I think you're underestimating the Cards offense quite a bit, even if they aren't both MVP finalists I'd highly expect Arenado and Goldie to hit around 30 HRs again. We lost Pujols but the DH will be a platoon of Yepez and Gorman who I'd expect quite a decent amount of offense from both. Molina/Kiz to Contreras is going to be a huge offensive difference. Carlson and O'Neill should have big chips on their shoulders after last year's injury issues. And if Walker is half as good as they are making him out to be he's going to be great as well.
Pitching is definitely an issue tho.
I may be undervaluing it a little but there are just too many problems with it. I have mentioned it in a post or two before, but we are way too right-hander dominant. We faced right handed starters something like 9% more often than the average major league team. That is a significant percentage. Other teams know what puts the brakes on our offense.
TON could bounce back but he could also just be what he is. He has had 1 good year and the rest of his career has been essentially what Grichuk was for us. Carlson is a complete black hole as a LH bat, which is where he will get most of his PA's. I think Walker is going to be great but I don't like to pin the hopes of our offense on a rookie hitting the ground sprinting and becoming our 3rd most dangerous bat.
I hope that Gorman can curb his SO%. There is definite upside with him in that regard but I'm not sold he is a premiere bat until that SO% goes down a bit.
Maybe I'm a little too doom and gloom but to me, its a lot of the same. I think our numbers will look fairly decent again throughout the regular season but we will absolutely murder LH pitching again and struggle against RH pitching. Unfortunately, RH pitching is a lot more prevalent and, come playoff time, most aces are RH (Verlander, Scherzer, Wheeler, Nola, Darvish, Strider, Musgrove, Buehler just in the NL alone).
My hope going into this year was that we would balance the lineup with an everyday LH bat to help Goldy and Arenado see less RH pitching. That never happened.