Dipsy Doodle
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Prospect Info: Pittsburgh Penguins Prospects Thread: 2023-2024 Edition
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Gurglesons
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CheckingLineCenter
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You’re moving the goalposts here. You wanted guys post first round that really produced in their leagues. Pre-draft - you can’t take a bigger swing on stats/skill in the late second round than Addison. Post draft - Ilyin is a great example of a massive explosion.
Dipsy Doodle
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From the first post, I said I wished the Pens targeted more highly-skilled players who could finish among league leaders in scoring at lower levels. That has happened very infrequently relative to other teams.
Yeah, the Pens have seemed to have an interest in finding two way players since Sullivan became coach probably because he hates offense only players…but it’s not smart drafting…offensive talent is the thing you really can’t coach…take the highly skilled player and try to develop his defense, like we did when we selected Sprong…if it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work but always pick the most skilled player first
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To be fair though, those players are usually identified fairly early and drafted higher than what we typically pick unless you just get flat out lucky. That said, often times the league leaders in leagues like OHL, WHL, QMJHL, etc are over-aged kids that didn't make the AHL or got drafted in later rounds. Typically they would in that 20-21yo range and not too often they end up making it big. You want that 17yo that did very well for being young and then at 18, show PPG+ while improving. Not unlike Yager at the moment. He's not the league leader or even close but who cares? \
WHL, top 15 in scoring - the drafted players are all 18-19 and majority are low 2nd round picks. The other leaders, mostly undrafted 20yos. So league leaders in lower leagues isn't always the best indicator.
Freeptop
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I'm genuinely curious - which highly skilled players who could finish among league leaders in scoring at lower levels do you feel the Pens passed up in the past, say, 5 drafts?
Also, what's the criteria for "among the league leaders"? Top 5? Top 10? Top 25?
What lower levels count? Only Major-Junior and NCAA?
I'm not trying to play gotcha here - these are things I'm not as aware of, so I'm trying to get a better gauge on prospects here.
CheckingLineCenter
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do you have the math on the bolded (per pick basis)? Not sure I buy that.
Either way why does it matter? Drafting/developing is about getting NHL players, not junior scorers.
Edit: the whole reason I’ve been refuting you is that we have the lower level scorers and they haven’t done much either.
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Gurglesons
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Seems like BS as others have called out. 2017 is the only draft where I see this happening.
I too am curious as to whether there's some objective backing to this. There's not a shortage of Pens picks recently with gaudy production for their age or big reputations for skill.
Caser
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Sergei Murashov got his first KHL shutout win today, stopped 29 shots.
Dipsy Doodle
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Just in that window, guys like Kaliyev and Brink in 2019 stand out, and Perreault this past year.
Any lower levels apply. High production in junior leagues or good production relative to age/experience in pro Euro leagues, like Kulich in 2022.
Basically, we defer to so-called "well rounded" players more often than not over higher end offensive skillsets, probably with the intent of hedging our bets if they don't pan out as top 6 forwards, which certainly lines up with Sullivan's one-size-fits-all "work your way up the line-up" philosophy. Our last 3 1st rounders fit that mold - we play it safe. Tough to find diamonds in the rough that way.
We need to prioritize higher ceilings rather than higher floors.
SomeDude
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UFA prices are going to be insane this summer. GMs have the shakes from not being able to blow cap space on bloated anchor contracts for like 3 years.
Freeptop
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So, you're looking for top 10 finishers in their leagues the year they're drafted (Brink was 3rd in the USHL, while Kaliyev was 6th in the OHL). Poulin was 20th in the QMJHL, so clearly you're not looking for top 25.
As a side note, Legare was 8th in the QMJHL in 2019, and the Pens traded up to get him in the third round.
the thing with yager, he wants to be another Ron Francies. he want to be good at defense, good at setting up his wingers, good at face offs. and a good goal scorer. instead of looking for the quickest way into the nhl. and that would be a goal scoring winger. so that makes him hard to judges and compare him to others. imo
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Yeah, overall development has many factors. I'm sure there's a long list of skill sets that scouts and player development guys have to monitor him. That said, in a league like the WHL, the points should be coming regardless of the type of player you intend to because because you have to show the ability to drive offense. And not just possession but actual production. Unless you want to become a 4th line center or defensive 3rd line center but I thinkn that sells him short a bit.
Jacob
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Dipsy Doodle
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I wouldn't be quite so concrete with the thresholds, but it's about right. The Q is kind of a dump.
We've been playing it safe by regularly prioritizing "well rounded" play at the expense of skill, and that has compromised our chances of adding guys who can make an impact.
Freeptop
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So, roughly around top ten, except in the QMJHL, which doesn't count because it "is kind of a dump". Got it.
Which, if they were all draft eligible, would constitute around, what, 70 players total? (OHL, WHL, QMJHL, USHL, Swedish, Finnish and Russian Junior Leagues) Granted, you won't get to 70, since most of the top ten are usually filled with overagers, rather than draft eligible, so let's say somewhere around 50.
So who do you target after the second round?
Dipsy Doodle
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I'm not sure what your intent is here.
I never said that the Pens had to target these types of players exclusively, and obviously teams don't draft each league's top scorers in order.
They simply need to place a bigger emphasis on skill and production that they have, because the result of the last 10 years is a milquetoast group that caps out as tweeners, and we don't even have a steady pipeline of cheap, reliable bottom of the line-up players for our bunting efforts.
Are you happy with this team's yield at the draft table over the last 10 years? They've maximized their draft potential?
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oh yeah! I'm just say'en there's a lot more to it than just points
Sidney the Kidney
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I don't know if it's specifically about offensive production, but I often wonder why very few of our prospects have that "dynamic" element to their game. Even the so-called "scorer" types like Legare project to be more like a Mike Hoffman-type (best case scenario) and not necessarily a player who drives offense.
On a semi-related note, I think that's the difference between why a guy like Mitch Marner panned out into a star versus a guy like Dylan Strome. Both put up big numbers in their draft year, but Marner had that dynamic element where you watch both guys and Marner just seemed electric with the puck. Strome was just a guy who could pass really well given time and space, and at the junior level that was enough for him to excel. But even in their draft years I had my doubts about Strome being a star because he just lacked that dynamic offensive game that projects to superstardom at the next level.
Caser
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Jacob
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Freeptop
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I honestly was just trying to get a better gauge on what you think, and how you think they should do better. I really wasn't trying to setup an argument. Believe it or not, that is possible on the Internet!
In terms of my opinion: I find it really difficult to judge the team's drafting over the last ten years. They've had all of four first round picks in that time, half of which were in just the last two years. And the other two were late first rounders. Where the Pens have been drafting, there usually aren't top-end prospects available. Which is part of why I was asking you the questions I was - I was hoping for tips on things to look for when drafting in later rounds!
That said, they had a particularly bad run there, from 2014-2017 where I agree they were mostly drafting for safety, and it didn't work. I do think that starting in 2018 they started targeting more skilled players (based on scouting reports, not just stats). Addison is now playing regularly in the NHL. Almeida busted, but he was towards the top of scoring in his League in Juniors. Hallander might have had a shot if he hadn't gotten impatient. Legare and Puustinen were definitely targeting players who looked to have high grade shots. Even Poulin looked like they were targeting a potential power forward. Svejkovsky was someone who hung out around the top of the scoring charts in Juniors, as well (for a fourth round pick, that's pretty good!) Blomqvist and Clang both could end up being good picks, still. I think it's still too soon to judge any of the more recent picks than that, particularly due to Covid messing all sorts of things up.
Really, though, I think a big chunk of their problem has been more on the development side. Taking these kids who have the potential skills, and making sure they get the most out of them. I don't think they've really done that very well. Sprong was a particularly egregious example of that. He'd have flashes, but it took how many years and teams before he was even a regular in the NHL? I have some hope that things might get better there, since that is an area where there has been a lot more change in staffing (both in changing who was there, and in terms of adding more personnel there, particularly after FSG bought the team).
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