Player Discussion: Patrik Laine IVever: a new hope? (Laine out of PAP, trade request still stands)

[CBJWerenski8]

I don't think of Laine as a guy that doesn't try defensively. He's a good backchecker. But he's also frequently a one-and-done rush player. As opposed to a cycle line that will get pucks deep and work them around over the course of 30+ seconds (think Crosby's line, Bergeron's line, etc...), Laine and his linemates will go in on the rush, make a shot attempt, and then not get the puck back, possibly for the entirety of the shift. It's the other team's turn to try and score for most of their TOI. I'm pretty sure Laine didn't make the team better defensively.

While Laine himself might be a one and done rush player, our entire team was pretty rush orientated last year. If we are able to surround him with talented skill guys who dominate the puck and work the corners, it would force Laine to play more in the zone. And again, even if he himself is not that type of player, it’s far better having Laine in the offensive zone than not.

The challenge is if it’s worth paying that type of player big money. And the other challenge is finding him those types of linemates.

I would still pay him as long as it’s around or lower than 9.

 

[Cowumbus]

26 of Laine’s 56 points came against playoff teams @thebus88

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Some of the models use xG for both ends of the ice and that really misses Laine's offensive value.

On the defensive side, I don't disagree in some ways. Laine does some nice things when the other team has the puck. But the other team still has the puck most of the time with him on the ice (to an extreme degree relative to other players) and that is the core of the issue. You either have the puck or you don't. If you don't have it the other team will usually score more, even if you are playing your ass off.

Laine kinda breaks the xG stat. He shoots from long distances which is something xG doesnt like. But because it's Laine, it's actually a very dangerius shot with or without mask.

Most models seem to use xG in some way, so everyone should just prepare thenselves for the analytics people with contract value predictors arguing his next contract is a huge overpay, no matter what he gets.

 

[majormajor]

Laine kinda breaks the xG stat. He shoots from long distances which is something xG doesnt like. But because it's Laine, it's actually a very dangerius shot with or without mask.

Most models seem to use xG in some way, so everyone should just prepare thenselves for the analytics people with contract value predictors arguing his next contract is a huge overpay, no matter what he gets.

Well like I was saying earlier, if a model uses GF for offense and xGA on defense it should come a lot closer to the truth. And Laine might actually be very overpaid in reality, not just in terms of xG but in terms of actual goals results that he creates, we'll see when the contract comes in.

 

[CBJx614]

Another comp bringing his price down

 

[BB88]

Another comp bringing his price down

That’s a tough one, how do you rate FF?
Can Laine ask the same or does this push his aav down.

18-19
50 points in 64 games

19-20
48 points in 63 games

20-21
32 points in 39 games

21-22
84 points in 69 games

Outside of this year those aren’t really star numbers.

& Laine is 4 years younger.


If they go for term right now 8 looking pretty good

 

[CBJx614]

That’s a tough one, how do you rate FF?
Can Laine ask the same or does this push his aav down.

18-19
50 points in 64 games

19-20
48 points in 63 games

20-21
32 points in 39 games

21-22
84 points in 69 games

Outside of this year those aren’t really star numbers.

& Laine is 4 years younger.


If they go for term right now 8 looking pretty good

His scoring rate isn't much different than Laines though. This season is Laines only true PPG season. He's come close twice before but never hit it.

How this effects Laines deal, I have no idea, but I can't see Laine getting 9.5 with all his comps signing under 9.


IIRC Jarmo said something early in the off-season about needing some players to take some team friendly deals if the Jackets really wanna compete long term.

I might have misphrased or misheard that though..

 

[majormajor]

That’s a tough one, how do you rate FF?
Can Laine ask the same or does this push his aav down.

18-19
50 points in 64 games

19-20
48 points in 63 games

20-21
32 points in 39 games

21-22
84 points in 69 games

Outside of this year those aren’t really star numbers.

& Laine is 4 years younger.


If they go for term right now 8 looking pretty good

Over the last four years:

Filip Forsberg has 214 pts in 235 games.

Patrik Laine has 193 pts in 252 games.

If one of these players isn't a star it's Laine.

His scoring rate isn't much different than Laines though.

A good step up from Laine.

 

[BB88]

Over the last four years:

Filip Forsberg has 214 pts in 235 games.

Patrik Laine has 193 pts in 252 games.

If one of these players isn't a star it's Laine.


A good step up from Laine.

I don’t think Laines on ice presence is star level.
But the issue is that by his goal/points totals he can ask more than he’s actually worth.

He was terrible last season, terrible.
But if you take that away his last 2 seasons were 63 points in 68 games and 56 points in 56 games.
That’s clear as day 1st liner production.

So where’s the middle ground where everyone is happy?
Today longterm deal around 8 would be for me, based on realistic view of the NHL.

His scoring rate isn't much different than Laines though. This season is Laines only true PPG season. He's come close twice before but never hit it.

How this effects Laines deal, I have no idea, but I can't see Laine getting 9.5 with all his comps signing under 9.


IIRC Jarmo said something early in the off-season about needing some players to take some team friendly deals if the Jackets really wanna compete long term.

I might have misphrased or misheard that though..

I hope Laine doesn’t go for the max amount and would be disappointed if he went for 9.5M.

He’s 24y 1 year away from UFA.
So a team signing him(hopefully Columbus) is going to be only prime UFA years from him and those are the most valuable.

FF is 28y and 8y deal has multiple past his prime years on it

 

[CBJx614]

Over the last four years:

Filip Forsberg has 214 pts in 235 games.

Patrik Laine has 193 pts in 252 games.

If one of these players isn't a star it's Laine.


A good step up from Laine.

I don’t think Laines on ice presence is star level.
But the issue is that by his goal/points totals he can ask more than he’s actually worth.

He was terrible last season, terrible.
But if you take that away his last 2 seasons were 63 points in 68 games and 56 points in 56 games.
That’s clear as day 1st liner production.

So where’s the middle ground where everyone is happy?
Today longterm deal around 8 would be for me, based on realistic view of the NHL.



I hope Laine doesn’t go for the max amount and would be disappointed if he went for 9.5M.

He’s 24y 1 year away from UFA.
So a team signing him(hopefully Columbus) is going to be only prime UFA years from him and those are the most valuable.

FF is 28y and 8y deal has multiple past his prime years on it

Before his comps signed I was sure he was gonna get 9+


Now.... I don't think he even gets 9.

 

[Keduzin]

Forsberg has allready hit his prime and that comtract includes many years where he will be past his prime. Laine has not even hit his prime yet. Pretty sure Laine should and will get more than 8.5 mil AAV

 

[NotCommitted]

Over the last four years:

Filip Forsberg has 214 pts in 235 games.

Patrik Laine has 193 pts in 252 games.

If one of these players isn't a star it's Laine.


A good step up from Laine.

This is all true but it isn't the full picture. This season was Forsberg's first of going P/GP and first over 35 goals. While 20-21 is Laine's responsibility, it's a clear outlier among his seasons. Forsberg is several years older. Forsberg has been a lot more average than Laine during his career, but also more consistent - in Forsberg defense, his career numbers would be probably higher if he had been playing somewhere else than NSH. Then again he just has a career year playing with Josi who was beasting.

Forsberg has no top10 goal finishes, Laine has two (2nd and 7th) though those were a long time ago, but he did them as a teenager. Laine has the clearly higher ceiling of the two, combine that with his age and previous contract and I would be surprised if his next deal was smaller than Forsberg's, if talking 8 years. If I got to pick one regardless of money, I'd still take Laine any day, maybe someone else would choose differently. In any case I still feel Forsberg is not a good comparable at all.

I think Laine's early career makes it impossible to sign him to a contract that will seem a great value at the moment of signing. I still think 5 years makes the most sense, it's a long term deal but should make it possible to find a compromise that brings his AAV somewhere around $8.5m. I don't know what Laine's camp is asking but I feel this the time to sign a longer deal and let your play on the ice for the next few years show it's a great value deal. 5 years would leave enough prime years after the contract to either chase the cup or sign one last big money deal.

Frankly if this thing drags on (not that it is doing so yet) I'll be a bit illogically pissed at both parties. At Jarmo for not paying the man and alienating players with contract negotiations and at Laine for asking unreasonable money while being up and down with his play and constantly injured and for not being where his mouth is (Oooh love the city & org, great locker room blah blah blah) and at myself for getting drawn into contract talks which I don't generally like and which tend to create unnecessary drama

Btw. I find it interesting I went on about how Forsberg is not a good comparable and then decide getting paid Forsberg money would be the right thing(tm). Albeit on shorter term.

TL;DR - $8.5m per, for 5 years. Done.

 

[NotCommitted]

Before his comps signed I was sure he was gonna get 9+


Now.... I don't think he even gets 9.

I think those last few years of term make all the difference - if signing max term deal, I can't see it being under 9m and probably closer to 10 than 9. He'd be signing away all his prime years, that contract would take him into his 30s. I still think for both parties 5 years makes the most sense. It's long enough to create some stability but short enough to lower the risk a bit and still let Laine get an another contract while still in his 20s.

I swear I try to stay clear of contract speculations from now on, frankly I have no idea what I'm talking about and don't really care, or want to care, and most importantly it's all just speculation unless Laine's agent or Jarmo is secretly posting.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Very interested to see what Gaudreau gets on the open market (assuming he goes). Clearly a better player than Laine, but if Gaudreau can't get more than 9-9.5 million on the open market then the Jackets have great leverage here.

 

[VT]

Very interested to see what Gaudreau gets on the open market (assuming he goes). Clearly a better player than Laine, but if Gaudreau can't get more than 9-9.5 million on the open market then the Jackets have great leverage here.

Gaudreau is 29 year on August, Laine is 24 years. 5 years difference. Laine's agents can use it. BUT... no team can give him more than $9.5M (maybe even $9M. Of course if he won't want to play in Arizona. On the other hand we don't know how many he wants to get and how many Jarmo wants to give him. Also clausulus.

But still one BUT. Remember how many peoples were angry Kaprizov's salary. After one season with no too strong division he signed $9M. Of course it's steal now. But nobody can know it in that time. That's why he can want something similar.

Simply we'll see. Jarmo said he wants to stay here.

 

[majormajor]

I really hope it doesn't come to this, but if they can't get Laine into a reasonable price range soon, they might have to let him start talking to other clubs about an extension. I don't think he'll get the money anywhere else either, I'm guessing the market for him is crap. There is a reason Jarmo got Laine+ for PLD even under duress, teams are wary. It will hopefully just wake up Laine to the fact that he isn't hot shit and he'll sign here at a reasonable rate.

And if that doesn't work we can at least get a trade done. I don't want to be stuck trying to make a trade for an expiring asset this Fall.

This is all true but it isn't the full picture. This season was Forsberg's first of going P/GP and first over 35 goals. While 20-21 is Laine's responsibility, it's a clear outlier among his seasons. Forsberg is several years older. Forsberg has been a lot more average than Laine during his career, but also more consistent - in Forsberg defense, his career numbers would be probably higher if he had been playing somewhere else than NSH. Then again he just has a career year playing with Josi who was beasting.

Forsberg has no top10 goal finishes, Laine has two (2nd and 7th) though those were a long time ago, but he did them as a teenager. Laine has the clearly higher ceiling of the two, combine that with his age and previous contract and I would be surprised if his next deal was smaller than Forsberg's, if talking 8 years. If I got to pick one regardless of money, I'd still take Laine any day, maybe someone else would choose differently. In any case I still feel Forsberg is not a good comparable at all.

I think Laine's early career makes it impossible to sign him to a contract that will seem a great value at the moment of signing. I still think 5 years makes the most sense, it's a long term deal but should make it possible to find a compromise that brings his AAV somewhere around $8.5m. I don't know what Laine's camp is asking but I feel this the time to sign a longer deal and let your play on the ice for the next few years show it's a great value deal. 5 years would leave enough prime years after the contract to either chase the cup or sign one last big money deal.

Frankly if this thing drags on (not that it is doing so yet) I'll be a bit illogically pissed at both parties. At Jarmo for not paying the man and alienating players with contract negotiations and at Laine for asking unreasonable money while being up and down with his play and constantly injured and for not being where his mouth is (Oooh love the city & org, great locker room blah blah blah) and at myself for getting drawn into contract talks which I don't generally like and which tend to create unnecessary drama

Btw. I find it interesting I went on about how Forsberg is not a good comparable and then decide getting paid Forsberg money would be the right thing(tm). Albeit on shorter term.

TL;DR - $8.5m per, for 5 years. Done.

Sounds about right. Forsberg has the edge as a more consistent scorer than Laine, but with Laine we won't be purchasing a lot of years in his 30s. So it maybe balances out similarly. Laine has a lot of high end potential, but he is also always a drag on playdriving / possession. That balances out too.

Personally I have to say that I don't think it is appropriate to ignore Laine's bad months and bad years. Consistency is one of the things we are weighing in this contract.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I really hope it doesn't come to this, but if they can't get Laine into a reasonable price range soon, they might have to let him start talking to other clubs about an extension. I don't think he'll get the money anywhere else either, I'm guessing the market for him is crap. There is a reason Jarmo got Laine+ for PLD even under duress, teams are wary. It will hopefully just wake up Laine to the fact that he isn't hot shit and he'll sign here at a reasonable rate.

Or he’ll just accept his QO and walk right to UFA in a year

 

[majormajor]

Or he’ll just accept his QO and walk right to UFA in a year

Yeah he can do that in either scenario. That's up to him.

I hope he's promptly traded if he chooses to take the QO, otherwise we've got more drama creeping into next season.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Yeah he can do that in either scenario. That's up to him.

I hope he's promptly traded if he chooses to take the QO, otherwise we've got more drama creeping into next season.

I would agree, but he would immediately tank his trade value if he accepts his QO. Jackets can’t let that happen

 

[majormajor]

Jackets can’t let that happen

What are the tools at the team's disposal to prevent that from happening? I see nothing. It's Patty's choice if he wants to stay or not.

 

[VT]

Can I know his QO? I didn't see it.

To his 1PG. You know I very like Laine as a player. But we can't forget it was in 56 games.

 

[stevo61]

Can I know his QO? I didn't see it.

To his 1PG. You know I very like Laine as a player. But we can't forget it was in 56 games.

Not sure if there is some obscure rule with QOs I dont know about but I think it would just be the same as his last one so 7.5mil

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Can I know his QO? I didn't see it.

To his 1PG. You know I very like Laine as a player. But we can't forget it was in 56 games.

His QO is 7.5 million. He also has arbitration rights I think

 

[Xoggz22]

You all need to relax. Still no urgency to this aside from us fans. If he goes for arbitration then it's a little concerning. Otherwise, it's a business and both are working their cases. This was never going to be quick regardless of all the love both have said for each side. This is a big deal. As I said before, both need to get it right.

 

[VT]

His QO is 7.5 million. He also has arbitration rights I think

It was after the 2020/21 season. But QO can be more money and years.

EDIT. I was wrong.