Salary Cap: Pens Off Season Thread: Pre Free Agency Shenanigans!

[Ryder71]

He flat out never said this.

He said that those assets would only be on the table for a young player, which Hanifin is.



Hanifin fits literally exactly the kind of player Dubas said he would consider trading his young assets for.

I don't know that Dubas would consider Hanifin exactly (young). Relative to us he would be. But in that quote he made it very apparent that unless someone knocks his socks off it's not likely gonna happen. And I seriously doubt he'd give up both Pickering and a 1st in '24. If he does I'll gladly admit I'm wrong.

 

[PensandCaps]

If we pay big $ in FA, it'll be for a defenseman or center (Graves/Orlov/Compher).

If we add a wing, it'll be in the Engvall/Fast/Tatar tier at the highest, IMO

Well, Tatar is on another level than those guys. He's got crazy 5v5 possession stats. One of the most underrated 5v5 scorers in the NHL. I hope we target him.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Typically under Sully, teams have been galvanized by the absence of one of them. Not all the time but in a 10 game increment, the team gets structural and whatnot.

There definitely *feels* like a pattern of guys tightening up their games when one or more big guns go down, then sort of relaxing and adopting a "Sid's back, he'll carry" approach. But I don't think that's a Sullivan-specific thing. I remember it happening quite often under Bylsma too.

 

[Ryder71]

People dunking on Rakell now. Come on.

It's because they have no couth.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

There definitely *feels* like a pattern of guys tightening up their games when one or more big guns go down, then sort of relaxing and adopting a "Sid's back, he'll carry" approach. But I don't think that's a Sullivan-specific thing. I remember it happening quite often under Bylsma too.

Yeah I'm being an ass but this feels like a fairly common thing. Though unsustainable over a long period of time IMO.

 

[Peat]

I think it's both, the 2nd line should have produced more and they should have conceded less based on how they played.

I don't think a difference between a 3.04 GF/60 and a 3.65 xGF/60 can be just explained with Zucker being a net front guy. And beyond that, I also think Zucker scored a lot of goals from afar with his shot.

I honestly think it's mostly because Rust had such a bad season in terms of finishing, and just replacing Rust with Smith on last year's 2nd line would yield a substantially better producing 2nd line. Rust only shot 9.5% last year, which was way down from where he was at in the 3 previous years (17.9, 14.3 and 13.3). That difference doesn't seem that big, but that's a difference of 8 or 9 goals over a full season with how many shots Rust takes. If Rust would have shot 15.1% like he did in the 3 previous years, he would have had 32 goals instead of 20 goals.

Rakell also falls in that category as well. His production was masked by his PP production, but he was also underproducing a fair bit relative to expectations at 5v5. He only shot 9.41% at 5v5 and was about 5 goals below expected at 5v5. Rakell got a bunch of powerplay luck though, so it ended up evening out to him producing about what he should have produced. For comparison, Rust shot at 8.24% and was 6 goals below expected at 5v5.

When multiple talented goalscorers have bad seasons - Guentzel was also below expected - it makes sense to ask whether their chances were all that. One guy underperforming can be luck or form. Multiple guys underperforming - I'm fairly sure a bottom bottom six guys who usually shot well didn't too - points to underlying problems.

Such as absolutely shocking transition play which takes away the most dangerous chances in hockey, which is something that is observably poorly measured in xGF.

We also have the microstats pointing to the Penguins dmen really struggling with zone exits and that the Pens didn't generate many zone entry chances.

There are a ton of signs pointing to the Penguins personnel as a unit needing to be better at executing the system rather than individual execution at the final point.

I will refer back to this post for good talking points to tell myself when he is on the roster next year.

How about I just send you videos of really angry and inventive swearing?

As long as it's also a good time to point out that after years of me bitching to go get a big fish they finally did and won B2B Cups.

It's always a good time to point that out.

Phil Kessel was a 15 foot hammerhead shark.

Alex DeBrincat is the Phil Kessel tribute act you might book to play your nephew's wedding. Middle favourite nephew.

If we were talking Alex Nylander, who's a great zone entry guy with big playoff numbers, then you know I'm f'kin in there, let's talk. I think Toronto would rather trade us all their maple syrup than him, but that sort of big fish, that changes things. If Colorado offloaded an all situations transition king like Devon Toews.

DeBrincat... feh.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah I'm being an ass but this feels like a fairly common thing. Though unsustainable over a long period of time IMO.

A season injury for either would be bad.

A 15 game absence could be a nice exercise, as it has been so often historically. We could have used it last year honestly.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Here. Material to decide if he's an idiot like his father with.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

How about I just send you videos of really angry and inventive swearing?

I'm already pretty well versed in this particular art but sure... can't hurt.

It's always a good time to point that out.

Phil Kessel was a 15 foot hammerhead shark.

Alex DeBrincat is the Phil Kessel tribute act you might book to play your nephew's wedding. Middle favourite nephew.

If we were talking Alex Nylander, who's a great zone entry guy with big playoff numbers, then you know I'm f'kin in there, let's talk. I think Toronto would rather trade us all their maple syrup than him, but that sort of big fish, that changes things. If Colorado offloaded an all situations transition king like Devon Toews.

DeBrincat... feh.

I'm honestly not at all hung up on Cat. Just the general concept.

Nylander would rule. So would having my own private island.

A season injury for either would be bad.

A 15 game absence could be a nice exercise, as it has been so often historically. We could have used it last year honestly.

Merit to that.

Concern being when it happens in the year and the inevitable "YAY THE CAVALRY HAS ARRIVED" reaction and resulting slump from the whole team when one or both returned. To me that's where the coaching needs to step up. But I know you gotta be tired of me bitching about that by now.

 

[ChaosAgent]

It's always a good time to point that out.

Phil Kessel was a 15 foot hammerhead shark.

Alex DeBrincat is the Phil Kessel tribute act you might book to play your nephew's wedding. Middle favourite nephew.

If we were talking Alex Nylander, who's a great zone entry guy with big playoff numbers, then you know I'm f'kin in there, let's talk. I think Toronto would rather trade us all their maple syrup than him, but that sort of big fish, that changes things. If Colorado offloaded an all situations transition king like Devon Toews.

DeBrincat... feh.

Was he? He never led Toronto to anything. Underwhelming for a shark.

But the point is taken that DeBrincat is more in the mold of Guentzel than a play-driver/gamebreaker. If Taylor Hall still had his gamebreaking speed, we should have made a play. But he isn't that guy anymore.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Oh man... this reminds me a bit of when the team lost both Sid and Malkin going into the playoffs (the Kovalev year) but they still played really well down the stretch and everyone was like HUZZAH!

But then they actually got to the portion of the program where you need talent to win and everyone was like fuuuuuuuuuuuuu

 

[ChaosAgent]

Oh man... this reminds me a bit of when the team lost both Sid and Malkin going into the playoffs (the Kovalev year) but they still played really well down the stretch and everyone was like HUZZAH!

But then they actually got to the portion of the program where you need talent to win and everyone was like fuuuuuuuuuuuuu

Well the team relentlessly teased the fans that Sid was coming back.
And to be honest, they botched his treatment. He should have come back.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Well the team relentlessly teased the fans that Sid was coming back.
And to be honest, they botched his treatment. He should have come back.

Yeah what a cluster that was.

Obvious-Mumps-Crosby was still my favorite though.

 

[TimmyD]

Jake Sid Rakell
Bertuzzi Malkin Smith/Rust
XXX XXX Rust/Smith

That looks like a solid wing group

 

[Peat]

A season injury for either would be bad.

A 15 game absence could be a nice exercise, as it has been so often historically. We could have used it last year honestly.

*shrugs* The bounce never lasts.

There's got to be real questions about why this team is only willing to commit to the system that is its best hope when its missing a star. Do the team's leaders not see the need for it, or can't convince people? Is it too exhausting?

And by leaders I 100% mean Sid, Geno, and Tanger as well as Sully.

Realistically it needs to happen for a cup though. I'd say it's priority one, but I suspect getting a bunch of personnel who want to play a system like that because it suits their strengths is half the battle.

Was he? He never led Toronto to anything. Underwhelming for a shark.

But the point is taken that DeBrincat is more in the mold of Guentzel than a play-driver/gamebreaker. If Taylor Hall still had his gamebreaking speed, we should have made a play. But he isn't that guy anymore.

Not every shark-level talent is cut out to be the focal point of a team in terms of personality and willingness to play the hard minutes. Teams that are asking those guys to lead don't succeed. I guess to continue the fish analogy far further than it should go, those guys are the whales.

But Phil's talent level when engaged and insulated from being the guy, yeah. Shark.

And yeah... I think the world of Jake. I think his ability to make plays and win possession and be the guy is really high. Tbh, if DeBrincat does have that, I'd be more interested... but at the same time, I feel like you're rarely going to see Guentzel just take over a shift like Sid or Geno or Phil can, or transform the power play, or the rest of it.

Although honestly even just a second Guentzel level player with the right skills would be spectacular and do. DeBrincat... maybe I'm being unfair to the guy, but I don't think he's Guentzel level, or has the right skills.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah what a cluster that was.

Obvious-Mumps-Crosby was still my favorite though.

Yeah, the goal was "win a round and maybe Crosby will come back."
But the team seemed to have no plan and no timetable for actually returning him to action.

It's fun to bash Bylsma and Fleury but that concussion and mishandling wrecked 2 seasons for us.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah, the goal was "win a round and maybe Crosby will come back."
But the team seemed to have no plan and no timetable for actually returning him to action.

It's fun to bash Bylsma and Fleury but that concussion and mishandling wrecked 2 seasons for us.

I dislike Bylsma to this day and though I acknowledge Fleury had his failures here it's tough to not at least respect him.

But yeah I mean... losing your franchise pillar for too long due to incompetence and mishandling was definitely the root cause of some lost years, there. Malkin, Staal and others at least stepped up during his absence. But there is only so much you can do.

 

[ChaosAgent]

*shrugs* The bounce never lasts.

There's got to be real questions about why this team is only willing to commit to the system that is its best hope when its missing a star. Do the team's leaders not see the need for it, or can't convince people? Is it too exhausting?

And by leaders I 100% mean Sid, Geno, and Tanger as well as Sully.

Realistically it needs to happen for a cup though. I'd say it's priority one, but I suspect getting a bunch of personnel who want to play a system like that because it suits their strengths is half the battle.

The intensity from the rest of the team tends to drop when the big dogs come back. I hate it. And sometimes, if Letang comes back "bad" you'd be better off just...not having him out there.

The leadership has not been good for the last few years. And by that I mean the 3 actual core guys, the 3 guys who by tenure have become core, and the coach.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I dislike Bylsma to this day and though I acknowledge Fleury had his failures here it's tough to not at least respect him.

But yeah I mean... losing your franchise pillar for too long due to incompetence and mishandling was definitely the root cause of some lost years, there. Malkin, Staal and others at least stepped up during his absence. But there is only so much you can do.

2012 was the ultimate case of "how does Crosby come back good and the team is worse?"

I'm serious. The first few games after he came back, the Penguins were the death star. You had Malkin, Letang, Neal and Staal at their absolute peaks. You had Paul Martin, Niskanen, etc. Crosby wasn't 100% but he was still at like 1.7PPG.

Then after 2 weeks of "this team's gonna win the Cup" the thing started to capsize defensively.
2012 against Philly was just a humiliation. Didn't they go up 3-0 or 4-0 in Game 1 and blow it?

 

[Pancakes]

2012 was the ultimate case of "how does Crosby come back good and the team is worse?"

I'm serious. The first few games after he came back, the Penguins were the death star. You had Malkin, Letang, Neal and Staal at their absolute peaks. You had Paul Martin, Niskanen, etc. Crosby wasn't 100% but he was still at like 1.7PPG.

Then after 2 weeks of "this team's gonna win the Cup" the thing started to capsize defensively.
2012 against Philly was just a humiliation. Didn't they go up 3-0 or 4-0 in Game 1 and blow it?

Maf was horrific that series and the Pens mentally unraveled.

Wasn't that also the one though where we were winning game 1 or 2 and then Briere tied it up on a goal that was a mile offsides? Challenge might have changed that.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

*Carter

It's funny, but Carter would do far better replacing Geno for a stretch than trying to center a shut down line with ace defender Kap.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

2012 was the ultimate case of "how does Crosby come back good and the team is worse?"

I'm serious. The first few games after he came back, the Penguins were the death star. You had Malkin, Letang, Neal and Staal at their absolute peaks. You had Paul Martin, Niskanen, etc. Crosby wasn't 100% but he was still at like 1.7PPG.

Then after 2 weeks of "this team's gonna win the Cup" the thing started to capsize defensively.
2012 against Philly was just a humiliation. Didn't they go up 3-0 or 4-0 in Game 1 and blow it?

I honestly don't completely remember. I tend to naturally block out traumas.

I know they got spanked the first three games straight then somehow won the fourth game freakin' 10-3 lol

They really went off the damned rails. Shoulda been the end of the staff after that implosion... at least. They completely lost control of the team. Fleury was a cluster, too.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The whole situation around the back to backs, Kessel especially, just worked out so miraculously that it'd be raked over coals for its detachment from reality if it were made into a movie.

JR, an absolute buffoon, comes in and immediately makes a jarring trade shipping out Neal for Hornqvist. Then, over the course of like 18 months or whatever, he goes about slinging shit at the wall like he always does, but somehow, someway, nearly every move was an absolutely homerun. Kessel is sick and tired of Toronto, and they're sick and tired of him, so he falls into this team's lap as a neatly wrapped present--one with a colossal chip on his shoulder to make Toronto eat shit. A Sullivan I wouldn't even recognize today comes up and takes over from an absolute f***ing idiot in Johnston, who was in over his head so badly he had a team of still prime Sid/Geno/Kessel/Hornqvist/Letang playing prevent defense 60 minutes a night. Murray comes out of nowhere to become the best goalie prospect on Earth for a couple years. Fleury solves his playoff implosions just long enough. A bunch of nobody prospects from middle rounds come in and play exceedingly well, with Jake's first playoff run being one for the ages. Letang's out for the 3rd Cup of the era but Ron f***ing Hainsey of all players comes in and suddenly becomes a minute-munching workhorse two-way defenseman.

What an insane, "stars aligning" couple of runs, man.

-edit- Then Kessel proved his point and started coasting while being a headcase on the bench. Sully got a lobotomy. JR's Midas Touch wore off and everything he touched turned to shit. Just as quickly and wildly as it formed, it all collapsed.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Maf was horrific that series and the Pens mentally unraveled.

Wasn't that also the one though where we were winning game 1 or 2 and then Briere tied it up on a goal that was a mile offsides? Challenge might have changed that.

2011-12 Eastern Conference Quarter-Finals Game 1, Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Box Score: April 11, 2012 | Hockey-Reference.com

Get the latest box score updates on the Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins game played on April 11, 2012 on Hockey-Reference.com

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3-0 to a 4-3 loss

2011-12 Eastern Conference Quarter-Finals Game 2, Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Box Score: April 13, 2012 | Hockey-Reference.com

Get the latest box score updates on the Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins game played on April 13, 2012 on Hockey-Reference.com

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3-1 to an 8-5 loss (lol). Looks like Crosby scored instantly too? And Steve Sully was his linemate.

 

[PensandCaps]

*shrugs* The bounce never lasts.

There's got to be real questions about why this team is only willing to commit to the system that is its best hope when its missing a star. Do the team's leaders not see the need for it, or can't convince people? Is it too exhausting?

And by leaders I 100% mean Sid, Geno, and Tanger as well as Sully.

Realistically it needs to happen for a cup though. I'd say it's priority one, but I suspect getting a bunch of personnel who want to play a system like that because it suits their strengths is half the battle.



Not every shark-level talent is cut out to be the focal point of a team in terms of personality and willingness to play the hard minutes. Teams that are asking those guys to lead don't succeed. I guess to continue the fish analogy far further than it should go, those guys are the whales.

But Phil's talent level when engaged and insulated from being the guy, yeah. Shark.

And yeah... I think the world of Jake. I think his ability to make plays and win possession and be the guy is really high. Tbh, if DeBrincat does have that, I'd be more interested... but at the same time, I feel like you're rarely going to see Guentzel just take over a shift like Sid or Geno or Phil can, or transform the power play, or the rest of it.

Although honestly even just a second Guentzel level player with the right skills would be spectacular and do. DeBrincat... maybe I'm being unfair to the guy, but I don't think he's Guentzel level, or has the right skills.

I think Debrincat is better than Guentzel by a smidge. I mean this a 40 goal winger.

Guentzel too, but Debrincat is younger and more electric.