Player Discussion: Patrik Laine IVever: a new hope? (Laine out of PAP, trade request still stands)

[thebus88]

If I had to pick between players I’d rather have Forsberg, Gaudreau, Guentzel, Jones and Werenski all over Laine at the same money.

Who knows what Laine or any of these guys will look like in 2-3-4 years, just over a year ago he played terrible and his mindset was, “forget it”, how do we know that doesn’t happen after he signs this new contract??

Think that’s an angle that hasn’t really been talked about, Laine’s motivation/effort issues that DO EXIST and how he will ACTUALLY PERFORM after signing a huge contract…

 

[thebus88]

If Laine can stay healthy for a full season, there's no reason why he can't put up 60 goals when PP works. That potential is worth a lot of money, more than 10 million, and most would expect him to be healthy enough to justify paying for it. I do get that it's scary because he hasn't had many full healthy seasons yet, but if he does play 82 in a season, he can seriously be a bargain even at 9-10 million. He is a winning player and that's what you pay for. He's also the most marketable asset, which sells jerseys and seats.

If Laine can stay healthy for a full season, there's no reason why he can't put up 60 goals when PP works.

Other than issues with effort level, consistency, and overall skill issues, I’d say no reason at all.

 

[VT]

About the same, because he's frequently had to go without due to Crosby's injuries and still manages to ruin our day every time we play 'em. He's 100% legit and we should all hate him for it.

O.K. my mistake

 

[Viqsi]

If I had to pick between players I’d rather have Forsberg, Gaudreau, Guentzel, Jones and Werenski all over Laine at the same money.

Who knows what Laine or any of these guys will look like in 2-3-4 years, just over a year ago he played terrible and his mindset was, “forget it”, how do we know that doesn’t happen after he signs this new contract??

Think that’s an angle that hasn’t really been talked about, Laine’s motivation/effort issues that DO EXIST and how he will ACTUALLY PERFORM after signing a huge contract…

Personally, after how well the team stepped up despite all the Panarin and Bobrovsky drama in the sweep year, I'm reasonably confident that can be addressed. Sure, several of the guys who were in that room aren't anymore, but I think enough are present to make a difference.

He wants to win here. He's made that pretty clear. I'd like to give him that chance. Even if he doesn't turn out to be the best player, he's got the skill and reputation others fear and so he's still going to be a distraction on the ice for the other side while our harder workers make them pay.

It's not the usual way I'd opt to build a team from the ground up - folks who come up with that plan try to start by tanking to get the unique badass, which kinds of ruins things - but in this case we've got the guy already, so that doesn't have to be a problem.

 

[NotCommitted]

Laine has scored 40+ goals exactly once and it was four seasons ago. Since then he has scored 30, 28, 12, and 26 goals. That's not elite and if he hasn't hit his prime yet when does he plan on getting there? He's been in the league six years now. The chance of him becoming something he hasn't shown yet is very slim.

Goal scoring leaders over the span of Laine's first 180 games in the league (from beginning of 2016-17 season up until December 1st of 2018. Cherry picked? You bet, but that's still a sample size of well over 2 full seasons of hockey, most of which Laine was still a teenager. So he absolutely has been the best (or at least top3) goal scorer in the league, as a 18-20 year old, while playing 2nd line minutes one might add.

So is it really that unrealistic and out of this world to think a prime Laine might get back there or at least close? You can't pay only on potential or some vague hope, but in Laine you've got a player who has already shown he can be at the absolute top in this league offensively. He hasn't been there lately, but he's also had injury problems and he just turned 24, it's not like he's over the hill.

 

[NotCommitted]

NC explained the details of the Zach/Patrik comparison but the simple truth is Zach has proven to be a more dependable top-level player and deserves to make more than Laine. In no way is his deal an overpay and if Patrik gets the same deal it will be.

Ironically Werenski's season was a bit of a stinker really A random fun factoid, when he was on ice without Laine 5v5, he had about 38% GF. (With Laine 51%, Laine without Werenski 49%)

Actually I think Laine's performance this year gets quite underrated because it happened in a team that was a crap and because he missed so many games + goals lucky anyway.

 

[Easternbull]

Look at Carolina for example, they had it all(well Anderson was injured) apart from a gamebraker and look where it got them in the playoffs.

You cant win without gamebrakers like Pasternak, Kucherov, Ovechkin and Tarasenko.

Kucherov like I stated previously is a great example of this, Tampa coaching staff/teamates gives him some slack, beacuse even though he does not drive play or defend like Maark Stone, they know they cant contend without him.

 

[majormajor]

What hockey player hits their prime at 23?

Offensive prime?

A while ago I saw a chart showing that most top scorers have their highest scoring season between 21 and 25.

 

[majormajor]

We can't really know the future with Laine. Some think Laine will only get better, some expect continued inconsistency. Was he the Jackets best player last year? Yeah, for about six weeks. We don't have enough of a track record here.

Can we just do a $9m x 3 and kick the can down the road? Let Laine prove it if he thinks he's going to be great.

 

[NotCommitted]

Can we just do a $9m x 3 and kick the can down the road? Let Laine prove it if he thinks he's going to be great.

I'm in favor of the "give yourself a grade" approach. Trap him in a small room with Jarmo with a signed and ready to go 6-year deal where he just needs to fill in the AAV he believes is a fair salary for his services. Maybe with a little handbook with all the current contracts around the league in case he doesn't know what other people make.

 

[Halberdier]

We can't really know the future with Laine. Some think Laine will only get better, some expect continued inconsistency. Was he the Jackets best player last year? Yeah, for about six weeks. We don't have enough of a track record here.

Can we just do a $9m x 3 and kick the can down the road? Let Laine prove it if he thinks he's going to be great.

Laine has been good when he has been healthy. His health problems (esp. 18-19, 20-21, 21-22) are a major concern, but otherwise I am really optimistic about upcoming seasons.

It was known well before his NHL career that it will take a lot of time for him to fill his tall, skinny, lanky body. It's just that he also happened to be so hugely talented that despite his obvious physical limitations he happened to be a star for his rookie & sophmore seasons might have fooled a lot of fans that he was ready: physically he was not, but I think he is now there, and way quicker than Blake Wheeler who is his comparable in terms of body size: It took 8 years for Wheeler from draft to be a remotely good on NHL, and later he became a star.

With his sheer talent Laine surpassed Wheelers' draft+8 season numbers on his first season, but now with physical maturity he can really drive the offense, even with 2nd/3rd line guys like Jenner & Nyquist. I expect consistent >PPG production for healthy Laine with adequate lines and working PP. Who knows if KJ might join Jenner & Laine and we could see some magick happening? "All-junior line" with Silly would propably be too much to ask for now.

 

[Vapaatunnus]

Just curious, it seems that QO is one year length and CBJ must do that to Laine today at latest? So if he just takes it he walks next summer as UFA?

 

[stevo61]

Just curious, it seems that QO is one year length and CBJ must do that to Laine today at latest? So if he just takes it he walks next summer as UFA?

they can qualify him to hold his rights but still work out a deal

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Just curious, it seems that QO is one year length and CBJ must do that to Laine today at latest? So if he just takes it he walks next summer as UFA?

Yes. Which is what josh Anderson threatened to do two seasons ago if we didn’t pay him what he wanted, and was promptly traded to montreal.

Laine holds a lot of leverage with that card and arbitration rights.

 

[Xoggz22]

Just curious, it seems that QO is one year length and CBJ must do that to Laine today at latest? So if he just takes it he walks next summer as UFA?

That is correct. QO is to retain his rights. As he only has 1 year left as RFA, if he signs his QO, it takes him to UFA next Summer. I believe the negotiating window opens up after mid-season but not really sure on that. Might be next off season prior to him becoming a UFA. Either way, that would be a nightmare situation for Columbus if he signed his QO. Would truly signify he wants out. Next step that would show they are working towards a deal would be if he elects NOT to apply for arbitration. That would be a very positive sign.

 

[majormajor]

Laine has been good when he has been healthy. His health problems (esp. 18-19, 20-21, 21-22) are a major concern, but otherwise I am really optimistic about upcoming seasons.

When it's a long term contract, I'm not interested in excuses. Consistency and health and an NHL physique are all things you're paying for with those contracts. A guy who is your best player a couple months per year is not worth as much as you think.

 

[Halberdier]

When it's a long term contract, I'm not interested in excuses. Consistency and health and an NHL physique are all things you're paying for with those contracts. A guy who is your best player a couple months per year is not worth as much as you think.

Definitely. His health concerns are real concerns for the contract, esp. long one.

But they aren't excuses. Facts do matter.

 

[majormajor]

Definitely. His health concerns are real concerns for the contract, esp. long one.

But they aren't excuses. Facts do matter.

Folks often interpret the word "excuses" differently. By some definitions it means a genuine reason, and by other definitions a false reason.

In this case I'm saying it is genuine but that it doesn't matter. If someone very often has genuine reasons why they can't perform at a high level, then that lowers the expectations you have for them. That's why I say that I'm not interested in excuses in this contract context. You either did the job or you didn't.

 

[Halberdier]

Folks often interpret the word "excuses" differently. By some definitions it means a genuine reason, and by other definitions a false reason.

In this case I'm saying it is genuine but that it doesn't matter. If someone very often has genuine reasons why they can't perform at a high level, then that lowers the expectations you have for them. That's why I say that I'm not interested in excuses in this contract context. You either did the job or you didn't.

Yeah, then I agree 100%.

Fortunately CBJ, as an NHL team should have excellent doctors that do review their skaters so the management team knows better if those injuries in the past are more one off & unlucky or will they be rotting Laine's career indefinitely.

 

[NotCommitted]

Yeah, then I agree 100%.

Fortunately CBJ, as an NHL team should have excellent doctors that do review their skaters so the management team knows better if those injuries in the past are more one off & unlucky or will they be rotting Laine's career indefinitely.

They haven't really been ever fully disclosed publicly, but I recall one interview last winter where it came up that was the 3rd time he had an oblique strain during his NHL career. My guess is the other two where right when he was traded to CBJ (wasn't that one confirmed?) and then not sure about the 3rd, but could've been 18-19, though wasn't that supposed to be a back thing and I remember he kept playing it down it didn't affect his performance.

So on the surface it doesn't really seem they are on off & unlucky, but hopefully it's something they can fix with training. In any case CBJ will know exactly what is going on and how big of a risk it's going forward, me speculating on the interwebs won't do much

 

[DarkandStormy]

 

[MissADD]

I believe him on this. It wouldn't shock me if they agreed to easy back negations a bit with Laine being an RFA and the draft and free agency happening. I wouldn't be shocked if they aren't to far off and it will be done like 2 weeks from tomorrow.

 

[SK7CBJ]

If they are close fine, but my concern is the timing. If Jarmo is planning on diving into the free agency pool it would be nice to know what kind of money we have available and who might be on the chopping block to accommodate said free agent.

 

[stevo61]

When does Jarmo ever look for big FAs? Generally he looks for the forgotten guys like Nyquist and Kuraly.

 

[CBJx614]

If they are close fine, but my concern is the timing. If Jarmo is planning on diving into the free agency pool it would be nice to know what kind of money we have available and who might be on the chopping block to accommodate said free agent.

I would imagine they have a pretty good idea on the needed space for Laine. Somewhere in the 8-10 range. And it's not like we're hurting for cap right now