Injury Report: Pacioretty ruptures his Achilles again - placed on season ending IR

[GIN ANTONIC]

Svech - Aho - Jarvis
TT - Koko - Necas
Kase - Staal - Fast

It doesn’t look as good without Patches in there but it should still be fine to be a solid team throughout the regular season and then we can amp up for the playoffs.

Do we need improvements from Koko and Necas? Yes. Jarvis will hopefully continue on a very solid rookie season and playoffs. We know what the other 3 in the top 6 can do.

PP1 and PP2 are going to have a bit of a different look which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. I think Jarvis can take Tro’s spot there and we run something like this.

Jarvis - Aho - TT
Svech - Burns

PP2 is where I think it’s gonna get a bit scrambly but I suppose it will be in limited time

 

[Svechhammer]

Svech - Aho - Jarvis
TT - Koko - Necas
Kase - Staal - Fast

It doesn’t look as good without Patches in there but it should still be fine to be a solid team throughout the regular season and then we can amp up for the playoffs.

Do we need improvements from Koko and Necas? Yes. Jarvis will hopefully continue on a very solid rookie season and playoffs. We know what the other 3 in the top 6 can do.

PP1 and PP2 are going to have a bit of a different look which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. I think Jarvis can take Tro’s spot there and we run something like this.

Jarvis - Aho - TT
Svech - Burns

PP2 is where I think it’s gonna get a bit scrambly but I suppose it will be in limited time

Yep

KK showed enough last year that when he was with the 2nd line he was more than capable, we just had Tro blocking him on the everyday lineup. I don't think we are going to struggle nearly as much as people think going from Tro to KK on that second line. The biggest need we have is getting more out of Necas. He's supposed to be our scorer on that line and without Patches that need is even bigger for him.

If we have to resort to playing Necas or Jarvis at 2C this year, we're probably in as bad a state as the Isles we're last year. That's not a move you make if you're trying to win a title, that's a desperate move you make when you're flailing.

We will do something like trading for JT Miller before we do that. Given we were already in on Tkachuk, you have to figure we aren't leaving any of those stones unturned now that Patches is out.

 

[spockBokk]

Yeah, realized I responded to the wrong person in that regard.

I agree another move is needed looking at the forward depth to start:

TT-Aho-Jarvis
Svech-Kotkaniemi-Necas
Fast-Staal-Kase
Martinook-Drury-Pederson

How did this team end up so RW heavy? I would say it makes a LW more likely, but I don't see a lot of LW options available (Stastny, Milano)

Stastny scored 21g last season and he is listed as a C/LW.

Milano scored 14g last yr as well.

Not so sure Stastny could keep up skating-wise, but he’s likely the best LW option out there barring a trade.

I like Rodrigues the best as a UFA plug, but to your point, he’s listed as a C/RW.

 

[Chrispy]

Stastny scored 21g last season and he is listed as a C/LW.

Milano scored 14g last yr as well.

Not so sure Stastny could keep up skating-wise, but he’s likely the best LW option out there barring a trade.

I like Rodrigues the best as a UFA plug, but to your point, he’s listed as a C/RW.

Bringing in Rodrigues would work with the Rod's practice of starting kids off on the wing. Move Drury over to 3LW with Staal and Fast or 4LW and put Martinook up there.

Not ideal, but as you said it gives more faceoff options.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

While true he was stapled to Staal on the 3rd line, he was still 3rd on the team in goal-scoring with 24. THAT's what will be hard to replace, you're not normally going to get goal-scoring like that from your 3rd line, that was more of a 2B line. KK can likely replace most of Tro, but now we have nothing really replacing Nino (unless we think Kase can stay healthy enough to do so)

Goals can come from different places. If Drury or Kase or whoever steps into Nino's slot and puts up 10-15 goals, we just need a few other guys to step up to help make up for the loss. With a lot of young guys capable of more that's not hard to see happening -- any of Jarvis, Necas, Svech, Kotkaniemi could increase their goal totals by quite a bit. And even if we do lose a handful of goals from last year I don't see it as being a big issue. Just need to make the playoffs, which I have no doubt we will easily. From there we should get Patches back, may also have another roster upgrade with his LTIR cap space, and anything can happen.

 

[spockBokk]

Here’s a good rundown (albeit from the WPG beat writer) of the leftover UFA forwards out there:



Sam Steel could be interesting as a reclamation project

 

[bleedgreen]

Trocheck was also bad at the PP. He brought little except a right handed draw.

Trocheck was #2 in PP TOI with 233 minutes but his 12 points sandwich between Aho's 28 points and Teravainen's 31 points.

Of the 82 NHL forwards that had over 200 PP minutes Trocheck was #77 of #82 with 3.08 PPP/60. This is playing with rank #5 (Teravainen), #15 (Aho), and #43 (Svechnikov).

I have some hope that Kotkaniemi will play the net front a lot stronger than Trocheck. He showed some hands around the crease last year.

Interesting use of stats. Trocheck was not remotely a bad power play player. Early on he was the bumper and the back door finisher but this past year we changed his role and left him floating out in the slot where we never used him. Aho and TT stopped looking for him and the pp just went in another direction. That’s a usage problem not a player skill issue. Koko doesn’t have the same skill but yes he has the size and strength to take abuse and bury rebounds. Your stats don’t reflect the change in usage. It was likely a reshaping of the pp from Dougie to Tony.

The previous season he was tied with Aho with 18 power play points. Team lead.

Im struggling to see that as “bad at the pp”.

 

[MadeUpName]

Interesting use of stats. Trocheck was not remotely a bad power play player. Early on he was the bumper and the back door finisher but this past year we changed his role and left him floating out in the slot where we never used him. Aho and TT stopped looking for him and the pp just went in another direction. That’s a usage problem not a player skill issue. Koko doesn’t have the same skill but yes he has the size and strength to take abuse and bury rebounds. Your stats don’t reflect the change in usage. It was likely a reshaping of the pp from Dougie to Tony.

The previous season he was tied with Aho with 18 power play points. Team lead.

Im struggling to see that as “bad at the pp”.

That is fair. It is more equitable to say that Trocheck added nothing last year to a PP1 that struggled increasingly as the year went on. He was, by a wide margin, the least productive player on Carolina's PP1 last year. His production was bad among all NHLers with PP1 minutes and also bad relative to his teammates. Carolina's Powerplay was not good down the stretch and Trocheck was the worst part.

Maybe that is because Aho and TT refused to pass to him in the slot. Maybe switching from Dougie to Tony made that role useless. Regardless, he added nothing but a right handed draw.

Personally I think Jarvis has a lot quicker hands plus better instincts which could do more damage in that slot role. I also think Kotkaniemi could be a lot more effective around the net in that role. I think Carolina only stands to gain on the PP1 by swapping Trocheck out.

 

[AD Skinner]

Time to sign Phil the Thrill.

My body is ready

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

My body is ready

Is his?

 

[Chrispy]

Is his?

As ready as it's ever been...

 

[chaz4hockey]

Svech - Aho - Jarvis
TT - Koko - Necas
Kase - Staal - Fast

It doesn’t look as good without Patches in there but it should still be fine to be a solid team throughout the regular season and then we can amp up for the playoffs.

Do we need improvements from Koko and Necas? Yes. Jarvis will hopefully continue on a very solid rookie season and playoffs. We know what the other 3 in the top 6 can do.

PP1 and PP2 are going to have a bit of a different look which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. I think Jarvis can take Tro’s spot there and we run something like this.

Jarvis - Aho - TT
Svech - Burns

PP2 is where I think it’s gonna get a bit scrambly but I suppose it will be in limited time

Only positive re: a Patches injury now is that as an older player he will be not be run down for the playoff run.

btw: I'm thinking we are around a 100 pt. or a little less team right now without reinforcements.

 

[bleedgreen]

That is fair. It is more equitable to say that Trocheck added nothing last year to a PP1 that struggled increasingly as the year went on. He was, by a wide margin, the least productive player on Carolina's PP1 last year. His production was bad among all NHLers with PP1 minutes and also bad relative to his teammates. Carolina's Powerplay was not good down the stretch and Trocheck was the worst part.

Maybe that is because Aho and TT refused to pass to him in the slot. Maybe switching from Dougie to Tony made that role useless. Regardless, he added nothing but a right handed draw.

Personally I think Jarvis has a lot quicker hands plus better instincts which could do more damage in that slot role. I also think Kotkaniemi could be a lot more effective around the net in that role. I think Carolina only stands to gain on the PP1 by swapping Trocheck out.

This is all irrelevant of course because we now have Burns, who is much more like Dougie but Trocheck is gone and can’t reclaim his previous position. The high slot role is useless for us in general unless it’s TT sliding the quick, short left board pass to Aho (or occasionally vise versa). Trochecks hands were fine, he was arguably the best pure shooter of our forwards with only Svech’s wrister and Aho’s growing arsenal as competition. TT and Aho rarely gave him the pass, unless it’s to each other they have a strong preference for cross ice passes on the pp. I doubt it was a refusal as much as a strong preference and Tro’s role was to clog things up to help them find a lane. He took one for the team. I’m sure they would’ve kept using him just fine on the back door where his hands are much better than Koko’s and more experienced than Jarvis.

Still, the past stats are irrelevant as we have changed the point man for a second year in a row. We will have a different approach based on however Burns works with them.

 

[NotOpie]

He was a 51 point player last season, at the dot is were he will be hard to replace.... I could easily see Necas/Jarvis winning #2C pending what moves we make....

While Tro was a 54.6% FO guy, Kotkaniemi wasn't horrible at 51.2%. The bigger issue is that Tro took those important right side draws.

While true he was stapled to Staal on the 3rd line, he was still 3rd on the team in goal-scoring with 24.

....and therein lies the rub. Not even so much that it's a 3rd liner putting up those goals (that Staal line basically was a second 2nd line), it's that we need to replace those goals. As a shorthand way of looking at this, we basically lost 55 goals (Tro, Nino, TDA) and 146 points. I believe Burns and TDA represent a wash. I could see Jarvis and Necas adding another 12-15 goals combined and maybe another 30 points. I'm optimistic about Kotkaniemi and think with 2nd line ice time he could replace Trocheck's scoring, so add another 8 goals and 21 points. We're still down 20-22 goals and 45 points (essentially 1 Nino Niederreiter). Consider that we also got a career offensive years from Skjei, Fast, and Slavin. Finally Derek Stepan added another 9 goals from the 4th line. There is reason to be nervous.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

Here’s a good rundown (albeit from the WPG beat writer) of the leftover UFA forwards out there:



Sam Steel could be interesting as a reclamation project

If we want someone who is going to score exactly 6 goals, Sam Steel should be our guy.

 

[StorminSnvechnAho]

While Tro was a 54.6% FO guy, Kotkaniemi wasn't horrible at 51.2%. The bigger issue is that Tro took those important right side draws.

....and therein lies the rub. Not even so much that it's a 3rd liner putting up those goals (that Staal line basically was a second 2nd line), it's that we need to replace those goals. As a shorthand way of looking at this, we basically lost 55 goals (Tro, Nino, TDA) and 146 points. I believe Burns and TDA represent a wash. I could see Jarvis and Necas adding another 12-15 goals combined and maybe another 30 points. I'm optimistic about Kotkaniemi and think with 2nd line ice time he could replace Trocheck's scoring, so add another 8 goals and 21 points. We're still down 20-22 goals and 45 points (essentially 1 Nino Niederreiter). Consider that we also got a career offensive years from Skjei, Fast, and Slavin. Finally Derek Stepan added another 9 goals from the 4th line. There is reason to be nervous.

They are gonna add another piece one way or another IMO. I think you are underselling how many goals Necas/Jarvis can add..... Necas I'm 50/50 on (covid and the two concussions in the last 1.5 years) but I can easily see Jarvis putting up 70pts and 30 goals this season....

 

[Chrispy]

They are gonna add another piece one way or another IMO. I think you are underselling how many goals Necas/Jarvis can add..... Necas I'm 50/50 on (covid and the two concussions in the last 1.5 years) but I can easily see Jarvis putting up 70pts and 30 goals this season....

That's a big jump. We've definitely seen some of these players slow down in their development for a season, most recently Necas.

Doesn't mean Necas will forever be at the point he is now or development won't continue for others, but I think we don't want to rely too heavily on Jarvis to make a leap in scoring just yet.

 

[StorminSnvechnAho]

That's a big jump. We've definitely seen some of these players slow down in their development for a season, most recently Necas.

Doesn't mean Necas will forever be at the point he is now or development won't continue for others, but I think we don't want to rely too heavily on Jarvis to make a leap in scoring just yet.

Necas had some injury issues and has always been more of a playmaker than a goal scorer.... Jarvis only played 68 games last season and humped his way up the line up and with minutes just extrapolating his PPM adjusted to a first line minutes puts him over 70. If he stays healthy I suspect he will, I could always be wrong I just don't see him as a regression candidate.... Guys insanely driven.

 

[CandyCanes]

 

[Chrispy]

I keep forgetting about Dzingel.

Not sure what that says about Dzingel. Or me for that matter.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

All I will say is that this is a MASSIVE opportunity for our young left-handed group to impress this pre-season. I'm watching you, Suzuki/Rees/Drury/+.

 

[HisIceness]

View attachment 576164

This is where KK, Necas, need to take that next step. If we can get 2021 Necas back and KK up to his 2nd line potential (as seems to be where he's slotted) then the wait for Patches shouldn't hurt too much. On another note, Nino would look good here right about now

 

[NotOpie]

They are gonna add another piece one way or another IMO. I think you are underselling how many goals Necas/Jarvis can add..... Necas I'm 50/50 on (covid and the two concussions in the last 1.5 years) but I can easily see Jarvis putting up 70pts and 30 goals this season....

My guess is you're looking at 50 - 55 points from Necas (20/30 or 20/35) and about 60 points from Jarvis (25/35).

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Jarvis is a good bet to soak up Trocheck's PP minutes. Add in that the coach trusted him to be in the Aho line rotation as a rookie in the playoffs, and the opportunity for him to put up big numbers is there.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

If we want someone who is going to score exactly 6 goals, Sam Steel should be our guy.

had to look it up, lol hard to believe he's scored exactly 6 goals in all 4 of his seasons, and with significantly different number of games played: 22, 65, 42, 68