Confirmed with Link: Oilers sign Connor Brown to 1-year incentive laden deal ($775K caphit, potentially $3.25M in bonuses)

[guymez]

Guys, it's best to just forget it.

We want max cap this year. If we somehow have cap at the deadline, I want it spent. It's worth 4.7X more this year at the deadline than it will be next season.

Next season's cap issues can be dealt with then. This year we must win.

(not to mention: 1.9M comes off the cap from Neal next year + the cap is rising $3M++, plus if McLeod and Bouchard are 2 year bridges, we have zero cap concerns unless Broberg or Holloway both go crazy)

I'm pretty sure that Neal doesnt come off the cap until 2025-26.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

I haven't been watching brown but to me we may or may not be cheering for a 4mill 3rd liner to either play or not play a full season

 

[bucks_oil]

I'm pretty sure that Neal doesnt come off the cap until 2025-26.

Shoot... you are right. I'm so used to looking two years ahead for next off season, but they updated cap friendly a week or two ago to delete 2022/23.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

I don't see it this way at all. He only needs to play 10 games to get the full amount even if he has zero points. If he was "betting on himself", the bonus' would have a much harder trigger point either tied to results or at least a higher number of games played.

With a 10 game bonus this is as close to a guaranteed contract as they were likely legally able to as I doubt the trigger could have been 1 game.

He has a bad year next to those two and his next contract will be in the Yamamoto range. He will have given up millions to sign here.

I suppose if one doesn't believe the reports that he was offered long term deals elsewhere, but most of those in the know are sure he did.

 

[bone]

He has a bad year next to those two and his next contract will be in the Yamamoto range. He will have given up millions to sign here.

I suppose if one doesn't believe the reports that he was offered long term deals elsewhere, but most of those in the know are sure he did.

I don't believe for a second any of the multi year contracts were more than 2 or 3 seasons at more than his prior cap hit, when he's coming off a 3 year $3.6M contract where he played 4 games in his last year. Particularly when the prior 2 seasons, while quite good weren't blowing the doors off the seasons that he earned that contract.

So really it's likely $7M over 2 or $10M over 3 was the maximum potential he could have got, but a good season here likely turns the 3 year total into $15M or more over those same 3 years with likely more to follow with the cap jump we'll be seeing over the next three years.

His worst case is just taking the $4M and running and he only needs to be good enough to earn a $3M/year contract over the next two to recoup his potential earnings.

Considering he already has $18M career earnings, that not really a big gamble for a professional athlete that should always be confident in their abilities.

Assuming your Yamamoto comparison, we're seeing a guy looking at gambling that his career earnings three years from now would be $25M vs. $28M if it doesn't go well, vs potentially being at $33 M career earnings at the same point and locked in for more years to come. Throw in the McDavid factor and likely a personal desire to give this a try and this wasn't some major gamble.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

I don't believe for a second any of the multi year contracts were more than 2 or 3 seasons at more than his prior cap hit, when he's coming off a 3 year $3.6M contract where he played 4 games in his last year. Particularly when the prior 2 seasons, while quite good weren't blowing the doors off the seasons that he earned that contract.

So really it's likely $7M over 2 or $10M over 3 was the maximum potential he could have got, but a good season here likely turns the 3 year total into $15M or more over those same 3 years with likely more to follow with the cap jump we'll be seeing over the next three years.

His worst case is just taking the $4M and running and he only needs to be good enough to earn a $3M/year contract over the next two to recoup his potential earnings.

Considering he already has $18M career earnings, that not really a big gamble for a professional athlete that should always be confident in their abilities.

Assuming your Yamamoto comparison, we're seeing a guy looking at gambling that his career earnings three years from now would be $25M vs. $28M if it doesn't go well, vs potentially being at $33 M career earnings at the same point and locked in for more years to come. Throw in the McDavid factor and likely a personal desire to give this a try and this wasn't some major gamble.

As I said, it depends on what one believes to be true.

 

[duul]

Every morning I wake up and re-evaluate this deal while drinking coffee. It gets worse each day.

McDavid put up 150 with Hyman. Destroyed the league in points. Draisaitl put up 130 with Yamamoto or whoever else when he played. Fact of the matter is that putting up goals is this teams area of expertise. What happens when Brown comes in? Who benefits? Does McDavid put up 160? Does Draisaitl put up 140? What's the difference exactly? We're outscoring our problems already, and the solution is what here? The more I think about it, the less sense this trade makes.

We are at the point where we MUST rely on a young winger coming in to take Yamamoto's spot, not spending 4 million on a guy who will fill it to a point of making a minor to mediocre difference in the large scale. Holland has decided that we are going to solve the issue we had of having to outscore the opposition by ... replacing Yamo with Brown in hopes to ... outscore the opposition. This was a senseless idea.

The fact we did not use that cap space and make deals to upgrade the D will be seen as the colossal failure when the season starts up and we see what we've spent 4 million on, what we lost Kostin for essentially. There were ways to keep Kostin instead, a guy who would have loved to be here long term. There is 0% chance we have Connor Brown on our team next year. Feels like Detroit swindled us. We could have got rid of Yamo by adding a pick.

Four million dollars for one year of this f***ing guy.

 

[Hockeysawks]

I haven't been watching brown but to me we may or may not be cheering for a 4mill 3rd liner to either play or not play a full season

His last two seasons in Ottawa he paced out at 50 points playing with Nick Paul and being a fantastic penalty killer creating many many short handed chances. He is a legit second line player
If he plays like that he will be the best UFA signing of the summer. It sounds funny but his biggest flaw and the cause of his injuries is that he plays too hard. I Hope he can return to form because anyone trash talking him or being worried will feel foolish

 

[nabob]

Every morning I wake up and re-evaluate this deal while drinking coffee. It gets worse each day.

McDavid put up 150 with Hyman. Destroyed the league in points. Draisaitl put up 130 with Yamamoto or whoever else when he played. Fact of the matter is that putting up goals is this teams area of expertise. What happens when Brown comes in? Who benefits? Does McDavid put up 160? Does Draisaitl put up 140? What's the difference exactly? We're outscoring our problems already, and the solution is what here? The more I think about it, the less sense this trade makes.

We are at the point where we MUST rely on a young winger coming in to take Yamamoto's spot, not spending 4 million on a guy who will fill it to a point of making a minor to mediocre difference in the large scale. Holland has decided that we are going to solve the issue we had of having to outscore the opposition by ... replacing Yamo with Brown in hopes to ... outscore the opposition. This was a senseless idea.

The fact we did not use that cap space and make deals to upgrade the D will be seen as the colossal failure when the season starts up and we see what we've spent 4 million on, what we lost Kostin for essentially. There were ways to keep Kostin instead, a guy who would have loved to be here long term. There is 0% chance we have Connor Brown on our team next year. Feels like Detroit swindled us. We could have got rid of Yamo by adding a pick.

Four million dollars for one year of this f***ing guy.

What large upgrade to D was to be made for $750,000 against this seasons cap?

 

[duul]

What large upgrade to D was to be made for $750,000 against this seasons cap?

What a horribly disingenuous comparison to make knowing the context, alternatives, ways around the cap including trades and buyouts and demotions etc.

Obviously there is no large upgrade to be made at D for 750k. That's not the point. The point is that Holland is incapable of doing something to improve the team by a substantial amount after the horrible situation he has put us in, because he is incapable of doing what is needed.

Either you're trolling or oblivious, especially when we look around the league at cap circumvention techniques, legit and borderline, including trades, that allow teams with minimal cap space to make deals to get good players.

Like, I don't know, packaging players of higher salary along with draft picks and prospects to acquire better players? The argument you're making is of the most face value, simplistic mode. I wonder if this is how Holland thinks too. Guhhhh we only got 750k...guess we should sign Connor Brown for 4 million!

 

[Fourier]

What a horribly disingenuous comparison to make knowing the context, alternatives, ways around the cap including trades and buyouts and demotions etc.

Obviously there is no large upgrade to be made at D for 750k. That's not the point. The point is that Holland is incapable of doing something to improve the team by a substantial amount after the horrible situation he has put us in, because he is incapable of doing what is needed.

Either you're trolling or oblivious, especially when we look around the league at cap circumvention techniques, legit and borderline, including trades, that allow teams with minimal cap space to make deals to get good players.

Like, I don't know, packaging players of higher salary along with draft picks and prospects to acquire better players? The argument you're making is of the most face value, simplistic mode. I wonder if this is how Holland thinks too. Guhhhh we only got 750k...guess we should sign Connor Brown for 4 million!

If you look at my post history I am always trying to come up with schemes to work around the cap. But I will say that I am about 98% convinced that this off season was not the time to make a big move. The two RHD that are obviously available are Pesce and Karlsson. I like both players but of teh two Pesce would clearly be the guy who you could more easily fit in. The problem is that Carolina does not want futures for him, they want a top end forward. Out here the talk has been Nylander for Pesce more or less straight up. People on this board have been talking about a 1st and Ceci sort of deal but I am now convinced that that is not even close to enough.

It would have to be a three way deal. A team like Philly has Konecny who I think would fit Carolina well. My guess is that Philly would want at least Broberg/Holloway and a 1st and perhaps a bit more. If this was the cost for a signed Pesce maybe you think about it. But I am quite dubious that Pesce would even approve a trade to Edmonton let alone commit long term. You can't pay that much for one year when you have so few really valuable assets.

Karlsson would be even harder to make work unless they were willing to either retain a lot more than they have to date or were willing to take Campbell.

Beyond that it seems that half the team out there are looking for a good RHD. IN addition to the Leafs, Pittsburgh is even in the market as is Nashville. Ottawa is also looking. Right now I think the Oilers better shot is at the TDL where players unexpectedly become available.

 

[GMofOilers]

What a player this guy is going to be this year for us. There’s a reason the best player in the world made him sign here.

What a GM Holland is. We haven’t ever had a GM like this before, enjoy folks!

 

[duul]

If you look at my post history I am always trying to come up with schemes to work around the cap. But I will say that I am about 98% convinced that this off season was not the time to make a big move. The two RHD that are obviously available are Pesce and Karlsson. I like both players but of teh two Pesce would clearly be the guy who you could more easily fit in. The problem is that Carolina does not want futures for him, they want a top end forward. Out here the talk has been Nylander for Pesce more or less straight up. People on this board have been talking about a 1st and Ceci sort of deal but I am now convinced that that is not even close to enough.

It would have to be a three way deal. A team like Philly has Konecny who I think would fit Carolina well. My guess is that Philly would want at least Broberg/Holloway and a 1st and perhaps a bit more. If this was the cost for a signed Pesce maybe you think about it. But I am quite dubious that Pesce would even approve a trade to Edmonton let alone commit long term. You can't pay that much for one year when you have so few really valuable assets.

Karlsson would be even harder to make work unless they were willing to either retain a lot more than they have to date or were willing to take Campbell.

Beyond that it seems that half the team out there are looking for a good RHD. IN addition to the Leafs, Pittsburgh is even in the market as is Nashville. Ottawa is also looking. Right now I think the Oilers better shot is at the TDL where players unexpectedly become available.

That's fair, and I would tend to agree.

So why not go all in next year? Signing Brown completely stops us from adding a significant player next year. Whatever we can add next year is hampered. We both know there is 0% chance of Holland saving cap space this year, it's his last. The dream of reducing it to 1-2mil penalty into next year is a fever dream.

What other bonuses do we have to worry about besides the 3.25 from Brown?

I can not believe that when you are looking at Draisaitl's last year, the choice was made to cripple us and stop us from adding one significant piece next year in order to get Brown for this year and this year alone. Seems horrendous.

And yea, do you mind filling me in on what other bonuses we need to be thinking about into next year? Will it be the 3.25 only?

 

[harpoon]

A team like Philly has Konecny who I think would fit Carolina well. My guess is that Philly would want at least Broberg/Holloway and a 1st and perhaps a bit more.

Not so sure about that. Philly is one team that seems to have a management group dumber than the one running the Oilers. Didn’t they just trade Kevin Hayes (a guy who seems like a Brown tier player imo) for a sixth round pick AND retain 50% of his $7 million cap for the next three seasons? Seems like one of the worst trades of the off-season to me.

 

[duul]

Not so sure about that. Philly is one team that seems to have a management group dumber than the one running the Oilers. Didn’t they just trade Kevin Hayes (a guy who seems like a Brown tier player imo) for a sixth round pick AND retain 50% of his $7 million cap for the next three seasons? Seems like one of the worst trades of the off-season to me.

Hayes is a better player than Brown and costs less. Really makes you think. Well, I got banned from posting in that last thread for comparing the Brown 4 million to the other deals signed -- it was the worst one by far from a playoff calibre team. We can look at Chicago and Detroit spending to get to the cap etc, but in terms of the truly competitive teams, Brown is the worst contract of them all.

 

[harpoon]

Hayes is a better player than Brown and costs less. Really makes you think. Well, I got banned from posting in that last thread for comparing the Brown 4 million to the other deals signed -- it was the worst one by far from a playoff calibre team. We can look at Chicago and Detroit spending to get to the cap etc, but in terms of the truly competitive teams, Brown is the worst contract of them all.

It does make you wonder. There must be a reason why the Flyers were willing to eat $3.5 for the next three seasons and get basically nothing in return. I see his shooting % fell down a hole almost immediately when he went to Philly. Did Holland not get a call, or does he just not like the player?

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

It does make you wonder. There must be a reason why the Flyers were willing to eat $3.5 for the next three seasons and get basically nothing in return. I see his shooting % fell down a hole almost immediately when he went to Philly. Did Holland not get a call, or does he just not like the player?

For what's it's worth, Hayes had a no-trade-clause. That might be a limiting factor for this team.

 

[MessierII]

Hayes is a better player than Brown and costs less. Really makes you think. Well, I got banned from posting in that last thread for comparing the Brown 4 million to the other deals signed -- it was the worst one by far from a playoff calibre team. We can look at Chicago and Detroit spending to get to the cap etc, but in terms of the truly competitive teams, Brown is the worst contract of them all.

He doesn’t cost less though. He’s more than brown this year. Less next year if we keep brown but that’s not set in stone.

 

[duul]

He doesn’t cost less though. He’s more than brown this year. Less next year if we keep brown but that’s not set in stone.

I don't think you have any idea how this all works young man.

 

[Fourier]

Hayes is a better player than Brown and costs less. Really makes you think. Well, I got banned from posting in that last thread for comparing the Brown 4 million to the other deals signed -- it was the worst one by far from a playoff calibre team. We can look at Chicago and Detroit spending to get to the cap etc, but in terms of the truly competitive teams, Brown is the worst contract of them all.

Hayes and Brown could not be more different. At his very best I would say that Hayes is definitely the more talented player. But his problem has always been that he is very seldom at his best. He takes long periods where he seems to coast and is about as inconsistent as you will find. He is a big guy but he often plays small.

Hayes was a healthy scratch on multiple occasions in Philly because of how he played eve though he was producing. They wanted out of his deal and even eating 50% they still saved over $8M in real money. Hayes also had a NTC that limited the options Philly had to move him.

Brown is exactly the opposite. He gives you 100% pretty much all the time and while a lot smaller than Hayes he is much more engaged. There is a reason that the Brown signing is being pretty much universally praised in hockey circles. He is the type of player teams really want.

It does make you wonder. There must be a reason why the Flyers were willing to eat $3.5 for the next three seasons and get basically nothing in return. I see his shooting % fell down a hole almost immediately when he went to Philly. Did Holland not get a call, or does he just not like the player?

Hayes was a healthy scratch on multiple occasions. He is extremely inconsistent. Absolutely not the guy you want to add to the Oilers especially since they would not have the cap space to do so.

 

[Fourier]

That's fair, and I would tend to agree.

So why not go all in next year? Signing Brown completely stops us from adding a significant player next year. Whatever we can add next year is hampered. We both know there is 0% chance of Holland saving cap space this year, it's his last. The dream of reducing it to 1-2mil penalty into next year is a fever dream.

What other bonuses do we have to worry about besides the 3.25 from Brown?

I can not believe that when you are looking at Draisaitl's last year, the choice was made to cripple us and stop us from adding one significant piece next year in order to get Brown for this year and this year alone. Seems horrendous.

And yea, do you mind filling me in on what other bonuses we need to be thinking about into next year? Will it be the 3.25 only?

The only other performance bonuses are for Broberg and Holloway. They total a little under $1.5M. But is is very unlikely that either player hits any substantial part of these bonuses. To do so Holloway would have to firmly establish himself as a top six forward and would probably have to hit 50+ points. Broberg would need to be one of the Oilers top 3 defensemen. And even if both managed those feats you would still be looking at under $500K most likely. So realistically you could expect from $0-200K from these two.

I have already explained why this contract will not prevent the Oilers from upgrading next year. Assuming the same roster minus say Foegele, they will have $3-4M to spend to upgrade. Add that to the Ceci deal and you could get a $7M defenseman. Now if they re-sign Brown then they will have less of course. But there will be other moves that could free up enough money for a much better defenseman.

 

[MessierII]

I don't think you have any idea how this all works young man.

I do. He’s going to count in the 1’s against the cap this year. Yes it’s dead cap next year but there’s no getting Hayes in the 1’s this year.

 

[FlameChampion]

Same here and I said numerous times that his numbers were deceiving because, one, he brought a lot more than just scoring and, two, his career highs were over shortened seasons so pro-rated, he was more of a 30 goal, 60 point player but some people were so hung up on "he's only a 20 point, 40 player so you're not getting a top 6 guy" stuff.

Regardless, Brown is another one of those guys who is very heavy on intangibles and I'd actually say that he's better defensively than Hyman at even strength but not as well rounded offensively. In terms of work ethic, he and Hyman both play like a dog on a bone, the forecheck will be ferocious with both of them and make the Oilers that much tougher to play against.

Seems like Brown and Hyman are quite similar.

Hyman is more of a skilled net presence guy with some tunnel issue problems.

Brown is a more cerebral guy whos better at playmaking and defending.

 

[harpoon]

Hayes was a healthy scratch on multiple occasions. He is extremely inconsistent. Absolutely not the guy you want to add to the Oilers especially since they would not have the cap space to do so.

Whatever. I don’t know enough about the ins and outs in Philly to discuss why Hayes fell out of favor. Your idea on the player may be correct. The shooting % drop off I mentioned has to be at least part of the picture though. And even at that he did still put up 18 goals and over 50 points last season. Jimmi points out that he had a NTC, so that’s obviously a factor I didn’t know and hadn’t considered. Still, imagine this board if Holland did a trade like that eating that much cap space and accepting a sixth in return.

Anyway, the only reason I brought it up is because Philly is a basket case organization that’s been spinning wheels now for several seasons. Perfect team to try to pawn off some of our lesser players on.

 

[FlameChampion]

Pretty sure bonuses arent paid until the end of the year.

Its cap remaining - bonuses = overage applied to next years cap.

So in theory if Edmonton accrues cap and has 2M remaining it would be 2M - 3.25M = 1.25M overage to next year.

Thats interesting, I didnt know that it was cap remaining - bonuses = overage.