Player Discussion: Patrik Laine IVever: a new hope? (Laine out of PAP, trade request still stands)

[Halberdier]

His QO is 7.5 million. He also has arbitration rights I think

When the QO is 7.5 and he has arbitration rights and his last season was excellent and had 1.00 PPG on a team where the second best had 0.78 PPG, I really don't see how he would settle with 8.5*8.

He could get 8.5*2 from arbitration, so get real, people.

FF is terrible comparable for Laine, as FF is not only much older and already entered his prime, but FF never had star numbers until his last season that was completely out of charts. Huge season, but outlier. Laine on other hand has 2 outlier seasons (or half seasons) to the other way: late 18-19 and 20-21. Injury ridden seasons, but first with "FF normal production (bad for Laine)" and 20-21 with terrible production and on ice precense.

 

[Easternbull]

No trade or QO coming has ben zero noise regarding him being on the market.

Both sides want to reach a deal just ways apart on the number.

5 × Werenskis money will be signed before camp starts.

I dont get why it was ok to overpay your nr dman but ok to lowball your nr 1 forward?

 

[NotCommitted]

I dont get why it was ok to overpay your nr dman but ok to lowball your nr 1 forward?

First off, not sure who is lowballing Laine, we haven't really heard a number and most fans seem ready to sign him if it starts with an 8, which might not be enough but is far from an insult. But the Werenski situation was completely different.

If I recall correctly Dougie Hamilton, Darrel Nurse, Seth Jones and Adam Fox also signed 9m+ contracts around the time. Now Werenski is not a Norris winner but on that group of D-men he's pretty average imo. Not the worst, not the best. It was probably a bit of an overpay, but not that much really, maybe around 0.5-1mil per if you take into account it's only 6 years. But that was the market for #1 d-men more or less.

The team was also in a situation where they really had to stop the bleeding. If they failed to sign Werenski, suddenly they are in a situation where they have basically no stability anywhere, they had just recently lost PLD & Jones. Instead of trying for a some kind of retool job, they would be looking into a full rebuild and I'm not sure we'd even be talking about an upcoming Laine contract, or if Voracek would've come back etc.

Failing to sign Werenski really could've been the final straw. He's also CBJ drafted talent and basically became their franchise D-man with that contract. All things considered, it was pretty much a no-brainer signing to me.

Laine has been with the team two seasons and one of them was not pretty and while he was their no1 forward, he's not irreplaceable like a #1 D-man is. Also it was the first season where he proved he could be the man, in the past he was "just" a goal scorer playing behind someone else. If they fail to sign Laine, I bet most fans will be a bit disappointed, but figure out it was going to be a bad contract, shrug their shoulders and move on. Werenski failure could've been a lot bigger.

It sounds like they really want to sign Laine and have factored him into their plans, but they don't really NEED to, like was the case with Werenski.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

NC explained the details of the Zach/Patrik comparison but the simple truth is Zach has proven to be a more dependable top-level player and deserves to make more than Laine. In no way is his deal an overpay and if Patrik gets the same deal it will be.

 

[Viqsi]

NC explained the details of the Zach/Patrik comparison but the simple truth is Zach has proven to be a more dependable top-level player and deserves to make more than Laine. In no way is his deal an overpay and if Patrik gets the same deal it will be.

OTOH, if Last Season Streak Laine is the new normal, it wouldn't be. (But the odds of that seem to be highly debatable with damn near everyone here having their own guesstimate...)

 

[VT]

NC explained the details of the Zach/Patrik comparison but the simple truth is Zach has proven to be a more dependable top-level player and deserves to make more than Laine. In no way is his deal an overpay and if Patrik gets the same deal it will be.

But Zach's contract must be compared to Makar's, Fox's and similar young d-men contracts and not to Laine. And he's enough overpayed. On the second hand it's a question if Jarmo's wants Laine to overpay too. I mean at last a bit because much wouldn't be good.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

But Zach's contract must be compared to Makar's, Fox's and similar young d-men contracts and not to Laine. And he's enough overpayed. On the second hand it's a question if Jarmo's wants Laine to overpay too. I mean at last a bit because much wouldn't be good.

Zach’s contract can’t be compared to Fox or Makar. He’s on his third deal, the other two are on their second contracts. Totally different contract situations.

 

[VT]

Zach’s contract can’t be compared to Fox or Makar. He’s on his third deal, the other two are on their second contracts. Totally different contract situations.

Contracts are determined by play not by their numbers in it his case. Because at the time of the signing Fox and Makar were better than Zach, which they proved on the ice.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

Contracts are determined by play not by their numbers in it his case. Because at the time of the signing Fox and Makar were better than Zach, which they proved on the ice.

Maybe in a vaccuum

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Could it be that Filip Forsberg’s new contract with Nashville — eight years, $68 million, or $8.5 million per season on the salary cap — will help move along the Blue Jackets talks with restricted free agent Patrik Laine? Talks between the club and Laine’s agent, Andy Scott, remain amicable, and they seem to agree that a five- or six-year term is appropriate. It’s the annual salary that’s been the sticking point. Forsberg (566 games) is three years older and has spent three more years in the league than Laine (407 games), but their production is pretty similar. Forsberg has averaged .83 points and .39 goals per game throughout his career. Laine’s numbers are .80 and .43. Let’s do six years, $51 million and get on with the offseason.

Blue Jackets Sunday Gathering: Strength of prospects now rests on blue line

The Blue Jackets' decision to spend the No. 6 and No. 12 picks on defensemen has radically altered the organization's pipeline.

theathletic.com

 

[BB88]

Contracts are determined by play not by their numbers in it his case. Because at the time of the signing Fox and Makar were better than Zach, which they proved on the ice.

It used to matter before Dubas went on some crazy mode.

There was a difference between RFA deals and UFA deals, now it’s the same.

Edit,
I’d go for term with Laine.

This team isn’t set to be in it’s win now window for now, the window will open (hopefully) in 2-3 years time and I’d rather have Laine still well on a longterm deal so I wouldn’t have to worry about that piece for a long time & not having to think about his expiring contract once the kids are starting to get paid.

With Sillinger, Johnson, Jiricek, Ceuleman, Mateychuk all being 18-19 and Laine& Werenski 25& under Jarmo has a chance to build a very long window

 

[Viqsi]

With Sillinger, Johnson, Jiricek, Ceuleman, Mateychuk all being 18-19 and Laine& Werenski 25& under this team Jarmo has a chance to build a very long window

This. This is what I want so very very badly.

 

[Columbus Jack]

NC explained the details of the Zach/Patrik comparison but the simple truth is Zach has proven to be a more dependable top-level player and deserves to make more than Laine. In no way is his deal an overpay and if Patrik gets the same deal it will be.

I disagree.

Laine drove this team offensively and was easily the most feared player for opposing teams. Werenski is good but he's certainly not that. Of course part of that is because Zach is a dman.

If you pay Laine Werenski money and he builds off the season he just had, he is easily worth it. People forget he is 23 years old and has already scored 40 multiple times. That's incredibly rare. For me, he is easily the most talented player on the roster.

Now if he doesn't build off the previous season, which I doubt considering he's 23 and not even near his prime, you have an overpaid 30 goal scorer who doesn't drive the play enough.

I'm going to bet on Laine improving his overall game, (we've already seen signs of it), and with the improving roster around him, I imagine 40 goals a year being a pretty consistent thing.

The team is getting better, Laine will improve. Pay the man and build around him, Columbus needs talent.

 

[cslebn]

When the QO is 7.5 and he has arbitration rights and his last season was excellent and had 1.00 PPG on a team where the second best had 0.78 PPG, I really don't see how he would settle with 8.5*8.

He could get 8.5*2 from arbitration, so get real, people.

FF is terrible comparable for Laine, as FF is not only much older and already entered his prime, but FF never had star numbers until his last season that was completely out of charts. Huge season, but outlier. Laine on other hand has 2 outlier seasons (or half seasons) to the other way: late 18-19 and 20-21. Injury ridden seasons, but first with "FF normal production (bad for Laine)" and 20-21 with terrible production and on ice precense.

Would you prefer Kyle Connor as a comparable? Or perhaps Jake Geuntzel? Debrincat might work but he hasn't signed his payday yet either.

 

[VT]

I have a question. For example, a player would accept QO. Could Jarmo still continue talk with him about a new contract in the pre-season, or only in the next season?

 

[BB88]

I have a question. For example, a player would accept QO. Could Jarmo still continue talk with him about a new contract in the pre-season, or only in the next season?

I believe you can’t start negotiation a new contract the same off season.

It would be later in the season if I remember right

 

[VT]

Would you prefer Kyle Connor as a comparable? Or perhaps Jake Geuntzel? Debrincat might work but he hasn't signed his payday yet either.

Jake Guentzel plays in the line with Crosby. How stats would he have without him? Bad example. Kyle Connor signed his contract in 2019 years, similar like Marner. I'm sure if he signs a season later, his salary would be higher. Btw, Skinner signed with Bufallo in 2019 too.

 

[Halberdier]

Would you prefer Kyle Connor as a comparable? Or perhaps Jake Geuntzel? Debrincat might work but he hasn't signed his payday yet either.

If Kyle Connor signed his contract today, why not.

But Connor signed his 7*7.14M contract after 5 (in 20), 57 (in 76) and 66 (in 82) point seasons, so not really comparable.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I have a question. For example, a player would accept QO. Could Jarmo still continue talk with him about a new contract in the pre-season, or only in the next season?

I believe so but he would hold all the cards

 

[Viqsi]

Jake Guentzel plays in the line with Crosby. How stats would he have without him?

About the same, because he's frequently had to go without due to Crosby's injuries and still manages to ruin our day every time we play 'em. He's 100% legit and we should all hate him for it.

 

[domi28]

I disagree.

Laine drove this team offensively and was easily the most feared player for opposing teams. Werenski is good but he's certainly not that. Of course part of that is because Zach is a dman.

If you pay Laine Werenski money and he builds off the season he just had, he is easily worth it. People forget he is 23 years old and has already scored 40 multiple times. That's incredibly rare. For me, he is easily the most talented player on the roster.

Now if he doesn't build off the previous season, which I doubt considering he's 23 and not even near his prime, you have an overpaid 30 goal scorer who doesn't drive the play enough.

I'm going to bet on Laine improving his overall game, (we've already seen signs of it), and with the improving roster around him, I imagine 40 goals a year being a pretty consistent thing.

The team is getting better, Laine will improve. Pay the man and build around him, Columbus needs talent.

Laine has scored 40+ goals exactly once and it was four seasons ago. Since then he has scored 30, 28, 12, and 26 goals. That's not elite and if he hasn't hit his prime yet when does he plan on getting there? He's been in the league six years now. The chance of him becoming something he hasn't shown yet is very slim. If you pay him Werenski money you're making him the 11th highest paid forward in the league. I doubt there's too many GMs that would put Laine on a top20 list of NHL forwards, let alone 11th.

I have no problem paying Laine $8m a year, maybe even $8.5m if that's what it takes to keep him here. But anything more than that is an overpay. And for the PPG people, 44 players this past season scored at a PPG rate. It's not a thing that shows an elite player nor is it justification for a $9m+ AAV contract.

 

[MAHJ71]

About the same, because he's frequently had to go without due to Crosby's injuries and still manages to ruin our day every time we play 'em. He's 100% legit and we should all hate him for it.

Agreed. And he came close to winning that Rangers series for the Penguins almost singlehandedly. Very noticeable when Crosby isn't playing.

 

[Marioesque]

If Laine can stay healthy for a full season, there's no reason why he can't put up 60 goals when PP works. That potential is worth a lot of money, more than 10 million, and most would expect him to be healthy enough to justify paying for it. I do get that it's scary because he hasn't had many full healthy seasons yet, but if he does play 82 in a season, he can seriously be a bargain even at 9-10 million. He is a winning player and that's what you pay for. He's also the most marketable asset, which sells jerseys and seats.

 

[DougKnowsBest]

Ok, so, what is laine’s trade value right now?

Let’s envision digging our heels in over a difference of .75 to 1 million dollars. Realistically what’s he worth as a trade?

 

[Columbus Jack]

Laine has scored 40+ goals exactly once and it was four seasons ago. Since then he has scored 30, 28, 12, and 26 goals. That's not elite and if he hasn't hit his prime yet when does he plan on getting there? He's been in the league six years now. The chance of him becoming something he hasn't shown yet is very slim. If you pay him Werenski money you're making him the 11th highest paid forward in the league. I doubt there's too many GMs that would put Laine on a top20 list of NHL forwards, let alone 11th.

I have no problem paying Laine $8m a year, maybe even $8.5m if that's what it takes to keep him here. But anything more than that is an overpay. And for the PPG people, 44 players this past season scored at a PPG rate. It's not a thing that shows an elite player nor is it justification for a $9m+ AAV contract.

Oh right, he missed 40 his rookie year by a whopping 4 goals.

What hockey player hits their prime at 23?

Did you even watch Laine last year? He was a PPG, while playing with Boone Jenner as his center. What talent did he have on his line feeding him pucks? His linemates last year weren't even close to the caliber of linemates that he had in WPG. The PPG is 100% "justifiable" when you play with subpar talent on a team where you are the opposition's main focus.

Let me ask, who is taking this team to the next level offensively if Laine goes? Elite talent is needed to win Cups. Laine is ELITE at scoring goals. His shot is arguably the best in the league and he rediscovered his scoring touch last year.

The play away from the puck has also improved dramatically, once again if you watched him last year the team was completely different when Laine was playing well. Which was more often than not, that's how you become a PPG player. Frustrating at times? Yes. Warts and all, he's the best player on the team.