Value of: Oilers need a Goalie

[Hunter368]

Lavoie likely doesn't move the needle.

Chiarot is touted to be going for a 1st + small add (Savard wasn't as high on the TDL board last year and got a 1st + a 3rd. Actually a 4th rd pick was also part of the package to get the double retention.)

So if Chiarot is seen as returning more than Savard (1, 3, & 4th), we're probably looking at 1 + late 2nd.
Considering Mtl takes a 4.5M salary dump back + send over Allen for 2 years, that's likely the bridge there between 1+2nd for 1+1 (value wise).

Two late firsts in terms of value makes sense. (that's why i threw the conditional 3 just in case.)

As per the bolded:

TSN Trade Bait: David Savard takes top spot as Nashville Predators push for playoffs - TSN.ca

Written March 31st, 2021

Savard was #1 on the trade board as per TSN's Frank Seravalli on March 31st, 2021

 

[ManofSteel55]

As per the bolded:

TSN Trade Bait: David Savard takes top spot as Nashville Predators push for playoffs - TSN.ca

Written March 31st, 2021

Savard was #1 on the trade board as per TSN's Frank Seravalli on March 31st, 2021

Seravalli has really come into his own with things like this. If you look at that list even after it happened, most would think "no way does Savard pull in more than Hall, Palmeiri, etc", yet there he was, the biggest trade deadline target last year.

I'll try to remember to find this again when people start up with the "but Savard got a 1st so x defenseman will get one".

 

[ManofSteel55]

They have some promising own prospects and products, wich how you build a team, so in bottom 6, they maybe, just maybe needs one more good forward. Benson MacLeod Marody has to be tried first, before giving up.

On defense, yes. Its not just one goalie needed, one more LD (now when Lagesson is flushed by Tippet).
But theybdont need 3 defensemen. They probably neess just one good LD, that would cut off bad vibes in the D, that also makes the goalie better. I wont say 4K is thw reason for oilers struggling, but he is not the 3rs pair anchor they need, that backs up Barries bad defense.

Borgault should not be traded, i would trade broberg before him.
If they trade him, they should take a kings ransom because hes a given yop6 NHLer.
You dont throwing out that from the window, and def. Not adding a 1st to that, for one good D, an Okish Goalie, and a 3rd(!). You are very colored by your team.
Oilers would lose so much future on that trade.

Very bad proposal.

I would look for Kubalik, Namestnikov on bottom 6, or another find.
Ullmark on Goal.
And a good skating defensive reliable LD. I would dangle Barrie and Kassian, and MAYBE Yamamoto if there was a good return. But Yam has a fantastic contract, and is a good penalty drawer.

Good points.

I think Barrie will be traded at some point for a shutdown defenseman, and that will help to stabalize things. Barrie is elite at what he does well, but Bouchard is as well, and for cheaper, so Barrie will be out sooner than later. Barrie and KK for a 2nd pair LD and a more traditional 3rd pair RD so we can bump Keith to 3LD. I love Keith on the team fwiw, just would prefer him to be our 3LD (and dislike the cap hit obviously).
Nurse -Bouchard
??? - Ceci
Keith - ???
Russell

 

[UrbanImpact]

Legit had to check if this thread is new or if was bumped from 5 years ago.

 

[UrbanImpact]

Good points.

I think Barrie will be traded at some point for a shutdown defenseman, and that will help to stabalize things. Barrie is elite at what he does well, but Bouchard is as well, and for cheaper, so Barrie will be out sooner than later. Barrie and KK for a 2nd pair LD and a more traditional 3rd pair RD so we can bump Keith to 3LD. I love Keith on the team fwiw, just would prefer him to be our 3LD (and dislike the cap hit obviously).
Nurse -Bouchard
??? - Ceci
Keith - ???
Russell

The book is out on Barrie. Nobody is going to take him and that contract without a nice sweetner from Edmonton. If you want the other team to add a good shutdown Dman then the price goes even higher.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Barrie and a 1st. I mean I know ppl overrate their players but nobody trading a shutdown D of any kind for Barrie.

 

[ManofSteel55]

The book is out on Barrie. Nobody is going to take him and that contract without a nice sweetner from Edmonton. If you want the other team to add a good shutdown Dman then the price goes even higher.

That's a bit ridiculous. Barrie at his current contract (4.5M) doesn't have negative value by any stretch. He's still among the top PP defensemen in the NHL. The only reason people are so down on Barrie is that he had an awful season in Toronto when they didn't use him properly and he struggled because of it.

The shutdown defenseman part might have to come in another deal. I don't see any teams out there that could use a PP quarterback and have a surplus of 2nd pair LD.

 

[UrbanImpact]

That's a bit ridiculous. Barrie at his current contract (4.5M) doesn't have negative value by any stretch. He's still among the top PP defensemen in the NHL. The only reason people are so down on Barrie is that he had an awful season in Toronto when they didn't use him properly and he struggled because of it.

The shutdown defenseman part might have to come in another deal. I don't see any teams out there that could use a PP quarterback and have a surplus of 2nd pair LD.

Barrie has one of the worst underlying numbers. He is a liability 5 on 5. He would need to play with an elite team to be even average 5 on 5.

It will be difficult to trade him to a team that is willing to pay a PP specialist 4.5 mil for 3 more years.

I dunno if its negative value or not but Oilers definitely goofed up singing him to that contract. Bouchard can do everything Barrie is doing at an ELC contract.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Barrie has one of the worst underlying numbers. He is a liability 5 on 5. He would need to play with an elite team to be even average 5 on 5.

It will be difficult to trade him to a team that is willing to pay a PP specialist 4.5 mil for 3 more years.

I dunno if its negative value or not but Oilers definitely goofed up singing him to that contract. Bouchard can do everything Barrie is doing at an ELC contract.

All offensive defensemen have bad underlying numbers, but yes, he isn't the best 5 on 5. He is also elite on the powerplay, and most teams best PP guy isn't the best 5 on 5. There are plenty of teams that would have significantly better powerplays with Barrie on it. I suspect Edmonton wouldn't feel losing him that badly because Bouchard can take over for him, but not every team has that luxury.

 

[UrbanImpact]

All offensive defensemen have bad underlying numbers, but yes, he isn't the best 5 on 5. He is also elite on the powerplay, and most teams best PP guy isn't the best 5 on 5. There are plenty of teams that would have significantly better powerplays with Barrie on it. I suspect Edmonton wouldn't feel losing him that badly because Bouchard can take over for him, but not every team has that luxury.

Most teams also run 1 D powerplay system now as this has analytically shown to be the best format for a PP.

The PP specialist is becoming a dinosaur and soon to be extinct in the league.

Most teams will have a top Dman who of course can play that 1 Dman on the powerplay without being just a PP specialist.

Genuinely curious which teams Barrie can play for where he would over take their current Top powerplay Dman.

This narrows downs the list extremely low to teams that would even be interested in Barrie.

 

[McJedi]

I'm not certain that MAF would be too expensive to acquire. He's in the last year of a deal on a team that is not contending at all. Options for the Blackhawks are to keep in a lost season or trade him for any asset.

Keeping MAF in a lost season isn’t bad. Chicago doesn’t have a first round pick so no reason to tank. If he gets them wins and fans in the stands, that’s better than any ole draft pick.

 

[McJedi]

I think it's gonna be ullmark. Doesn't make much sense for Holland to overpay for a geogiev type if ullmark is around for the taking.

What do folks think an Ullmark trade to the Oil look like? Obviously Koskinen goes the other way. What else does Edmonton add? Assume no retention on either goalie.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

Keeping him in a lost season isn’t bad. They don’t have a first round pick so no reason to tank. If he gets them wins and fans in the stands, that’s better than any ole draft pick.

I forgot they don't have their 1st. I don't think the fans part is an issue. Chicago has historically been really good from an attendance perspective. Pre-covid, they lead the league for 12 years with average home game attendance. This year, they are 6th.

2021-2022 NHL Attendance - National Hockey League - ESPN

Either way, I don't think a 1st would be needed. Hopefully a mid pick and a B prospect.

 

[McJedi]

I forgot they don't have their 1st. I don't think the fans part is an issue. Chicago has historically been really good from an attendance perspective. Pre-covid, they lead the league for 12 years with average home game attendance. This year, they are 6th.

2021-2022 NHL Attendance - National Hockey League - ESPN

Either way, I don't think a 1st would be needed. Hopefully a mid pick and a B prospect.

Not enough of a reason for Chicago to trade him. Just play him in that circumstance. Chicago’s sellout streak ended this year.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

Not enough of a reason for Chicago to trade him. Just play him in that circumstance. Chicago’s sellout streak ended this year.

I don't believe you're the authority to determine whether or not it's enough reason for Chicago to trade him, but you could be right. An extra 100 fans vs. an asset(s) for a player who is not re-signing is a debate for Blackhawks fans and their GM.

 

[McJedi]

I don't believe you're the authority to determine whether or not it's enough reason for Chicago to trade him, but you could be right. An extra 100 fans vs. an asset(s) for a player who is not re-signing is a debate for Blackhawks fans and their GM.

Who knows? Neither of us. Maybe he does get moved at some retention level for Koskinen, a 2nd and B prospect like Lavoie. Wouldn’t shock me. That seems possible. I think Chicago would definitely shop that offer to see if it can be beat. Or Chicago may keep him since he’s playing better of late and they are developing positively as a squad.

 

[ManofSteel55]

What do folks think an Ullmark trade to the Oil look like? Obviously Koskinen goes the other way. What else does Edmonton add? Assume no retention on either goalie.

Might need a 3rd team to take Koskinen if the reason for the trade is Rask signing. But I have no idea what the value is. A 1st for Ullmark, then ship Koskinen to one of the few teams where he would be an upgrade (Buffalo maybe) along with a mid round pick for a depth forward on an expiring contract. Like, Koskinen and a 4th to Buffalo for Cagguila or somebody of that ilk with little value.

 

[bernmeister]

On the other hand one could point out the Rangers can't keep Georgeiv (a pending RFA) under the cap next year and are going to have to unload him anyway. So how much leverage can they really have?

My point is Holland has some options at least. There are other goalies out there. Maybe instead of overpaying for a mediocre goaltender the Oilers could give Konovalov a chance and see what he can do.

we have plenty of leverage if someone wants quality netminder NOW at a reasonable price NOW.
Another reason to not piss away value w/self rental

 

[ManofSteel55]

we have plenty of leverage if someone wants quality netminder NOW at a reasonable price NOW.
Another reason to not piss away value w/self rental

I don't think we are suggesting that the Rangers should give away Georgiev. I think we are suggesting that the price to acquire is all of a sudden too high. Should we have jumped on him being available sooner if the price was lower? Yeah, probably, but that doesn't mean we need to overpay today.

The Oilers goalie situation rests largely on Mike Smith right now unfortunately. Nobody knows if his most recent injury will keep him out long, but I expect Holland won't panic as long as he's got Smith looking to be back in a few games. Now, if he falls apart (literally or metaphorically), then I expect Holland may be a bit more urgent.

 

[bucks_oil]

The book is out on Barrie. Nobody is going to take him and that contract without a nice sweetner from Edmonton. If you want the other team to add a good shutdown Dman then the price goes even higher.

Sorry but this is laughable. $4.5M for literally the #1 scoring D-man last year... and it wasn't a one time thing. He's one of the most consistent offensive defensemen of his generation (8 times >0.5ppg, 5 times > 0.6ppg, 3 times > 0.75ppg.

The Oilers may have a need to trade offense for defense on the back end, but that doesn't mean other GMs with defensively constructed teams aren't looking for a 2nd pairing guy with absolutely elite PP QB skills.

 

[Chayos]

I think Chariot Value is a late 1st+3rd (50% retained)

Allen value is probably a 2nd. So you’ll have to add to make it work

It was to much at just a first and now its a 1st a 3rd? Go talk to other teams for this as that is atrocious.

 

[bucks_oil]

we have plenty of leverage if someone wants quality netminder NOW at a reasonable price NOW.
Another reason to not piss away value w/self rental

Sorry when did Georgiev become a quality netminder? He's never had the stats to back that up. 0.910, 0.905, 0.908... that's not a quality netminder. It ranges from "replacement level" to "average at best".

For reference the NHL average has been 0.910, 0.908 and 0.910 over those same seasons.

 

[bernmeister]

Well I know it’s been said 1000x.

Carey price is the Goalie that’s make the oilers serious Stanley cup pretendant.
we can retain 2m$ and take a bad contract

2m not enuf
full pop down to 5.25 may not be enuf
prob need Price to go to team A at full retention
and then
third team to eat another 1.5 before flipping to Oil
this is gonna add up and cost, cost, cost

Rangers have enough good players they can shed salary elsewhere if they need to. Or trade his rights around the draft. They are not in much of a bind with Geo.

oilers have limited options and one of them is they can always try a no name if they’d like. The rangers did that vs the Avs a few weeks ago. Was about like putting two pylons in front of the net. Rangers got demolished at home in that game.

Due to Fox + Zib new deals = $$$$$$$$ much more cap hit, Rangers do not really have any room whatsoever beginning next season til after following season when they have ability to deal Trouba's 8m per,

That does not mean Oil poach him for less than full fair market rate at min.
Oil are not the only suitors.
I'd rather go to Kraken or elsewhere if nec.

The issue is finding the retention that works. $2M isn't enough on Price, he's still overpaid for what he can bring at that amount. So if they can figure out how much it would take in retention for Edmonton to be interested, and balance that with how much Montreal can retain and what that might cost, it could make sense. But finding that middle ground is difficult and is likely the reason Price to Edmonton won't happen. Edmonton doesn't want an aging $8M goalie. Montreal doesn't want to eat 50% of Price's cap hit for him to play somewhere else. I could definitely see Holland interested, but figuring out how much retention works for both sides is key. Koskinen would also need to be a part of the deal for cap reasons, and whatever salary Edmonton brings in basically has to cost nothing more than what we have on the books right now.

For example:

If Price has 4M retention, that would be 6.5M cap hit coming in, Edmonton would need to find 6.5M in cap hit to send out. So something around Koskinen and Barrie (9M total) and futures for Price (6.5M) and Chairot (2.5M) would work, but figuring out what the difference in futures is worth is a major issue. Montreal fans will want multiple firsts due to including Chairot and retaining 5M for this year and 4M for the rest of Price's contract. Edmonton shouldn't blow the bank on a gamble for Price.

Agree Price is not happening.
Every scenario is too expensive, and you prob need
1. MON to eat half
2. 3rd team to at least do another 1.5
this ^ = super expensive

I'm not certain that MAF would be too expensive to acquire. He's in the last year of a deal on a team that is not contending at all. Options for the Blackhawks are to keep in a lost season or trade him for any asset.

Guess again.
Oil are desperate
CHI is not
EDM pays demand or rolls with what it has.

Georgiev is awful and would be a downgrade from Koskinen/Smith/Skinner. The only person who thinks that Georgiev is a starter is Georgiev.

This statement is entirely refuted by last night's game.
Attempt to drive down the price is rejected.

I think it's gonna be ullmark. Doesn't make much sense for Holland to overpay for a geogiev type if ullmark is around for the taking.

not so sure Ullmark is available.
but for sure, he is gonna require signif overpay

Rangers will take full value for Geo but not require overpay

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

Wonder what the chances are that Ken Holland "kicks the tires" on trying to bring Jimmy Howard out of retirement.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

2m not enuf
full pop down to 5.25 may not be enuf
prob need Price to go to team A at full retention
and then
third team to eat another 1.5 before flipping to Oil
this is gonna add up and cost, cost, cost



Due to Fox + Zib new deals = $$$$$$$$ much more cap hit, Rangers do not really have any room whatsoever beginning next season til after following season when they have ability to deal Trouba's 8m per,

That does not mean Oil poach him for less than full fair market rate at min.
Oil are not the only suitors.
I'd rather go to Kraken or elsewhere if nec.



Agree Price is not happening.
Every scenario is too expensive, and you prob need
1. MON to eat half
2. 3rd team to at least do another 1.5
this ^ = super expensive



Guess again.
Oil are desperate
CHI is not
EDM pays demand or rolls with what it has.



This statement is entirely refuted by last night's game.
Attempt to drive down the price is rejected.



not so sure Ullmark is available.
but for sure, he is gonna require signif overpay

Rangers will take full value for Geo but not require overpay

Why would Ullmark require overpay. Boston already has 3 goalies.