Salary Cap: Pens Off Season Thread: Pre Free Agency Shenanigans!

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Don't worry if Sid gets injured Sullivan will be sure to sub in Granlund on the top line for great results.

He can do it all! Granlund, the Playmaker™

 

[Ugene Magic]

I can sympathize with that, but now that travel to Canada is back to normal, I don't see why it's any more difficult than going to like 20 other teams in the league

I'm just pointing out that travel to Canada is different now than it was when he was in Montreal and wanted out.


Maybe, but when I pointed out that travel to Canada is different now, I was also told that he wants to stay close to family. Can't guarantee both when you only have a 15 NTC list.

You are trying to rational someone else and their preference for him and his family. There's maybe 10 teams that would have been suited for them they were willing to go to. Every year he gives a list of teams, and I'll bet all 8/9 Canadian teams are on it, plus teams much further away.

There's a huge difference traveling through the states and hopping across a border, or across the entire country, which is not just a one way trip. Imagine having to do it 3/4/5/6 times a year. That's just one time a month to go see him. Right now it's a 4 hour drive, no customs, no wait, no lines.

Teams are not always gonna find a perfect fit, but Petry isn't some mid 20's guy here, he's 36 with a large young family.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

There are many things that could realistically regress next year, outside of Malkin and Crosby:
Petts (career year), POJ (strong 3/4 year), Petry (old), 4th line defense, availability of all top 6 wings, 2LW and Rakell scoring, Granlund defensive work, PP2, backup availability...

Saying missing was just an unrepeatable anomaly is very optimistic with the current roster. Still a long time for Dubas to improve things though.

Even if Sid and Geno are that healthy again, they may not be that GOOD again. They're friggin old. A collapse can happen at any time now.

 

[Gurglesons]

Don't worry if Sid gets injured Sullivan will be sure to sub in Granlund on the top line for great results.

*Carter

 

[Empoleon8771]

There are many things that could realistically regress next year, outside of Malkin and Crosby:
Petts (career year), POJ (strong 3/4 year), Petry (old), 4th line defense, availability of all top 6 wings, 2LW and Rakell scoring, Granlund defensive work, PP2, backup availability...

Saying missing was just an unrepeatable anomaly is very optimistic with the current roster. Still a long time for Dubas to improve things though.

Even if Sid and Geno are that healthy again, they may not be that GOOD again. They're friggin old. A collapse can happen at any time now.

This ignores that a ton of things went wrong with the team.

They missed the playoffs last year because of bad goaltending, bad defense and a horrendous bottom-6. Those guys may regress, but Dubas would require some major f*** ups for those areas to not be better.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

He can do it all! Granlund, the Playmaker™

Doo doo doo doo doo doo... doo wahhhhhhhhhhh

Doesn't matter how dumb
Granlund on the top line
With passing crisp and full of life
Don't let it get to you
The coach is kind of a fool
When it comes to making up his lines

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I do expect Letang to be better overall. The shit he had to go through off the ice for the first half of the season had a staggering (and understandable) effect on his game. Though if anyone's primed to fall off a cliff play-wise due to age, I think it's Letang--who lives entirely on his athleticism and talent. Once those start to erode, if they haven't already begun to, there's no real cerebral approach to fall back on.

 

[Peat]

I think that team was a good bit different. That was after the expansion draft where they lost Tanev and McCann.

The lineup in the first half of that year was something like:

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Zucker-Carter-Kapanen
McGinn-Rodrigues-Heinen
ZAR-Blueger-Boyle

That was the year where Simon played in basically every game until he was traded to Anaheim due to how many injuries the Penguins had at forward.

Oh my b, I forgot Heinen existed.

So, right, yeah, four guys.

*sighs* That team could have done some good stuff without those injuries to Sid and Jarry. Well. Sid. Rakell getting injured in the playoffs was great (also kept it down to only 4 Hextall guys).

I would give a lot for one f***ing season where I don't feel the injuries were intelligently targeted by a malign and creative force.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I would give a lot for one f***ing season where I don't feel the injuries were intelligently targeted by a malign and creative force.

Is that another way to say "Jake Trouba's elbow?"

 

[Peat]

Don't worry if Sid gets injured Sullivan will be sure to sub in Granlund on the top line for great results.

I am bracing myself for all but the last three words to be true. I would be not at all surprised if Granlund was 3C opening day of the season.

There are many things that could realistically regress next year, outside of Malkin and Crosby:
Petts (career year), POJ (strong 3/4 year), Petry (old), 4th line defense, availability of all top 6 wings, 2LW and Rakell scoring, Granlund defensive work, PP2, backup availability...

Saying missing was just an unrepeatable anomaly is very optimistic with the current roster. Still a long time for Dubas to improve things though.

Even if Sid and Geno are that healthy again, they may not be that GOOD again. They're friggin old. A collapse can happen at any time now.

I think the simplest way of putting this is -

We had about the worst defensive results of any Sully team in the last five seasons
We shot a long way below expected

Regression to mean probably helps us unless Dubas blows putting this roster together

Is that another way to say "Jake Trouba's elbow?"

I do not care to use the word intelligent to describe Trouba.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Also as a potentially controversial opinion, but was the Penguins top-6 last year actually that good in terms of the scoreboard? I don't like using +/- or any sort of derivatives of it, but Malkin's line barely broke even at 5v5 last year. Zucker actually had a negative goal differential at 5v5, he was on the ice for 54 goals for and 56 goals against.

In total, here were their 5v5 +/- ratings:

-Crosby: +16
-Rakell: +7
-Guentzel: +10
-Malkin: +3
-Rust: +9
-Zucker: -2

Malkin's line had excellent play driving results last year, but the goal differential on the scoreboard didn't really reflect that. I think you can legitimately argue that better luck/finishing with L2 would have resulted in the Penguins making the playoffs last year. That's something I think you hope Smith can help with, I know Zucker had 27 goals last year but Malkin's line overall was not that productive at 5v5. Well rather, they weren't nearly as productive as their analytics suggested they should be.

That's not me blaming anyone in the top-6 whatsoever, but frankly I think there is room for improvement with the top-6 next year as well, especially with Malkin's line. Rust didn't have a good year at 5v5 last year and Malkin's line overall got very unlucky with their production.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I am bracing myself for all but the last three words to be true. I would be not at all surprised if Granlund was 3C opening day of the season.

That would be horrifying but perhaps increasingly likely. If dude has to be here I sure hope they at least put him on the wing and stick a good center next to him. Although like we discussed yesterday the idea of spending like 13ish million on the third line kinda makes my skin crawl.

I do not care to use the word intelligent to describe Trouba.

My man!

Also as a potentially controversial opinion, but was the Penguins top-6 last year actually that good in terms of the scoreboard? I don't like using +/- or any sort of derivatives of it, but Malkin's line barely broke even at 5v5 last year. Zucker actually had a negative goal differential at 5v5, he was on the ice for 54 goals for and 56 goals against.

In total, here were their 5v5 +/- ratings:

-Crosby: +16
-Rakell: +7
-Guentzel: +10
-Malkin: +3
-Rust: +9
-Zucker: -2

Malkin's line had excellent play driving results last year, but the goal differential on the scoreboard didn't really reflect that. I think you can legitimately argue that better luck/finishing with L2 would have resulted in the Penguins making the playoffs last year. That's something I think you hope Smith can help with, I know Zucker had 27 goals last year but Malkin's line overall was not that productive at 5v5. Well rather, they weren't nearly as productive as their analytics suggested they should be.

That's not me blaming anyone in the top-6 whatsoever, but frankly I think there is room for improvement with the top-6 next year as well, especially with Malkin's line. Rust didn't have a good year at 5v5 last year and Malkin's line overall got very unlucky with their production.

I wish I could like a post more than once.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think the top-6 was fine, and the fact that the rest of the roster was a dumpster fire kind of made the top-6 look even better by comparison. But yeah, they weren't out there killin' it or anything. Rust had, what, 45pts? Jake's production dropped to below PPG level. Rakell and Zucker were near around 50pts which isn't exactly wildly impressive. But again, everything else (bottom-6, goaltending, blueline) was varying degrees of dreadful so...

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the top-6 was fine, and the fact that the rest of the roster was a dumpster fire kind of made the top-6 look even better by comparison. But yeah, they weren't out there killin' it or anything. Rust had, what, 45pts? Jake's production dropped to below PPG level. Rakell and Zucker were near around 50pts which isn't exactly wildly impressive. But again, everything else (bottom-6, goaltending, blueline) was varying degrees of dreadful so...

Yeah I know Crosby and Malkin were healthy all year, but pretty much everything that could go wrong went wrong outside of that.

Jarry couldn't stay healthy and both DeSmith and Jarry had poor seasons for their standards. Letang and Petry both missed significant time, while Letang and Dumoulin had especially bad seasons and Petry was painfully mediocre. The transition game from the defense was dramatically hurt with injuries and poor play from Letang and Petry as well. The bottom-6 was a tire fire in pretty much every way, shape and form. The special teams were awful both on the PP and PK.

I think the only things that went well last year were Crosby's line being Crosby's line, a really nice bounce back season from Malkin and Zucker (that didn't show up on the scoreboard) and a really solid season from Pettersson. Beyond that, everything else was just varying levels dogshit. I think their transition game is the most undermentioned problem they had last year, it was horrendous compared to previous years and why I'm really hoping that Dubas can pull off Hanifin.

 

[Andy99]

Also as a potentially controversial opinion, but was the Penguins top-6 last year actually that good in terms of the scoreboard? I don't like using +/- or any sort of derivatives of it, but Malkin's line barely broke even at 5v5 last year. Zucker actually had a negative goal differential at 5v5, he was on the ice for 54 goals for and 56 goals against.

In total, here were their 5v5 +/- ratings:

-Crosby: +16
-Rakell: +7
-Guentzel: +10
-Malkin: +3
-Rust: +9
-Zucker: -2

Malkin's line had excellent play driving results last year, but the goal differential on the scoreboard didn't really reflect that. I think you can legitimately argue that better luck/finishing with L2 would have resulted in the Penguins making the playoffs last year. That's something I think you hope Smith can help with, I know Zucker had 27 goals last year but Malkin's line overall was not that productive at 5v5. Well rather, they weren't nearly as productive as their analytics suggested they should be.

That's not me blaming anyone in the top-6 whatsoever, but frankly I think there is room for improvement with the top-6 next year as well, especially with Malkin's line. Rust didn't have a good year at 5v5 last year and Malkin's line overall got very unlucky with their production.

This is why people keep saying we need a much better scorer in the top six…we need Pastrnak…our finishing has been bad for awhile…it’s not just luck…both Sid and Geno don’t have the goal scoring prowess they used to have and they need wingers who are good at putting the puck in the net, other than Jake

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Honestly I'm just glad I'm not the only one who saw L2 leave a good amount of points on the table and am not entirely comfortable on largely just running it back. You need a solid bottom six but your top six wins you games IMO.

 

[Peat]

Also as a potentially controversial opinion, but was the Penguins top-6 last year actually that good in terms of the scoreboard? I don't like using +/- or any sort of derivatives of it, but Malkin's line barely broke even at 5v5 last year. Zucker actually had a negative goal differential at 5v5, he was on the ice for 54 goals for and 56 goals against.

In total, here were their 5v5 +/- ratings:

-Crosby: +16
-Rakell: +7
-Guentzel: +10
-Malkin: +3
-Rust: +9
-Zucker: -2

Malkin's line had excellent play driving results last year, but the goal differential on the scoreboard didn't really reflect that. I think you can legitimately argue that better luck/finishing with L2 would have resulted in the Penguins making the playoffs last year. That's something I think you hope Smith can help with, I know Zucker had 27 goals last year but Malkin's line overall was not that productive at 5v5. Well rather, they weren't nearly as productive as their analytics suggested they should be.

That's not me blaming anyone in the top-6 whatsoever, but frankly I think there is room for improvement with the top-6 next year as well, especially with Malkin's line. Rust didn't have a good year at 5v5 last year and Malkin's line overall got very unlucky with their production.

So off the top of my head, it's quite common for lines involving big time netfront guys to have high xGF that doesn't convert because calling those net front scrambles high danger chances in the same way cross slot passes are high danger doesn't really carry through.

And by off of the top of my head I mean this fits my memories of pouring through stats of previous Penguins lines involving Hornqvist.

But Zucker-Malkin posted a 3.04 gf/60. That beat Sid and Jake. Yeah they probably left money on the table but I'm not overly inclined to point fingers at that outcome and suspect it was probably fair. I would worry more about them conceding so much.

That said, more goals would be nice, but I think it would depend on being around a stronger transition game to get them on the rush more.

 

[Andy99]

Honestly I'm just glad I'm not the only one who saw L2 leave a good amount of points on the table and am not entirely comfortable on largely just running it back. You need a solid bottom six but your top six wins you games IMO.

Smith in place of Zucker is fine but we need a better scorer than Rust and Rakell on L2 then…maybe we should be going after DeBrincat

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Smith in place of Zucker is fine but we need a better scorer than Rust and Rakell on L2 then…maybe we should be going after DeBrincat

You go ahead and keep on dreamin' that dream. They won't be getting another top gun until post retirement. Not saying you're wrong only that I've been saying that since, like... Kessel.

Smith truly is a nice pickup, though. I like him better than Zucker. And certainly Rust.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Also as a potentially controversial opinion, but was the Penguins top-6 last year actually that good in terms of the scoreboard? I don't like using +/- or any sort of derivatives of it, but Malkin's line barely broke even at 5v5 last year. Zucker actually had a negative goal differential at 5v5, he was on the ice for 54 goals for and 56 goals against.

In total, here were their 5v5 +/- ratings:

-Crosby: +16
-Rakell: +7
-Guentzel: +10
-Malkin: +3
-Rust: +9
-Zucker: -2

Malkin's line had excellent play driving results last year, but the goal differential on the scoreboard didn't really reflect that. I think you can legitimately argue that better luck/finishing with L2 would have resulted in the Penguins making the playoffs last year. That's something I think you hope Smith can help with, I know Zucker had 27 goals last year but Malkin's line overall was not that productive at 5v5. Well rather, they weren't nearly as productive as their analytics suggested they should be.

That's not me blaming anyone in the top-6 whatsoever, but frankly I think there is room for improvement with the top-6 next year as well, especially with Malkin's line.

Offensively:
Crosby, Malkin, Zucker, and Guentzel justified their minutes and O-zone usage from a production standpoint. All had pretty strong 5v5 P/P60's. Rust was the sole poor producer, and is very likely to improve. Rakell was borderline acceptable territory at a 1.75, but he got so many minutes to just provide that.
Guentzel's a pretty decent candidate to improve his output rate. He produced very well, but he's normally brilliant at even-strength.
Malkin and Crosby are both extremely likely to regress, with being 2.35 and 2.66, respectively.

Defensively:
The entire top 6 could and should be better, with strong emphasis on L2. Malkin has shown defensive competence before. Comes randomly.
Some guys had strong 1st halves or 2nd halves, but nobody was strong defensively throughout.
R. Smith should be an upgrade on Zucker this way, and him likely being our best PK'er next year would be helpful.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Honestly I'm just glad I'm not the only one who saw L2 leave a good amount of points on the table and am not entirely comfortable on largely just running it back. You need a solid bottom six but your top six wins you games IMO.

Need your top-6 to win games, and your depth to not lose 'em.

Smith in place of Zucker is fine but we need a better scorer than Rust and Rakell on L2 then…maybe we should be going after DeBrincat

Debrincat or Nylander would be awesome, and fun. But I dunno how you sort out the 3rd line and goalie situation if you land either of those two. I'd still do it because entertainment's the name of the game for me personally, but I doubt it makes sense for somebody whose job it is to manage the roster.

 

[Peat]

That would be horrifying but perhaps increasingly likely. If dude has to be here I sure hope they at least put him on the wing and stick a good center next to him. Although like we discussed yesterday the idea of spending like 13ish million on the third line kinda makes my skin crawl.

Eh... well, hear me out.

If Granlund is here and to be successful, then you need to

a) Mask his poor forechecking
b) Get the puck on his stick frequently to make use of his playmaking

Well... that says centre, right? Centre is the one getting the most puck, centre is the one playing deepest and less likely to be the lead forechecker.

He absolutely does not have the right physique for an NHL centre, but he'll try, and can at least pick the right lanes to jam and can take faceoffs. Maybe you give him some bigger wings who can insulate him a bit.

And if you're looking for finishers to take advantage of his playmaking, it's easier to find them as wingers.

If he's got to be here, it seems to make the most sense to me.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Eh... well, hear me out.

If Granlund is here and to be successful, then you need to

a) Mask his poor forechecking
b) Get the puck on his stick frequently to make use of his playmaking

Well... that says centre, right? Centre is the one getting the most puck, centre is the one playing deepest and less likely to be the lead forechecker.

He absolutely does not have the right physique for an NHL centre, but he'll try, and can at least pick the right lanes to jam and can take faceoffs. Maybe you give him some bigger wings who can insulate him a bit.

And if you're looking for finishers to take advantage of his playmaking, it's easier to find them as wingers.

If he's got to be here, it seems to make the most sense to me.

I will refer back to this post for good talking points to tell myself when he is on the roster next year.

 

[Turin]

Operation trade Petry and offer sheet Bouchard to **** Edmonton.

 

[Andy99]

You go ahead and keep on dreamin' that dream. They won't be getting another top gun until post retirement. Not saying you're wrong only that I've been saying that since, like... Kessel.

Smith truly is a nice pickup, though. I like him better than Zucker. And certainly Rust.

I think we’ll get a better scorer when we change the coach, who only likes grinders and PKers, but that might not be for the next decade lol