Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread: Clever Thread Title Needed

[Gurglesons]

OK...2021-22 outlook

Forwards: $46.225 mil - 8 signed
Defense: $26.125 mil - 7 signed
Goalies: $4.750 mil - both signed
Jack Johnson - $1.166 mil
---------------------------------------
$78.266 mil - Need 5-7 Forwards, rest is set if they want to keep it as is.

So you got $3.274 mil of cap space with these guys pending:

RFA: Blueger, ZAR, Zahorna, Jankowski
UFA: Ceci, ERod, Gaudreau, Sceviour

Note: Didn't add Riikola to this because I don't know what his cap hit will be. Assuming he'll get traded, but he could get buried in the minors.
Also Joseph has not been factored into this either, if they choose to use him with the big club next year over Friedman and Ruhwedel.

Zucker is gone. No two ways about it. Not enough $. Either ED or trade.
Hextall has to choose between Petts and Ceci. Right now I'd assume he lets Ceci walk. Petts contract is not easily tradeable and Hex hates dealing away picks unless it's a slam dunk.

At that point you'd have $8.74 mil after shipping out Zuck, hopefully. Blue and ZAR would demand 4.5 mil combined at minimum I'd say. Then you'd have around 4 mil to sign 4 Forwards. Gaudreau and Zahorna at minimum. ERod if he'll take 1.5 or less. Then one more. Sceviour? Angello? Random UFA or return on a trade?

Anyways, that's how I see this summer going. Even if we lose in R1, it will be a long, close series most likely. Hex won't be rebuilding yet after the season we had.

Crosby, Jake, Rust, Kapanen, Zucker, McCann, Carter, Malkin, Tanev and Lafferty are all under contract so your forwards are a lil off. Especially if you throw in Angello and DOC.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Evolving hockey predictions

Teddy
Signs July/August - 2yrs 2.4 mil
Sep/before season - 4yrs 3.375 mil
After season starts - 3yrs 3.15 mil

ZAR
Signs July/August - 3yrs 2.25 mil
Sep/before season - 3yrs 2.4 mil
After season starts - 3yrs 2.45 mil

How they calculate their predictions
Evolving-Hockey

Thanks. I couldn't remember the website that predicted future contracts. For me, I don't have a formula or calculation. I just go by who I think are comparable players.

Out of curiosity, does that website have past predictions on contracts? I'd be curious as to what they predicted for McCann and Riikola.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Because the season before the contract is signed is the most important one, and Blueger is about to get close (if not over) .5 ppg while ZAR hasn't been near that mark for a while.

It is true that this is how contracts are usually determined, with the contract year being the most important one. It's unusual to see a fan having that opinion, but it's not an unheard of thing to say.

Blueger's next contract will pay him 2-3x more than ZAR.

I can't believe anyone is trying to compare ZAR to Blueger. Blueger is a good 3c. ZAR is a solid 4th liner.

ZAR as a winger is equivalently good to Blueger as a center. Blueger is the better player (centers typically are), but not so much that they belong on different lines.

My eyes are the basis I use to make that claim. Teddy Blueger is currently a better player and has a way higher upside then ZAR. ZAR isn’t good, you can talk up his advanced defensive metrics all you want but the guy is an offensive black hole where the play usually dies. He’s maybe a 4th liner, maybe. Teddy Blueger is a good 3rd line center with the ceiling to move up to 2nd line center. ZAR’s ceiling is average 4th liner.

Fine, if we're going to pretend that defense doesn't matter, let's use simple offensive counting stats:

Blueger's career so far: 53 points in 136 games; 0.39 points per game.
ZAR's career so far: 50 points in 157 games; 0.32 points per game.

Wow, a 0.07 points per game discrepancy. That sure justifies an assertion that their ceilings are two lines apart from one another.

Based on those offensive stats, ZAR has already demonstrated that he is at worst a 3rd liner.

Evolving hockey predictions

Teddy
Signs July/August - 2yrs 2.4 mil
Sep/before season - 4yrs 3.375 mil
After season starts - 3yrs 3.15 mil

ZAR
Signs July/August - 3yrs 2.25 mil
Sep/before season - 3yrs 2.4 mil
After season starts - 3yrs 2.45 mil

How they calculate their predictions
Evolving-Hockey

I'm not necessarily a huge fan of those numbers, but I like the ratio between them for the 'After season starts' line. ZAR should be making ~3/4 of what Blueger makes.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Crosby, Jake, Rust, Kapanen, Zucker, McCann, Carter, Malkin, Tanev and Lafferty are all under contract so your forwards are a lil off. Especially if you throw in Angello and DOC.

f*** . Sorry I forgot to count Tanev and Malkin as "signed" because they were lower on the list on CapFriendly, being on IR.

I did count their cap hits and calculated all the numbers correctly. Still, it makes some of my post void. Argh.

But we have more wiggle room than I thought. Need fewer Forwards

Will see if I can do smooth edits...

 

[Randy Butternubs]

In my head I have Blueger at $2.5M to $3M for 2 or 3 years. And I've got ZAR at $1.5M to $1.875M for 2 years.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

In my head I have Blueger at $2.5M to $3M for 2 or 3 years. And I've got ZAR at $1.5M to $1.875M for 2 years.

I'd do it 100%. We know what we have with those guys. They're defensive rocks with sneaky offensive upside. ZAR improved his skating dramatically this year. Odds are very strong that they will be similar players next year. They're comfortable here and know the system. Still very useful even if not producing as much offensively next year.

If we brought in 2 Forwards to replace them then that becomes an unknown, and we would probably become a worse defensive team.

 

[TimmyD]

If they pay ZAR as much as Teddy Hextall and Burke should immediately be fired. ZAR isn’t close to Teddy and this is coming from someone who said they wouldn’t pay Teddy more then $2.5 million because he hasn’t proven he’s worth $3-$3.5 million. The fact that this is even a conversation is crazy to me. One guy is nothing more then a 4th liner. The other is currently a 3c with a ceiling to go higher then that

 

[Extra Texture]

Oshie probably sells a lot of jerseys.

Yeah, he probably would be a big seller for name recognition and from being a WA state local, but I dont think that team is going to have any trouble selling merch hand over fist.

The rabid nature of the NW fanbase + the backlash from the end of covid restrictions are going to be a perfect strom, IMO. If Francis can build a competitive team right off the bat, a la Vegas, Seattle and the Northwest will be wild about them, with or without any "hometown boys" on the roster.

Now, if Francis can pull some deal with the Caps, like "I'll take Oshie if you trade us Orlov for peanuts", that kind of thing, more power to him and that would be a smart way to use cap IMO. That, or Washington bribes him with something good, like they did in the Mantha deal to clear players. Otherwise, let them sit and rot with that contract for another 4 years.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Thanks. I couldn't remember the website that predicted future contracts. For me, I don't have a formula or calculation. I just go by who I think are comparable players.

Out of curiosity, does that website have past predictions on contracts? I'd be curious as to what they predicted for McCann and Riikola.

A tweet said they just added it. I can go back 1 year.

McCann 2 yrs 3.2 mil and Riikola 1 yr 860k. A 2 year term for Riikola was 1.1 mil

So pretty close.

 

[Tom Hanks]

It is true that this is how contracts are usually determined, with the contract year being the most important one. It's unusual to see a fan having that opinion, but it's not an unheard of thing to say.


ZAR as a winger is equivalently good to Blueger as a center. Blueger is the better player (centers typically are), but not so much that they belong on different lines.


Fine, if we're going to pretend that defense doesn't matter, let's use simple offensive counting stats:

Blueger's career so far: 53 points in 136 games; 0.39 points per game.
ZAR's career so far: 50 points in 157 games; 0.32 points per game.

Wow, a 0.07 points per game discrepancy. That sure justifies an assertion that their ceilings are two lines apart from one another.

Based on those offensive stats, ZAR has already demonstrated that he is at worst a 3rd liner.


I'm not necessarily a huge fan of those numbers, but I like the ratio between them for the 'After season starts' line. ZAR should be making ~3/4 of what Blueger makes.

When the term drops to 1 or 2 years the prediction is just under 1.8 mil. That seems more reasonable.

I don’t like giving bottom 6 players more than 2 year deals unless they are a good centre or if they can potentially fit in the top 6 then 3 year term

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

On top of what has already been said, I just realized ZAR is 27 in August.

So there is little to no headroom there, either. Unless he bucks some seriously established trends.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

If they pay ZAR as much as Teddy Hextall and Burke should immediately be fired. ZAR isn’t close to Teddy and this is coming from someone who said they wouldn’t pay Teddy more then $2.5 million because he hasn’t proven he’s worth $3-$3.5 million. The fact that this is even a conversation is crazy to me. One guy is nothing more then a 4th liner. The other is currently a 3c with a ceiling to go higher then that

ZAR doesn't get enough respect on this board. He's a lot better defensively than an average 4th liner. And he is scoring an inordinate amount of goals for one this year too. 18 goal pace over 82 games. Keep in mind he gets 67% D-zone starts.

People may not like it here, but he's made a strong case to earn a lot more than minimum.

 

[Peat]

I don't agree with this idea ZAR's and Blueger's ideal deployments/overall deployment are wildly different given how much time they've spent together over the last two seasons. Whatever line they've been - me, I'd call it 3rd - they've both done it well.

The one clear edge I see for Blueger over ZAR is that Blueger creates a lot more of his own offence. ZAR will produce but he'll produce if given scoring situations; Blueger will create them. He's more of a driver in that respect.

That said, there's a clear edge for ZAR as a possession driver. A really big edge; when you split the two over the last two seasons, ZAR's xGF% is 12% higher. Which translates onto the scoreboard, where the GF% is higher for ZAR. Now, I don't know exactly what other factors have gone into play there, but the discrepancies are too big for me not to think it isn't the players themselves to a sizable degree. Tbh, I'd not really looked that hard at those stats before, and I think the case for us missing ZAR if he goes is stronger than we think.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I mean I'm not trying to disrespect the guy. He's been a good 4th line player for this team and I like homegrown talent.

But he is what he is and at 27, provided we're looking down the barrel of a ~2M dollar deal... he can go hunt for his just rewards contract somewhere else.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

On top of what has already been said, I just realized ZAR is 27 in August.

So there is little to no headroom there, either. Unless he bucks some seriously established trends.

Yep, as is Blueger. ZAR is five days older.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yep, as is Blueger. ZAR is five days older.

A valid point. But (and I know this has already been discussed) centers are simply more valuable than wings.

I think Teddy is about topped out, for the record. And I really like the guy. But he is solidly a 3C. If he wants too much then frankly I'm in the same boat with him that I am with ZAR. Both are nice pieces. Both should be dealt with cautiously owing to where the cap is and the team window still standing slightly ajar.

 

[MrBrightside]

A valid point. But (and I know this has already been discussed) centers are simply more valuable than wings.

I think Teddy is about topped out, for the record. And I really like the guy. But he is solidly a 3C. If he wants too much then frankly I'm in the same boat with him that I am with ZAR. Both are nice pieces. Both should be dealt with cautiously owing to where the cap is and the team window still standing slightly ajar.

Blueger is the European Casey Czikas. Good enough to play 3C, but if you can have him as your 4C, your depth down the middle becomes a massive plus.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Blueger is the European Casey Czikas. Good enough to play 3C, but if you can have him as your 4C, your depth down the middle becomes a massive plus.

I like this comparison, yeah.

I think Blueger is a potential edge a team could leverage. I see ZAR more as a very competent piece to a depth line. It isn't a matter of disrespect or whatever... of course ZAR isn't a league min player. But decisions have to be made and every single 100K counts, particularly now.

 

[Peat]

A valid point. But (and I know this has already been discussed) centers are simply more valuable than wings.

I think Teddy is about topped out, for the record. And I really like the guy. But he is solidly a 3C. If he wants too much then frankly I'm in the same boat with him that I am with ZAR. Both are nice pieces. Both should be dealt with cautiously owing to where the cap is and the team window still standing slightly ajar.

The difference there (imo) is that we've seen more of ZAR with talent than we have of Blueger. ZAR can hang as a scoring line third wheel for a little if needed due to injuries but no one much cares for it. Blueger has flashed more offence without that blessing, and there's a curiosity about where he'd be if given better deployments.

I agree neither are guys we can give too much to. We can give them a fair deal but that puts their names on the block the moment things go wrong/more important guys need raises - hopefully we can get them to give discounts - if they're pushing hard for the max, then bon voyage.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

The difference there (imo) is that we've seen more of ZAR with talent than we have of Blueger. ZAR can hang as a scoring line third wheel for a little if needed due to injuries but no one much cares for it. Blueger has flashed more offence without that blessing, and there's a curiosity about where he'd be if given better deployments.

This is very true. Although it's ugly as hell it's still something he HAS done. Though I will say that Blueger not having that same chance only makes me wonder more haha

 

[Empoleon8771]

To expand on a post I made last night, I don't conceptually have an issue with giving Blueger a fat contract in a vacuum, but the issue is the Penguins really need to stop overpaying depth players by a little bit of money because that money adds up. I'd be much more okay with overpaying Blueger if you also got rid of Tanev and ZAR and ran with something like Zohorna-Blueger-Lafferty, but I'm definitely not interested in giving Blueger a sizable deal if he's still going to be playing with Tanev and/or ZAR. Especially if they're re-signing ZAR.

I'd absolutely peak at the McCann contract, which I already think is generous towards Blueger because I think McCann is better than Blueger. If Blueger wants significantly more than that, I'm probably looking at Tanev's contract to get out of to pay Blueger. Or I'd just explore Blueger's trade market instead.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Blueger is the European Casey Czikas. Good enough to play 3C, but if you can have him as your 4C, your depth down the middle becomes a massive plus.

Would argue above average 3C, especially if you use him in a more offensive capacity and let him put up more points.
Having him at 4C is a total luxury.

And like Peat mentioned, give him better linemates and it will become more apparent.

 

[TimmyD]

ZAR doesn't get enough respect on this board. He's a lot better defensively than an average 4th liner. And he is scoring an inordinate amount of goals for one this year too. 18 goal pace over 82 games. Keep in mind he gets 67% D-zone starts.

People may not like it here, but he's made a strong case to earn a lot more than minimum.

I don’t think he should be paid minimum. But I also don’t think he should make $2.5 million either. He should probably make around $1.5-$1.75 million (like any average 4th liner gets these days). The Penguins also shouldn’t be the team that pays him that...he also isn’t as good as Blueger and should not be paid the same as him either. That’s what the entire argument was

 

[Goalie_Bob]

I could see both signing one year deals at little bit of a reduced rate that then allows them to be UFA next offseason. And it would also allow the Pens to sign them to extensions after the season has started and I think by then the Pens will have a better handle on the contracts for Letang and Malkin and where the cap may be for 2022-2023.

Like they did with Pettersson.

 

[TimmyD]

It is true that this is how contracts are usually determined, with the contract year being the most important one. It's unusual to see a fan having that opinion, but it's not an unheard of thing to say.


ZAR as a winger is equivalently good to Blueger as a center. Blueger is the better player (centers typically are), but not so much that they belong on different lines.


Fine, if we're going to pretend that defense doesn't matter, let's use simple offensive counting stats:

Blueger's career so far: 53 points in 136 games; 0.39 points per game.
ZAR's career so far: 50 points in 157 games; 0.32 points per game.

Wow, a 0.07 points per game discrepancy. That sure justifies an assertion that their ceilings are two lines apart from one another.

Based on those offensive stats, ZAR has already demonstrated that he is at worst a 3rd liner.


I'm not necessarily a huge fan of those numbers, but I like the ratio between them for the 'After season starts' line. ZAR should be making ~3/4 of what Blueger makes.

Teddy has more points in 20 less games played while also not getting to play in an offensive role. ZAR got to play extended amounts of time in the top 6 due to injuries. He played with both Sid and Geno because guys were hurt and still hasn’t put up more points then Teddy even though he has 20 games in hand on him. Teddy Blueger is a better hockey player the Zach Aston-Reese. Teddy Blueger plays a more important position and has more upside then ZAR so Teddy Blueger should get paid more money. It’s pretty simple stuff