Salary Cap: Pens Off Season Thread: Pre Free Agency Shenanigans!

[Empoleon8771]

So off the top of my head, it's quite common for lines involving big time netfront guys to have high xGF that doesn't convert because calling those net front scrambles high danger chances in the same way cross slot passes are high danger doesn't really carry through.

And by off of the top of my head I mean this fits my memories of pouring through stats of previous Penguins lines involving Hornqvist.

But Zucker-Malkin posted a 3.04 gf/60. That beat Sid and Jake. Yeah they probably left money on the table but I'm not overly inclined to point fingers at that outcome and suspect it was probably fair. I would worry more about them conceding so much.

That said, more goals would be nice, but I think it would depend on being around a stronger transition game to get them on the rush more.

I think it's both, the 2nd line should have produced more and they should have conceded less based on how they played.

I don't think a difference between a 3.04 GF/60 and a 3.65 xGF/60 can be just explained with Zucker being a net front guy. And beyond that, I also think Zucker scored a lot of goals from afar with his shot.

I honestly think it's mostly because Rust had such a bad season in terms of finishing, and just replacing Rust with Smith on last year's 2nd line would yield a substantially better producing 2nd line. Rust only shot 9.5% last year, which was way down from where he was at in the 3 previous years (17.9, 14.3 and 13.3). That difference doesn't seem that big, but that's a difference of 8 or 9 goals over a full season with how many shots Rust takes. If Rust would have shot 15.1% like he did in the 3 previous years, he would have had 32 goals instead of 20 goals.

Rakell also falls in that category as well. His production was masked by his PP production, but he was also underproducing a fair bit relative to expectations at 5v5. He only shot 9.41% at 5v5 and was about 5 goals below expected at 5v5. Rakell got a bunch of powerplay luck though, so it ended up evening out to him producing about what he should have produced. For comparison, Rust shot at 8.24% and was 6 goals below expected at 5v5.

 

[Gurglesons]

Bertuzzi going to UFA. I would honestly give him 7 mil x 5.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think we’ll get a better scorer when we change the coach, who only likes grinders and PKers, but that might not be for the next decade lol

I just think most NHL teams in general are boring and safe and preference towards blowing money on guys who "bring their lunch pails and put on the hard hat" etc. etc.

Not even sure how much is a Penguins thing.

Rakell also falls in that category as well. His production was masked by his PP production, but he was also underproducing a fair bit relative to expectations at 5v5. He only shot 9.41% at 5v5 and was about 5 goals below expected at 5v5. For comparison, Rust shot at 8.24% and was 6 goals below expected at 5v5.

Raks was kinda balls defensively especially the back half of the year too wasn't he?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I forget the exact number, but isn't like 30% of Granlund's production across his career from PP points? I think a FO would take note of that, and this team's current PP hierarchy, and realize that alone makes the guy an awful fit--ignoring the like, handful of other factors that solidify that he's a terrible fit.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Raks was kinda balls defensively especially the back half of the year too wasn't he?

Yes he was. Without his PP production, I think people would have had a dramatically different tune about him right now.

 

[Peat]

Smith in place of Zucker is fine but we need a better scorer than Rust and Rakell on L2 then…maybe we should be going after DeBrincat

You go ahead and keep on dreamin' that dream. They won't be getting another top gun until post retirement. Not saying you're wrong only that I've been saying that since, like... Kessel.

Smith truly is a nice pickup, though. I like him better than Zucker. And certainly Rust.

Is this a good time to point out that Zucker has a higher 5v5 shooting percentage over the last 3 years than DeBrincat?

And Smith, come to that.

And any forward currently projected to be on the Pens next year not called Jake Guentzel.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I forget the exact number, but isn't like 30% of Granlund's production across his career from PP points? I think a FO would take note of that, and this team's current PP hierarchy, and realize that alone makes the guy an awful fit--ignoring the like, handful of other factors that solidify that he's a terrible fit.

Granlund produces on the PP but he doesn't cause that production, if that makes sense. That's at least what I recall the analytics people saying.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yes he was. Without his PP production, I think people would have had a dramatically different tune about him right now.

Agreed. I like Raks but he got a little glad-handed by the fanbase last year IMO.

 

[Turin]

I’m bias cuz I’ve liked Bertuzzi a lot since 2019, it I would probably overpay him.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Granlund produces on the PP but he doesn't cause that production, if that makes sense. That's at least what I recall the analytics people saying.

Yeah, I'm a f***ing moron and even I get that. "Granlund had ~65 points just a year ago!" Well he played on a Nashville team with two 40+ goal scorers in Duchene and Forsberg, and a 100pt blueliner in Josi. So I'll just assume a lot of that production isn't gonna carry over to this team.

 

[PensandCaps]

The Penguins got hammered with injury issues outside of their top-6 and their depth players have historically stepped up when Crosby and Malkin got hurt in the past.

I'd rather deal with no Crosby or Malkin for 20-40 games next year than all of the other injuries they had.

Who was so good that missed alot of games in the bottom six last year? Lmao. Like it matters if Archibald got hurt.

 

[Gurglesons]

People dunking on Rakell now. Come on.

 

[Josey Wales]

I’m bias cuz I’ve liked Bertuzzi a lot since 2019, it I would probably overpay him.

David Pagnotta
@TheFourthPeriod
·
17m
Tyler Bertuzzi is going to test the UFA market.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Raks was kinda balls defensively especially the back half of the year too wasn't he?

Since Jan. 14th, the midway point.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Who was so good that missed alot of games in the bottom six last year? Lmao. Like it matters if Archibald got hurt.

Letang missed 18 games and was dogshit when he was healthy and Petry missed 21 games and wasn't much better when he was healthy.

It obviously doesn't matter if Archibald got hurt, but their entire defense was built around "Letang and Petry carry the defense". Both had injury issues that cost them about a quarter of the season and weren't good when they were healthy.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

View attachment 723859

View attachment 723860

Since Jan. 14th, the midway point.

Good man for bringing the receipts. Thank you.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I was really surprised by Bertuzzi's playmaking ability in his time with Boston. He seemed to fit perfectly alongside Pasta. Didn't expect that much finesse or vision from the guy. I'm not sure he's a fit here unless Sid or Geno start shooting a lot more, because outside of Jake who is also a LW, I don't think there's really a perfect spot for Bertuzzi to settle in to that makes his asking price palatable.

-edit- Also, we half-jokingly throw this kinda thing around a lot, but I'm pretty confident in saying a good number of the people around here would've done no worse a job than Hextall, or JR over his final few years. The mismanagement this team's seen recently has been unreal.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Geno 21 minor penalties in the back-half? Come on dude.

 

[pistolpete11]

You are trying to rational someone else and their preference for him and his family. There's maybe 10 teams that would have been suited for them they were willing to go to. Every year he gives a list of teams, and I'll bet all 8/9 Canadian teams are on it, plus teams much further away.

There's a huge difference traveling through the states and hopping across a border, or across the entire country, which is not just a one way trip. Imagine having to do it 3/4/5/6 times a year. That's just one time a month to go see him. Right now it's a 4 hour drive, no customs, no wait, no lines.

Teams are not always gonna find a perfect fit, but Petry isn't some mid 20's guy here, he's 36 with a large young family.

Dude...I simply said that if part of his issue with playing in Canada was traveling during COVID, that's over.

I'm sure he'd love to stay within a 4 hour drive of home, but there's not many teams that fit that bill and he only has a 15 team no trade list. His options would be Detroit, Chicago, Columbus, Toronto (but it's in Canada) and if you stretch it a bit, Buffalo. That's it. If the Pens trade him, he can't guarantee it's to one of those teams. When he's making his list, at some point he's going to have to decide whether distance or playing in Canada is preferable. You don't know any better than I do what that preference would be, especially now that the travel restrictions have changed since he was with Montreal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

But yeah, the overall point in this discussion is that I completely believe that last year was pretty much a worst case scenario for this team all around and I really struggle to see next year being worse. Even if Crosby and/or Malkin aren't as healthy as they were last year, they had so many issues beyond Crosby and Malkin that I can't imagine next year will be worse.

It would take an incredibly bad performance by Dubas in the 2023 off-season for them to be entering next year with as flawed of a team as they had last year. Considering what he has done already (aka acquiring Smith), I don't think that's very likely. Maybe not all of the issues get fixed, but I have a really tough time seeing them dealing with more issues than the goaltending, defense, special teams, bottom-6 and transition issues that they dealt with last year.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Is this a good time to point out that Zucker has a higher 5v5 shooting percentage over the last 3 years than DeBrincat?

And Smith, come to that.

And any forward currently projected to be on the Pens next year not called Jake Guentzel.

As long as it's also a good time to point out that after years of me bitching to go get a big fish they finally did and won B2B Cups.

 

[Epic Neal Time]

If we pay big $ in FA, it'll be for a defenseman or center (Graves/Orlov/Compher).

If we add a wing, it'll be in the Engvall/Fast/Tatar tier at the highest, IMO

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think a lot of what we're discussing depends on how the goalie situation plays out, as well.

We'll see. They just missed the playoffs after fully healthy and productive seasons from Sid and Geno. I'm not gonna be surprised if they sink like a stone should one or both of them, particularly Sid, get injured for a lengthy period. /shrug

Typically under Sully, teams have been galvanized by the absence of one of them. Not all the time but in a 10 game increment, the team gets structural and whatnot.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Typically under Sully, teams have been galvanized by the absence of one of them. Not all the time but in a 10 game increment, the team gets structural and whatnot.

Not that you're wrong but it would be nice of the coach to figure out how to use a healthy lineup.

Perhaps now that finally got that GM that he can be on the same page with? Get that lineup he REALLY wants? He's been powerless and without a voice up until now, after all. Poor lamb.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Typically under Sully, teams have been galvanized by the absence of one of them. Not all the time but in a 10 game increment, the team gets structural and whatnot.

Guys get a lot more motivated to play in elevated roles. ERod's a classic example. Went to crap after Geno returned.