Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I don't know if it matters what the next GM thinks about Carter, does it? Carter said he's gonna play next season, and the full NMC means he'd have to be approached to waive in order to be dealt or demoted iirc.

It wasn't just a Hextall thing either, Sully routinely goes to bat for the guy--aggressively--even when Carter's in the middle of a months-long stretch as one of the worst forwards in the league.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I don't have it nicely broken down as top six vs bottom six, but we can at least get an idea by looking at individual goals for vs goal against while on the ice:

Player, GF, GA, Gdiff (on-ice, 5v5, sorted by on-ice GF)
Top Six:
Crosby, 67, 51, +16
Rakell, 61, 54, +7
Guentzel, 59, 49, +10
Zucker, 54, 56, -2
Malkin, 53, 50, +3
Rust, 51, 42, +9
Bottom Six:
Heinen, 25, 29, -4
Carter, 24, 41, -17
Archibald, 21, 16, +5
O'Connor, 15, 18, -3
Poehling, 15, 19, -4
Granlund, 9, 8, +1
Nylander, 5, 4, +1
Players traded out:
McGinn, 18, 27, -9
Kapanen, 16, 24, -8
Blueger, 11, 21, -10

Granted, this isn't much different than the standard +/-, but if the question is how many goals did the top six give up vs how many they scored? Top six was doing its job, pretty definitively.
The bottom six really wasn't. Especially one black hole in particular... (look, say what you will about +/-, but when it's _that_ stark of a difference compared to everyone else on the team, one has to at least take that as a sign one should look a bit closer as to why it's that way!)

The top six also were given all the conditions it needed to succeed, while the bottom six were used like slaves to support them. Them being healthy all year helped that trend along too.
If you want it more balanced then you re-allocate the O-zone starts, minutes and try top 6 wings on the 3rd line at times.
This is normally done organically by coaches when their bottom six stinks to this extent, but Sullivan straight up refused to make changes. Borderline insanity. The McGinn-Carter-Kap line was one of the worst in hockey, and he kept going with it time after time after time.

If you're getting 70% O-zone starts all year playing with strong players, you BETTER be well into the positives.

The fact that ZMRak got such privileged usage and still ended up a -4 is super disappointing. Cost us a playoff spot.

This line got it done for us, despite getting like 80% D-zone starts. Shame they didn't play together more. Injuries prevented that.
It's like the only thing that was working for Blue this season.

 

[Jacob]

The Bruins are paying Foligno more to do a lot less than Carter does. Either way it shouldn't hamper us that badly. Every team has a couple bad contracts.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I don't know if it matters what the next GM thinks about Carter, does it? Carter said he's gonna play next season, and the full NMC means he'd have to be approached to waive in order to be dealt or demoted iirc.

It wasn't just a Hextall thing either, Sully routinely goes to bat for the guy--aggressively--even when Carter's in the middle of a months-long stretch as one of the worst forwards in the league.

My understanding is he can't be dealt or demoted, but he can be bought out without his consent.
And yeah Sully for sure got invested in Carter as well. My point is that the new GM's relationship will be fresh with Sully. He may not bend over to his will like that.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It's not that Carter's making $3 million. It's that Carter is dressing and playing in games. They'd be better off just permanently scratching the guy if nothing can be worked out to move him. But because the coaching staff thinks very highly of him, the best case (with respect to reality) scenario is that he's used as a PP specialist and given very sheltered 4th line minutes. He's still got a heck of a shot, but he can't put himself in position to use it anymore and he's abysmal away from the puck.

My understanding is he can't be dealt or demoted, but he can be bought out without his consent.
And yeah Sully for sure got invested in Carter as well. My point is that the new GM's relationship will be fresh with Sully. He may not bend over to his will like that.

Well Sullivan is gonna be one of the guys making the decision who to hire as GM so we'll see. Doubt he's gonna vouch for a guy who might big league him, even if that'd be best for the team.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

It's not that Carter's making $3 million. It's that Carter is dressing and playing in games. They'd be better off just permanently scratching the guy if nothing can be worked out to move him. But because the coaching staff thinks very highly of him, the best case (with respect to reality) scenario is that he's used as a PP specialist and given very sheltered 4th line minutes. He's still got a heck of a shot, but he can't put himself in position to use it anymore and he's abysmal away from the puck.

Buying him out is the same thing as scratching him, except without him taking that reserve Forward spot during injuries.
You don't gain any cap, but he's taken away from the coach as an option. The GM needs to decide if it's worth doing that.
IMO yes. His skating's only gonna get worse. If you give him 70%+ D-zone starts again then his motivation will be garbage again.

I actually don't think his top speed is that bad. It's better than Crosby's. The problem is how rarely he wants to use it now. He's checked out.
Maybe if he started the season with a few Wilkes guys or something and they got some goals early on that would change his effort level a bit. His effort level improved after the deadline. He got a few goals and started playing cleaner hockey, with better defense.

I just think he's a player that played offense for a massive chunk of his career and then lost his enjoyment of the sport when asked to be a shutdown guy.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Well Sullivan is gonna be one of the guys making the decision who to hire as GM so we'll see. Doubt he's gonna vouch for a guy who might big league him, even if that'd be best for the team.

That's been disproven by Haase. Just a misunderstanding that made Twitter blow up. She said he's not choosing his own boss and people are fools to believe it.
Sullivan clarified what his role's gonna be during the transition, and it has nothing to do with the GM search.

FSG even clarified that the new GM will have the power to remove the coaching staff this summer too. They didn't confirm that Sullivan will start the next season here.
I truly believe that they're gonna give the new GM the power to put his stamp on things.

My concern is that Sullivan is good with his superiors behind the scenes and will ingratiate himself with his new boss, just like he did with Hextall.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I'd love to think so. And I think blaming the core is asinine but nah... they've already made their bed IMO. If they had started making changes years ago I think in an alternate universe it could have culminated with something interesting this season considering Sid/Malkin's health and still-great play. But as it stands that's fantasyland stuff. They're cooked... and thanks to mismanagement, incompetency behind the bench and flat out arrogance they got chucked in the broiler probably two-ish years too early. Mountain too steep now, I think.

Obviously it takes a lot if things breaking right to win a Cup. But I think this core has another long run in them if they make some smart moves and don't hoard 1sts like Hextall did. Look at LA.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

My thoughts on the roster and what to do this summer:

Forwards

Top 6 (mostly fine)

• Rust had an off year but I think he'll bounce back. Not like you could trade him for much with that full NMC.​

• Zucker I would re-sign. Do it for 5 years to get the cap hit down. Using some player comparisons, $3.125 per year is actually pretty fair. Though I guess the max I'd give him is $3.5 per. And yes, I expect him to trail off towards the end of the contract but think he'll be a decent Middle 6 player. And by the time he's a Bottom 6 player his cap hit won't be too big a percentage/Pens should be tanking.​

• Looking at the UFA market there's certainly some wingers that I'd like to add. I keep coming back to Barbashev and Compher. They give the Top 6 some versatility. And could cement a 3rd line.​

• There's a few teams that will be up against the cap. Using LA as an example: Target some of their players like Arvidsson (or Iafallo who I think could fit with Sid & Jake).​

Bottom 6 (needs a decent amount of work)

• If Barbashev/Compher (or similar) sign then one of those two or Rust should be bumped to the 3rd line. Same with the Arvidsson/Iafallo thought.​

• Carter ain't going anywhere. Just use him smarter*...​

• Poehling and DOC are showing potential and need to stay (not sure why they wouldn't?). Both are bigger and can skate. Not sure if they're third liners yet.​

• While there's slim pickings on younger players the Pens could use on the 3rd line (Nylander, Puustinen?) I think some RFAs may go un-signed.​

• Granlund needs to go, in case that wasn't clear. Maybe buy him out. Maybe retain.​

Defense (almost complete already)

• I wouldn't re-sign Dumoulin. Unless he comes at super cheap. Even then, I think it's time for a change.​

• Target Gavrikov or Soucy in FA. There were some other names I have interest in but am blanking.​

• Let POJ/Smith duke it out for playing time. Unless some team wants to overpay for one of them, which I don't see happening.​

Goalies

• Just go get a new tandem. I'm over both Jarry & CDS.​

• Trade CDS for a mid-round pick.​

• I'd love to sign Ales Stezka but rumor has it he'll be heading to Seattle.​

*get a new coach.


Guentzel - Crosby - Arvidsson
Barbashev - Malkin - Rakell
Zucker - Compher - Rust
DOC - Poehling - Carter
Nylander/RFA

Pettersson - Letang
Gavrikov/Soucy - Petry
POJ/Smith - Rutta

new - new

 

[Jacob]

DOC - Poehling - Carter seems like a good base for a 4th line. Couple young legs with an old guy. Good size across the board. Defensively aware. Not intimidating but not soft. Assuming DOC and Poehling re-sign for around a million each that's still pretty cheap for a 4th line even including Carter and an extra forward. I think you can write that in with pen, and Hallander as the 13th forward, and build from that.

 

[PensandCaps]

It's not that Carter's making $3 million. It's that Carter is dressing and playing in games. They'd be better off just permanently scratching the guy if nothing can be worked out to move him. But because the coaching staff thinks very highly of him, the best case (with respect to reality) scenario is that he's used as a PP specialist and given very sheltered 4th line minutes. He's still got a heck of a shot, but he can't put himself in position to use it anymore and he's abysmal away from the puck.


Well Sullivan is gonna be one of the guys making the decision who to hire as GM so we'll see. Doubt he's gonna vouch for a guy who might big league him, even if that'd be best for the team.

Carter was fine after he got 4th line minutes.

 

[PensandCaps]

My thoughts on the roster and what to do this summer:

Forwards

Top 6 (mostly fine)

• Rust had an off year but I think he'll bounce back. Not like you could trade him for much with that full NMC.​

• Zucker I would re-sign. Do it for 5 years to get the cap hit down. Using some player comparisons, $3.125 per year is actually pretty fair. Though I guess the max I'd give him is $3.5 per. And yes, I expect him to trail off towards the end of the contract but think he'll be a decent Middle 6 player. And by the time he's a Bottom 6 player his cap hit won't be too big a percentage/Pens should be tanking.​

• Looking at the UFA market there's certainly some wingers that I'd like to add. I keep coming back to Barbashev and Compher. They give the Top 6 some versatility. And could cement a 3rd line.​

• There's a few teams that will be up against the cap. Using LA as an example: Target some of their players like Arvidsson (or Iafallo who I think could fit with Sid & Jake).​

Bottom 6 (needs a decent amount of work)

• If Barbashev/Compher (or similar) sign then one of those two or Rust should be bumped to the 3rd line. Same with the Arvidsson/Iafallo thought.​

• Carter ain't going anywhere. Just use him smarter*...​

• Poehling and DOC are showing potential and need to stay (not sure why they wouldn't?). Both are bigger and can skate. Not sure if they're third liners yet.​

• While there's slim pickings on younger players the Pens could use on the 3rd line (Nylander, Puustinen?) I think some RFAs may go un-signed.​

• Granlund needs to go, in case that wasn't clear. Maybe buy him out. Maybe retain.​

Defense (almost complete already)

• I wouldn't re-sign Dumoulin. Unless he comes at super cheap. Even then, I think it's time for a change.​

• Target Gavrikov or Soucy in FA. There were some other names I have interest in but am blanking.​

• Let POJ/Smith duke it out for playing time. Unless some team wants to overpay for one of them, which I don't see happening.​

Goalies

• Just go get a new tandem. I'm over both Jarry & CDS.​

• Trade CDS for a mid-round pick.​

• I'd love to sign Ales Stezka but rumor has it he'll be heading to Seattle.​

*get a new coach.


Guentzel - Crosby - Arvidsson
Barbashev - Malkin - Rakell
Zucker - Compher - Rust
DOC - Poehling - Carter
Nylander/RFA

Pettersson - Letang
Gavrikov/Soucy - Petry
POJ/Smith - Rutta

new - new

Iaffalo was good with Kopitar, who plays a similar game to Crosby. I'd target Arvidsson but Iaffalo would fit as a third wheel with Crosby pretty well.

 

[Coastal Kev]

The Bruins are paying Foligno more to do a lot less than Carter does. Either way it shouldn't hamper us that badly. Every team has a couple bad contracts.

But Carter's contract combined with a coach cost us at least two valuable assets and was the lynchpin for destroying the bottom 6 and teams season.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Carter was fine after he got 4th line minutes.

I would love him to get 4th line minutes in Wilkes Barre. Sadly, that's not going to happen.

 

[Jacob]

But Carter's contract combined with a coach cost us at least two valuable assets and was the lynchpin for destroying the bottom 6 and teams season.

I'm just saying it can be done. You don't need 21 bargain contracts to make the playoffs.

 

[Malkinstheman]

If we had a sane coach that wasn't giving Carter 70% defensive zone stats, I bet Carter looks okay. Play him 10 mins, and in a more offensive role and he'd be fine.

 

[Josey Wales]

If we had a sane coach that wasn't giving Carter 70% defensive zone stats, I bet Carter looks okay. Play him 10 mins, and in a more offensive role and he'd be fine.

Who & where is he going to play to get offensive zone starts

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Who & where is he going to play to get offensive zone starts

You reduce the O-zone starts of L1 or L2 on nights where one or both are flat, and give them to L3 or L4 as a reward for strong play, depending on who's going.

Coaches around the league do this all the time. It's very normal. Sullivan just uses the same allocation no matter how the game is going.

You should also just straight up reduce minutes of a lifeless top six line. There's no such accountability in Pittsburgh. Even when your L1 was a -4 on the night, they'll have ended up with 65-70% O-zone starts and will lead in even-strength minutes.
That's how 2022-23 went consistently.
I know because I followed the game logs.

Sullivan did not coach well this year. People can say what they want about him not getting the players and that's valid, but the fact is he used them like a fool.
He stunted mini-hot streaks for bottom 6 players when they had them, and destroyed their traction. He rewarded failure in the top six and sent the message that shit play is fine if you're one of the privileged 6.

 

[Josey Wales]

You reduce the O-zone starts of L1 or L2 on nights where one or both are flat, and give them to L3 or L4 as a reward for strong play, depending on who's going.

Coaches around the league do this all the time. It's very normal. Sullivan just uses the same allocation no matter how the game is going.

You should also just straight up reduce minutes of a lifeless top six line. There's no such accountability in Pittsburgh. Even when your L1 was a -4 on the night, they'll have ended up with 65-70% O-zone starts and will lead in even-strength minutes.
That's how 2022-23 went consistently.
I know because I followed the game logs.

Sullivan did not coach well this year. People can say what they want about him not getting the players and that's valid, but the fact is he used them like a fool.
He stunted mini-hot streaks for bottom 6 players when they had them, and destroyed their traction. He rewarded failure in the top six and sent the message that shit play is fine if you're one of the privileged 6.

So put a Guy out there that 95% of people here can't stand out there for OZ faceoffs in place of line 1 or 2, Yeah that would go over well

 

[AuroraBorealis]

So put a Guy out there that 95% of people here can't stand out there for OZ faceoffs in place of line 1 or 2, Yeah that would go over well

He'd get more points, get scored on less and be less hated as a result.
He'd probably try harder defensively too when he has a reason to feel good about his game and role. That's usually how it goes.

I thought he did a really nice job on PP2 this year. He's not completely hopeless in the O-zone when motivated.

The problem with D-zone starts is just getting a controlled O-zone entry later in his shift eats a large chunk of it, if they ever even get there at all.
If he starts there then that saves a lot of time. With his really good faceoff work they'll get possession and chip in here and there offensively imo. The man can still be a good net front and can shoot the puck.

I think it would do L1 and L2 good over the long haul to learn to play more responsibly away from the puck, due to less privileged usage throughout the year. Treating them like royalty leads to sloppiness in the O-zone, cuz they're not scared to make stupid mistakes far away from our net.
A mentality change is in order.

 

[Pancakes]

If we had a sane coach that wasn't giving Carter 70% defensive zone stats, I bet Carter looks okay. Play him 10 mins, and in a more offensive role and he'd be fine.

I agree that his role is stupid but I also think he's pretty cooked. I don't think he's going to look good no matter what they do.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Carter belongs mostly on the bench at this point regardless. If he MUST be on the team then he needs to sit a ton. He isn't some 20something going through a rough patch. He's ancient and wasn't ever exactly a franchise guy even back in his day. There just isn't much to tap from that well anymore.

 

[Josey Wales]

He'd get more points, get scored on less and be less hated as a result.
He'd probably try harder defensively too when he has a reason to feel good about his game and role. That's usually how it goes.

I thought he did a really nice job on PP2 this year. He's not completely hopeless in the O-zone when motivated.

The problem with D-zone starts is just getting a controlled O-zone entry later in his shift eats a large chunk of it, if they ever even get there at all.
If he starts there then that saves a lot of time. With his really good faceoff work they'll get possession and chip in here and there offensively imo. The man can still be a good net front and can shoot the puck.

I think it would do L1 and L2 good over the long haul to learn to play more responsibly away from the puck, due to less privileged usage throughout the year. Treating them like royalty leads to sloppiness in the O-zone, cuz they're not scared to make stupid mistakes far away from our net.
A mentality change is in order.

Last part I agree 1000% but Sid & Buddies pretty much rule the roost, if he wanted Sullivan gone he would have been fired with the rest

 

[Randy Butternubs]

With all this talk about zone starts, I just wanted to point out that most starts happen mid-shift.

Guentzel - Crosby - Arvidsson
Barbashev - Malkin - Rakell
Zucker - Compher - Rust
DOC - Poehling - Carter
Nylander/RFA

Pettersson - Letang
Gavrikov/Soucy - Petry
POJ/Smith - Rutta

new - new

I made this lineup in CapFriendly and it only left $3.35M left for two goalies.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Last part I agree 1000% but Sid & Buddies pretty much rule the roost, if he wanted Sullivan gone he would have been fired with the rest

FSG are giving full authority to the new GM to have who he wants on the coaching staff. They said that straight up.
So if Sullivan sticks around it's on him.
I don't think we should rule him out being fired 2 months into the season if we're trash either.

People exaggerate Sid's influence. He stays out of it and worries about playing. Every interview of his I've ever seen supports that.
People said Sid demands Rust on his line, and Rakell ended up playing more with Sid than Rust did.