laff and ZAR already
 
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