Confirmed with Link: Oilers sign Connor Brown to 1-year incentive laden deal ($775K caphit, potentially $3.25M in bonuses)

[Drivesaitl]

Thats a fair comment. I stopped my work and went back and took the time to reread your posts.
Here is what you stated....


If this quote from you (especially the bolded) isnt referencing his regular season performance and how that impacted the coaches confidence in the playoffs then please do tell me what it is you are referencing.
Keep in mind that you then tried to support your argument by bringing up Campbells reg season win %.

If you look back I even stated "Not attributing" when citing the win %. If you don't know what that meant just ask. It means I'm not attributing. I just cited it in specific response to you stating that "Campbell as a matter of fact cost us first place"

I then went on to say that I don't evaluate goalies on one season as its classically a spot subject to up and down moments. you think that I stated something different than what I stated.

nor am I abjectly supporting Campbell I'm stating that the situation HAS to be rectified as we are now stuck with Campbell and the contract. The team needed to address this, and be addressing the value of the player by giving him chances to get his game back. That they didn't do that in the playoffs is what I objected to, being that they have Campbell longterm. Its poor player management to do what the team did to their considerably priced starter no matter what ones opinion is of his one season. Given whats occured how does the org resolve this?

The debacle is referring to the disconnect between Holland and Woody on the player, and which also potentially undermines the player.

 

[guymez]

If you look back I even stated "Not attributing" when citing the win %. If you don't know what that meant just ask. It means I'm not attributing. I just cited it in specific response to you stating that "Campbell as a matter of fact cost us first place"

I then went on to say that I don't evaluate goalies on one season as its classically a spot subject to up and down moments. you think that I stated something different than what I stated.

nor am I abjectly supporting Campbell I'm stating that the situation HAS to be rectified as we are now stuck with Campbell and the contract. The team needed to address this, and be addressing the value of the player by giving him chances to get his game back. That they didn't do that in the playoffs is what I objected to, being that they have Campbell longterm. Its poor player management to do what the team did to their considerably priced starter no matter what ones opinion is of his one season. Given whats occured how does the org resolve this?

The debacle is referring to the disconnect between Holland and Woody on the player, and which also potentially undermines the player.

What disconnect? What do you mean by this?

 

[bucks_oil]

But this seems like absolving Holland for creating this cap nightmare. From a GM with a history of being hard up against cap, and even filling up the cap with teams that were bad.

I can't really adopt the past is past theme. We have Campbell on a longterm here at considerable cost, a goalie the Coach didn't even want to use, we have overpay contracts,

To me the job of a GM involves responsible asset management. pricing of assets and allocation of cap, and value are requisites. We lost for instance value of players like Kostin, and Bjugstad who were among our top goal scorers in playoffs because we couldn't afford them. We only had Bjugstad on a TDL rental because we wouldn't afford anything else last season after getting Ekholm. Even last season if we had some bucks laying around we could have solidified our goaltending spot. The way its shaking out we're the same way this season. We will be unable to add reasonable players even if they cost little. Whatever lineup we have is what we got. That doesn't speak all in to me.

Hold on, hold on...

If you want to ascribe blame for cap situations and value created or lost, let's be balanced, shall we?

Here are the currently relevant messes that Holland created:
1) Nurse is $2M overpaid. We've all agreed on that. Many of us have also agreed he was over a barrel caused by Klefbom retiring and Larsson leaving in heartbreak.
2) Campbell is about $5M overpaid. This was a blown bet, no question. Who is our pro-level goaltending scout? His head should roll. Oh, we don't have one? Ok Kenny, you made your bet.

As for your other critiques above:
1) Ekholm has been a godsend, huge value created at the deadline using "rental like return" for a fair market contract with three more years on it. You MUST give huge props to Holland on this one or you just aren't being intellectually honest.
2) Bjugstad was a standard rental. 80% of those guys walk every summer. If Holland is doing his job, we should lose another guy like that next summer.
3) Kostin was conjured from Samorukov, don't forget that. Net neutral at worst. And bonus points for shedding Yamamoto with a guy we could not or would not resign. Once Kostin was asking for $2M he was worth zero to us, kudos for shedding Yamamoto along with him.

As for the rest of the cap mess, none of it and I mean ZERO was Holland's fault. Here are the guys we have signed for more than $1.5M.
Signed pre Holland: McDavid, Draisaitl
Signed by Holland: Nurse, RNH, Hyman, Kane, Ceci, Kulak, Skinner

Which of the guys signed pre-Holland should we cap dump? Right!

Which of the guys signed by Holland (other than Nurse, Campbell) are overpaid or huge mistakes? None!

The guy has made one terrible bet and one meaningful overpayment. In the grand scheme of things, compared to most GMs that's not that bad.

 

[Soundwave]

Hold on, hold on...

If you want to ascribe blame for cap situations and value created or lost, let's be balanced, shall we?

Here are the currently relevant messes that Holland created:
1) Nurse is $2M overpaid. We've all agreed on that. Many of us have also agreed he was over a barrel caused by Klefbom retiring and Larsson leaving in heartbreak.
2) Campbell is about $5M overpaid. This was a blown bet, no question. Who is our pro-level goaltending scout? His head should roll. Oh, we don't have one? Ok Kenny, you made your bet.

As for your other critiques above:
1) Ekholm has been a godsend, huge value created at the deadline using "rental like return" for a fair market contract with three more years on it. You MUST give huge props to Holland on this one or you just aren't being intellectually honest.
2) Bjugstad was a standard rental. 80% of those guys walk every summer. If Holland is doing his job, we should lose another guy like that next summer.
3) Kostin was conjured from Samorukov, don't forget that. Net neutral at worst. And bonus points for shedding Yamamoto with a guy we could not or would not resign. Once Kostin was asking for $2M he was worth zero to us, kudos for shedding Yamamoto along with him.

As for the rest of the cap mess, none of it and I mean ZERO was Holland's fault. Here are the guys we have signed for more than $1.5M.
Signed pre Holland: McDavid, Draisaitl
Signed by Holland: Nurse, RNH, Hyman, Kane, Ceci, Kulak, Skinner

Which of the guys signed pre-Holland should we cap dump? Right!

Which of the guys signed by Holland (other than Nurse, Campbell) are overpaid or huge mistakes? None!

The guy has made one terrible bet and one meaningful overpayment. In the grand scheme of things, compared to most GMs that's not that bad.

7 million in poorly spent cap is not a little.

Look if you want to just be average or above average, fine, that's fine, but if you want more than that, you have to manage your cap better than that. Most Cup winners have good cap management or have aggressive management that will get out of problematic contracts quickly.

 

[guymez]

Hold on, hold on...

If you want to ascribe blame for cap situations and value created or lost, let's be balanced, shall we?

Here are the currently relevant messes that Holland created:
1) Nurse is $2M overpaid. We've all agreed on that. Many of us have also agreed he was over a barrel caused by Klefbom retiring and Larsson leaving in heartbreak.
2) Campbell is about $5M overpaid. This was a blown bet, no question. Who is our pro-level goaltending scout? His head should roll. Oh, we don't have one? Ok Kenny, you made your bet.

As for your other critiques above:
1) Ekholm has been a godsend, huge value created at the deadline using "rental like return" for a fair market contract with three more years on it. You MUST give huge props to Holland on this one or you just aren't being intellectually honest.
2) Bjugstad was a standard rental. 80% of those guys walk every summer. If Holland is doing his job, we should lose another guy like that next summer.
3) Kostin was conjured from Samorukov, don't forget that. Net neutral at worst. And bonus points for shedding Yamamoto with a guy we could not or would not resign. Once Kostin was asking for $2M he was worth zero to us, kudos for shedding Yamamoto along with him.

As for the rest of the cap mess, none of it and I mean ZERO was Holland's fault. Here are the guys we have signed for more than $1.5M.
Signed pre Holland: McDavid, Draisaitl
Signed by Holland: Nurse, RNH, Hyman, Kane, Ceci, Kulak, Skinner

Which of the guys signed pre-Holland should we cap dump? Right!

Which of the guys signed by Holland (other than Nurse, Campbell) are overpaid or huge mistakes? None!

The guy has made one terrible bet and one meaningful overpayment. In the grand scheme of things, compared to most GMs that's not that bad.

Hard to argue with any of this.
That being said the Campbell mistake is monumental and has the potential to undo much of the good work Holland has done.
Mistakes of that magnitude simply cant happen when the window to win is now.

 

[Beerfish]

Hold on, hold on...

If you want to ascribe blame for cap situations and value created or lost, let's be balanced, shall we?

Here are the currently relevant messes that Holland created:
1) Nurse is $2M overpaid. We've all agreed on that. Many of us have also agreed he was over a barrel caused by Klefbom retiring and Larsson leaving in heartbreak.
2) Campbell is about $5M overpaid. This was a blown bet, no question. Who is our pro-level goaltending scout? His head should roll. Oh, we don't have one? Ok Kenny, you made your bet.

As for your other critiques above:
1) Ekholm has been a godsend, huge value created at the deadline using "rental like return" for a fair market contract with three more years on it. You MUST give huge props to Holland on this one or you just aren't being intellectually honest.
2) Bjugstad was a standard rental. 80% of those guys walk every summer. If Holland is doing his job, we should lose another guy like that next summer.
3) Kostin was conjured from Samorukov, don't forget that. Net neutral at worst. And bonus points for shedding Yamamoto with a guy we could not or would not resign. Once Kostin was asking for $2M he was worth zero to us, kudos for shedding Yamamoto along with him.

As for the rest of the cap mess, none of it and I mean ZERO was Holland's fault. Here are the guys we have signed for more than $1.5M.
Signed pre Holland: McDavid, Draisaitl
Signed by Holland: Nurse, RNH, Hyman, Kane, Ceci, Kulak, Skinner

Which of the guys signed pre-Holland should we cap dump? Right!

Which of the guys signed by Holland (other than Nurse, Campbell) are overpaid or huge mistakes? None!

The guy has made one terrible bet and one meaningful overpayment. In the grand scheme of things, compared to most GMs that's not that bad.

You do not kill your cap by the big ticket players, you kill your cap by over paying and over terming the non difference maker mid to lower tier players and this is where holland has been dreadful.

From guys like Turris to the kassian debacle, to guys like foegle, kulak and ceci who we (the fan base) are trying to dump now to the guy you praised holland for Yamo. You praise him for getting rid of yamo but do not take him to task for signing a guy for 3 mill for two years who was the same player then as he was now when he dumped him
He pays guys too much generally or if not over terms them for no reason at all which is the bigger sin.

Making only a million or not there was no reason in the world to give Ryan a two year deal.

All of the multi year deals for a million or so too much to middling non difference makers is what keeps in you in cap hell.

At least he only gave Janmark one year and at least he only gave brown one year even if he is not paying for him until next year.

 

[oobga]

Hard to argue with any of this.
That being said the Campbell mistake is monumental and has the potential to undo much of the good work Holland has done.
Mistakes of that magnitude simply cant happen when the window to win is now.

Sucks because there were signs Campbell had issues in his game. His high danger sav% was horrendous, and ended up like that with us. Bet be he would have got a big red flag from a number of teams with a good analytics department. Can be good in short bursts, but on average a hard guy to really trust as #1.

Just for pure comedy as well, to end off his chaotic season, he actually got hot at the perfect time for us and we (Woody) decided we weren't interested.

Hope he is having the summer of his life right now and our 50 lives goalie coach is somehow able to pull off some miracles with him.

 

[Fourier]

You do not kill your cap by the big ticket players, you kill your cap by over paying and over terming the non difference maker mid to lower tier players and this is where holland has been dreadful.

From guys like Turris to the kassian debacle, to guys like foegle, kulak and ceci who we (the fan base) are trying to dump now to the guy you praised holland for Yamo. You praise him for getting rid of yamo but do not take him to task for signing a guy for 3 mill for two years who was the same player then as he was now when he dumped him
He pays guys too much generally or if not over terms them for no reason at all which is the bigger sin.

Making only a million or not there was no reason in the world to give Ryan a two year deal.

All of the multi year deals for a million or so too much to middling non difference makers is what keeps in you in cap hell.

At least he only gave Janmark one year and at least he only gave brown one year even if he is not paying for him until next year.

Deals like Ryan's two year deal do not keep you in cap hell. Just the opposite. They gives you cap flexibility because if the player gets beat out you can send him to BAK with no cost on the cap. In Ryan's case he may go or he might just retire. For older but still useful players the extra year could well be what allows you to keep the cap under $1M.

If the cap takes a big jump as expected, then guys at Ryan's level will also be harder to sign under $1M on one year deals going forward. This has always been the pattern. In flat times older bottom six guys get squeezed. When the cap is rising fast they become more expensive.

I do agree that it is not generally the top guys that kill you. It's over paying second and third tier guys. It is $3.2M for Kassian and such. The Oilers are still managing to pay a price for Lucic given the $1.9M dead cap form the Neal buyout that is a direct consequence of that signing.

Right now I think that the three most unaffordable contracts on the Oilers are Campbell, Foegele and Kulak in that order. Campbell for obvious reasons. Foegele next because he could be replaced by a guy earning $1M or less without serious consequences. Kulak actually earns his money, but for a team that is heavily cap squeezed a bottom pairing defenseman at over $2M is a bit of a luxury.

 

[bucks_oil]

Hard to argue with any of this.
That being said the Campbell mistake is monumental and has the potential to undo much of the good work Holland has done.
Mistakes of that magnitude simply cant happen when the window to win is now.

There is no arguing against Campbell. And this is the tough part. Holland comes into an almost unworkable cap situation, with a pretty bare prospect cupboard and being the old school, "build from within" guy, he was not set up for immediate success.

Which breeds impatience... necessary given McDrai's window.

And he does a lot of good... lots of it... but follows it up with one terrible bet.

He can recover from that terrible bet, but he's also only one year into a 5 year contract... can't possibly buy out Campbell until next summer and Campbell was so MONUMENTALLY bad, that nobody will touch his contract this summer.

I mean, you can blame Holland for the contract... we should... but look at who was actually out there last summer when Holland finally had a chance to get away from Chia's Koskinen and stop-gap Smith. Were there slam-dunk better options? Not really. Was it ever tenable that he would just do nothing and hope for Skinner to emerge with a 1b Talbot-like mentor/backup? The fanbase would have strung him up, and rightly so. We HAD to spend money at the best available goalie in summer of 2022. Holland didn't choose the UFA crop.

He was painted into a corner to make a rash decision and it completely blew up in his face... and let's not forget that nobody would have expected Campbell to be this bad... I mean this is a goalie who practically had a mental breakdown in front of our eyes. Good management can (and must) recover from mistakes like this, but it isn't always possible to do it overnight.

It is rationale to accept that... failing a trade with multiple positive assets attached,... maybe the best course of action from where we stand now is to allow for at least some recovery to Campbell's normal (career 0.910 vs last year's 0.888) and package him with (fewer) assets required at the deadline.

 

[bucks_oil]

7 million in poorly spent cap is not a little.

Look if you want to just be average or above average, fine, that's fine, but if you want more than that, you have to manage your cap better than that. Most Cup winners have good cap management or have aggressive management that will get out of problematic contracts quickly.

It's one catastrophic mistake... and as above, the player didn't do Holland any favors.

Good management will get out of contracts quickly, agree... but your expectations of "quickly" might not be realistic. It's understandable you are impatient given the compressed timeline to winning (man wouldn't a Drai extension go a LONG way to relieving some of that timeline pressure?).

But getting out of a horrendously bad UFA contract rarely happens in less than 400 calendar days. Campbell needs to give Holland a little help here.

 

[Whyme]

There is no arguing against Campbell. And this is the tough part. Holland comes into an almost unworkable cap situation, with a pretty bare prospect cupboard and being the old school, "build from within" guy, he was not set up for immediate success.

Which breeds impatience... necessary given McDrai's window.

And he does a lot of good... lots of it... but follows it up with one terrible bet.

He can recover from that terrible bet, but he's also only one year into a 5 year contract... can't possibly buy out Campbell until next summer and Campbell was so MONUMENTALLY bad, that nobody will touch his contract this summer.

I mean, you can blame Holland for the contract... we should... but look at who was actually out there last summer when Holland finally had a chance to get away from Chia's Koskinen and stop-gap Smith. Were there slam-dunk better options? Not really. Was it ever tenable that he would just do nothing and hope for Skinner to emerge with a 1b Talbot-like mentor/backup? The fanbase would have strung him up, and rightly so. We HAD to spend money at the best available goalie in summer of 2022. Holland didn't choose the UFA crop.

He was painted into a corner to make a rash decision and it completely blew up in his face... and let's not forget that nobody would have expected Campbell to be this bad... I mean this is a goalie who practically had a mental breakdown in front of our eyes. Good management can (and must) recover from mistakes like this, but it isn't always possible to do it overnight.

It is rationale to accept that... failing a trade with multiple positive assets attached,... maybe the best course of action from where we stand now is to allow for at least some recovery to Campbell's normal (career 0.910 vs last year's 0.888) and package him with (fewer) assets required at the deadline.

I think it's more complicated than having just one bad move. Like if you had Wallstedt you'd have a much better chance to get a proven good goalie in a trade. If you had Zegras you'd have the missing piece in top6 or could trade him for a top defender. Yamamoto's contract cost at least what you would've got for Kostin, which could've been used e.g. to get retention to a new contract if Kostin himself wasn't kept. Some extra millions to Nurse and some others probably meant lesser players in some places (e.g. 3 million could already make a difference between Ceci and someone like Ekholm) etc. So it could've been worse, but also better.

 

[bucks_oil]

You do not kill your cap by the big ticket players, you kill your cap by over paying and over terming the non difference maker mid to lower tier players and this is where holland has been dreadful.

From guys like Turris to the kassian debacle, to guys like foegle, kulak and ceci who we (the fan base) are trying to dump now to the guy you praised holland for Yamo. You praise him for getting rid of yamo but do not take him to task for signing a guy for 3 mill for two years who was the same player then as he was now when he dumped him
He pays guys too much generally or if not over terms them for no reason at all which is the bigger sin.

Making only a million or not there was no reason in the world to give Ryan a two year deal.

All of the multi year deals for a million or so too much to middling non difference makers is what keeps in you in cap hell.

At least he only gave Janmark one year and at least he only gave brown one year even if he is not paying for him until next year.

I disagree, or at least the examples you are giving are proving the counter point.

Which of those contracts are currently damaging us?

Ryan took a paycut to get to $900K. The exchange was a two year term. And in year two if he's not performing, his cap his is BELOW the buried threshold. Ryan is a vet utility player that doesn't hurt you. He's signed below the buried threshold, he's not a problem.
Minimum NHL Salary & Buried Cap Hit | Puckpedia

Kulak and Ceci are both middle pairing capable players who the Edmonton Oilers might decide to upgrade. Until we find that upgrade (from a team going in a different direction, or whatever) they are completely useful guys who are NOT overpaid. Kulak for his part was one of our best defensemen in the playoffs. Ceci, when fully healthy, was our 2nd best defender in 2022. The ONLY reason that these guys are coming up in conversation is that our actual cap structure has so few places where we can save money.

Yamamoto: is a perfect example of active management to get out of a jam. Yamamoto was signed as a 20 goal scorer, who'd had stints (DRY line) of PPG play. He was 23 and signed a two year prove-it deal at $3.1. He then went on to have a major concussion that also resulted in neck issues... after one substandard season, he was attached to a guy who we had done our diligence on and determined there was no realistic way to sign him at what we felt it was worth... another shrewd business move. We made the call that Kostin was not worth $2M to us, so we jettisoned him with a slightly problematic $3.1M in cap for an unhealthy player. Problem solved.

Kassian: is a great example of a bad contract recognized and dealt with. Chiarelli would have obstinately kept Kassian on McDavid's wing... you know that. Tambellini would still be asking others for advice and sitting on his hands. Holland made a mistake and was PROACTIVE. Kassian is long gone and has ZERO impact on our cap today.

And because of that, after several years of decent management... our cap situation is getting much healthier:

We are out of LTIR

We are one year away from having ZERO dead cap

The oilers have a grand total of 12 of 24 players (about to be 14 with Bouch and McLeod) who are above the "bury with no penalty" threshold. Here they are:

Great contracts, underpaid relative to value: McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Kane, Hyman, Ekholm

Fair Value: Ceci, Kulak, Skinner

Overpaid: Nurse, Foegele

Horrendously Crippling: Campbell

Everyone else, which includes some solid role players and rookies does not matter to our cap... they can be buried and replaced at will.

If Campbell were Toronto-level Campbell, we aren't even having this conversation. The rest of the roster (save Nurse who we still want to keep and Foegele) is solid value

 

[Whyme]

I disagree, or at least the examples you are giving are proving the counter point.

Which of those contracts are currently damaging us?

Ryan took a paycut to get to $900K. The exchange was a two year term. And in year two if he's not performing, his cap his is BELOW the buried threshold. Ryan is a vet utility player that doesn't hurt you. He's signed below the buried threshold, he's not a problem.
Minimum NHL Salary & Buried Cap Hit | Puckpedia

Kulak and Ceci are both middle pairing capable players who the Edmonton Oilers might decide to upgrade. Until we find that upgrade (from a team going in a different direction, or whatever) they are completely useful guys who are NOT overpaid. Kulak for his part was one of our best defensemen in the playoffs. Ceci, when fully healthy, was our 2nd best defender in 2022. The ONLY reason that these guys are coming up in conversation is that our actual cap structure has so few places where we can save money.

Yamamoto: is a perfect example of active management to get out of a jam. Yamamoto was signed as a 20 goal scorer, who'd had stints (DRY line) of PPG play. He was 23 and signed a two year prove-it deal at $3.1. He then went on to have a major concussion that also resulted in neck issues... after one substandard season, he was attached to a guy who we had done our diligence on and determined there was no realistic way to sign him at what we felt it was worth... another shrewd business move. We made the call that Kostin was not worth $2M to us, so we jettisoned him with a slightly problematic $3.1M in cap for an unhealthy player. Problem solved.

Back to cap management. The oilers have a grand total of 12 of 24 players (about to be 14 with Bouch and McLeod) who are above the "bury with no penalty" threshold. Here they are:

Great contracts, underpaid relative to value: McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Kane, Hyman, Ekholm

Fair Value: Ceci, Kulak, Skinner

Overpaid: Nurse, Foegele

Horrendously Crippling: Campbell

Everyone else, which includes some solid role players and rookies does not matter to our cap... they can be buried and replaced at will.

If Campbell were Toronto-level Campbell, we aren't even having this conversation. The rest of the roster (save Nurse who we still want to keep and Foegele) is solid value

I agree with some points, but do think you leave out some moves that seem bad at the moment. We'll also see how it continues with Nuge, Hyman and Kane. Nuge had a great regular season, but has worse years behind so hopefully it continues well. Hyman has been fine, but the term is long so it can start biting back, we'll see. What I mean is it's easier to make these contracts with term and thus maybe pay the price later. Kane was great when he came, but wasn't worth his salary last season. Yeah injuries and all, but too early to say if this will be a good or bad contract.

 

[bucks_oil]

I think it's more complicated than having just one bad move. Like if you had Wallstedt you'd have a much better chance to get a proven good goalie in a trade. If you had Zegras you'd have the missing piece in top6 or could trade him for a top defender. Yamamoto's contract cost at least what you would've got for Kostin, which could've been used e.g. to get retention to a new contract if Kostin himself wasn't kept. Some extra millions to Nurse and some others probably meant lesser players in some places (e.g. 3 million could already make a difference between Ceci and someone like Ekholm) etc. So it could've been worse, but also better.

Wallstedt batted 0.908 in significant AHL time this year. Highly touted, he is: 1) clearly not ready, and 2) still highly touted enough that he's worth more to keep than to trade IMO. Is his trade value right now really higher than Bourgault? And if Bougault emerges on our 2nd or 3rd line next year when we need an ELC? Jury is still out on this particular criticism of yours.

Zegras vs Broberg: at the moment you obviously take Zegras, how confident are you that it doesn't change by year end? And are we really going to 2nd guess every draft pick? That's not productive IMO.

Kostin's lost value was what?... maybe a 5th round pick once the whole world knew we weren't signing him. You can criticize Holland for publicizing that, but going public could easily have been Holland's last chess move to confirm if Kostin's agent was just bluffing... obviously Kostin cared more about the paycheque than sticking with McDrai. C'est la vie. It was certainly an interesting career move for him.

On Nurse... $3M delta is not based in reality. Consensus is $2M above fair value. Your point stands we could use that $2M + Ceci's contract for an upgrade.

 

[bucks_oil]

I agree with some points, but do think you leave out some moves that seem bad at the moment. We'll also see how it continues with Nuge, Hyman and Kane. Nuge had a great regular season, but has worse years behind so hopefully it continues well. Hyman has been fine, but the term is long so it can start biting back, we'll see. What I mean is it's easier to make these contracts with term and thus maybe pay the price later. Kane was great when he came, but wasn't worth his salary last season. Yeah injuries and all, but too early to say if this will be a good or bad contract.

Yes... but taking longer contracts with term IS A TOOL to concentrate value and available cap space in a window.

It's no different than trading picks for rentals or older vets.

That's my point... Holland for all his faults, has actively managed this roster into the point of contention. Chia could never have done this. No GM gets it perfect, you've got to grind and tweak and make mistakes that at least are correctable.

If Holland could dump Foegele or Kulak now and go with youth... that would be the final bold move this roster would need... you dump one of those guys now, you save that cap for the deadline and you can afford TWO $4.5M players who are better than either of those guys.

That would be my final wish for this season:
1) Dump Kulak --> give ice to Broberg
2) Dump Foegele --> give ice to Lavoie or Hamblin, or Malone, or... it really doesn't matter.
3) Sign Bouchard to a three year bridge at $5M
4) Have roughly $12M in cap space for the deadline!!! Trade for whomever you want. An upgrade on Ceci, a true shutdown 3C, a goalie... maybe all three!

 

[Whyme]

Wallstedt batted 0.908 in significant AHL time this year. Highly touted, he is: 1) clearly not ready, and 2) still highly touted enough that he's worth more to keep than to trade IMO. Is his trade value right now really higher than Bourgault? And if Bougault emerges on our 2nd or 3rd line next year when we need an ELC? Jury is still out on this particular criticism of yours.

Zegras vs Broberg: at the moment you obviously take Zegras, how confident are you that it doesn't change by year end? And are we really going to 2nd guess every draft pick? That's not productive IMO.

Kostin's lost value was what?... maybe a 5th round pick once the whole world knew we weren't signing him. You can criticize Holland for publicizing that, but going public could easily have been Holland's last chess move to confirm if Kostin's agent was just bluffing... obviously Kostin cared more about the paycheque than sticking with McDrai. C'est la vie. It was certainly an interesting career move for him.

On Nurse... $3M delta is not based in reality. Consensus is $2M above fair value. Your point stands we could use that $2M + Ceci's contract for an upgrade.

Quickly:

1. After a tougher start Wallstedt had a solid season, also beat the other (experienced) goalie clearly. I'm sure he'd had clearly more trade value for a top goalie compared to Bourgault.

2. We can only say that Zegras and Wallstedt would have more value now. Of course things can change, but by the same standards we can't say that e.g. Nuge, Hyman and Kane have good contracts as things can always change.

3. We don't need to second guess after every pick, but when the team goes against what fans and most see as a better prospect in 1st rounds there's a valid reason to look back. Some defended Broberg over Zegras by saying the Oilers need a defender more. It's several years and Broberg still isn't helping the team and has clearly less value now. Bourgault was supposed to bring almost immediate help, but it doesn't look like a faster path compared to Wallstedt.

4. I said Nurse and some other contracts for the three million. So not just Nurse.

 

[duul]

It's one catastrophic mistake... and as above, the player didn't do Holland any favors.

Good management will get out of contracts quickly, agree... but your expectations of "quickly" might not be realistic. It's understandable you are impatient given the compressed timeline to winning (man wouldn't a Drai extension go a LONG way to relieving some of that timeline pressure?).

But getting out of a horrendously bad UFA contract rarely happens in less than 400 calendar days. Campbell needs to give Holland a little help here.

Going to spend a few minutes going through his transaction history while I drink my coffee. Let's see.

Signings that I find to be troublesome:

Chiasson 2.1 x 2
Kassian 3.2 x 4
Archibald 1.5 x 2
Turris 1.65 x 2
Foegele 2.75 x 3
Nurse 9.25 x 8
Campbell 5 x 5
Puljujarvi 3 x 1
Yamamoto 3.1 x 2

Trades that I find to be troublesome:

Athanasiou for two 2nd's
Keith for Jones + 3rd


The two most horrendous come in the forms of having to fix mistakes he made with Kassian and Yamamoto. To get rid of both of these players we had to give away Kostin, trade down in the first round, and give away a 2nd and 3rd round pick, and there's more of this to come.

I admit his trades are definitely acceptable for the most part. Ekholm was a huge ask, and giving away two 1sts plus Barrie seems extreme at this point given how we saw him play in the playoffs. We can see Provorov got moved for a 1st and a 2nd, and most importantly, a player like Barrie was not included. Barrie is a solid defenceman who has a serious value. Solid NHL player, good 2nd pairing guy. Ekholm is a great player but Provorov came in and a way cheaper price, most notably that Columbus didn't also have to move one of their solid defencemen in exchange to get him.

We are not in a position to acquire a guy like Ekholm or Provorov without adding salary because of the aforementioned contracts signed above. Every guy gets paid a little too much for a little too long. Some guys get paid way too much for way too long.

We can see the RNH and Hyman deals as being acceptable. At the time they were both seen as steals, but are they really? RNH took a 'team friendly' deal, put up 100 points, but what does he bring in the playoffs when games matter? Absolutely nothing. What about Hyman? They both wilted completely when we needed them. I would consider it a failure of Holland to be incapable of identifying players who can bring it when it actually matters. We don't give a f*** about the regular season anymore. We want playoff wins.

Whoever runs the pro scouting and drafting departments in Vegas needs to be studied. Whoever in their management group who identified who to draft in the expansion and who to trade for needs to be interviewed and learned from. Holland is totally useless in a lot of ways that the modern NHL requires you to excel at.

 

[bucks_oil]

Going to spend a few minutes going through his transaction history while I drink my coffee. Let's see.

Signings that I find to be troublesome:

Chiasson 2.1 x 2
Kassian 3.2 x 4
Archibald 1.5 x 2
Turris 1.65 x 2
Foegele 2.75 x 3
Nurse 9.25 x 8
Campbell 5 x 5
Puljujarvi 3 x 1
Yamamoto 3.1 x 2

Trades that I find to be troublesome:

Athanasiou for two 2nd's
Keith for Jones + 3rd


The two most horrendous come in the forms of having to fix mistakes he made with Kassian and Yamamoto. To get rid of both of these players we had to give away Kostin, trade down in the first round, and give away a 2nd and 3rd round pick, and there's more of this to come.

I admit his trades are definitely acceptable for the most part. Ekholm was a huge ask, and giving away two 1sts plus Barrie seems extreme at this point given how we saw him play in the playoffs. We can see Provorov got moved for a 1st and a 2nd, and most importantly, a player like Barrie was not included. Barrie is a solid defenceman who has a serious value. Solid NHL player, good 2nd pairing guy. Ekholm is a great player but Provorov came in and a way cheaper price, most notably that Columbus didn't also have to move one of their solid defencemen in exchange to get him.

We are not in a position to acquire a guy like Ekholm or Provorov without adding salary because of the aforementioned contracts signed above. Every guy gets paid a little too much for a little too long. Some guys get paid way too much for way too long.

We can see the RNH and Hyman deals as being acceptable. At the time they were both seen as steals, but are they really? RNH took a 'team friendly' deal, put up 100 points, but what does he bring in the playoffs when games matter? Absolutely nothing. What about Hyman? They both wilted completely when we needed them. I would consider it a failure of Holland to be incapable of identifying players who can bring it when it actually matters. We don't give a f*** about the regular season anymore. We want playoff wins.

Whoever runs the pro scouting and drafting departments in Vegas needs to be studied. Whoever in their management group who identified who to draft in the expansion and who to trade for needs to be interviewed and learned from. Holland is totally useless in a lot of ways that the modern NHL requires you to excel at.

It's sorta exasperating to debate with you. Everything is with a negative (I'd argue irrationally so) lens.

Examples:
1) we are talking about the here and the now. You listed 9 contracts you didn't like. 5-7 of them were short term. More importantly 6 of them are not on the team, and not on the cap. The other three, I generally agree... my points are well documented
2) RNH signed a contract that would be "good value" for a 60 point center/winger. THEN he went and scored 100 points. He has 25 points in 28 games in our last two playoff seasons, 11 of those points at EV. To you that is "absolutely nothing". If that isn't "negative schema", I don't know what is.
3) Pfft... Vegas. They were given a fantasy draft to pluck low paid, low contract commitment, value from every team in the league. Seattle did the same and end up in the playoffs in year two. Did they both have visionary management, or is it a huge advantage to start with a blank roster and pluck off RFA-year talent from teams who can only protect 40% of their roster?
4) For this team, right now, I take Ekholm's experience over Provorov any day.
5) I was a huge Barrie defender, but for a guy who claims to care about playoff wins... you must be blushing when you read what you wrote. Seriously?
6) Keith is a first ballot HoF defender who sat in our room for a season and mentored our (potential franchise level) best d-man prospect for a season. That 3rd and soon-to-be Jones aren't even in the same league. You make that trade every day.

 

[Beerfish]

I disagree, or at least the examples you are giving are proving the counter point.

Which of those contracts are currently damaging us?

Ryan took a paycut to get to $900K. The exchange was a two year term. And in year two if he's not performing, his cap his is BELOW the buried threshold. Ryan is a vet utility player that doesn't hurt you. He's signed below the buried threshold, he's not a problem.
Minimum NHL Salary & Buried Cap Hit | Puckpedia

Kulak and Ceci are both middle pairing capable players who the Edmonton Oilers might decide to upgrade. Until we find that upgrade (from a team going in a different direction, or whatever) they are completely useful guys who are NOT overpaid. Kulak for his part was one of our best defensemen in the playoffs. Ceci, when fully healthy, was our 2nd best defender in 2022. The ONLY reason that these guys are coming up in conversation is that our actual cap structure has so few places where we can save money.

Yamamoto: is a perfect example of active management to get out of a jam. Yamamoto was signed as a 20 goal scorer, who'd had stints (DRY line) of PPG play. He was 23 and signed a two year prove-it deal at $3.1. He then went on to have a major concussion that also resulted in neck issues... after one substandard season, he was attached to a guy who we had done our diligence on and determined there was no realistic way to sign him at what we felt it was worth... another shrewd business move. We made the call that Kostin was not worth $2M to us, so we jettisoned him with a slightly problematic $3.1M in cap for an unhealthy player. Problem solved.

Kassian: is a great example of a bad contract recognized and dealt with. Chiarelli would have obstinately kept Kassian on McDavid's wing... you know that. Tambellini would still be asking others for advice and sitting on his hands. Holland made a mistake and was PROACTIVE. Kassian is long gone and has ZERO impact on our cap today.

And because of that, after several years of decent management... our cap situation is getting much healthier:

We are out of LTIR

We are one year away from having ZERO dead cap

The oilers have a grand total of 12 of 24 players (about to be 14 with Bouch and McLeod) who are above the "bury with no penalty" threshold. Here they are:

Great contracts, underpaid relative to value: McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Kane, Hyman, Ekholm

Fair Value: Ceci, Kulak, Skinner

Overpaid: Nurse, Foegele

Horrendously Crippling: Campbell

Everyone else, which includes some solid role players and rookies does not matter to our cap... they can be buried and replaced at will.

If Campbell were Toronto-level Campbell, we aren't even having this conversation. The rest of the roster (save Nurse who we still want to keep and Foegele) is solid value

The object of the game is to not give out bad contracts and then have to scramble or overpay to get rid of them. Sorry I am not patting Holland on the head for Kassian or Yamamoto. He was the author of both of those issues. Yamo, like a half dozen players before him scored 20 solely becasue he was handed top two line minutes with the best players in the world, once moved from them he was a total non entity.

It's great that you like ceci and kulak half this forum wants to move on from them.

Hyman is not great value, sorry look at the term.

McDaivd and Draisaitl? not Holland.

One year away from having zero dead cap? Well we are also going to be paying 3.5 or so for Brown then as well.

This team needs to win a cup. Our biggest issue (goaltending) is being ignored by the management like it was with smith and koskinen.

Ryan? Again, no reason in the whole world to give him two years, none whatsoever. He is an older bottom of the roster player not difficult to replace he is at the take what we offer part of his career, like Janmark.

We have been scrounging for nickels for years cap wise now so the old excuse of 'oh it is only a million we can bury it!' comment does not wash with me.

 

[GOilers88]

Going to spend a few minutes going through his transaction history while I drink my coffee. Let's see.

Signings that I find to be troublesome:

Chiasson 2.1 x 2
Kassian 3.2 x 4
Archibald 1.5 x 2
Turris 1.65 x 2
Foegele 2.75 x 3
Nurse 9.25 x 8
Campbell 5 x 5
Puljujarvi 3 x 1
Yamamoto 3.1 x 2

Trades that I find to be troublesome:

Athanasiou for two 2nd's
Keith for Jones + 3rd


The two most horrendous come in the forms of having to fix mistakes he made with Kassian and Yamamoto. To get rid of both of these players we had to give away Kostin, trade down in the first round, and give away a 2nd and 3rd round pick, and there's more of this to come.

I admit his trades are definitely acceptable for the most part. Ekholm was a huge ask, and giving away two 1sts plus Barrie seems extreme at this point given how we saw him play in the playoffs. We can see Provorov got moved for a 1st and a 2nd, and most importantly, a player like Barrie was not included. Barrie is a solid defenceman who has a serious value. Solid NHL player, good 2nd pairing guy. Ekholm is a great player but Provorov came in and a way cheaper price, most notably that Columbus didn't also have to move one of their solid defencemen in exchange to get him.

We are not in a position to acquire a guy like Ekholm or Provorov without adding salary because of the aforementioned contracts signed above. Every guy gets paid a little too much for a little too long. Some guys get paid way too much for way too long.

We can see the RNH and Hyman deals as being acceptable. At the time they were both seen as steals, but are they really? RNH took a 'team friendly' deal, put up 100 points, but what does he bring in the playoffs when games matter? Absolutely nothing. What about Hyman? They both wilted completely when we needed them. I would consider it a failure of Holland to be incapable of identifying players who can bring it when it actually matters. We don't give a f*** about the regular season anymore. We want playoff wins.

Whoever runs the pro scouting and drafting departments in Vegas needs to be studied. Whoever in their management group who identified who to draft in the expansion and who to trade for needs to be interviewed and learned from. Holland is totally useless in a lot of ways that the modern NHL requires you to excel at.

Vegas, like Seattle, was widely criticized for the way they handled the expansion draft. It wasn’t until Vegas made a run to the SCF that people suddenly changed their tune and started calling them brilliant for their selections.

Seattle was even more widely lambasted for their expansion draft, especially after their first season. Then because of how they turned it around last year, people are once again giving them praise for smart decisions.

People who flip flop based on hindsight don’t deserve to be having legitimate discussions.

Also worth noting that Vegas missed completely last season, people said their aggressive management style was coming back to bite them in the ass, and they hit the season and playoffs with an extreme question mark in net. Maybe the Oilers should dump some players, go through a PR nightmare by burning bridges with a key player or two, miss the playoffs this year, and run into next season with 2 or 3 complete unknowns in the crease. Then we can applaud them for their savvy management.

 

[Fourier]

I agree with some points, but do think you leave out some moves that seem bad at the moment. We'll also see how it continues with Nuge, Hyman and Kane. Nuge had a great regular season, but has worse years behind so hopefully it continues well. Hyman has been fine, but the term is long so it can start biting back, we'll see. What I mean is it's easier to make these contracts with term and thus maybe pay the price later. Kane was great when he came, but wasn't worth his salary last season. Yeah injuries and all, but too early to say if this will be a good or bad contract.

If the cap increases as expected $5.5M is what a decent 2nd line/ 3rd line tweener will be getting. By the midpoint of the Nuge/Hyman deals the cap could be over $100M. Kane's deal ends the year after McDavid's deal is up. The buyout on the last year is small at $1.33M so there is very little risk in any of these contracts.

 

[duul]

If the cap increases as expected $5.5M is what a decent 2nd line/ 3rd line tweener will be getting. By the midpoint of the Nuge/Hyman deals the cap could be over $100M. Kane's deal ends the year after McDavid's deal is up. The buyout on the last year is small at $1.33M so there is very little risk in any of these contracts.

This far down the line Draisaitl and McDavid won't be playing for us and our window will have passed us by.

 

[Fourier]

This far down the line Draisaitl and McDavid won't be playing for us and our window will have passed us by.

And yet you believe that trading Nurse or signing a $.775M player instead of Brown this year would encourage them to stay. Why do you even follow this team if you believe what you wrote.

 

[Whyme]

If the cap increases as expected $5.5M is what a decent 2nd line/ 3rd line tweener will be getting. By the midpoint of the Nuge/Hyman deals the cap could be over $100M. Kane's deal ends the year after McDavid's deal is up. The buyout on the last year is small at $1.33M so there is very little risk in any of these contracts.

Even if the cap increases to some extent it's not like the extra millions couldn't be used elsewhere. The cap increase just works as an excuse for bad or questionable contracts as one can say "look it's not so bad now". It's still better if the contract is less or with maybe less term, cap increase doesn't change that. For sure longer contracts feel slightly more digestable, but better contracts are better contracts no matter what the cap is.

 

[Fourier]

Even if the cap increases to some extent it's not like the extra millions couldn't be used elsewhere. The cap increase just works as an excuse for bad or questionable contracts as one can say "look it's not so bad now". It's still better if the contract is less or with maybe less term, cap increase doesn't change that. For sure longer contracts feel slightly more digestable, but better contracts are better contracts no matter what the cap is.

This is exactly the opposite of how you should manage your cap especially with a good team in a rising cap period. By going short term you pretty much always pay full market value or more for every contract. That makes it virtually impossible to maintain a winning team. Colorado for example would not have won the cup had they followed the plan you laid out.

Under this plan today you would be paying McDavid $14-15M, Draisaitl $12.5M, Nuge $7M, Hyman $7M. That is close to $9-10M more on the cap than you would be right now.

The CBA allows GM's multiple ways to get out of long term deals. This is especially true in a rising cap environment where shedding cap has less cost.