Speculation: Penguins off day talk thread: Yes, Sully is still the coach

[HandshakeLine]

My dude... this game, now.

I mean DAMN.

yeah, but they f***in' zero'd my previous nethack/sniper build.

Crosby isn't pking because he's old af and Sully probably wants to manage his minutes.

Agree that other teams give young guys a better chance. It's a strange thing because when Sully first got called up that was one of his strengths. But maybe it was never a strength of his and the only reason that Rust etc got shots early on in Sully's career is because he knew them from coaching them in the AHL. As soon as he stopped being familiar with our young guys, that was the end of them getting a chance.

I mean, the era of Sullivan trusting young guys is way more brief than the era of Sullivan being super inflexible.

I suspect that it probably was more about the ACs than anything else.

 

[Gurglesons]

I mean, the era of Sullivan trusting young guys is way more brief than the era of Sullivan being super inflexible.

I suspect that it probably was more about the ACs than anything else.

Who did Sullivan realistically trust?

He was forced to play those players due to injury.

Sheary was brought up for a spell when he first was made coach then waived for Kuhnhackl and Rust while Kevin Porter was playing 12+ a night.

 

[HandshakeLine]

With a track record of player development such as this... the future is undoubtedly in great hands!

well, it's in a hand. doing some sort of jerking motion.

Who did Sullivan realistically trust?

He was forced to play those players due to injury.

I mean, yeah. The whole youth movement thing was basically a few games in the playoffs and then it was enshrined that Rust is the face of Penguins hockey, regardless of whatever ups and downs we have for the next 7.75 years.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Who did Sullivan realistically trust?

He was forced to play those players due to injury.

Sheary was brought up for a spell when he first was made coach then waived for Kuhnhackl and Rust while Kevin Porter was playing 12+ a night.

It was also only due to injury that HBK was born

 

[pistolpete11]

2021: Scored - 20. Expected - 23
2020: Scored - 12. Expected - 12
2019: Scored - 4. Expected - 7
2018: Scored - 4. Expected - 8 (lmao)
2017: Scored - 28. Expected - 21 (this was where Jake and Sid were finishing every damned thing)
2016: Scored - 50. Expected - 43
2015: Scored - 50. Expected - 52 (most dominant Pens team in Sully era)

Finishing actually showed as less of an issue in the numbers than I thought it would. But again these are 5v5 numbers and I'm sure the PP was a hot mess from 2018-now in the playoffs.

The only part of this that is surprising to me is that the 2015 team wasn't expected to score even more goals.

As for "we're getting a lot of shots. The goals will come" well...xgoals can have wonky results due to how random finishing can be in hockey. Over time you'd expect the numbers to even out somewhat to where a team that controls play will get their share of goals, but as we all know it doesn't always work out that way on a game to game or even year to year basis. Teams get lucky for entire seasons. And teams get unlucky for the same.

If things don't even out over an entire season, then I've got to question the legitimacy of the stat to begin with...

...which I do. As @Andy99 posted, these stats don't take into consideration a lot of factors that are directly tied to how a team plays. I think it's also possible, if not most likely, that there are at least some coaches that build their system around these stats thinking that they will even out over the course of a year and they don't stop to consider how their system is effecting whether they will or not. I think it's fair to question if Sully is one of those coaches now.

I am fully on board with replacing Sully fwiw, so please don't take this as me defending him this year.

I assume everybody is board with replacing Sully now unless they explicitly state otherwise

 

[Pancakes]

Plenty of other old players PK.

Jeff Carter is older and PK'd..

Jeff Carter isn't playing near the even strength minutes that Sid is, nor the heavy amount of pp mins either.

Also do you really want one of our top six forwards getting hurt blocking shots on the pk? I barely even like Rust doing it just because if any of those guys get hurt it f***s our already anemic offense even further lol

 

[Gurglesons]

Jeff Carter isn't playing near the even strength minutes that Sid is, nor the heavy amount of pp mins either.

Also do you really want one of our top six forwards getting hurt blocking shots on the pk? I barely even like Rust doing it just because if any of those guys get hurt it f***s our already anemic offense even further lol

I honestly just want us to stop basing our entire bottom six on PKing and defensive prowess because it ain’t helping anything.

If that involves Sid playing 30-50 seconds a night on the PK that’s fine. Letang does it?

 

[WickedWrister]

Realistically, Sully is here at least the rest of the season if not until his contract expires in 26-27. We'd have to play at a disastrous level, I'm talking like 5-15 or 6-20 or something like that. Dubas and ownership clearly like him and probably view his dismissal as the nuclear option (short of trading Crosby and blowing it all up).

 

[HandshakeLine]

I mean, the whole cup-winning identity was "everyone pitch in and does everything, scoring, backchecking, finishing checks, every line plays the same" and now it's "top 6 do your thing whatever that is, bottom 6 pk". If that isn't a great analogy for our current woes, I don't know what is.

 

[Gurglesons]

Realistically, Sully is here at least the rest of the season if not until his contract expires in 26-27. We'd have to play at a disastrous level, I'm talking like 5-15 or 6-20 or something like that. Dubas and ownership clearly like him and probably view his dismissal as the nuclear option (short of trading Crosby and blowing it all up).

Doubt it. If this team is in danger of missing the playoffs in November FSG ain’t sitting around and after the EK65 deal we don’t have the assets of cap space for a big trade.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Realistically, Sully is here at least the rest of the season if not until his contract expires in 26-27. We'd have to play at a disastrous level, I'm talking like 5-15 or 6-20 or something like that. Dubas and ownership clearly like him and probably view his dismissal as the nuclear option (short of trading Crosby and blowing it all up).

I mean, making even the first round of the playoffs alone makes enough revenue to cover one year of Sully's contract, if not more?

 

[eXile3]

No regular starter on Vegas has over a 55.5 ozone start. They get scoring through out the lineup. Sully just lives in a vacuum.

 

[WickedWrister]

Some interesting numbers for the Penguins in some of the puck and player tracking data that was recently published.

My favorite: "Forwards this season have had an average of six bursts of speed that were over 20 miles per hour, and Carter has had eight, in the 75th percentile"

Team:

Pittsburgh Steelers, Penguins, Pirates News, Live Coverage | DK Pittsburgh Sports

Pittsburgh Steelers, Penguins, Pirates News, Live Coverage | DK Pittsburgh Sports

www.dkpittsburghsports.com

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Home

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics, including skating speed, skating distance, shot speed, shot and save location, and zone time for National Hockey League players and teams.

edge.nhl.com

 

[eXile3]

Some interesting numbers for the Penguins in some of the puck and player tracking data that was recently published.

My favorite: "Forwards this season have had an average of six bursts of speed that were over 20 miles per hour, and Carter has had eight, in the 75th percentile"

Pittsburgh Steelers, Penguins, Pirates News, Live Coverage | DK Pittsburgh Sports

Pittsburgh Steelers, Penguins, Pirates News, Live Coverage | DK Pittsburgh Sports

www.dkpittsburghsports.com

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Home

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics, including skating speed, skating distance, shot speed, shot and save location, and zone time for National Hockey League players and teams.

edge.nhl.com

Give the NHL credit, this is pretty cool.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

No regular starter on Vegas has over a 55.5 ozone start. They get scoring through out the lineup. Sully just lives in an alternate reality

FIFY

 

[WickedWrister]

Give the NHL credit, this is pretty cool.

Yeah it is. It's not a perfect representation, but you can now track how much "movement" there is on the powerplay. Really small sample size but its the category we're probably farthest away from the mean.

As opposed to Even Strength:

 

[Pancakes]

I honestly just want us to stop basing our entire bottom six on PKing and defensive prowess because it ain’t helping anything.

If that involves Sid playing 30-50 seconds a night on the PK that’s fine. Letang does it?

That's fair.

I dunno if I want Sid to have any part of the pk. I mean it would probably be fine, but he already looked worn out to end the year last year and he's only getting older. I feel like Sid had a lot of blah games near the end of last season and it was a big factor in us missing. And it wasn't his fault, but he just looked gassed out by the end of it.

Dubas needs to just inject some offensive talent into the bottom six any way that he can. Right now Jeff frickin Carter looks like our most offensively gifted option in the bottom six and that is scary because his hands and legs are largely shot. But he at least looks occasionally like a threat to score. The rest of our guys rarely even get a chance on net, let alone a good look.

 

[The Old Master]

At this point isn't Yager being as far away from Sully as possible a good thing?

By the time he makes the team maybe there will be a new coach in place who won't ruin his development.

until the kid puts on 10-15 lbs he would just get killed playing in the nhl. give him some time.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Crosby isn't pking because he's old af and Sully probably wants to manage his minutes.

Agree that other teams give young guys a better chance. It's a strange thing because when Sully first got called up that was one of his strengths. But maybe it was never a strength of his and the only reason that Rust etc got shots early on in Sully's career is because he knew them from coaching them in the AHL. As soon as he stopped being familiar with our young guys, that was the end of them getting a chance.

Mate you assuming Sullivan f***ing knows who can or should pk.

Because he really f***ing doesn't.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

My point is more so that teams like Boston, Buffalo, and others give their players an honest chance to succeed.

Our coach says "can they PK"

Why isn't Crosby Pking?

Our coach doesn't even say that though. He looks at them and goes "can you play a boring 2way game with players devoid of offensive skill, play with no creativity, don't be too aggressive, and do it all in 7-10mins of ice time while I judge your harshly on every move good or bad - on the 4th line, maybe when you're 25."

 

[Pancakes]

Mate you assuming Sullivan f***ing knows who can or should pk.

Because he really f***ing doesn't.

I think Sullivan puts a lot of thought into every decision he makes.

The problem is despite putting his thinking cap on he keeps making the wrong decisions

When he first came up every decision he made was gold. Now...the opposite. Almost always the wrong thing.

Needs to do the George Costanza do the opposite mode

 

[HandshakeLine]

What is worse? Half-assing an important decision and failing, or spending a lot of time and effort to just get the same result as half-assing it?

 

[3ladesof5teel]

I don't understand why they claimed Ludvig if they're never going to play him and never going to waive Shea to open up another roster spot.

It's becoming harder and harder to care about this team because of how middling it is.

I don't think they are just going to bring him on and call him up right away. Let him get acclimated to the system, see how he fits then call him up. You basically got one shot with him so get him up to speed because he may not pass waivers on the way down.

Makes the most sense

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I think Sullivan puts a lot of thought into every decision he makes.

The problem is despite putting his thinking cap on he keeps making the wrong decisions

When he first came up every decision he made was gold. Now...the opposite. Almost always the wrong thing.

Needs to do the George Costanza do the opposite mode

Analytics department - "If you make these changes, you could get the result you're after."
Video team, assistants, others - *repeating the same thing back*

Mike Sullivan - "I'm gonna do this instead" - this being the wrong thing, then blames it on the players and not the right ones, by benching and minute management.

I don't understand why they claimed Ludvig if they're never going to play him and never going to waive Shea to open up another roster spot.

It's becoming harder and harder to care about this team because of how middling it is.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

Which is why you try prospects that may fill a top nine role over Nieto and even DOC. DOC has been meh through 5 games. Call up Puusy give him 5 games. Waive Nieto.

I certainly wouldn't waive Nieto 5 games into the season. Pretty silly if you ask me, even if you are trying to make a point.

He's been serviceable throughout his career on much worse teams.

I'm really not sure what people expected with this bottom 6. The top 6 with EK is going to have to carry this team and it's a big task. Some nights they are going to look great. Others your gonna have people saying that they hate the team and are never going to watch them again