Speculation: Penguins off day talk thread: Yes, Sully is still the coach

[pistolpete11]

Was kinda interested to look up how we're doing analytically as a team and see that we're actually 4th in the league in 5v5 xgoals at the moment.

A reason for optimism perhaps?

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Yeah, I think there's more than enough data to start questioning why the analytics always love the Pens, but they aren't winning more games.

Performance matters, but we need to let players play through things..

OH NO! A lot of line combinations! What are we gonna do?!?

 

[Pancakes]

Yeah, I think there's more than enough data to start questioning why the analytics always love the Pens, but they aren't winning more games.

Not necessarily. The analytics have loved the Pens for years, but it was only last year that the finishing fell apart.

If you go back to 2021 our xgoals at 5v5 was almost exactly in line with how many we ended up scoring (we actually out performed the metric by a handful of goals). Ditto in 2020, and in 2019 we heavily outperformed the metric scoring way more goals than it thought we should.

It's only last year that our finishing was way below what xgoals thought we should be getting.

At 5v5 at least. I haven't looked into the PP numbers

 

[Andy99]

Performance matters, but we need to let players play through things..



I’m fine with it too.

We allow them to play thru their struggles, which have been going on for two years, except when it comes to POJ, or anyone age 26 and younger…

 

[pistolpete11]

Not necessarily. The analytics have loved the Pens for years, but it was only last year that the finishing fell apart.

If you go back to 2021 our xgoals at 5v5 was almost exactly in line with how many we ended up scoring (we actually out performed the metric by a handful of goals). Ditto in 2020, and in 2019 we heavily outperformed the metric scoring way more goals than it thought we should.

It's only last year that our finishing was way below what xgoals thought we should be getting.

At 5v5 at least. I haven't looked into the PP numbers

What about in the playoffs?

I remember a lot of "We're getting a lot of shots. The goals will come." comments. And then the goals just never came.

 

[Zbynek]

How many games do we realistically need to lose in a row for Sully to get the axe? Dallas and Colorado gets us to 2-5-0 pretty comfortably but then we have Ducks x2 and Sharks after that. Too bad, I think the pressure would really be on if we started 2-8-0 in the first 10.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Pens might get reamed the next couple of games, but they also have a habit of playing up or down to their competition.

 

[Gurglesons]

Pens might get reamed the next couple of games, but they also have a habit of playing up or down to their competition.

Yeah, feels to me like we go to OT against the Stars either win or lose and then beat the Avs so people say SEE and then get wildly destroyed by Ottawa, Anaheim and on the California swing.

 

[Zbynek]

Pens might get reamed the next couple of games, but they also have a habit of playing up or down to their competition.

Sad reality is we have too much talent for a true 10-20 game slide to go down. Mike Sullivan forever baby.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

What about in the playoffs?

I remember a lot of "We're getting a lot of shots. The goals will come." comments. And then the goals just never came.

"That line is gonna score so many goals"

-Mark Recchi on the Zucker/Malkin/Rust line that ended up scoring zero goals. (But had REAL nice fancy numbers probably)

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Performance matters, but we need to let players play through things.

That answer was close to a Matt Canada level of defensiveness to a media question

 

[Andy99]

The goals don’t come because:
1) expected goals doesn’t take account of the quality of the shot very well
2) our shots are from places where there are opposing players blocking the shot
3) we don’t do a very good of getting to a place where we can have a solid open look
4) most of our shooters aren’t creative and lack the ability to change the angle of the shot on the fly or be deceptive and get the goalie moving, and those that are (like Geno) have declined in their ability to start-stop and dangle etc)
5) we don’t have many shooters with a quick or deceptive release
6) we don’t get to net enough and don’t get enough shots thru for tips and deflections
7) we don’t shoot for enough rebounds off the goalie’s pads and have players in the crease there to clean up the shot when we do

 

[HandshakeLine]

Performance matters, but we need to let players play through things..



I’m fine with it too.

Lol he never says this when a young player struggles

 

[Gurglesons]

Lol he never says this when a young player struggles

He's playing Ryan Shea and Zohorna!

DOMINIK SIMON!!!!

ZACH ASTON REESE

JOHN MARINO...

 

[Pancakes]

What about in the playoffs?

I remember a lot of "We're getting a lot of shots. The goals will come." comments. And then the goals just never came.

2021: Scored - 20. Expected - 23
2020: Scored - 12. Expected - 12
2019: Scored - 4. Expected - 7
2018: Scored - 4. Expected - 8 (lmao)
2017: Scored - 28. Expected - 21 (this was where Jake and Sid were finishing every damned thing)
2016: Scored - 50. Expected - 43
2015: Scored - 50. Expected - 52 (most dominant Pens team in Sully era)

Finishing actually showed as less of an issue in the numbers than I thought it would. But again these are 5v5 numbers and I'm sure the PP was a hot mess from 2018-now in the playoffs.

As for "we're getting a lot of shots. The goals will come" well...xgoals can have wonky results due to how random finishing can be in hockey. Over time you'd expect the numbers to even out somewhat to where a team that controls play will get their share of goals, but as we all know it doesn't always work out that way on a game to game or even year to year basis. Teams get lucky for entire seasons. And teams get unlucky for the same.

I am fully on board with replacing Sully fwiw, so please don't take this as me defending him this year.

 

[vodeni]

In other words, we didn’t learn anything lol





Consistency which has been an issue for
two years lol…

This is exactly what I was worried about...I put together these lines and this system. IT MUST WORK! The worst part is that he brainwashed all the players, including Sid to repeat this mantra, they spilled same bullshit after the CBJ game last year and guess what...They lost to Chicago playing the same way...Its deeply entranched, its in their practice, muscle memory, that they have no clue what they are doing is wrong (during the game)...

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

He's playing Ryan Shea and Zohorna!

DOMINIK SIMON!!!!

ZACH ASTON REESE

JOHN MARINO...

With a track record of player development such as this... the future is undoubtedly in great hands!

 

[Gurglesons]

With a track record of player development such as this... the future is undoubtedly in great hands!

It's kinda funny Yager is at a 1.88 PPG pace in junior, but we couldn't give him one look in camp on a line with Sid or Malkin, because of reasons.

2021: Scored - 20. Expected - 23
2020: Scored - 12. Expected - 12
2019: Scored - 4. Expected - 7
2018: Scored - 4. Expected - 8 (lmao)
2017: Scored - 28. Expected - 21 (this was where Jake and Sid were finishing every damned thing)
2016: Scored - 50. Expected - 43
2015: Scored - 50. Expected - 52 (most dominant Pens team in Sully era)

Finishing actually showed as less of an issue in the numbers than I thought it would. But again these are 5v5 numbers and I'm sure the PP was a hot mess from 2018-now in the playoffs.

As for "we're getting a lot of shots. The goals will come" well...xgoals can have wonky results due to how random finishing can be in hockey. Over time you'd expect the numbers to even out somewhat to where a team that controls play will get their share of goals, but as we all know it doesn't always work out that way on a game to game or even year to year basis. Teams get lucky for entire seasons. And teams get unlucky for the same.

I am fully on board with replacing Sully fwiw, so please don't take this as me defending him this year.

I think the expected goal model has shown it is not predictive of anything tbh over the last few years.

 

[Pancakes]

It's kinda funny Yager is at a 1.88 PPG pace in junior, but we couldn't give him one look in camp on a line with Sid or Malkin, because of reasons.



I think the expected goal model has shown it is not predictive of anything tbh over the last few years.

At this point isn't Yager being as far away from Sully as possible a good thing?

By the time he makes the team maybe there will be a new coach in place who won't ruin his development.

 

[Gurglesons]

At this point isn't Yager being as far away from Sully as possible a good thing?

By the time he makes the team maybe there will be a new coach in place who won't ruin his development.

My point is more so that teams like Boston, Buffalo, and others give their players an honest chance to succeed.

Our coach says "can they PK"

Why isn't Crosby Pking?

 

[HandshakeLine]

I feel like Sid likes to say how much he loves every coach but it is wild how bad he has looked for significant stretches the last few years. There could be a lot of unpleasant or minor reasons for it (lost a love of the game, too much Cyberpunk 2077 now that they fixed it, is actually starting to become washed), but it is noticeable and not super reassuring.

The only other time he looked this disinterested on ice was under HCMJ, but that doesn’t prove anything one way or the other..

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

In other words, we didn’t learn anything lol





Consistency which has been an issue for
two years lol…

Sullivan's quotes are an automated message at this point. He literally has been saying the same thing for multiple seasons now.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I feel like Sid likes to say how much he loves every coach but it is wild how bad he has looked for significant stretches the last few years. There could be a lot of unpleasant or minor reasons for it (lost a love of the game, too much Cyberpunk 2077 now that they fixed it, is actually starting to become washed), but it is noticeable and not super reassuring.

My dude... this game, now.

I mean DAMN.

 

[Pancakes]

My point is more so that teams like Boston, Buffalo, and others give their players an honest chance to succeed.

Our coach says "can they PK"

Why isn't Crosby Pking?

Crosby isn't pking because he's old af and Sully probably wants to manage his minutes.

Agree that other teams give young guys a better chance. It's a strange thing because when Sully first got called up that was one of his strengths. But maybe it was never a strength of his and the only reason that Rust etc got shots early on in Sully's career is because he knew them from coaching them in the AHL. As soon as he stopped being familiar with our young guys, that was the end of them getting a chance.

 

[Gurglesons]

Crosby isn't pking because he's old af and Sully probably wants to manage his minutes.

Agree that other teams give young guys a better chance. It's a strange thing because when Sully first got called up that was one of his strengths. But maybe it was never a strength of his and the only reason that Rust etc got shots early on in Sully's career is because he knew them from coaching them in the AHL. As soon as he stopped being familiar with our young guys, that was the end of them getting a chance.

Plenty of other old players PK.

Jeff Carter is older and PK'd..

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Was kinda interested to look up how we're doing analytically as a team and see that we're actually 4th in the league in 5v5 xgoals at the moment.

A reason for optimism perhaps?

But we've seen this movie before. Didn't AB post a ton this offseason about how we've been near top of the league in terms of EXPECTED goals for, but our conversion rate sucks out loud?