Player Discussion: Patrik Laine IVever: a new hope? (Laine out of PAP, trade request still stands)

[Xoggz22]

Pro

Problem is offer sheeting. There are some teams with cap space available for that and even though CBJ would call it, it is not a good approach. But I suppose that Patrik will sign as soon as CBJ has cap space available, also might be that the deal is already agreed but Jarmo doesn't want to publish it before he gets cap space cleared.

No concerns with an offer sheet. He certainly will be approached but unless he signs one it's a moot point. There aren't many teams that have the ability to do so and any deal is likely to give the CBJ the draft compensation that would support letting him go (I don't think they want that type of approach but...), or like Montreal and Aho, they match because it makes it a fit. Very little concern he is lost as a RFA. Also, he does not need to wait for cap space. Teams can go up to 10% over the cap in the off season but need to be compliant by opening night.

 

[Aurinko]

With Gaudreau Laines expectation should be 40 goal/82 games about.

I can’t think of a reason why Laine should want to play anywhere else and I hope Jarmo isn’t lowballing him too much

Any nhl player will score 20g if paired 1st line with Gaudreau. ANY. Any elite shooter (12%+ career shot) will have 30G with him. Laine shot is exceptional and Gaudreau passing is exceptional. 40g is what would be expected if they play 82 games healthy together.

As a finn, ofc I want to see that happen, but my problem is that even in the best scenario that doesnt seem to be enough to catch the top dogs.

6x9

Nice.

 

[NotWendell]

Laine should also look at how free agents fared this week. If I'm not mistaken, the free agent that got the most $ per year was (drumroll) Johnny Gaudreau. And he got less interest than a lot of people expected.

 

[Xoggz22]

Laine should also look at how free agents fared this week. If I'm not mistaken, the free agent that got the most $ per year was (drumroll) Johnny Gaudreau. And he got less interest than a lot of people expected.

I don't recall where I saw it but Gaudreau's expected, EXPECTED, contract on the free agent market should have been $13.8M AAV. While maybe not realistic, it should have been more than his current deal and I'm with you, Laine's contract should be equally depressed. The good thing out of that is there wont' be much change in the UFA market next year so if it is about money, he may be hard pressed getting anythign like that next year and that's dependent on his play this year. Bird in the hand or less than a bird in the bush?

 

[LJ7]

Laine should also look at how free agents fared this week. If I'm not mistaken, the free agent that got the most $ per year was (drumroll) Johnny Gaudreau. And he got less interest than a lot of people expected.

If he really wants to cash out he needs to take shorter term and get a new contract in 2025 or so. Covid really lowered what guys are getting. Also shows how committed Johnny was to coming here for him to sign a contract past the upcoming 2016 NBA summer-esque cap explosion years.

 

[DougKnowsBest]

Totally agree. I think short term deals for superstars right now make total sense. Laine should bet on himself on a 2 or 3 year deal and then reassess in the new 2025 market.

 

[Ippenator]

Any nhl player will score 20g if paired 1st line with Gaudreau. ANY. Any elite shooter (12%+ career shot) will have 30G with him. Laine shot is exceptional and Gaudreau passing is exceptional. 40g is what would be expected if they play 82 games healthy together.

As a finn, ofc I want to see that happen, but my problem is that even in the best scenario that doesnt seem to be enough to catch the top dogs.


Nice.

Can you tell me how many players have scored over 20 goals playing with McDavid and Draisaitl? I can help you with saying that there isn’t a que on it, although there has been already many players trying to get their chances with that.

 

[majormajor]

It's probably not a gap that's impossible to bridge. But now that Gaudreau is in the fold, Laine has to do some searching on whether or not he wants to be paid well and grow here or get paid extremely well and go elsewhere.

I don't think Laine can get more elsewhere. Maybe he thinks he can, but I don't think he is going to get big money elsewhere. I don't see anyone paying him $10m x 8 and maybe no one paying him $9m x 8.

This is a player who generally has much lower value with GMs than with HFers (per reports in the past). Where we see a hot month of play and imagine what would be if he only added consistency, they see inconsistency and it's a knock against him. The yearly injuries are also a big factor. Just looking at clubs cap space around the league, you're talking about a very small group of teams that can make big numbers happen. Maybe New Jersey, Calgary, Seattle, Anaheim. It's hard to tell but some of those GMs just might not be interested at all.

The issue isn't getting more elsewhere, the issue is that he might not extend anywhere until he gets his number, he'll just keep going on one year deals and that is just too much drama for us. I really want him to stay but I don't want to have another drama filled season again.

 

[Dumais]

I hope they sign him to the same length as JG. Having 2 top line wingers under 20m would be fantastic. Plus it would make it easier to get a QUALITY #1C in a couple years when we free up cap space. Then it would be a serious cup run.

EDIT: Actually I prefer it be staggered between Werenski and Gaudreau's contracts.

EDIT2: Just looked 28-29 ALL 8!

My guess 8x9m (prefer 8x8.5m)

 

[majormajor]

Laine has arbitration rights, 7.5M as a baseline and an excellent last season where he was head and shoulders above other forwards, so I guess that even from arbitration he can expect having 2*8.25M deal that would lead him to UFA. So in that sense I don't think Laine's agent is content with some 8*8.5M deal.

Arbitration one year from UFA can only be a 1 year deal, unfortunately. If the Jackets could choose 2 years then I would actually prefer doing that above all other options!

I don't think Laine gets much above $8m in arbitration, maybe a bit under it. Arbitrators these days use every analytic stat at their disposal, they also factor in consistency, injuries, etc... All the things that weigh against Laine are counted and the things that especially weigh in his favor - that he subjectively looks like a guy who could score 100 bazillion goals - are not counted.

 

[NotCommitted]

The issue isn't getting more elsewhere, the issue is that he might not extend anywhere until he gets his number, he'll just keep going on one year deals and that is just too much drama for us. I really want him to stay but I don't want to have another drama filled season again.

I get the sense he wants a longer deal, but ofc I have no idea if he's set on a number and what that number is. I think a bit of term would be best for everyone, Laine gets to focus on hockey, management gets to focus on planning for the future and fans will be free of the speculation and crap that comes with contract talk A longer deal would also mean he's still around when the team is ready to go somewhere - the sweet spot for the team currently seems around 24-25 probably, depending how well/fast the young guys develop.

 

[PhilJets]

With Laine just give him the confidence that he will be the main sniper and on top line.

Its about money at the end but i don't believe its all about money for him. If he sees that he can maximize his scoring (now with Gudreau in) there is a great chance he signs long term.

Also he is a proud player, he has a lot to prove again.
First being one of the league best sniper.

 

[AirSox]

 

[BB88]

If they are a million apart I see no reason to panic.

This won’t fall apart because of that.

Right now 8x6y sounds sweet.
If you get 40 goals per year for that money you are getting a steal

 

[SK7CBJ]

I certainly don't understand contracts and their negotiation, but is an incentivized contract with lower AAV and possible bonuses with playoffs, Rocket Richard trophy, Stanley Cup winner be an option?

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

I certainly don't understand contracts and their negotiation, but is an incentivized contract with lower AAV and possible bonuses with playoffs, Rocket Richard trophy, Stanley Cup winner be an option?

He’s not eligible for a bonus-laden contract

 

[Marioesque]

It will get done, it's too great of an opportunity to miss now that they landed Gaudreau. You have one of the best players with the puck, great zone entries and draws a lot of defensive attention, makes excellent passes and can finish his chances. And the opportunity to sign the best sniper in the game to finally unlock his full potential.

Clearly Jarmo is not afraid to make moves so he'll get it done and we get to enjoy

 

[Jovavic]

I think it ends up being a two or three year deal for 8.5 mil cap hit. Laine gets to pump his numbers up playing with Gaudreau and then hits the UFA market with a much bigger cap for teams to use and he can get his big payday then while still in his prime.

 

[BB88]

I think it ends up being a two or three year deal for 8.5 mil cap hit. Laine gets to pump his numbers up playing with Gaudreau and then hits the UFA market with a much bigger cap for teams to use and he can get his big payday then while still in his prime.

They’ve agreed both want a longterm deal done and it’s smart for both sides.

For Columbu/Jarmo it gives stability& it makes Columbus easier to sell to players.
Like for example Winnipeg is in a rough spot
PLD’s agent has said out loud PLD would like to play in Montreal, Helle& Scheifele have 2 years left.
That’s not very attractive to players.

Now compare to a team that has their core 3 guys locked up for 6-7 years.
In 2 years time you’d have Laine, Johnson& Sillinger to sign.

 

[SK7CBJ]

He’s not eligible for a bonus-laden contract

thank you

 

[Toe Pick]

 

[CBJWerenski8]

That’s big news. And good news

 

[AirSox]

HELL YEAH!

 

[majormajor]

That's just an indication that Laine and his agent aren't fools. A $7.5m arbitration award isn't going to help him.

 

[stevo61]

That's just an indication that Laine and his agent aren't fools. A $7.5m arbitration award isn't going to help him.

and why do you think he gets 7.5m in arbitration?