Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread: Clever Thread Title Needed

[Sidney the Kidney]

I'm not sure how people square the idea that Rust isn't pulling his weight at ES with being 3rd on the team in ES points with 28 in 50 games.

Sheary had one phenomenal 3/4 season here where he was better than Rust at ES. Every other year, he stunk. His next best season after '16-'17 was '17-'18 when he had 27 in 79, also on Crosby's line. They're not comparable.

Being third on an injury decimated team isn't saying much. Kapanen, for example, likely would have more ES points than Rust if he didn't miss 13 games. And that's with a fraction of the ice time, and a lot of it without an elite center.

Also, 28 ES points in 50 games isn't very good. Especially when you consider the talent he gets to play with. He's producing at a similar rate to guys like vanRiemsdyk, Gourde, and Hyman, while getting over 100 more minutes than they have, and in two of those cases, playing with vastly superior linemates.

 

[Gurglesons]

Being third on an injury decimated team isn't saying much. Kapanen, for example, likely would have more ES points than Rust if he didn't miss 13 games. And that's with a fraction of the ice time, and a lot of it without an elite center.

Also, 28 ES points in 50 games isn't very good. Especially when you consider the talent he gets to play with. He's producing at a similar rate to guys like vanRiemsdyk, Gourde, and Hyman, while getting over 100 more minutes than they have, and in two of those cases, playing with vastly superior linemates.

Sam Bennett has the same amount of 5v5 points as Rust.

Trade Guentzel and a 1st for Rust.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Sam Bennett has the same amount of 5v5 points as Rust.

Trade Guentzel and a 1st for Rust.

I thought you were just bullshitting but damn, Bennett has absolutely exploded since going to Florida. Good for him.

Being third on an injury decimated team isn't saying much. Kapanen, for example, likely would have more ES points than Rust if he didn't miss 13 games. And that's with a fraction of the ice time, and a lot of it without an elite center.

Also, 28 ES points in 50 games isn't very good. Especially when you consider the talent he gets to play with. He's producing at a similar rate to guys like vanRiemsdyk, Gourde, and Hyman, while getting over 100 more minutes than they have, and in two of those cases, playing with vastly superior linemates.

It's also worth pointing out that of those 28 points, something like 6 of them came with an empty net.

Being on pace for about 35 non-empty net ES points over 82 games, while getting 1st line usage, isn't very good.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I feel like the idea of of "X-type player will work with Sid" isn't really applicable and probably has never been. It's more of "Sid wants X-type player on his line for reasons."

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Sam Bennett has the same amount of 5v5 points as Rust.

Trade Guentzel and a 1st for Rust.

I think people are seeing now what Bennett is capable of when he's not on a team that insists on playing him in the bottom six next to the leftover dregs of the roster.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Well he's absolutely farming empty net points, so I'm really not sure that just pointing out his total ES points is a fair comment. He has 19 5v5 points on the year. His 5v5 points/60 is 13th on the Penguins (1.47), even behind Rodrigues and Sceviour.

I'm not sure at what point EN points became a negative, but there was a time when we couldn't buy EN goals. I'm pretty happy we can actually put teams away now, and I don't think we ought to dismiss or degrade them after pining for them for so long.

As you know, comparing /60 is for players with similar roles and usage.

People say Malkin has been bad this year yet he only has 4 fewer 5v5 points in about 385 fewer minutes at 5v5. Blueger has 3 fewer 5v5 points in 315 fewer minutes at 5v5.

Malkin's naturally held to a different standard. Blueger's having an outstanding year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm not sure at what point EN points became a negative, but there was a time when we couldn't buy EN goals. I'm pretty happy we can actually put teams away now, and I don't think we ought to dismiss or degrade them after pining for them for so long.



Malkin's naturally held to a different standard. Blueger's having an outstanding year.

Empty net goals when the Penguins are already winning count for basically nothing beyond stat padding.

Those 6 or whatever empty net points that Rust has did nothing to cause the Penguins to win those games. It's basically just stat padding and Crosby's line being the line that always gets the opportunity to play in those minutes.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Malkin's naturally held to a different standard

I know it's not really the point of this exchange and I don't disagree with the rest of the post, but man, Malkin's held to an insane double standard.

 

[66-30-33]

I think people are seeing now what Bennett is capable of when he's not on a team that insists on playing him in the bottom six next to the leftover dregs of the roster.

Imagine we got both Bennett and Carter?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It's also worth pointing out that of those 28 points, something like 6 of them came with an empty net.

Being on pace for about 35 non-empty net ES points over 82 games, while getting 1st line usage, isn't very good.

In fairness, Sid and Jake also boost up their ES numbers with EN points. Sid leads the league with 8 points, Jake and Rust both have 6 points.

Which, again, goes back to why I don't think Rust is adding as much offense to that line as it first appears. The other two are producing adequately at ES, while Rust is producing under what you'd expect from a top line player.

Rust has 4 goals into an empty net and 6 goals on the PP. At ES with a goalie in, he's got 10 goals in 50 games. That's really bad for a guy who is kind of relied upon to be the triggerman on that line.

 

[Peat]

If Sullivan is going to stubbornly insist on matching Sid's line versus Bergeron's line, then yes I'd say the defensive ability of the line matters a whole lot. If Sullivan would actually use his checking line to be, you know, a checking line and hard match them versus Bergeron, then less so.

My bad - I didn't mean to imply defence didn't matter. Just that if Rust is a great player, and Sheary a bogeyman of what we could return to if we move on from Rust, then it's a bit odd that defence is the only difference for the line.

Fwiw, I think defence is a pretty important part of Sid's line. Even if Sully - and Sid - moves away from wanting those sort of match-ups, you know other teams won't (not to mention my belief that good defence is often the best seed of good offenc).

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I know it's not really the point of this exchange and I don't disagree with the rest of the post, but man, Malkin's held to an insane double standard.

Speaking for myself it's only frustration.

At this point it's just like... I can't be mad at the guy because from what I can tell it's not at all his fault but the reality is still that dude is a part-timer anymore.

But yeah you'd think that people could see that the guy has often gotten the rather raw end of the stick and never complains. And yet...

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Being third on an injury decimated team isn't saying much. Kapanen, for example, likely would have more ES points than Rust if he didn't miss 13 games. And that's with a fraction of the ice time, and a lot of it without an elite center.

Also, 28 ES points in 50 games isn't very good. Especially when you consider the talent he gets to play with. He's producing at a similar rate to guys like vanRiemsdyk, Gourde, and Hyman, while getting over 100 more minutes than they have, and in two of those cases, playing with vastly superior linemates.

Kapanen would be about even with Rust at the pace he's on, and he's been very good particularly with Malkin. JvR is making 7 mil per, and Gourde is making 5.2 - Rust projects to be in that range salary-wise next year.

Unlike a lot of those players Rust is also used as a defensive foil for Crosby and Guentzel. Whatever RW you use with those two, he better be a damned good defensive player.

 

[Empoleon8771]

As you know, comparing /60 is for players with similar roles and usage.

Okay.

Bryan Rust: 1.47 5v5 points/60 with 15:32 a night at 5v5
Zach Hyman: 2.14 5v5 points/60 with 14:58 a night at 5v5
Gabriel Landeskog: 2.46 5v5 points/60 with 14:58 a night at 5v5
Carter Verhaeghe: 2.47 5v5 points/60 with 12:02 a night at 5v5

In terms of players who average over 14:30 a night at 5v5, Rust ranks 26th of 29 forwards in terms of 5v5 points/60. The only guys below him are Larkin (who's having a downright dreadful year), Hughes and Reinhart.

 

[Empoleon8771]

In fairness, Sid and Jake also boost up their ES numbers with EN points. Sid leads the league with 8 points, Jake and Rust both have 6 points.

Which, again, goes back to why I don't think Rust is adding as much offense to that line as it first appears. The other two are producing adequately at ES, while Rust is producing under what you'd expect from a top line player.

Rust has 4 goals into an empty net and 6 goals on the PP. At ES with a goalie in, he's got 10 goals in 50 games. That's really bad for a guy who is kind of relied upon to be the triggerman on that line.

I generally think this year has been one of Crosby's worst years at 5v5 since around 2015. He has produced at 2017-2018 levels at 5v5 this year, it's just his empty net production is saving his ass from criticism. Just like in 2017-2018 his powerplay production saved his ass from criticism.

I think Guentzel has been decent at 5v5 this year, I think he's been the best player on that line. But Crosby isn't playing to his normal standard and Rust has been legitimately not good.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Empty net goals when the Penguins are already winning count for basically nothing beyond stat padding.

Those 6 or whatever empty net points that Rust has did nothing to cause the Penguins to win those games. It's basically just stat padding and Crosby's line being the line that always gets the opportunity to play in those minutes.

Like I said, we all remember when the Pens couldn't put away teams with empty net goals and wish they could have.

I'm happy they can now. I don't discount EN goals.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Kapanen would be about even with Rust at the pace he's on, and he's been very good particularly with Malkin. JvR is making 7 mil per, and Gourde is making 5.2 - Rust projects to be in that range salary-wise next year.

But I'm talking about actual productivity. JVR and Gourde also don't get to spend all their minutes next to Crosby and Guentzel. Rust should be easily out-producing those guys, given his linemates and usage.

Unlike a lot of those players Rust is also used as a defensive foil for Crosby and Guentzel. Whatever RW you use with those two, he better be a damned good defensive player.

How effective has he actually been as their "defensive foil"? Seems like the games that line looks competent defensively are the nights Crosby has brought his 'A' game. When Crosby is off, Rust doesn't seem to compensate at all to the point I'd consider him their safety valve to cover when they're playing weak defense.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Kapanen would likely not maintain the pace if he played as much as Rust did, but if Kapanen somehow managed to do that, he'd have 36 5v5 points on the year. That's nearly double what Rust has produced at 5v5 this year.

A guy who puts up 40 points while playing 20 minutes a night isn't better offensively than a guy who can put up 35 points while playing 12 minutes a night.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

My bad - I didn't mean to imply defence didn't matter. Just that if Rust is a great player, and Sheary a bogeyman of what we could return to if we move on from Rust, then it's a bit odd that defence is the only difference for the line.

Fwiw, I think defence is a pretty important part of Sid's line. Even if Sully - and Sid - moves away from wanting those sort of match-ups, you know other teams won't (not to mention my belief that good defence is often the best seed of good offenc).

Oh I didn't mean to suggest that was what you implied. I was just sort of building off your post to go on my tangent about Sullivan continually matching Sid versus Bergeron instead of allowing that top line to get favorable match-ups.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I'm not saying Rust is overrated but if you have to suddenly pump EN points as a major pillar of Rust's game while he plays with one of the best in the world in all situations... perhaps there is some legitimacy to questions over his elite RW status.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Okay.

Bryan Rust: 1.47 5v5 points/60 with 15:32 a night at 5v5
Zach Hyman: 2.14 5v5 points/60 with 14:58 a night at 5v5
Gabriel Landeskog: 2.46 5v5 points/60 with 14:58 a night at 5v5
Carter Verhaeghe: 2.47 5v5 points/60 with 12:02 a night at 5v5

In terms of players who average over 14:30 a night at 5v5, Rust ranks 26th of 29 forwards in terms of 5v5 points/60. The only guys below him are Larkin (who's having a downright dreadful year), Hughes and Reinhart.

Landeskog is obviously better than Rust. I don't think anyone has a handle on how good Verhaeghe actually is. Hyman's a good player in his own right.

It's not like this is a bad list by any stretch. I'd happily take any of Larkin, Hughes, or Reinhart too.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Landeskog is obviously better than Rust. I don't think anyone has a handle on how good Verhaeghe actually is. Hyman's a good player in his own right.

It's not like this is a bad list by any stretch. I'd happily take any of Larkin, Hughes, or Reinhart too.

Rust is producing at the same rate while paying with Crosby and Guentzel on a borderline elite team as 3 guys on downright dysfunctional teams who regularly play with bad linemates.

Not sure how that helps your case.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

But I'm talking about actual productivity. JVR and Gourde also don't get to spend all their minutes next to Crosby and Guentzel. Rust should be easily out-producing those guys, given his linemates and usage.

By how much? Crosby and Guentzel have 35 ES points, Rust has 28.

How effective has he actually been as their "defensive foil"? Seems like the games that line looks competent defensively are the nights Crosby has brought his 'A' game. When Crosby is off, Rust doesn't seem to compensate at all to the point I'd consider him their safety valve to cover when they're playing weak defense.

I think Rust is pretty consistently the best defensive player and best forechecker of all 3.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Rust is producing at the same rate while paying with Crosby and Guentzel on a borderline elite team as 3 guys on downright dysfunctional teams who regularly play with bad linemates.

Not sure how that helps your case.

I'd suggest all 3 of them are better than Rust.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Out of curiosity, what are Crosby and Guentzel's 5v5 points/60 this year?

EDIT: Found it.

NHL Stats

Are we ready to declare Tanev better offensively than Crosby?