Confirmed with Link: Oilers sign Connor Brown to 1-year incentive laden deal ($775K caphit, potentially $3.25M in bonuses)

[CupofOil]

If he's in the top 6 all year 55-60 points should be a minimum for a successful season IMO.

I doubt it. Brown isn't going to much if any top unit PP time, he's mostly been an even strength producer in his career, so I think 20 goals, 30 assists should be a reasonable expectation with stronger 2 way play than we've gotten from others in that role (Yamamoto, Puljujarvi etc.)

 

[GOilers88]

If you look at my post history I am always trying to come up with schemes to work around the cap. But I will say that I am about 98% convinced that this off season was not the time to make a big move. The two RHD that are obviously available are Pesce and Karlsson. I like both players but of teh two Pesce would clearly be the guy who you could more easily fit in. The problem is that Carolina does not want futures for him, they want a top end forward. Out here the talk has been Nylander for Pesce more or less straight up. People on this board have been talking about a 1st and Ceci sort of deal but I am now convinced that that is not even close to enough.

It would have to be a three way deal. A team like Philly has Konecny who I think would fit Carolina well. My guess is that Philly would want at least Broberg/Holloway and a 1st and perhaps a bit more. If this was the cost for a signed Pesce maybe you think about it. But I am quite dubious that Pesce would even approve a trade to Edmonton let alone commit long term. You can't pay that much for one year when you have so few really valuable assets.

Karlsson would be even harder to make work unless they were willing to either retain a lot more than they have to date or were willing to take Campbell.

Beyond that it seems that half the team out there are looking for a good RHD. IN addition to the Leafs, Pittsburgh is even in the market as is Nashville. Ottawa is also looking. Right now I think the Oilers better shot is at the TDL where players unexpectedly become available.

Ceci + 1st for Pesce is in the same wheelhouse as Anaheim flipping Gibson straight up for Campbell.

People want supremely unrealistic trades to just manifest without a real thought to the other team, then get mad that Holland is shit because he didn't make them happen.

 

[McDoused]

Ceci + 1st for Pesce is in the same wheelhouse as Anaheim flipping Gibson straight up for Campbell.

People want supremely unrealistic trades to just manifest without a real thought to the other team, then get mad that Holland is shit because he didn't make them happen.

Holland is stupid for not acquiring a guy that has us on his no trade list. What an idiot!

 

[Bryanbryoil]

You have to take into account that he is actually at $.755M this year. He's not really replacing Yamamoto. They could not afford Yamamoto at $3.1M this year. He is replacing the guy who you were signing for $.775M otherwise. Yamamoto's money will be spent on Bouchard.

For the $.775-1M you could afford you are getting a true 4th liner. I know you like MacEwan for example. What aspect of Brown's game could he replace. Would he get 50 points playing with McDavid or Leon. Is he very good defensively. Could he be on your #1pk unit? This is what you have to ask when assessing Brown vs the alternative.

I'll say this again, he's not sewering the cap next year. They should still have money to spend to improve the team.

He is replacing Yamamoto in terms of his role on the team and barring a catastrophic injury or the season being canceled he will be a $4 million player and we will have to pay the piper next season. .

 

[Fourier]

He is replacing Yamamoto in terms of his role on the team and barring a catastrophic injury or the season being canceled he will be a $4 million player and we will have to pay the piper next season. .

I understand that. But the alternative is to go with a guy making $.775M this year. You will either be better this year or next year. But not both. At least not with the money for Brown. But there could well still be money to improve next year even with the carry over.

I was hoping the bonus would be less. But it is a good use of the cap to make this year's team better. Next year there are other things that could be done. But this team needs to try to ice the best possible team every year. Not wait until the future. And Brown is by far the best forward they could get for anything under $2M in cap space this year.

 

[Tw0Shoes]

He is replacing Yamamoto in terms of his role on the team and barring a catastrophic injury or the season being canceled he will be a $4 million player and we will have to pay the piper next season. .

Is it really pay the piper? over half his bonus is met just by the money coming off for the james neal buy ouy.

 

[Spawn]

Is it really pay the piper? over half his bonus is met just by the money coming off for the james neal buy ouy.

James Neal buy out extends into the season beyond.

 

[duul]

Is it really pay the piper? over half his bonus is met just by the money coming off for the james neal buy ouy.

Why does that matter at all?

People are using the excuse of money coming off our cap for it being ok to spend 4 million on this player. 3.25 next year when he's not even playing for our team.

Imagine how much better it would be to go into next year with buyout stuff coming off, the cap going up, AND us not being anchored down by 3.25 mil in wasted space? Imagine what we could do with all that space.

The cap going up and things coming off the books is not an excuse for this. They are two separate issues. Doing stuff like this is the reason why we don't have any space to begin with.

 

[Spawn]

I understand that. But the alternative is to go with a guy making $.775M this year. You will either be better this year or next year. But not both. At least not with the money for Brown. But there could well still be money to improve next year even with the carry over.

This is only really true if you view the rest of the roster as set in stone to what it is now and that no other moves could have been made prior to signing Brown.

 

[Fourier]

This is only really true if you view the rest of the roster as set in stone to what it is now and that no other moves could have been made prior to signing Brown.

There are realistically 4 players on the roster that you can move to find cap space to improve the roster: Foegele, Ceci, Kulak and Campbell.

If the goal was to upgrade Ceci, moving Ceci by himself does you no good because it will be very costly to upgrade his spot. To do so you would probably have to move one or both of Kulak or Foegele as well. But Brown's signing does not stop you from doing this. In fact, it makes it easier because you don't have to now find money to replace a top six RW at the same time.

If the goal is to find a better winger than Brown, then you have to start by moving Foegele. That won't do it because all you now have is $2.75M plus the $.775M from Brown for two wingers. $3.6M total for two wingers doesn't improve on Brown and Foegele. So you also move Kulak and go with Broberg and Niemo or sign a guy at $1M or less. Now you have $5.2M to upgrade on Brown and Foegele if you want better wingers but you still loose Kulak. $5.2M would be a challenge to find two guys who as a duo would be better than Brown and Foegele and compensate for the loss on the back end.

What this shows me is that with the cap space they have in hand the only way you could find the cap space to clearly upgrade he team this year over what it is with Brown would be to find it by trading or buying out Campbell in addition to moving out one or more of the above 4. But even then the answer is probably not from free agency so you also need assets in addition to make a trade.

I've spent a lot more time than I should trying to come up with some sort of realistic way that the team could have been made better this year than they have been with the Brown signing and I just can't find it without completely mortgaging the future. Maybe that's just my own lack of imagination. So if others have a plan I'd be happy to hear it.

 

[GOilers88]

"Every year needs to be an all in year because of McDrai!"

"Not like that, what about the year after!?!?"

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I understand that. But the alternative is to go with a guy making $.775M this year. You will either be better this year or next year. But not both. At least not with the money for Brown. But there could well still be money to improve next year even with the carry over.

I was hoping the bonus would be less. But it is a good use of the cap to make this year's team better. Next year there are other things that could be done. But this team needs to try to ice the best possible team every year. Not wait until the future. And Brown is by far the best forward they could get for anything under $2M in cap space this year.

It is IMO going all in this season and then handicapping us next season. Unless we are moving out other players to free up cap this season have we really improved much at all as a team? We are still relying heavily on younger guys to fill out the roster. That will be fine as long as they come to play this year and Woodcroft gives them space to grow. I see our window as a 2 year one, unless Drai has made his intentions known that he wants out then we are down to a 1 year window basically.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

"Every year needs to be an all in year because of McDrai!"

"Not like that, what about the year after!?!?"

We have 2 guaranteed years of McDrai, we are already making it harder to win in year 2 with this move.

 

[syz]

The cap going up and things coming off the books is not an excuse for this. They are two separate issues. Doing stuff like this is the reason why we don't have any space to begin with.

Contracts like Nurse and Campbell are the reason we don't have any space and the reason we have to do contracts like this.

 

[Soundwave]

Campbell contract was a big mistake looking back on it. Should have just traded for one year of Talbot to shelter Skinner, if you're going to commit a 5 year contract for a goalie they need to have a proven track record of being a starter for multiple years, Campbell did not have that.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Campbell contract was a big mistake looking back on it. Should have just traded for one year of Talbot to shelter Skinner, if you're going to commit a 5 year contract for a goalie they need to have a proven track record of being a starter for multiple years, Campbell did not have that.

It really does because he played poorly, they were not assuming Skinner was going to be as good as he was, so that's the risk. It was expected the other way. Campbell to take the majority of the duties with Skinner providing solid back up starts, but the script flipped.

 

[GOilers88]

We have 2 guaranteed years of McDrai, we are already making it harder to win in year 2 with this move.

I mean I sort of get it, but I really don't think it's going to be that big of an issue. If the cap doesn't rise at all sure. But I think there's plenty of salary they can move out.

And I've always been of the firm belief that unless they continue to get meaningful contributions from a couple of ELC players they're going to be hard pressed to succeed anyways. Holloway and Broberg this year. Bourgault/Lavoie/Tullio the next. They absolutely need this to succeed imo.

 

[Spawn]

There are realistically 4 players on the roster that you can move to find cap space to improve the roster: Foegele, Ceci, Kulak and Campbell.

If the goal was to upgrade Ceci, moving Ceci by himself does you no good because it will be very costly to upgrade his spot. To do so you would probably have to move one or both of Kulak or Foegele as well. But Brown's signing does not stop you from doing this. In fact, it makes it easier because you don't have to now find money to replace a top six RW at the same time.

If the goal is to find a better winger than Brown, then you have to start by moving Foegele. That won't do it because all you now have is $2.75M plus the $.775M from Brown for two wingers. $3.6M total for two wingers doesn't improve on Brown and Foegele. So you also move Kulak and go with Broberg and Niemo or sign a guy at $1M or less. Now you have $5.2M to upgrade on Brown and Foegele if you want better wingers but you still loose Kulak. $5.2M would be a challenge to find two guys who as a duo would be better than Brown and Foegele and compensate for the loss on the back end.

What this shows me is that with the cap space they have in hand the only way you could find the cap space to clearly upgrade he team this year over what it is with Brown would be to find it by trading or buying out Campbell in addition to moving out one or more of the above 4. But even then the answer is probably not from free agency so you also need assets in addition to make a trade.

I've spent a lot more time than I should trying to come up with some sort of realistic way that the team could have been made better this year than they have been with the Brown signing and I just can't find it without completely mortgaging the future. Maybe that's just my own lack of imagination. So if others have a plan I'd be happy to hear it.

Here's just one example of what could have been done:
Don't sign: Janmark, Ryan and Brown
Sign instead: Sprong (went for 2M on day 1 to Detroit) and say Tyler Motte and Derek Grant for 775k each (both are still available in free agency) and run 12F 7D instead of 13F 7D

No trades at all. Just a mildly different make up of your 4th line.

Now is Sprong better than Brown? Maybe not, but he did just have a better season offensively than anything Brown has ever done. Factor in Brown just missed an entire season of hockey and the difference might not be all that significant.

 

[Fourier]

Here's just one example of what could have been done:
Don't sign: Janmark, Ryan and Brown
Sign instead: Sprong (went for 2M on day 1 to Detroit) and say Tyler Motte and Derek Grant for 775k each (both are still available in free agency) and run 12F 7D instead of 13F 7D

No trades at all. Just a mildly different make up of your 4th line.

Now is Sprong better than Brown? Maybe not, but he did just have a better season offensively than anything Brown has ever done. Factor in Brown just missed an entire season of hockey and the difference might not be all that significant.

The issue here is that the three Oilers cost $1M less on the cap this year than the three guys you quote. That is $1M that the team may not have to spend. And Sprong has yet to show that he is in the same tier as Brown who has established himself for much more that his ability to generate points.

In your example Janmark and Ryan vs Motte and Grant are really independent of the signing of Brown. This comes down to Brown vs Sprong. For this year I don't think this is a close call if Brown is healthy especially since signing Sprong would force them to go with one less roster spot. But time will tell if this is the case given the carryover which I do admit is a risk.

 

[OilerTyler]

I've been racking my brain since the signing trying to think of ways that we can get out of this performance bonus for next season. I feel like Holland has a creative plan that maybe none of us have thought of yet.

From what I can tell the performance bonus gets added to our cap hit at the end of the regular season and any overage gets applied to next season's cap. I'm wondering what the rules say about sending a few guys down (on paper) to the AHL before game 82 of the season and running a 20 man roster for the last game. In theory we could end the season with $3.375 million in cap space by doing this. I do know there are rules around sending down and recalling players post-deadline so I'm not sure if this is an actual loophole that we could use or not. Any capologists out there that know?

 

[bucks_oil]

Right, fair enough. How many points does Connor Brown typically put up at EV over the course of a season?

Over the last three (played) years:

Brown: 98 in 191 games, or 0.513ppg or 42/82 games.

Yamamoto: 74 in 191 games, or 0.387 or 32/82 games.

Not the same.

 

[duul]

Over the last three (played) years:

Brown: 98 in 191 games, or 0.513ppg or 42/82 games.

Yamamoto: 74 in 191 games, or 0.387 or 32/82 games.

Not the same.

Thanks for that. I wonder if paying the price of Kostin to get Yamo to leave as a 3 million player vs paying this guy for 4 million in exchange for ~10 more EVP a year. Wonder if that's a difference maker for an extra 1 million dollars. I doubt anyone can rationalize that as being worth.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Campbell contract was a big mistake looking back on it. Should have just traded for one year of Talbot to shelter Skinner, if you're going to commit a 5 year contract for a goalie they need to have a proven track record of being a starter for multiple years, Campbell did not have that.

He bombed in year 1 of 5. If he rebounds next season he could still salvage the contract. If he sucks again he needs to be gone preferably before the playoffs. I wonder if Holland has an ace in his pocket to deal Campbell in season and acquire a cheap goalie to replace him if he bombs again? Maybe doing so could cancel out the Brown carry over?

 

[McDNicks17]

I've been racking my brain since the signing trying to think of ways that we can get out of this performance bonus for next season. I feel like Holland has a creative plan that maybe none of us have thought of yet.

From what I can tell the performance bonus gets added to our cap hit at the end of the regular season and any overage gets applied to next season's cap. I'm wondering what the rules say about sending a few guys down (on paper) to the AHL before game 82 of the season and running a 20 man roster for the last game. In theory we could end the season with $3.375 million in cap space by doing this. I do know there are rules around sending down and recalling players post-deadline so I'm not sure if this is an actual loophole that we could use or not. Any capologists out there that know?

The cap is confusing because pretty much everywhere talks about it as yearly lump sums, but it's actually calculated daily.

I think next season lasts something like 190 days, so everyone's daily cap hit is their cap hit divided by 190. Same goes for the daily cap. $83.5M divided by 190.

Saving money per day is what allows team to seemingly spend over the cap after the deadline. Dropping a couple guys off the roster for a day would only save about $8k assuming they're league minimum guys. You'd have to save at least the daily cap equivalent of the full $3.25M every day over the course of the year to end up not having it carry over.

 

[OilerTyler]

The cap is confusing because pretty much everywhere talks about it as yearly lump sums, but it's actually calculated daily.

I think next season lasts something like 190 days, so everyone's daily cap hit is their cap hit divided by 190. Same goes for the daily cap. $83.5M divided by 190.

Saving money per day is what allows team to seemingly spend over the cap after the deadline. Dropping a couple guys off the roster for a day would only save about $8k assuming they're league minimum guys. You'd have to save at least the daily cap equivalent of the full $3.25M every day over the course of the year to end up not having it carry over.

I need to save my brain the effort and leave this stuff to the capologists.

Thanks!