Prospect Info: Pittsburgh Penguins Prospects Thread: 2023-2024 Edition

[CheckingLineCenter]

It’s extremely easy to say he likely wont be an NHLer. And I actually agree with that sentence. But it’s easy to say because 2/3 of players in his draft slot will not be NHLers. I completely disagree with the counting stat methodology used to get there and saying he maybe can play in the ECHL when he’s 21. It’s going to take years to know if he was a failed pick or not.

If Broz fails to get a contract it will because he tailed off this year and wasn’t a Dubas pick. If he fails to be an NHL player it will be because of his talent and play, not his NCAA counting stats.

 

[Ryder71]

Bryan Rust had 11 points in 40 games in his sophomore year.

Wonder how the AHL and ECHL are going for him.

Maybe he's an oulier?

 

[Freeptop]

I think the comparison tools that look at points scored at different levels and try to project whether players will be NHLers or not based on that are going to end up having a rough time for the next few years as the effects of the pandemic continue to cast a shadow on prospects at all levels.

Development for players is going to be all over the place as Covid impacted them, their family, their teammates, their coaches... and that's without even going into cancelled games and/or seasons.

And that's going to have effects on things beyond just the pandemic years themselves, as once their development gets set behind during those years, it will take a while to really catch up. (Really, any schooling should be looked at the same way, not just athletic development).

I think we're going to look back at the last few years of drafts at some point in the future and see them ending up all over the place. You can already see this a bit with even the 2019 draft, since so many of those players were affected in their D+1 and D+2 years.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

Ansons has been very disappointing for me. Thought he was going to be Blueger 2.0...

Eh, not a surprise. Saw one game of his in the Memorial Cup and he couldn't skate, so I didn't put any stock in him after that.

 

[Ryder71]

Yager and Pickering are disappointing me. After a strong start Yager has been a PPG player, that's not acceptable, he better wake the f*** up!

 

[chethejet]

Yager was hands down the best player at the prospect camps. I do think he has the hands and shot to be a good NHL player. But that is conditioned on him adding size, strength, weight. He is roughly 6 feet tall, and his frame can add 15 pounds in say 3 years. I am still hopeful Poulin can be that bigger 3rd line center by next year. Maybe starting on the 4rh line and playing up when Lars is gone.

 

[SEALBound]

It’s extremely easy to say he likely wont be an NHLer. And I actually agree with that sentence. But it’s easy to say because 2/3 of players in his draft slot will not be NHLers. I completely disagree with the counting stat methodology used to get there and saying he maybe can play in the ECHL when he’s 21. It’s going to take years to know if he was a failed pick or not.

If Broz fails to get a contract it will because he tailed off this year and wasn’t a Dubas pick. If he fails to be an NHL player it will be because of his talent and play, not his NCAA counting stats.

I don't disagree with the first part. That's fair.

But let's play a game of "which is more likely".

Which is more likely to happen:
NCAA player who is less than a PPG in his D+3 year in the NCAA (and historically a 0.57 PPG player in the NCAA) makes the NHL
or
NCAA player who is less than a PPG in his D+3 year in the NCAA (and historically a 0.57 PPG player in the NCAA) does not make the NHL

Yes, anything can happen. He can turn a corner and still become an impact player. Crazy things happen all the time. But the fact remains, Broz has played himself into a "extremely unlikely to make it" position. There really is no disputing that. Historically, based on production for forwards, he's not produced well enough at the NCAA level to be a good candidate to make the NHL. That is hardly a controversial statement to make. In fact, I would suggest it is more absurd to suggest a career 0.57 PPG forward in his D+3 season WILL make the NHL.

And not just you CLC, but what are you guys even arguing when it comes to Broz?

Yager and Pickering are disappointing me. After a strong start Yager has been a PPG player, that's not acceptable, he better wake the f*** up!

Uh hu.

If Yager was clipping along at 13pts in 22gp as a 21yo in the WHL...what would you say?

 

[Peat]

The thing about the counting stat methodology for Broz is that yes, most times, he doesn't turn into an NHLer.

But there are plenty of NHLers who were at the same point at the same age. His stats aren't abandon hope all ye who enter or bust.

He is in that band of probably not but maybe.

Am I happy with his progress? I don't think so. Would I want them to pick him again in a redraft? No. But, doesn't mean he's a bust. Nor does Knies knocking out of the park for a late 2nd rounder.

 

[Ryder71]

I don't disagree with the first part. That's fair.

But let's play a game of "which is more likely".

Which is more likely to happen:
NCAA player who is less than a PPG in his D+3 year in the NCAA (and historically a 0.57 PPG player in the NCAA) makes the NHL
or
NCAA player who is less than a PPG in his D+3 year in the NCAA (and historically a 0.57 PPG player in the NCAA) does not make the NHL

Yes, anything can happen. He can turn a corner and still become an impact player. Crazy things happen all the time. But the fact remains, Broz has played himself into a "extremely unlikely to make it" position. There really is no disputing that. Historically, based on production for forwards, he's not produced well enough at the NCAA level to be a good candidate to make the NHL. That is hardly a controversial statement to make. In fact, I would suggest it is more absurd to suggest a career 0.57 PPG forward in his D+3 season WILL make the NHL.

And not just you CLC, but what are you guys even arguing when it comes to Broz?


Uh hu.

If Yager was clipping along at 13pts in 22gp as a 21yo in the WHL...what would you say?

I would say he's an embarrassment to the league, to his family and to this organization. He should feel a lot of Shame if that were the case. Shame!

 

[SEALBound]

The thing about the counting stat methodology for Broz is that yes, most times, he doesn't turn into an NHLer.

But there are plenty of NHLers who were at the same point at the same age. His stats aren't abandon hope all ye who enter or bust.

He is in that band of probably not but maybe.

Am I happy with his progress? I don't think so. Would I want them to pick him again in a redraft? No. But, doesn't mean he's a bust. Nor does Knies knocking out of the park for a late 2nd rounder.

If he was dman or displayed some other asset other than just being a skilled wing, it would be different. I mean, if you see highlights or game footage and he's the second coming of Patric Hornqvist or Tom Wilson or Milan Lucic, that would be a completely different discussion. But when you're that basic skilled winger, not overall tall or heavy, production is damn near the only thing you can really hang your hat on.

I would say it's exceedingly rare for guys with his stat line to make it if there isn't an extra impact attribute.

I would say he's an embarrassment to the league, to his family and to this organization. He should feel a lot of Shame if that were the case. Shame!

Glad we are on the same page.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It'd be nice if, at some point, one of our prospects would be among the league leaders in production at their level. Can't remember the last time that happened.

Goals and points aren't everything, but f***...they're something. A team like Dallas can regularly grab guys with great offensive ceilings all over the draft board and we can't seem to get a single one. We're drafting for tweeners.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

For what it's worth (not much) Hockey Prospecting finally updated the Pens players rankings and no longer include Justin Almeida at like #2 or something absurd:

 

[Andy99]

It'd be nice if, at some point, one of our prospects would be among the league leaders in production at their level. Can't remember the last time that happened.

Goals and points aren't everything, but f***...they're something. A team like Dallas can regularly grab guys with great offensive ceilings all over the draft board and we can't seem to get a single one. We're drafting for tweeners.

Our coach doesn’t like great offensive players…we need guys who can chest snipe and get their shots blocked regularly

 

[Empoleon8771]

A 23% of Hallander being a star when he has 6 points in 21 games in the SHL as a 23 year old seems....optimistic

 

[Randy Butternubs]

A 23% of Hallander being a star when he has 6 points in 21 games in the SHL as a 23 year old seems....optimistic

Yeah, Hockey Prospecting sucks. Instant regret with that purchase.

Almeida still with a high NHLer %. That site sucks so bad.

 

[Jacob]

Pickering vs. Yager tonight

 

[Darren McCord]

Pickering vs. Yager tonight

Yager had a hatty

 

[Jacob]

Here’s all 3

 

[Freeptop]

It'd be nice if, at some point, one of our prospects would be among the league leaders in production at their level. Can't remember the last time that happened.

Goals and points aren't everything, but f***...they're something. A team like Dallas can regularly grab guys with great offensive ceilings all over the draft board and we can't seem to get a single one. We're drafting for tweeners.

Ilyin, Jarventie, Plante and Tankov are all from the last three drafts, and are all late-round picks that potentially have high ceilings. Of course, they also are all potential busts.
In previous drafts, they went for players like Svejkovsky, Ansons, Legare, Puustinen and Almeida.

Unfortunately, sometimes when you swing for the fences, you strike out.

I only went back as far as the 2018 draft, as I feel like 2018 was when the team had a bit of a shift in how they drafted, in that they seemed to start targeting more high-risk, high-reward types in the later rounds. When looking at 2017 and earlier, it certainly looks like they went for "safer" picks more often than not (it didn't really produce much more in the way of NHL players, though).

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Ilyin, Jarventie, Plante and Tankov are all from the last three drafts, and are all late-round picks that potentially have high ceilings. Of course, they also are all potential busts.
In previous drafts, they went for players like Svejkovsky, Ansons, Legare, Puustinen and Almeida.

Unfortunately, sometimes when you swing for the fences, you strike out.

I only went back as far as the 2018 draft, as I feel like 2018 was when the team had a bit of a shift in how they drafted, in that they seemed to start targeting more high-risk, high-reward types in the later rounds. When looking at 2017 and earlier, it certainly looks like they went for "safer" picks more often than not (it didn't really produce much more in the way of NHL players, though).

Enh, that doesn't jibe with me. None of these guys were especially productive or considered especially skilled. The last player who really fit that criteria was Sprong, and we rode him out of town on a rail.

Probably not coincidentally, 2015 was the last year we drafted an NHL regular forward.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Yeah, Hockey Prospecting sucks. Instant regret with that purchase.

Almeida still with a high NHLer %. That site sucks so bad.

sorry for laughing at you nubs, but lol.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Lol prospects

It'd be nice if, at some point, one of our prospects would be among the league leaders in production at their level. Can't remember the last time that happened.

Goals and points aren't everything, but f***...they're something. A team like Dallas can regularly grab guys with great offensive ceilings all over the draft board and we can't seem to get a single one. We're drafting for tweeners.

Shitty scouting? Drafting the types that are the Pens identity aka Sully turds.

 

[SEALBound]

With the assumption that the skill translates well, Yager is exactly what this team needs on the 3rd line. Or even 2nd if you bump Rakell down. I'm excited to potentially get him here next year.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

With the assumption that the skill translates well, Yager is exactly what this team needs on the 3rd line. Or even 2nd if you bump Rakell down. I'm excited to potentially get him here next year.

He's likely going to need at least one more year. He needs to add 10-15 pounds and get stronger to be able to last in the NHL.

 

[SEALBound]

He's likely going to need at least one more year. He needs to add 10-15 pounds and get stronger to be able to last in the NHL.

I think 10-15lbs is a 3-4 year process. He skates and moves very well. You don't want to wreck that in a year by adding 15lbs on your frame. Muscle or not.