Seravalli: Official JT Miller Trade Thread - NEW Update (1/25/22) - Rangers Interest "Next Level"

[Ledge And Dairy]

That's a HF concept
The goal is to win the cup. As been noted they did it back to back

The correct term would be they paid premium and it paid off

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Like I said, we can agree to disagree.

I mean you haven't exactly put up a counter argument on why you disagree but ok

 

[Nucker42]

Thank you for calling it moronic. Also your salary example is in no way in good comparison.

You also fail to address the Lundkvist + 1st + 2nd offer, which is essentially right in your ballpark value depending on how one values Lundkvist.

I did have interest in Lundkvist but after thinking about it I think that just makes the Canucks d too small. Like the player but not the match.

If nyr fans don’t want to deal Schneider then I don’t think there’s a match. I think he’s so obviously the choice with the Canucks match.

The Rangers are extremely deep and wouldn’t have any issues covering the loss.

I think if I’m the Canucks I would consider something like:

Kratsov, Schneider and a 1st….

Schneider fills a huge team need. The 1st is essential as the Canucks have dealt so many picks over the years and you take a flyer on Kratsov.

 

[AKL]

I mean you haven't exactly put up a counter argument on why you disagree but ok

If you want to start a poll thread we can talk about it there.

 

[cwede]

I think New York is by far the best team to trade Miller to.
New York: JT Miller (50% retained)
Vancouver: Kravtsov Schneider Chytil
I would add any of Pearson, Poolman, Hamonic or Schenn and retain 50% on any of them if New York was interested.

a) NYR moving Schneider extremely unlikely,
b) in general, this longtime NYR follower highly doubts a reunion with Miller, perhaps these reports are driven by leaks intended to spike interest
c) if NYR send out too much youth, they probably need some back, maybe less-sure-things, like maybe a guy like Zlodeyev

 

[blankall]

What past transactions for a top 20 scorer are you basing this on. Just interested in how you came to this conclusion.

JT Miller - currently 30th in scoring.
2020/21 - 43rd in scoring.
2019/20 - 17th
2018/19 - 130th

One shortened season of top 20 scoring is enough to make him a "top 20 scorer"? There have been many players traded who had one top 20 season for a late 1st plus prospect.

 

[Do you want ants]

I'm sorry but outside of Schneider, is Kratsov or Chytil supposed to hold significant value?

Chytil and Kratsov haven't done anything to maintain their value since being drafted - in fact, the value has likely dropped.

Regardless of what you think Kratsov/Chytil’s value is. I’m saying I’d rather spend them on something other than 1.5 years of Miller. I hope you get a massive overpayment for Miller, just not from the Rangers.

 

[FourRings]

If Vancouver is interested, it would make sense to deal Lafreniere as Miller's age lines up with that of Zibanejad, Panarin, and Kreider and lets the Rangers be ultra competitive the next few seasons.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

If you want to start a poll thread we can talk about it there.

That's a lot of effort that I really couldn't be bothered to do so fair enough. Agree to disagree I guess

 

[KingDeathMetal]

This thread really shows who actually knows hockey v.s. guys who are obsessed about prospects/futures. I guess this board is called Hockey Futures so maybe that justifies people's obsessions with prospects and picks?

You just have to look at past deadline deals that were made and compare.

2020 NHL Deadline Notable Deals:
Goodrow for 1st
Coleman for 1st + Foote
Brady Skej for 1st
JGP for 1st + 2nd + 3rd (with conditions)

2021 NHL Deadline Notable Deals:
Mantha for Vrana + 1st + 2nd
Foligno for 1st + 4th
Palmieri/Zajac for 1st + 4th

JT Miller is by far better than ANY of these players on the list + he has another year left at a very cheap cap hit. If your package doesn't beat any of these offers, don't even bother commenting.

JT Miller should return a 3 1st round package... if your offer doesn't come close... don't bother. Kratsov and a late first? Please stop.

Please show me the deal for a player at Miller's comparable age, salary range and term, that returned anything more than a 22-31 range 1st rounder and a Top 50 prospect (which Kravtsov is despite all the bashing).

You're acting like it isn't a common experience for fans of players on the brink to be SUPER DEMANDING OF A TEAM'S TOP THREE PROSPECTS +, only to be let down at what they actually got dealt for.

Vancouver is getting a late first and a B+ prospect for Miller, at best. Maybe a 2nd thrown in. If you don't believe me, let's revisit after the deal is done. Because it's HFBoards and THIS - ALWAYS - HAPPENS.

I mean hey, does it happen for Zach Jones and a 1st? Sure, I could see that. The value there is not a whole lot different from Kravtsov and a 1st lol.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Schneider is not on the table for Miller.

He sure is

 

[Bondra slapshot]

This is the forum where anyone can be on the table simply because that person says so... so sure... yea why not, he's on the table!

 

[Canadian Canuck]

JT Miller - currently 30th in scoring.
2020/21 - 43rd in scoring.
2019/20 - 17th
2018/19 - 130th

One shortened season of top 20 scoring is enough to make him a "top 20 scorer"? There have been many players traded who had one top 20 season for a late 1st plus prospect.

Lmao he’s a different player than when he was in Tampa. You’re paying the price for current JT Miller who’s a top 20 scorer who can play anywhere in the lineup at any position and specials teams. He gets a 1st+Top prospect @ MINIMUM

 

[dman34]

If Vancouver is interested, it would make sense to deal Lafreniere as Miller's age lines up with that of Zibanejad, Panarin, and Kreider and lets the Rangers be ultra competitive the next few seasons.

I would take Laf and Nils. For JTM 2MM retained.

 

[AKL]

This is the forum where anyone can be on the table simply because that person says so... so sure... yea why not, he's on the table!

I think a lot of people with assets they want to sell underestimate how much some of the prospects are not on the table. The Wild bowed out of the Eichel sweepstakes because they weren't willing to part with Boldy and Rossi, so New York can absolutely say Schneider is off the table. They have plenty of other pieces that could get a deal done for Miller, easily. But fans are stubborn and think their piece should always get the other teams best asset.

 

[KingDeathMetal]

I think a lot of people with assets they want to sell underestimate how much some of the prospects are not on the table. The Wild bowed out of the Eichel sweepstakes because they weren't willing to part with Boldy and Rossi, so New York can absolutely say Schneider is off the table. They have plenty of other pieces that could get a deal done for Miller, easily. But fans are stubborn and think their piece should always get the other teams best asset.

Yep. Only a few years ago, Miller was a THROW IN PIECE in the Ryan McDonagh deal, all so NYR could acquire Libor Hajek, Brett Howden, and a 1st. And Miller was a 50-pt player at the time!

Fans always think the value of their players is another team's top prospect, and the truth is that you're far more likely to get additional picks and lower prospects, even for star players.

 

[thethirdhockeyman91]

If Vancouver is interested, it would make sense to deal Lafreniere as Miller's age lines up with that of Zibanejad, Panarin, and Kreider and lets the Rangers be ultra competitive the next few seasons.

Time to put down the bottle.

 

[jd22]

Yep. Only a few years ago, Miller was a THROW IN PIECE in the Ryan McDonagh deal, all so NYR could acquire Libor Hajek, Brett Howden, and a 1st. And Miller was a 50-pt player at the time!

Fans always think the value of their players is another team's top prospect, and the truth is that you're far more likely to get additional picks and lower prospects, even for star players.

What would you do if I told you players develop?

 

[Boondock]

My gosh it isn't eichel! Three 1st round picks? Haha! Even when those trades happen, reports were those teams overpay. People laughed at Toronto because they bid against themselves. People said Tampa overpaid, media people did. Don't sit here and say it Miller us getting eichel package. What is kaprizov, or connor McDavid get then?

homer much? - not exactly the same tier of player

 

[AKL]

What would you do if I told you players develop?

I don't think his point was that Miller is worth the same as he was a few years ago, I think it was more that even top players available in trades usually don't get the types of returns their fans want. I think his point was that McDonagh and Miller returned a 1st and two mediocre prospects that ultimately became nothing, so the idea that Miller is for sure going to return a 1st+two top prospects like Schneider, as an example, is out to lunch. I saw 1st+Lambos+Khusnutdinov earlier. It's pretty outrageous to expect a return like that. Doesn't really matter how good you think your player is.

For the record, isn't the official narrative that New York's deal was around Kravtsov? I'd think if a prospect like Schneider was involved, they would have mentioned him instead.

 

[jd22]

I don't think his point was that Miller is worth the same as he was a few years ago, I think it was more that even top players available in trades usually don't get the types of returns their fans want. I think his point was that McDonagh and Miller returned a 1st and two mediocre prospects that ultimately became nothing, so the idea that Miller is for sure going to return a 1st+two top prospects like Schneider, as an example, is out to lunch. I saw 1st+Lambos+Khusnutdinov earlier. It's pretty outrageous to expect a return like that. Doesn't really matter how good you think your player is.

Yes, fair enough. The prominent one for me springs to mind is when Pittsburgh acquired Hossa for, ultimately, not much.

It's also not a necessity (though would probably be advisable) for Rutherford et al to trade Miller, so if the value isn't there, they see where things stand next year.

 

[AKL]

Yes, fair enough. The prominent one for me springs to mind is when Pittsburgh acquired Hossa for, ultimately, not much.

It's also not a necessity (though would probably be advisable) for Rutherford et al to trade Miller, so if the value isn't there, they see where things stand next year.

Sure, but we usually find that when a player is in trade talks this much, they're going to be dealt at some point. Vancouver can weigh the value they can get now, with how much value they think they can get next year when he was only one playoff run on his contract. Usually value goes down in those circumstances. If your only focus is to get max value for him, your best bet is to trade him now, even if you can't get exactly what you want for him. If maximizing the return isn't the focus, they can certainly keep him and see what happens.

 

[Icebreakers]

I don't think his point was that Miller is worth the same as he was a few years ago, I think it was more that even top players available in trades usually don't get the types of returns their fans want. I think his point was that McDonagh and Miller returned a 1st and two mediocre prospects that ultimately became nothing, so the idea that Miller is for sure going to return a 1st+two top prospects like Schneider, as an example, is out to lunch. I saw 1st+Lambos+Khusnutdinov earlier. It's pretty outrageous to expect a return like that. Doesn't really matter how good you think your player is.

It all depends on the market.

Barclay Goodrow returned a first round pick.

Blake Coleman received a first round pick AND a former first round pick 8 months removed from when he was drafted (Nolan Foote).

Oh, and both were 1.5 year rentals. Same as Miller.

Are you saying Goodrow and Coleman are worth McDonagh and and Miller?

Tampa paid a premium because they thought it was their window to contend and they went all in. If you can get a PPG do it all player like miller for 2.6m if retained is unheard of.

If NY thinks their window is now, they will pull the trigger. Panarin, Zibanejad, Kreider are not young. Sure they have Fox, Laf, Kakko, Schneider, but outside of Fox they have not proved to be able to lead a team.

 

[jd22]

Sure, but we usually find that when a player is in trade talks this much, they're going to be dealt at some point. Vancouver can weigh the value they can get now, with how much value they think they can get next year when he was only one playoff run on his contract. Usually value goes down in those circumstances. If your only focus is to get max value for him, your best bet is to trade him now, even if you can't get exactly what you want for him. If maximizing the return isn't the focus, they can certainly keep him and see what happens.

Yes. Like I said, it would be preferable to trade him now as his new contract won't fit the Canucks cap structure.

Or - Boeser (and?) Horvat are traded and the Canucks keep Miller if he's amenable. I do think Boeser and Miller will be traded to try to get a handle on the runaway cap problem of Vancouver. It would be some 5d chess to trade Boeser to one of NYR's major competitors in the east, if they go that route, to try to up the pressure on NYR for Schneider.

It will be an interesting trade deadline and lead up to it, certainly.

 

[AKL]

It all depends on the market.

Barclay Goodrow returned a first round pick.

Blake Coleman received a first round pick AND a former first round pick 8 months removed from when he was drafted (Nolan Foote).

Oh, and both were 1.5 year rentals. Same as Miller.

Are you saying Goodrow and Coleman are worth McDonagh and and Miller?

Tampa paid a premium because they thought it was their window to contend and they went all in. If you can get a PPG do it all player like miller for 2.6m if retained is unheard of.

If NY thinks their window is now, they will pull the trigger. Panarin, Zibanejad, Kreider are not young. Sure they have Fox, Laf, Kakko, Schneider, but outside of Fox they have not proved to be able to lead a team.

Obviously it depends on the market, and with that being said, you have potentially a buyers market this year with guys like Miller, Giroux, Hertl, Pavelski all being available. And that's just for the top tier players. You'll have teams who are selling second tier assets as well, and some buyers may be more inclined to save their assets and go with those guys. So right off the bat the market isn't really in your favor at this point.

But you also can't just say "well Goodrow and Coleman returned 1sts, and Miller is way better than they are, so he should return 3 1sts" because what Coleman and Goodrow got doesn't matter and it's only a part of the rental picture.

No one is denying that you'll get a 1st+ for Miller. What people are taking exception to is the idea that the + has to be the absolute upper echelon of prospects, or that teams can't have prospects that are just simply off the table. It's more often than not, not the case.