Prospect Info: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Jrs., Int'l, etc. [The Final 2022, First 2023 Edition]

[deadhead]

Risto is playing pretty well, after HE WAS BENCHED.
TDA is now on the 3rd pair.
There's accountability for everyone.

But contracts matter in the short-run, even if you want to get rid of someone, you also want to inflate their value so you can get rid of them at low cost.

So do options, if York is out of shape or not mentally prepared, it's costless to send him to LHV. And to bring him back.

 

[Beef Invictus]

York 'proved' himself in a small sample at the end of the season when the Flyers were playing out the string.
CF 45.72%, xGF 49.68% -14. Not bad for a rookie, but not good enough I'm guaranteeing him anything.
If I'm a new HC, I'm not relying on that sample.

And here comes the cherrypicking.

Hey, how come a handful of practices are a solid measure of a player, but 500+ games isn't?

 

[deadhead]

A handful of practices simply tells you who's ready RIGHT NOW, notice York went from LHV to the top four in a few weeks.

And occasionally a player from bad team(s) develops with better coaching.
So far so good with Risto, we'll see how far he can sustain it. Given we're stuck with him, a true fan would hope for improvement.

 

[Beef Invictus]

A handful of practices simply tells you who's ready RIGHT NOW, notice York went from LHV to the top four in a few weeks.

And occasionally a player from bad team(s) develops with better coaching.
So far so good with Risto, we'll see how far he can sustain it. Given we're stuck with him, a true fan would hope for improvement.

Clearly, it doesn't. If it did, the team wouldn't get these calls wrong all the time.

 

[Curufinwe]

York 'proved' himself in a small sample at the end of the season when the Flyers were playing out the string.
CF 45.72%, xGF 49.68% -14. Not bad for a rookie, but not good enough I'm guaranteeing him anything.
If I'm a new HC, I'm not relying on that sample.

The new HC relied on Zamula's preseason sample of four games to put him on the team over York.

Worked out great.

2022 Preseason ice times

11 Konecny - 18:03. 13 Hayes - 18:00, 17:27, 21:14. 15 Anisimov - 18:40. 17 MacEwen - 10:43, 11:21, 12:25. 20 Marody - 13:51 21 Laughton - 16:09, 18:29, 19:03. 22 Brooks - 16:39, 14:16, 11:03. 25 van Reimsdyk - 19:29, 16:48, 15:20. 26 Roussel - 9:55, 10:43. 36 Sandin - 14:40. 42 Hodgson - 7:46...

forums.hfboards.com

45 York - 20:56, 22:30, 19:20, 24:12, 20:02.
47 Attard - 18:36, 20:31, 14:54, 16:08.
54 Zamula - 15:27, 14:32, 18:57, 17:28.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Jvr had 34 points in 32 games his freshman year and Gauthier has 24 in 22. Once apon a time veteran players were prospects some of us followed on this site. Jvr also played center that year.
11 goals in 32 games vs 14 in 22 means one guy looks better as a goal scorer.

Always interesting to see such an in depth and detailed break down of a prospects game.

 

[Rebels57]

Always interesting to see such an in depth and detailed break down of a prospects game.

What? You don't think the 2 goal difference 16 years ago is relevant? Are you crazy?

 

[deadhead]

Right now, it's hard to say anyone drafted after Gauthier will end up a better player.
The best bets are Jiricick, maybe Korchinski or Mintyukiiov on defense.
No forward has shown more than Gauthier so far.
Heck, Geekie, Mateychuk, Letterimaki and Ostlaund haven't shown more than Kaspar.

#6 Jiricick, big RHD 26g 5-16 21 AHL
#7 Korchinski 34g 6-41 47 in the WHL LHD [loaded team, 7 players ppg+]
#8 Kasper 41g 8-12 20 in the SHL
#9 Savoie 41g 20-35 55 in the WHL
#10 Mintyukiov 49gg 18-47 76 in the OHL LHD
#11 Geekie 43g 21-23 44 in the WHL
#12 Mateychuk 47g 4-45 51 in the WHL
#13 Nazar 80g 43-62 105 USHL/USDP
#14 McGroatty 28g 10-13 23 U of Michigan
#15 Letterimaki 29g 3-6 9 Allsvenskan
#16 Ostlund 28g 7-14 21 Allsvenskan

 

[BigToe]

Right now, it's hard to say anyone drafted after Gauthier will end up a better player.
The best bets are Jiricick, maybe Korchinski or Mintyukiiov on defense.
No forward has shown more than Gauthier so far.
Heck, Geekie, Mateychuk, Letterimaki and Ostlaund haven't shown more than Kaspar.

#6 Jiricick, big RHD 26g 5-16 21 AHL
#7 Korchinski 34g 6-41 47 in the WHL LHD [loaded team, 7 players ppg+]
#8 Kasper 41g 8-12 20 in the SHL
#9 Savoie 41g 20-35 55 in the WHL
#10 Mintyukiov 49gg 18-47 76 in the OHL LHD
#11 Geekie 43g 21-23 44 in the WHL
#12 Mateychuk 47g 4-45 51 in the WHL
#13 Nazar 80g 43-62 105 USHL/USDP
#14 McGroatty 28g 10-13 23 U of Michigan
#15 Letterimaki 29g 3-6 9 Allsvenskan
#16 Ostlund 28g 7-14 21 Allsvenskan

Have you watched any of these guys this season?

 

[Magua]

Right now, it's hard to say anyone drafted after Gauthier will end up a better player.

If by “hard to say” you mean we don’t all have crystal balls, yes.

If by the numbers game, it’s really not. It’s almost always the likeliest outcome that the field will produce multiple better players, let alone a single one.

And that’s for players with more draft day certainty than Gauthier. You say this as if he hasn’t been outplayed by his own late 1st linemate at the WJC. A lot of players are doing very well, with a lot of outcomes available, so you’ll forgive me for not being persuaded by you haphazardly saying this.

 

[deadhead]

No. Just saying it's not like anyone drafted after him is making a huge splash that would say "oops."
Doesn't mean they might not turn out better, but pick one forward on that list you'd take over Gauthier right now.

Point is if you ignore size, his production as a freshman in a major college program is more than respectable, especially given BC isn't exactly loaded with talent, a couple 3rd rd picks and a bunch of late round picks - Michigan it ain't.

If by “hard to say” you mean we don’t all have crystal balls, yes.

If by the numbers game, it’s really not. It’s almost always the likeliest outcome that the field will produce multiple better players, let alone a single one.

And that’s for players with more draft day certainty than Gauthier. You say this as if he hasn’t been outplayed by his own late 1st linemate at the WJC. A lot of players are doing very well, so you’ll forgive me for not being persuaded by you saying this.

You mean the guy drafted a couple spots before him.
The whole point is who they could have drafted instead, not who they wished fell to them.

 

[WIP CALLER]

No. Just saying it's not like anyone drafted after him is making a huge splash that would say "oops."
Doesn't mean they might not turn out better, but pick one forward on that list you'd take over Gauthier right now.

Point is if you ignore size, his production as a freshman in a major college program is more than respectable, especially given BC isn't exactly loaded with talent, a couple 3rd rd picks and a bunch of late round picks - Michigan it ain't.


You mean the guy drafted a couple spots before him.
The whole point is who they could have drafted instead, not who they wished fell to them.

I'm pretty sure he was referring to Snuggerud with him being a late first and all..

 

[Magua]

You mean the guy drafted a couple spots before him. The whole point is who they could have drafted instead, not who they wished fell to them.

No, I don’t mean that. And I said what I meant.

 

[flyersnorth]

No. Just saying it's not like anyone drafted after him is making a huge splash that would say "oops."
Doesn't mean they might not turn out better, but pick one forward on that list you'd take over Gauthier right now.

Point is if you ignore size, his production as a freshman in a major college program is more than respectable, especially given BC isn't exactly loaded with talent, a couple 3rd rd picks and a bunch of late round picks - Michigan it ain't.


You mean the guy drafted a couple spots before him.
The whole point is who they could have drafted instead, not who they wished fell to them.

I'd say Jiricek is making a huge splash. Highest PPG rate among rookie defensemen in the AHL and he just turned 19. When compared to all defensemen, he's 6th.

The question is did the Flyers draft Gauthier because they truly felt he was the best player available? Or were they trying to fill an organizational need at center?

Even in the case of filling an organizational need, one could argue that they are in desperate need of a true #1 defenseman. They've been trying to fix that for years. And Jiricek happens to be right-handed.

Time will tell. I hope Gauthier turns into a stud, and if he can do it at center, even better.

 

[Rebels57]

Even in the case of filling an organizational need, one could argue that they are in desperate need of a true #1 defenseman. They've been trying to fix that for years. And Jiricek happens to be right-handed.

Time will tell. I hope Gauthier turns into a stud, and if he can do it at center, even better.

Assuming he stays healthy, my money is on Jiricek being a bigger impact, harder to find player than Gauthier.

 

[BigToe]

No. Just saying it's not like anyone drafted after him is making a huge splash that would say "oops."
Doesn't mean they might not turn out better, but pick one forward on that list you'd take over Gauthier right now.

The only fwds I had over him on that list were Nazar, Ostlund, Savoie, and Lekkerimaki. Lekkerimaki is the only one I wouldn't take over him now. And since we're going off production Jiricek, Mintyukov, Snuggerud, and Hutson are definitely making a splash.

 

[deadhead]

I'm pretty sure he was referring to Snuggerud with him being a late first and all..

Late first or second is irrelevant, if no one thought he was that good at the draft, he wasn't a viable option.
It's like saying a team should have taken Tom Brady in the 4th round.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but there's a reason players drop. Sometimes they surprise, but most of the time they simply are forgotten.

 

[BigToe]

Late first or second is irrelevant, if no one thought he was that good at the draft, he wasn't a viable option.
It's like saying a team should have taken Tom Brady in the 4th round.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but there's a reason players drop. Sometimes they surprise, but most of the time they simply are forgotten.

Jiricek went right after Cutter. Mintyukov went 5 spots later.

 

[deadhead]

Assuming he stays healthy, my money is on Jiricek being a bigger impact, harder to find player than Gauthier.

That's the assumption that may have turned off the Flyers, he did have some issues with a knee, and given their recent luck with high picks and injuries (Patrick, Rubtsov), they may have been wary of betting on him.

I saw it as a two player decision. Jiricek fit just as well given their needs.

 

[Magua]

Late first or second is irrelevant, if no one thought he was that good at the draft, he wasn't a viable option.
It's like saying a team should have taken Tom Brady in the 4th round.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but there's a reason players drop. Sometimes they surprise, but most of the time they simply are forgotten.

Now, you're talking about hindsight, after posting about how no one looks better now -- when both aren't even accurate.

A late 1st is certainly not irrelevant in a trade down scenario. The guys here who watched that NTDP team were pretty unsure about the hierarchy after Cooley. You say this as if they didn't rank Gauthier, Snuggerud, McGroarty all pretty similarly -- not to mention having Hutson and Nazar above them all.
What Brent Flahr and Chuck Fletcher think has zero relevance in this discussion. No, comparing 1st rounders, while discussing someone we did not view as a top 5 pick, is really not like saying a team should've taken Tom Brady in the 4th round. Insert laugh emoji.

You don't even watch these players, pre-draft or post-draft, deady. Why are you lecturing us based on box scores -- and box scores that don't even prove your point? Toe already named some names: Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Nazar, Ostlund were all top half 1sts who could very well be better than Gauthier -- none of that is hindsight. Throw in Snuggerud, Kulich, Hutson, etc. and it puts serious holes in your argument that Gauthier was, is, and likely will be at worst the 5th best player in the class. Statistics alone will tell you the probability is always with the field.

 

[deadhead]

My point was that Gauthier was just as legitimate as anyone else taken.
And size is an attribute that has real value, a big fast center can do things smaller centers can't.
It's not enough, same way being quick and agile isn't enough.
Gauthier will not be an elite playmaker at center, but if he's a physical two way center who scores goals, that's just as good.
If he turns out to be a sharpshooting LW, we'll see if any of the players after him become 1C or first pair D-men.

As far as trading down, takes two to tango.
#7 for Debrincat, a 2nd and 3rd
#11 was traded for 27th, 34th and 45th
#13 and a 3rd for Dach
#19 and Fabar for Fiala

Basically, no trade down kept you close enough to nab someone you'd want.
The problem with trade downs is someone has to be in love with a player where you pick.
The trade downs weren't so much about trading up, but getting value for players teams wanted to move.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Why did you waste that thoughtful response on someone who won't give a f*** what it says.

 

[Curufinwe]

That's the assumption that may have turned off the Flyers, he did have some issues with a knee, and given their recent luck with high picks and injuries (Patrick, Rubtsov), they may have been wary of betting on him.

I saw it as a two player decision. Jiricek fit just as well given their needs.

Jiricek would have been a more likely pick if they had traded Risto a year ago like they should have done.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I am skeptical of any approach to evaluation of a draft pick that hinges on the idea that trades cannot be made or hand-waves them as impossible. We have no idea.

 

[deadhead]

I am skeptical of any approach to evaluation of a draft pick that hinges on the idea that trades cannot be made or hand-waves them as impossible. We have no idea.

Trades aren't easy, the assumption that you can move down and get someone just as good is tenuous.

Generally, trade downs occur when your draft board has a bunch of players with similar value, and you don't care which one you end up with - but even then - that tier is often limited in size (how far you'd be willing to move down). But it also requires another team value a player far higher than you do and is willing to move up.

As you move down the draft, trades are easier b/c players generally lump together (that is, the perceived value difference is much smaller).