Confirmed with Link: Oilers sign Connor Brown to 1-year incentive laden deal ($775K caphit, potentially $3.25M in bonuses)

[duul]

The only other performance bonuses are for Broberg and Holloway. They total a little under $1.5M. But is is very unlikely that either player hits any substantial part of these bonuses. To do so Holloway would have to firmly establish himself as a top six forward and would probably have to hit 50+ points. Broberg would need to be one of the Oilers top 3 defensemen. And even if both managed those feats you would still be looking at under $500K most likely. So realistically you could expect from $0-200K from these two.

I have already explained why this contract will not prevent the Oilers from upgrading next year. Assuming the same roster minus say Foegele, they will have $3-4M to spend to upgrade. Add that to the Ceci deal and you could get a $7M defenseman. Now if they re-sign Brown then they will have less of course. But there will be other moves that could free up enough money for a much better defenseman.

Now imagine all of that space going into NEXT offseason, when you agree would be better for us to go all in, with an EXTRA 3.25 due to not having the Brown dead space. All of the things you are saying are correct, we can do things to gain cap. We can do those things independently of Brown. I guess at this point we've talked about it to death, it just seems like half-measure after half-measure is not the way to go about things. Look at how Tampa spent years going after Cup wins by loading up. Huge trades, prospects, picks, doing everything possible to get great players to come in and continue dominating. Addressing areas of needs, selling their future for it.

Have we moved a prospect? We've made one trade that involved prospects and picks of notable level which was for Ekholm, and looking at it objectively it was worth it, but probably an overpayment given how Ekholm began to falter and wilt slightly as we got into the playoffs. I can't imagine that opinion going over very well here though. Trying to think of what else Holland is done, looking now.

Yea, that's it. Holland has made one trade involving acquiring an established NHL player that involves first round picks or prospects, and they both happened in one trade. Contrast to Tampa.

There has to be a leap of faith made here soon where you say f*** it, we must give everything we possibly can to try and win here. These half-measures where you're adding one small piece here and there while maintaining a solid base of prospects and picks is not sustainable. You can't put yourself over the top like this. In theory it's nice but fact of the matter is we need to be moving guys like Ceci, Broberg, Holloway/Bourgault/Lavoie, 1st round picks, Yamo/Pulju back when they had value and it was obvious they aren't ever going to end up being impactful.

Holland is far too lackadaisacal for my liking. Look at the younger, shrewd GM's. Holland bats like 50% at best, it's not good enough.

 

[MessierII]

Thats interesting, I didnt know that it was cap remaining - bonuses = overage.

Thing is it won’t be 2 million it will be more like 200k. We’ll cap ourselves out at the deadline no matter what. Whatever cap space we go into the season with we can accrue up until the deadline to hopefully end the year at a decent number but it will be 2-400k max. Likely at the end of the year brown will come in at a final cap hit of about 1 million with about 3 dead on the cap next year. Depending on how much bonus money broberg and Holloway hit. To me though if broberg and Holloway are hitting significant bonus money that means they are playing good enough that you could probably dump foegele and kulak comfortably next offseason to free up another 5.5 million.

 

[bucks_oil]

Now imagine all of that space going into NEXT offseason, when you agree would be better for us to go all in, with an EXTRA 3.25 due to not having the Brown dead space. All of the things you are saying are correct, we can do things to gain cap. We can do those things independently of Brown. I guess at this point we've talked about it to death, it just seems like half-measure after half-measure is not the way to go about things. Look at how Tampa spent years going after Cup wins by loading up. Huge trades, prospects, picks, doing everything possible to get great players to come in and continue dominating. Addressing areas of needs, selling their future for it.

Have we moved a prospect? We've made one trade that involved prospects and picks of notable level which was for Ekholm, and looking at it objectively it was worth it, but probably an overpayment given how Ekholm began to falter and wilt slightly as we got into the playoffs. I can't imagine that opinion going over very well here though. Trying to think of what else Holland is done, looking now.

Yea, that's it. Holland has made one trade involving acquiring an established NHL player that involves first round picks or prospects, and they both happened in one trade. Contrast to Tampa.

There has to be a leap of faith made here soon where you say f*** it, we must give everything we possibly can to try and win here. These half-measures where you're adding one small piece here and there while maintaining a solid base of prospects and picks is not sustainable. You can't put yourself over the top like this. In theory it's nice but fact of the matter is we need to be moving guys like Ceci, Broberg, Holloway/Bourgault/Lavoie, 1st round picks, Yamo/Pulju back when they had value and it was obvious they aren't ever going to end up being impactful.

Holland is far too lackadaisacal for my liking. Look at the younger, shrewd GM's. Holland bats like 50% at best, it's not good enough.

1) Why would you suggest we wait till next year to go all in? Draisaitl and his agent need to make their decision at the end of this season. Don't you think he wants us to be all in this year?

2) No picks/prospects traded? That's one way to look at it. Another way is that we got THREE top 6 wingers for zero assets, and $11.75M in current cap (plus $3.25 deferred cap).

3) We don't really have a solid base of prospects... but agree that we should harvest what we can

4) This is the first year where we could go all in at the deadline (given we are not in LTIR). But you probably (just guessing here) won't like what it would need to look like... we'd need to trade Foegele + one of Ceci/Kulak NOW and rely on youth until then... only then would we have enough cap space to add meaningful pieces at the deadline.

 

[duul]

1) Why would you suggest we wait till next year to go all in? Draisaitl and his agent need to make their decision at the end of this season. Don't you think he wants us to be all in this year?

2) No picks/prospects traded? That's one way to look at it. Another way is that we got THREE top 6 wingers for zero assets, and $11.75M in current cap (plus $3.25 deferred cap).

3) We don't really have a solid base of prospects... but agree that we should harvest what we can

4) This is the first year where we could go all in at the deadline (given we are not in LTIR). But you probably (just guessing here) won't like what it would need to look like... we'd need to trade Foegele + one of Ceci/Kulak NOW and rely on youth until then... only then would we have enough cap space to add meaningful pieces at the deadline.

Good points. I am all for going 'all in' THIS YEAR, however, like you said -- that will require a lot of moving on from guys and playing with a real young roster going into TDL. I would be more than willing to do that, same as you it seems.

Feels like if we go into the season and TDL with status quo what we have right now, it's not a one small addition at wing type of thing that's going to put this team over the top. We are in real serious need of upgrades that involve stuff like Ceci + Foegele + Broberg + 1st(s) for a star defenceman. We're in that kind of territory.

I want to go all in this year because we have Brown, and because it feels like we're f***ed for next year already. Need to start putting our assets to use here to build a contender. To make an actual run not these half-assed attempts.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Curious what people predict for Brown's production numbers this season.

The Yamamoto Line (deference to Mendoza Line in baseball) is 20 goals and 41 points). Pretty good ROI on a $894,166 contact.

My hope is 25 goals and 25 assists. 1-1:30 PK and a team improvement to top 12-15 PK (from 20th). It is his defensive two way play I am most interested in and ability to help this team's goal suppression priority with a much better PK as one critical area to be improved upon.

 

[bucks_oil]

Good points. I am all for going 'all in' THIS YEAR, however, like you said -- that will require a lot of moving on from guys and playing with a real young roster going into TDL. I would be more than willing to do that, same as you it seems.

Feels like if we go into the season and TDL with status quo what we have right now, it's not a one small addition at wing type of thing that's going to put this team over the top. We are in real serious need of upgrades that involve stuff like Ceci + Foegele + Broberg + 1st(s) for a star defenceman. We're in that kind of territory.

I want to go all in this year because we have Brown, and because it feels like we're f***ed for next year already. Need to start putting our assets to use here to build a contender. To make an actual run not these half-assed attempts.

To your first paragraph. Yes, I absolutely advocate for that... cheap youth AND cheap vets until the deadline to build up our available cap. That's why I actually like the Brown deal... it gives us a relatively known quantity (injury of course being the risk), but at league minimum.

To your 2nd paragraph: but we can't afford to make that type of trade now IMO. Those three guys going out saves us ~$6.5M, but it can only be spent as follows: $750K x two to replace two of those bodies, which leaves only $5M to concentrate on replacement for one of them... but we likely still even need $1M of that to resign McLeod and Bouchard, so that only leaves $4M for the "star defenseman". The math just doesn't work.

That's why they have to go out NOW and we have to accrue cap.

That's what "all in" this year would look like.

Brown is part of what "all in" looks like this year.

 

[nabob]

What a horribly disingenuous comparison to make knowing the context, alternatives, ways around the cap including trades and buyouts and demotions etc.

Obviously there is no large upgrade to be made at D for 750k. That's not the point. The point is that Holland is incapable of doing something to improve the team by a substantial amount after the horrible situation he has put us in, because he is incapable of doing what is needed.

Either you're trolling or oblivious, especially when we look around the league at cap circumvention techniques, legit and borderline, including trades, that allow teams with minimal cap space to make deals to get good players.

Like, I don't know, packaging players of higher salary along with draft picks and prospects to acquire better players? The argument you're making is of the most face value, simplistic mode. I wonder if this is how Holland thinks too. Guhhhh we only got 750k...guess we should sign Connor Brown for 4 million!

Lots of words to throw some weak thinly veiled insults while being completely disingenuous yourself.

Thats interesting, I didnt know that it was cap remaining - bonuses = overage.

Correct. And the cap remaining is calculated daily. So I’d expect to see a fair amount of roster shuffling when the team has large stretches of days off and whatnot.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Curious what people predict for Brown's production numbers this season.

The Yamamoto Line (deference to Mendoza Line in baseball) is 20 goals and 41 points). Pretty good ROI on a $894,166 contact.

My hope is 25 goals and 25 assists. 1-1:30 PK and a team improvement to top 12-15 PK (from 20th). It is his defensive two way play I am most interested in and ability to help this team's goal suppression priority with a much better PK as one critical area to be improved upon.

If he's in the top 6 all year 55-60 points should be a minimum for a successful season IMO.

 

[OilerTyler]

If he's in the top 6 all year 55-60 points should be a minimum for a successful season IMO.

Keep in mind he is probably going to get next to zero PP time. Our second unit barely plays and the majority of the minutes they get start in our own zone with <30 seconds left on the PP. Outside of the top unit our highest power play point producer was Kane with 2 points last season.

Brown's production is going to be almost entirely even strength. 60 even strength points would've put him 16th in the league last season. 55 would put him at 27th. Seems like a pretty high bar to set as a minimum. For reference, Yams put up 23 and 33 even strength points the last two seasons.

 

[duul]

Keep in mind he is probably going to get next to zero PP time. Our second unit barely plays and the majority of the minutes they get start in our own zone with <30 seconds left on the PP. Outside of the top unit our highest power play point producer was Kane with 2 points last season.

Brown's production is going to be almost entirely even strength. 60 even strength points would've put him 16th in the league last season. 55 would put him at 27th. Seems like a pretty high bar to set as a minimum. For reference, Yams put up 23 and 33 even strength points the last two seasons.

So now we're paying 4 million for a guy who is going to put up pretty much the same amount of points as the guy we just got rid of for 3.1. What a troubled existence.

 

[Fourier]

Now imagine all of that space going into NEXT offseason, when you agree would be better for us to go all in, with an EXTRA 3.25 due to not having the Brown dead space. All of the things you are saying are correct, we can do things to gain cap. We can do those things independently of Brown. I guess at this point we've talked about it to death, it just seems like half-measure after half-measure is not the way to go about things. Look at how Tampa spent years going after Cup wins by loading up. Huge trades, prospects, picks, doing everything possible to get great players to come in and continue dominating. Addressing areas of needs, selling their future for it.

Have we moved a prospect? We've made one trade that involved prospects and picks of notable level which was for Ekholm, and looking at it objectively it was worth it, but probably an overpayment given how Ekholm began to falter and wilt slightly as we got into the playoffs. I can't imagine that opinion going over very well here though. Trying to think of what else Holland is done, looking now.

Yea, that's it. Holland has made one trade involving acquiring an established NHL player that involves first round picks or prospects, and they both happened in one trade. Contrast to Tampa.

There has to be a leap of faith made here soon where you say f*** it, we must give everything we possibly can to try and win here. These half-measures where you're adding one small piece here and there while maintaining a solid base of prospects and picks is not sustainable. You can't put yourself over the top like this. In theory it's nice but fact of the matter is we need to be moving guys like Ceci, Broberg, Holloway/Bourgault/Lavoie, 1st round picks, Yamo/Pulju back when they had value and it was obvious they aren't ever going to end up being impactful.

Holland is far too lackadaisacal for my liking. Look at the younger, shrewd GM's. Holland bats like 50% at best, it's not good enough.

I have been critical of Holland in terms of his creativity. Not getting any retention on Keith is one of the most glaring examples. I also think he could have handled the situation with Yamamoto and JP differently. But I think a lot of that was a mistake by the players themselves. They priced themselves out of the Oilers and may well have damaged their own career earning potential by asking for too much. I think Mcleod could well be making the very same mistake. Even Bouchard is taking a risk. His best chance to earn big dollars. But I fully support the Brown signing because I think it gives them a much better chance to win THIS year, It is s not just Brown over Yamamoto but it is also the flexibility to make a bigger move at the TDL if the opportunity is there. Basically Ekholm 2.0 is what I am talking about. What that move might be is not clear. But if you wait until next year its also not clear what will be available.

Here is a name I would keep my eye on as a longshot impact player: Jared Spurgeon. If Minnesota takes a big step back, which they might look at his age and the fact that they still have one more year of $14M in dead cap and look at getting an Ekholm type return at the deadline.

The FA pool is not that great next year though and fewer teams will be up against the cap. So its not at all clear that there will be a lot of choice in terms of UFAs or the type of cap moves we have seen this year next off season .

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Keep in mind he is probably going to get next to zero PP time. Our second unit barely plays and the majority of the minutes they get start in our own zone with <30 seconds left on the PP. Outside of the top unit our highest power play point producer was Kane with 2 points last season.

Brown's production is going to be almost entirely even strength. 60 even strength points would've put him 16th in the league last season. 55 would put him at 27th. Seems like a pretty high bar to set as a minimum. For reference, Yams put up 23 and 33 even strength points the last two seasons.

Well how many guys get to play with 1 of Connor or Leon and 1 of Kane, Hyman or RNH? he should get 2nd unit PP time and some PK time. 5-10PP points, 1-4SH points so that means 6-14 points on special teams out of those 55-60 points. The whole reason that we are sewering next seasons cap is because he should be twice the player that guys like Yamamoto and Puljujarvi were for us.

Hyman had 57ES points
RNH had 47ES points
Kane was on pace for 48ES points

If he gets lots of McDrai time he should be at least a 40ES point guy IMO.

 

[Fourier]

Well how many guys get to play with 1 of Connor or Leon and 1 of Kane, Hyman or RNH? he should get 2nd unit PP time and some PK time. 5-10PP points, 1-4SH points so that means 6-14 points on special teams out of those 55-60 points. The whole reason that we are sewering next seasons cap is because he should be twice the player that guys like Yamamoto and Puljujarvi were for us.

Hyman had 57ES points
RNH had 47ES points
Kane was on pace for 48ES points

If he gets lots of McDrai time he should be at least a 40ES point guy IMO.

You have to take into account that he is actually at $.755M this year. He's not really replacing Yamamoto. They could not afford Yamamoto at $3.1M this year. He is replacing the guy who you were signing for $.775M otherwise. Yamamoto's money will be spent on Bouchard.

For the $.775-1M you could afford you are getting a true 4th liner. I know you like MacEwan for example. What aspect of Brown's game could he replace. Would he get 50 points playing with McDavid or Leon. Is he very good defensively. Could he be on your #1pk unit? This is what you have to ask when assessing Brown vs the alternative.

I'll say this again, he's not sewering the cap next year. They should still have money to spend to improve the team.

 

[Whyme]

You have to take into account that he is actually at $.755M this year. He's not really replacing Yamamoto. They could not afford Yamamoto at $3.1M this year. He is replacing the guy who you were signing for $.775M otherwise. Yamamoto's money will be spent on Bouchard.

For $.775-1M, all you could afford you are getting a true 4th liner. I know you like MacEwan for example. What aspect of Brown's game could he replace. Would he get 50 points playing with McDavid or Leon. Is he very good defensively. Could he be on your #1pk unit? This is what you have to ask when assessing Brown vs the alternative.

I'll say this again, he's not sewering the cap next year. They should still have money to spend to improve the team.

Hopefully my final take about this. They may have money to improve the team, but as long as the certainty to win the SC is less than 100% all the cap is needed. Even if you improve the team it's unlikely you will win the whole thing. You just have to find all the possible ways to increase your chances.

However, I'm not saying this is necessarily a bad move. I think there's about 30% chance of this becoming a bad contract, but as high to be a great one. Even if it turns bad it won't mean they can't have a reasonable chance to win the SC next year. I'm not a huge fan due to things I've said earlier, but I've seen worse contracts and I do reckognize Brown may also be just what this team needs.

E: Anyway we are on the same page here, maybe different chapter but still.

 

[Fourier]

Hopefully my final take about this. They may have money to improve the team, but as long as the certainty to win the SC is less than 100% all the cap is needed. Even if you improve the team it's unlikely you will win the whole thing. You just have to find all the possible ways to increase your chances.

However, I'm not saying this is necessarily a bad move. I think there's about 30% chance of this becoming a bad contract, but as high to be a great one. Even if it turns bad it won't mean they can't have a reasonable chance to win the SC next year. I'm not a huge fan due to things I've said earlier, but I've seen worse contracts and I do reckognize Brown may also be just what this team needs.

E: Anyway we are on the same page here, maybe different chapter but still.

As an season ticket holder for the 1985-86 Oilers I can tell you with 100% certainty that there is never a 100% chance you win the cup.

The key here is that there is no reason to believe that winning this year is less likely than it would be next year with the additional cap. There are far too many unknowns.

 

[OilerTyler]

Well how many guys get to play with 1 of Connor or Leon and 1 of Kane, Hyman or RNH? he should get 2nd unit PP time and some PK time. 5-10PP points, 1-4SH points so that means 6-14 points on special teams out of those 55-60 points. The whole reason that we are sewering next seasons cap is because he should be twice the player that guys like Yamamoto and Puljujarvi were for us.

Hyman had 57ES points
RNH had 47ES points
Kane was on pace for 48ES points

If he gets lots of McDrai time he should be at least a 40ES point guy IMO.

40ES points seems like a realistic minimum. But like I said, Brown won't be scoring 5-10 power play points. No one outside of our top unit scored more than 2 last season. He just won't get the PP ice time required to score that many. In order to put up 55-60 points at least 50-55 of them will have to be even strength.

Edit: here are some ES strength point totals for some different players last season

Zibanejad - 50
Gaudreau - 50
Ovechkin - 50
Stamkos - 49
Pavelski - 49
Nugent-Hopkins - 47
Malkin - 47
Scheifele - 46
Horvat - 43
Miller - 43
Marchessault - 41
Tavares - 41

If Brown ends up in that tier we should be pretty stoked.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

40ES points seems like a realistic minimum. But like I said, Brown won't be scoring 5-10 power play points. No one outside of our top unit scored more than 2 last season. He just won't get the PP ice time required to score that many. In order to put up 55-60 points at least 50-55 of them will have to be even strength.

I mean I don't want to bury the guy before he even suits up, but if he finishes at a rate even 10% higher than the guys who were there last year, 20+ goals and 50+ pts is well within range.

 

[OilerTyler]

I mean I don't want to bury the guy before he even suits up, but if he finishes at a rate even 10% higher than the guys who were there last year, 20+ goals and 50+ pts is well within range.

I don’t disagree at all. I’m just saying that would be a really successful season, not the bare minimum we should expect.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I don’t disagree at all. I’m just saying that would be a really successful season, not the bare minimum we should expect.

Frankly it's both, imo. Because we never really know about the "fit," but Brown is a bit better player than your Rieders and what not "hoping" to be a fit.

 

[bucks_oil]

Correct. And the cap remaining is calculated daily. So I’d expect to see a fair amount of roster shuffling when the team has large stretches of days off and whatnot.

.... so that we can SPEND EVERY LAST DIME OF IT at the deadline, right?!

 

[bucks_oil]

So now we're paying 4 million for a guy who is going to put up pretty much the same amount of points as the guy we just got rid of for 3.1. What a troubled existence.

23pts||||||SIZABLE GAP||||||33pts||||||||||HUGE GAP||||||||||||||||||STILL GAP||||||||55pts||||||||60pts

@duul "Pretty much the same" = gaslighting

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

.... so that we can SPEND EVERY LAST DIME OF IT at the deadline, right?!

This would be my assumption.

 

[duul]

23pts||||||SIZABLE GAP||||||33pts||||||||||HUGE GAP||||||||||||||||||STILL GAP||||||||55pts||||||||60pts

@duul "Pretty much the same" = gaslighting

No clue what is implied here. Yamamoto put up 41 points the year before last, his last healthy season. Yamo and Connor Brown put up very similar point totals through their entire careers looking at ppg. Both are regularly injured. They're similar players. Hate to say it man but look at both of their careers.

 

[bucks_oil]

No clue what is implied here. Yamamoto put up 41 points the year before last, his last healthy season. Yamo and Connor Brown put up very similar point totals through their entire careers looking at ppg. Both are regularly injured. They're similar players. Hate to say it man but look at both of their careers.

Now you are "changing the goalposts".

Go back and read your own post #610 as well as the quoted post from Tyler which was in response to Bryan. Let be break it down for you.

@Bryanbryoil said 55-60 points should be the expectation if in the top 6
@OilerTyler responded that all of Brown's offense will have to come at EV since he won't be on the power play (which Yamo often was in his bigger producing years) and very few in the league score 55 points at EV... he then went on to factually point out that Yamamoto scored only 23 and 33 EV points for the Oilers.

To which your (snarky IMO) response: "So now we're paying 4 million for a guy who is going to put up pretty much the same amount of points as the guy we just got rid of for 3.1. What a troubled existence. "

That's classic gaslighting. @OilerTyler wasn't saying that at all, and the (gaslighting) assertion you made doesn't logically follow from the conversation.

Brown could score 45 EV points, it would be a HUGE season, a HUGE improvement over Yamamoto's 23 and 33 EV points, but still a long way from 55 EV points... which, to his point, is an unreasonable expectation.

 

[duul]

Now you are "changing the goalposts".

Go back and read your own post #610 as well as the quoted post from Tyler which was in response to Bryan. Let be break it down for you.

@Bryanbryoil said 55-60 points should be the expectation if in the top 6
@OilerTyler responded that all of Brown's offense will have to come at EV since he won't be on the power play (which Yamo often was in his bigger producing years) and very few in the league score 55 points at EV... he then went on to factually point out that Yamamoto scored only 23 and 33 EV points for the Oilers.

To which your (snarky IMO) response: "So now we're paying 4 million for a guy who is going to put up pretty much the same amount of points as the guy we just got rid of for 3.1. What a troubled existence. "

That's classic gaslighting. @OilerTyler wasn't saying that at all, and the (gaslighting) assertion you made doesn't logically follow from the conversation.

Brown could score 45 EV points, it would be a HUGE season, a HUGE improvement over Yamamoto's 23 and 33 EV points, but still a long way from 55 EV points... which, to his point, is an unreasonable expectation.

Right, fair enough. How many points does Connor Brown typically put up at EV over the course of a season?