Player Discussion: Patrik Laine IVever: a new hope? (Laine out of PAP, trade request still stands)

[majormajor]

and why do you think he gets 7.5m in arbitration?

Arbitrators are going to rip him on his possession stats, the injuries, the inconsistency. And the 2021 season performance counts.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[PhilJets]

I believe if Laine can see that he plays with Gaudreu and by doing that he gets a shot at Maurice Trophy.
He will sign...


The guy just wants to be the go to guy.
Laine at his best is unstoppable.

 

[EspenK]

I think it ends up being a two or three year deal for 8.5 mil cap hit. Laine gets to pump his numbers up playing with Gaudreau and then hits the UFA market with a much bigger cap for teams to use and he can get his big payday then while still in his prime.

I really doubt that Jarmo would do this. Imo if that is the only deal Laine will sign then Jarmo tells him to take the QO and we'll see what happens. They will reach agreement around 9mm and either 7 or 8 years.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

That's just an indication that Laine and his agent aren't fools. A $7.5m arbitration award isn't going to help him.

I agree. I don't see a point in going to arbitration because I don't see an arbitrator giving anything more or significantly more than his QO. We see where the free agent market has been Laine isn't going to get significantly more on the open market right now from a comparable standpoint.

If they are 1.5 million apart in negotiations like I've seen mentioned, I'm guessing he wants 9.5 and Jarmo is offering 8. The 2nd leading scorer in the NHL and ppg player just got 9.75 from the CBJ. I don't see Laine getting more than 8.5 at most and I don't think an arbitrator will award that much.

Either way, arbitration is only going to be worth it for the player if it can be a significant improvement on his QO. In Laine's case, It seems like it would be minimal.

 

[Toe Pick]

That's just an indication that Laine and his agent aren't fools. A $7.5m arbitration award isn't going to help him.

Or they know arbitration is ugly and the two sides are close enough that they believe a deal will get done.

I’m usually the pessimist but I believe this is positive news.

 

[Youngguns1380]

I would also imagine if they do agree in principle to a deal. Jarmo would probably execute trades or a plan before signing Patrick to not lose leverage in any deals.

 

[stevo61]

I would also imagine if they do agree in principle to a deal. Jarmo would probably execute trades or a plan before signing Patrick to not lose leverage in any deals.

I doubt it would change much. Other gm's know exactly whats going on salary cap wise. Like us they may not know every potential trade Jarmo is investigating however

 

[VT]

Laine is UFA after this season. Therefore, a one season, even $7.5M contract might not bother him. On the contrary, he would only benefit from it:

1. if CBJ accepts it, he would be UFA after the season, and it doesn't matter what team,

2. negotiations would continue, while his price would increase, thanks to the presence of Johnny Gaudreau, and he wouldn't even have to play with him in the lineup, one'd still have better stats,

3. CBJ would not agree, in this case he is UFA.

Because of all this, I think he wants to stay here for a long time.

 

[DJA]

July 22 is another critical date, which is when QOs expire. Obviously if Laine accepts his offer before then, it’s not wonderful news.

 

[MissADD]

I would also imagine if they do agree in principle to a deal. Jarmo would probably execute trades or a plan before signing Patrick to not lose leverage in any deals.

I doubt it would change much. Other gm's know exactly whats going on salary cap wise. Like us they may not know every potential trade Jarmo is investigating however

I think Laine is the main focus so Jarmo knows how much to move to ensure there is room to sign peeke and gavrikov next year

 

[stevo61]

I think Laine is the main focus so Jarmo knows how much to move to ensure there is room to sign peeke and gavrikov next year

A year is a long time. GMs are always focused on the cap situation but wont trade a player for space they may need a year from now

 

[AirSox]

July 22 is another critical date, which is when QOs expire. Obviously if Laine accepts his offer before then, it’s not wonderful news.

He wants to sign here long term so I don't see a reason to worry.

 

[DJA]

He wants to sign here long term so I don't see a reason to worry.

Right. If he doesn’t accept the QO by that date, I’ll feel much better.

 

[Viqsi]

Also worthy of note - if you elect arbitration, you're not eligible for offer sheets.

 

[EspenK]

July 22 is another critical date, which is when QOs expire. Obviously if Laine accepts his offer before then, it’s not wonderful news.

So then what happens? I did find where the Jackets can extend the QO by sending an appropriate letter to the league that contains a definitive date as to when the offer will expire. If they do that and no deal is reached then Jacket could offer less? Laine sits out a year?

 

[DJA]

So then what happens? I did find where the Jackets can extend the QO by sending an appropriate letter to the league that contains a definitive date as to when the offer will expire. If they do that and no deal is reached then Jacket could offer less? Laine sits out a year?

If the offer expires Laine remains an RFA but has to sign a new contract by December 1 or is ineligible to play this season.

 

[Halberdier]

Arbitrators are going to rip him on his possession stats, the injuries, the inconsistency. And the 2021 season performance counts.

His season 2022 performance counts more and it's better than his season before his 7.5M contract. Also it's Laine's arbitration right with 7.5M minimum, not the team's. I find it really hard to justify <8M after season 2022.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Item No. 3: More moves coming​

Restricted free agent Patrik Laine will not file for salary arbitration by the 5 p.m. Sunday deadline, a source has told The Athletic.


That’s a good indication that negotiations between the Blue Jackets and Laine’s agent, Andy Scott, while not moving as quickly as some would like, remain amicable. The week ahead seems crucial, though.


Laine has until 5 p.m. Friday to accept his qualifying offer. If he doesn’t accept, the two sides will continue to negotiate with a deadline of Dec. 1 to get a deal done for Laine to be eligible to play this season.


If he accepts his qualifying offer, Laine’s immediately under contract for one year at $7.5 million. And though that might sound like good news in the short term, that’s when the process would get really interesting, and maybe a touch uncomfortable.


By accepting his qualifying offer, Laine would set himself up to hit unrestricted free agency next summer at only 25 years old. And it’s unclear whether the Blue Jackets would be willing to hold on to him under those conditions and risk losing him for nothing just one year later. (This scenario is why trade rumors involving Laine continued to swirl at the NHL Draft and on the first day of NHL free agency.)


If Laine takes his qualifying offer, the two sides could negotiate an extension, but that contract couldn’t be signed until Jan. 1, about 2 1/2 months into the season.


That’s just one reason the Blue Jackets would like to get a long-term contract with Laine hammered out this week.


As soon as Laine signs — whether that’s him inking a long-term deal or him signing his qualifying offer — the Blue Jackets will be over the NHL salary cap by the largest amount in the organization’s history.


That’s OK, though. Not only did Kekalainen know this would happen when they took the plunge on Gaudreau, but also the NHL allows clubs to be 10 percent over the $82.5 million cap during the offseason without penalty.


The biggest issue isn’t how much over the cap Laine’s deal would push the Blue Jackets. They have a pretty good idea where his long-term contract would land, and Kekaleinen agreed with estimates that predicted he’d need to clear between $5 million and $6 million off the books.


If Kekalainen gets a great offer, he could swing the deal before Laine’s contract is signed. But in the perfect world, he’d rather get Laine signed first and then make the trade that puts the Jackets back under the cap.


That way, he doesn’t trade away a valuable player, and possibly other assets, only to learn that Laine’s not long for Columbus.


“We’ll keep talking,” Kekalainen said. “It’s not like we haven’t been negotiating in good faith. We have been, the whole time. At some point, it’ll be decision time.”

 

[majormajor]

His season 2022 performance counts more and it's better than his season before his 7.5M contract. Also it's Laine's arbitration right with 7.5M minimum, not the team's. I find it really hard to justify <8M after season 2022.

If his 2021 season, when he was a net negative player, counts at all (it does), then that kills his value in arbitration.

 

[Toe Pick]

If Laine just accepts his QO Jarmo has to deal him for the best return preferably with a 2023 1st involved. We are not in a position to let him walk for nothing.

Friday is shaping up to be a big day for the future of Laine in a CBJ sweater.

 

[behemolari]

There is no way Laine will turn off chance to play with JG next 7 years, absolutely no way

 

[Halberdier]

If his 2021 season, when he was a net negative player, counts at all (it does), then that kills his value in arbitration.

I am pretty sure that all his other seasons, including his most recent should count much more than his by far worst season. It's really unreasonable to expect anything other.

 

[AirSox]

I'm confident we'll get a deal done or maybe I'm just trying to convince myself. It's a tad bit suspenseful.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

As reported and expected, Laine did not file for arbitration