Prospect Info: Pittsburgh Penguins Prospects Thread: 2023-2024 Edition

[SEALBound]

Broz now at 12 in 13. That's only 8th on his team so lets not get super excited but it is at least some sign he might still be alive.

I'm not sure there's much redeeming value in him to be honest. I think he'll be a throw in at some point just to move on. After NCAA...maybe a shot in the ECHL?

 

[steelcityassault]

I'm not sure there's much redeeming value in him to be honest. I think he'll be a throw in at some point just to move on. After NCAA...maybe a shot in the ECHL?

Not even an AHL player... Sheesh

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Denver is on ESPN+ sometimes this year and last year and I’ll put it on in the background- I like Broz. He’s a good player. I still think he has a chance at the NHL. His main problem outside of being a super streaky scorer is size (not height) and explosiveness. He can be bumped off the puck too much because he’s slight and doesn’t quite have the 4 way explosion to mitigate it. Does look a little thicker this year.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Nailers stat watching update:

Svejkovsky 6+8 in 8 games.

I'm on mobile so I don't feel like typing the rest out. The only disappointments scoring wise are Nickl and Ansons.

 

[steelcityassault]

Nailers stat watching update:

Svejkovsky 6+8 in 8 games.

I'm on mobile so I don't feel like typing the rest out. The only disappointments scoring wise are Nickl and Ansons.

Might be checking out a game soon, I'll keep an eye out

 

[Darren McCord]

Nailers stat watching update:

Svejkovsky 6+8 in 8 games.

I'm on mobile so I don't feel like typing the rest out. The only disappointments scoring wise are Nickl and Ansons.

isnt anson with WBS? he just scored last game

 

[KareemTrustfund]

I'm not sure there's much redeeming value in him to be honest. I think he'll be a throw in at some point just to move on. After NCAA...maybe a shot in the ECHL?

If he continues the pace he’s on now he will undoubtedly get an ELC.

 

[chethejet]

To me Pens just selling out for 12 years was good and not so good. Eventually one has to pay the piper. Look Shero brought in too many has beens for too high a cost. GMJR had a decent blend until his holy grail of getting that 3rd line center was a disaster. Hextall man did he disappoint. Dubas is smart, and I think he will give this roster as much help as he can. But not at the expense of futures. So outside of the center drafted last year who hopefully adds the size and strength to be a number 2 type center down the road. Not much top 6 talent in the system. No problem with a rebuild if they are smart about it.

 

[SEALBound]

If he continues the pace he’s on now he will undoubtedly get an ELC.

Maybe. He's 21. We would expect a 21yo 2nd round pick to do well in the NCAA. PPG would be the bare minimum expectation. I'm not convinced they sign him anytime soon. They have until Aug. 15, 2025 which will be a couple of months after his college career has concluded so...I guess they'll see then.

Unfortunately, his stats don't speak well for him.

To me Pens just selling out for 12 years was good and not so good. Eventually one has to pay the piper. Look Shero brought in too many has beens for too high a cost. GMJR had a decent blend until his holy grail of getting that 3rd line center was a disaster. Hextall man did he disappoint. Dubas is smart, and I think he will give this roster as much help as he can. But not at the expense of futures. So outside of the center drafted last year who hopefully adds the size and strength to be a number 2 type center down the road. Not much top 6 talent in the system. No problem with a rebuild if they are smart about it.

Here's the issue I have with this statement - go back and look at all of the draft picks made for the picks we gave away. I looked all the way back to like 2007. I look at the pick made and up to 5-6 slots after because you never know what the rankings are. I think since 2007, there were like 2 maybe 3 times where we would have missed out on an impact player (but that also assumes they would have been the top ranked "BPA" for the Penguins". One example is when we trade down to get Reaves from St. Louis. Jason Robertson was taken at 39. Would we have drafted him? Likely no because they had Luazon as their top-ranked guy in that area but it speaks to have few and far between there are "misses" because we traded away a pick. No prospect has amounted to anything that isn't very replaceable for cheap in free agency.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

isnt anson with WBS? he just scored last game

Could be. But under 0.5 PPG in the ECHL for a forward doesn't bode well. That is if my memory serves me correctly.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Maybe. He's 21. We would expect a 21yo 2nd round pick to do well in the NCAA. PPG would be the bare minimum expectation. I'm not convinced they sign him anytime soon. They have until Aug. 15, 2025 which will be a couple of months after his college career has concluded so...I guess they'll see then.

Unfortunately, his stats don't speak well for him.

Stats are not the be all end all, but I think you need to look at the current Penguins that are NCAA alums and their college numbers.

If anything I would say Broz’s #s have “met expectations” for his draft position. A solid C grade. I think we are all singing a different tune if he plays USHL in his D+1 too.

 

[Darren McCord]

Maybe. He's 21. We would expect a 21yo 2nd round pick to do well in the NCAA. PPG would be the bare minimum expectation. I'm not convinced they sign him anytime soon. They have until Aug. 15, 2025 which will be a couple of months after his college career has concluded so...I guess they'll see then.

Ehh Disagree. He just turned 21 last month and is almost a ppg. If he ends the year over a ppg that is not bad. He wont even be 22 yet by the time next season starts. You can worry about his production more then. But I still think he is on pace to get an ELC.

 

[SEALBound]

Stats are not the be all end all, but I think you need to look at the current Penguins that are NCAA alums and their college numbers.

If anything I would say Broz’s #s have “met expectations” for his draft position. A solid C grade. I think we are all singing a different tune if he plays USHL in his D+1 too.

Let's start with DOC and ZAR...

He's the 8th leading scorer on his team. Massimo Rizzo is clocking in at 25pts in 14gp as a 22yo 7th rounder. Jack Devine at 24pts in 14gp as a 7th rounder as a 20yo. Being a 2nd round pick potting 13 in 14 at 21...it's not great. I would say there's nothing in his play since his draft that suggests he meets expectations of a 2nd round pick. A 7th rounder and we might be excited. 2nd round? Bust unless there is a miraculous turn around.

 

[Peat]

I think if I'm right, D+3 ZAR was a 23 in 31 guy and DOC 26 in 31. I think Sheary is 27 in 34. Rust is definitely 34 in 41 in D+3.

Broz's numbers aren't super encouraging but they are consistent with a guy who could reach the show.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Let's start with DOC and ZAR...

He's the 8th leading scorer on his team. Massimo Rizzo is clocking in at 25pts in 14gp as a 22yo 7th rounder. Jack Devine at 24pts in 14gp as a 7th rounder as a 20yo. Being a 2nd round pick potting 13 in 14 at 21...it's not great. I would say there's nothing in his play since his draft that suggests he meets expectations of a 2nd round pick. A 7th rounder and we might be excited. 2nd round? Bust unless there is a miraculous turn around.

My whole point is that it’s nothing to get excited about. But when an objectively good career for a 2nd round pick is just playing 200 NHL games, and his numbers fall in line with current players who’s career I’d deem acceptable outcomes at that draft slot- I also don’t understand saying Broz is already a bust barring miracle. Feels dramatic. Like I said before- I think he has a chance of being a player, idk if he will be.

A second round pick is really not that high of a pick. The drop off from the 1st round is insane in the NHL.

This article scratches the surface

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities – DobberProspects

 

[SEALBound]

My whole point is that it’s nothing to get excited about. But when an objectively good career for a 2nd round pick is just playing 200 NHL games, and his numbers fall in line with current players who’s career I’d deem acceptable outcomes at that draft slot- I also don’t understand saying Broz is already a bust barring miracle. Feels dramatic. Like I said before- I think he has a chance of being a player, idk if he will be.

A second round pick is really not that high of a pick. The drop off from the 1st round is insane in the NHL.

This article scratches the surface

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities – DobberProspects

I don't think it was a good draft pick to begin with. There wasn't much Broz had shown prior to his draft year that suggests he should have been taken that high. But he was so that is the benchmark for how he shall be judged. Relative to being taken that high, he's struggled mightily at the NCAA level. To the point where I don't think he will get an ELC. MAYBE an ELC to go to Wheeling for a year but I have big reservations on him ever seeing AHL or NHL ice.

You're right now, drafts are crapshoots. Which is why most players are judged on "potential" which means "based on our wisdom and a large data set before now, do we think this kid will grow into an NHL player?" The higher the potential, the higher the pick. The higher the pick, the higher the expectations. This isn't that far from reality.

I think the idea of "well Broz isn't doing great but not all 2nd round picks make the NHL" is not a great argument. Like, I have no idea what do make of that connection. It's not unreasonable to judge current prospects based on draft position. I expect more from Broz than say, Kalle Kangas. If a 7th round pick does jack squat in whatever league they are in, so be it. A 7th is a lottery pick. A 2nd round pick is very different as 1st, 2nd, and even 3rd round picks tend to be the foundation for which teams rebuild their prospect pools. We don't have the luxury for 2nd round picks to be fizzling out with angst.

And as you pointed out, there's a sharp decline in NHL success after the 1st round. So yeah, 2nd round picks aren't automatically destined for the NHL. I would suggest it's even MORE difficult for NCAA players who have historically struggled at the NCAA level to make the NHL. On rare occurrences, guys will break out at a 22yo, rock the NCAA, and get a contract ala DOC and ZAR but I think they are the exception and certainly not the rule. Broz is going to have to put together a bit more than 12pts in 13gp for the rest of the season (and into next year) before the red flags for bust are lowered.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Relative to being taken that high, he's struggled mightily at the NCAA level. To the point where I don't think he will get an ELC. MAYBE an ELC to go to Wheeling for a year but I have big reservations on him ever seeing AHL or NHL ice.

This is crazy to me. I don’t agree with anything here. No point in debating anymore though. Agree to disagree.

 

[Darren McCord]

I don't think it was a good draft pick to begin with. There wasn't much Broz had shown prior to his draft year that suggests he should have been taken that high. But he was so that is the benchmark for how he shall be judged. Relative to being taken that high, he's struggled mightily at the NCAA level. To the point where I don't think he will get an ELC. MAYBE an ELC to go to Wheeling for a year but I have big reservations on him ever seeing AHL or NHL ice.

McKenzie literally had him ranked 43rd overall. He was top 12 in scoring in the USHL. At the time Knives had worse numbers than him and went a spot before him in the draft.

None of what you said to start there is true. He was picked lower than expected

 

[Gurglesons]

Could be. But under 0.5 PPG in the ECHL for a forward doesn't bode well. That is if my memory serves me correctly.

Ansons has been very disappointing for me. Thought he was going to be Blueger 2.0...

 

[SEALBound]

2021-22 Univ. of Minnesota NCAA 36 6 5 11
2022-23 Univ. of Denver NCAA 40 10 18 28
2023-24 Univ. of Denver NCAA 13 4 8 12

Numbers don't really lie. 11pts in 36gp is not great. The story was that he was buried in the lineup due to depth so he went to UofD...and then does 28 in 40.

Knies went PPG in the NCAA at 18 after being drafted. He then made the Olympic team and World Jrs team. Then followed it up with another PPG season. So to compare the two in an effort to say "well Broz isn't a bust because Knies!" is ludicrous.

I mean, we can agree to disagree if you'd all like. But my stance that Broz is highly unlikely to be an NHL player stands. I have doubts on the AHL as well. I could see the ECHL or a European league though.

 

[Gurglesons]

2021-22 Univ. of Minnesota NCAA 36 6 5 11
2022-23 Univ. of Denver NCAA 40 10 18 28
2023-24 Univ. of Denver NCAA 13 4 8 12

Numbers don't really lie. 11pts in 36gp is not great. The story was that he was buried in the lineup due to depth so he went to UofD...and then does 28 in 40.

Knies went PPG in the NCAA at 18 after being drafted. He then made the Olympic team and World Jrs team. Then followed it up with another PPG season. So to compare the two in an effort to say "well Broz isn't a bust because Knies!" is ludicrous.

I mean, we can agree to disagree if you'd all like. But my stance that Broz is highly unlikely to be an NHL player stands. I have doubts on the AHL as well. I could see the ECHL or a European league though.

Bryan Rust had 11 points in 40 games in his sophomore year.

Wonder how the AHL and ECHL are going for him.

 

[Darren McCord]

2021-22 Univ. of Minnesota NCAA 36 6 5 11
2022-23 Univ. of Denver NCAA 40 10 18 28
2023-24 Univ. of Denver NCAA 13 4 8 12

Numbers don't really lie. 11pts in 36gp is not great. The story was that he was buried in the lineup due to depth so he went to UofD...and then does 28 in 40.

Knies went PPG in the NCAA at 18 after being drafted. He then made the Olympic team and World Jrs team. Then followed it up with another PPG season. So to compare the two in an effort to say "well Broz isn't a bust because Knies!" is ludicrous.

I mean, we can agree to disagree if you'd all like. But my stance that Broz is highly unlikely to be an NHL player stands. I have doubts on the AHL as well. I could see the ECHL or a European league though.

You miss the point. I wasn't comparing him to Knives post draft year. You said Broz shouldn't have been picked where he was and I said that's just wrong. He was consistently ranked 40-50 and we got him at 58. I used Knives as reference since they were comparables during their draft years and Knives was actually ranked lower but taken higher.

 

[SEALBound]

You miss the point. I wasn't comparing him to Knives post draft year. You said Broz shouldn't have been picked where he was and I said that's just wrong. He was consistently ranked 40-50 and we got him at 58. I used Knives as reference since they were comparables during their draft years and Knives was actually ranked lower but taken higher.

Okay, you made the point. I still didn't like the pick at the time, still don't like it now.

This entire Broz discussion started based on me calling him a bust unless there is a big turnaround. Do you have anything that refutes that?

 

[Darren McCord]

Okay, you made the point. I still didn't like the pick at the time, still don't like it now.

This entire Broz discussion started based on me calling him a bust unless there is a big turnaround. Do you have anything that refutes that?

I mean no because I don't need to. His numbers have gone up every year since being drafted. He is a low second round pick who just turned 21 a month ago whose numbers have gone up every year. Has he blowed the doors off no. Is he progressing find for a prospect yes. So no he isnt a bust yet.

2021-22 Univ. of Minnesota NCAA 36 6 5 11
2022-23 Univ. of Denver NCAA 40 10 18 28
2023-24 Univ. of Denver NCAA 13 4 8 12

 

[SEALBound]

I mean no because I don't need to. His numbers have gone up every year since being drafted. He is a low second round pick who just turned 21 a month ago whose numbers have gone up every year. Has he blowed the doors off no. Is he progressing find for a prospect yes. So no he isnt a bust yet.

2021-22 Univ. of Minnesota NCAA 36 6 5 11
2022-23 Univ. of Denver NCAA 40 10 18 28
2023-24 Univ. of Denver NCAA 13 4 8 12

As a late round pick, I would agree. For a 2nd rounder, I disagree. For forecasting/predicting a potential (likely) NHL player, I disagree. Others that have been in a similar situation or were drafted in similar slots - let's say Knies - produced significantly better. I would suggest that in order for him to be a likely NHL candidate, we should be seeing a much higher level of production than what we are seeing. Just under PPG in your D+3 at 21 in the NCAA doesn't inspire confidence in me.