Seravalli: Official JT Miller Trade Thread - NEW Update (1/25/22) - Rangers Interest "Next Level"

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Please show me the deal for a player at Miller's comparable age, salary range and term, that returned anything more than a 22-31 range 1st rounder and a Top 50 prospect (which Kravtsov is despite all the bashing).

You're acting like it isn't a common experience for fans of players on the brink to be SUPER DEMANDING OF A TEAM'S TOP THREE PROSPECTS +, only to be let down at what they actually got dealt for.

Vancouver is getting a late first and a B+ prospect for Miller, at best. Maybe a 2nd thrown in. If you don't believe me, let's revisit after the deal is done. Because it's HFBoards and THIS - ALWAYS - HAPPENS.

I mean hey, does it happen for Zach Jones and a 1st? Sure, I could see that. The value there is not a whole lot different from Kravtsov and a 1st lol.

Show me one example of a 1st line PPG player, in his prime who can play in any situation , that was signed for another year and a half, that didn't ask for a trade, that was seen a leader in the room, who was traded for a late 1st and a b prospect?

 

[Icebreakers]

Obviously it depends on the market, and with that being said, you have potentially a buyers market this year with guys like Miller, Giroux, Hertl, Pavelski all being available. And that's just for the top tier players. You'll have teams who are selling second tier assets as well, and some buyers may be more inclined to save their assets and go with those guys. So right off the bat the market isn't really in your favor at this point.

But you also can't just say "well Goodrow and Coleman returned 1sts, and Miller is way better than they are, so he should return 3 1sts" because what Coleman and Goodrow got don't matter and it's only a part of the rental picture.

No one is denying that you'll get a 1st+ for Miller. What people are taking exception to is the idea that the + has to be the absolute upper echelon of prospects. It's more often than not, not the case.

I'm not saying they are going to trade Schneider, but it has to be in the conversation at least.

Giroux, Hertl, and Pavelski are all UFA's this year too. At least for Miller youll get him at a sweet cap hit for all of next season.

The thing with NY is that they have Fox and Trouba(whos playing really well) ahead of Schneider long term.

 

[Rey]

This same J.T Miller who was a turnover machine, prone to making bone headed mistakes and a locker room cancer is now Connor McDavid levels.

So yeah , so many negotiators here wanting to sell high. Sorry rangers fans, most people in vancouver here are either jobless or work at home . Got too much time on their hands and wanna play armchair gm.

These guys don’t even have a reason they want Schneider. Watch it be Lunqvist, Cytil, And a first and when they hear the same guy pump up those guys, they’ll be happy again.

 

[Raistlin]

-Miller is an objectively valuable player to every GM out there in the middle of his peak,
-2.6 million for this year and next
-plays center and wing, wins faceoffs
-plays exceptional in PP and ES, can kill penalties
-plays well in a grinding game in corners
-is a leader in the room, plays with passion
-over PPG in last playoffs

if you look at it from a GM's perspective, all 31 gms should be interested.

factor in:
-Canucks dont NEED to trade him, he is their best forward, he has no NMC or NTC or even a restricted list.
-already well known interest from other GMs
-Rutherford/new GM will be judged heavily on this trade, by media, AND HIS OWN LOCKER ROOM.
-Rutherford is actually capable of fleecing other GMs unlike the last guy who we dont talk about.

the return will not be Kravtsov and a late 1st,

I'm figuring:
with Rangers, it will start off with Schneider, +, and 1st I'm sure of it.
with Minny, Lambos, 1st +
with Colorado, Newhook and picks
with Calgary ....honestly, not likely, Miller will not be traded within our division by Rutherford.
with L.A., would love to get Mikey Anderson or Clarke, their pool is so deep, but Miller is not the right fit for them, they should go after Chychrun/Klingberg

 

[AKL]

I'm not saying they are going to trade Schneider, but it has to be in the conversation at least.

Giroux, Hertl, and Pavelski are all UFA's this year too. At least for Miller youll get him at a sweet cap hit for all of next season.

The thing with NY is that they have Fox and Trouba(whos playing really well) ahead of Schneider long term.

But that's the thing. Schneider doesn't have to be in the conversation at least. At least not beyond "we would like Schneider", "he's not available", "oh okay". That's it. That's as far as the discussion needs to go. And the Rangers fans aren't in the wrong for it, and it doesn't mean the Rangers can't still put together a package for Miller. And maybe it means that Miller ends up being traded elsewhere, and I'm guessing the Rangers fans who say no Schneider are perfectly okay with that if the ultimatum the Canucks are giving them is Schneider or no deal.

This goes both ways. You can't go around to every team demanding their top piece that they don't want to move for your guy, and saying no deal if not. Because ultimately the Canucks do need to make a deal at some point. If they try to strong arm every team into giving up pieces they don't want to give up, eventually Miller is going to walk and the Canucks get nothing. You don't have the absolute leverage you think you do here.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

Yep. Only a few years ago, Miller was a THROW IN PIECE in the Ryan McDonagh deal, all so NYR could acquire Libor Hajek, Brett Howden, and a 1st. And Miller was a 50-pt player at the time!

Fans always think the value of their players is another team's top prospect, and the truth is that you're far more likely to get additional picks and lower prospects, even for star players.

Guess the concept of a players value going up as he develops is unknown to you?

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Come oooooooon Lafreniere.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

This same J.T Miller who was a turnover machine, prone to making bone headed mistakes and a locker room cancer is now Connor McDavid levels.

So yeah , so many negotiators here wanting to sell high. Sorry rangers fans, most people in vancouver here are either jobless or work at home . Got too much time on their hands and wanna play armchair gm.

These guys don’t even have a reason they want Schneider. Watch it be Lunqvist, Cytil, And a first and when they hear the same guy pump up those guys, they’ll be happy again.

Wow, clueless you are, you think McDavid would only get a package like that, HAHAHA wow.....

 

[These Are The Days]

Tampa definitely overpaid to get the pieces they desperately coveted.

And I'd want our GM to do it again and again and again. Yzerman was so frustrating because with the exception of acquiring McDonagh, we just seemingly stood pat every year

 

[Rey]

Wow, clueless you are, you think McDavid would only get a package like that, HAHAHA wow.....

we can already establish that this poster is still in grade school so think twice if anyone is getting it with some of the posters here.

 

[CherryToke]

Come oooooooon Lafreniere.

Don't want that bust. What kind of player trolls an opposing bench after scoring a shootout goal while putting up 4th line numbers.. lol

 

[mriswith]

And I'd want our GM to do it again and again and again. Yzerman was so frustrating because with the exception of acquiring McDonagh, we just seemingly stood pat every year

That was Gillis' biggest flaw in my opinion too. Always digging in the bargain bin and overly protective of our farm and 1st round picks.

I'd have traded the farm to add a guy like 2022 Miller to the Canucks back in 2010 and been glad of it.

Contenders always think the window is longer than it is. When you're a real legit cup favourite, you need to go all in, those years are often scarce. Do what it takes to get over the hump while you can cause time is short.

 

[bigdog16]

Don't want that bust. What kind of player trolls an opposing bench after scoring a shootout goal while putting up 4th line numbers.. lol

You really think that's what he was doing? Very clearly pointing to someone on his bench. This is the dumbest take

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This thread really shows who actually knows hockey v.s. guys who are obsessed about prospects/futures. I guess this board is called Hockey Futures so maybe that justifies people's obsessions with prospects and picks?

You just have to look at past deadline deals that were made and compare.

2020 NHL Deadline Notable Deals:
Goodrow for 1st
Coleman for 1st + Foote
Brady Skej for 1st
JGP for 1st + 2nd + 3rd (with conditions)

2021 NHL Deadline Notable Deals:
Mantha for Vrana + 1st + 2nd
Foligno for 1st + 4th
Palmieri/Zajac for 1st + 4th

JT Miller is by far better than ANY of these players on the list + he has another year left at a very cheap cap hit. If your package doesn't beat any of these offers, don't even bother commenting.

JT Miller should return a 3 1st round package... if your offer doesn't come close... don't bother. Kratsov and a late first? Please stop.

How "good" a player is doesn't always mean the trade value is higher. For instance, TB had all the high end talent, great goaltending, and solid defense. They knew they were right in their window and were willing to pay very late first round picks for these guys because they were exactly the type of guys they needed, so they overpaid comparatively when looking at how "good" the player was. The FIT mattered more.

Brady Skjei had 4.5 years left on his deal when the Canes traded for him. Canes also were at risk of missing the playoffs after a trip to the ECF a year before and had just lost two top 4 defensemen for the season, Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesce, to injury so they had to take a more drastic action. They were desperate. They had 2 first round picks (because they had Toronto's in the Marleau deal) so they were willing to make that move.

Etc.. etc..

I DO think Miller will get a very good return, such as a 1st, good prospect and/or a young player/another prospect, but I won't try to figure out the names of which players/prospects as I don't know other team's prospects very well. I'm only saying that the situation around the acquisition has a big impact on he return.

 

[Bettman Returnz]

But that's the thing. Schneider doesn't have to be in the conversation at least. At least not beyond "we would like Schneider", "he's not available", "oh okay". That's it. That's as far as the discussion needs to go. And the Rangers fans aren't in the wrong for it, and it doesn't mean the Rangers can't still put together a package for Miller. And maybe it means that Miller ends up being traded elsewhere, and I'm guessing the Rangers fans who say no Schneider are perfectly okay with that if the ultimatum the Canucks are giving them is Schneider or no deal.

This goes both ways. You can't go around to every team demanding their top piece that they don't want to move for your guy, and saying no deal if not. Because ultimately the Canucks do need to make a deal at some point. If they try to strong arm every team into giving up pieces they don't want to give up, eventually Miller is going to walk and the Canucks get nothing. You don't have the absolute leverage you think you do here.

That’s fair to say… Schneider is not going to be traded, he’s off limits. In the same breath Canucks don’t need a Lundqvist style D. We already have Hughes and rathbone. So there has to be a counter to the counter. We ask for othmann and it’s no to him too. So then what, where do we go from there.

Not saying Lundqvist doesn’t hold any value either, just not the right fit for our team.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Lmao he’s a different player than when he was in Tampa. You’re paying the price for current JT Miller who’s a top 20 scorer who can play anywhere in the lineup at any position and specials teams. He gets a 1st+Top prospect @ MINIMUM

He's not top 20 currently though. He's literally 30th.

 

[Bettman Returnz]

He's not top 20 currently though. He's literally 30th.

He was top 20 a week ago before our Covid issues. That’s why you keep hearing that. We understand he’s slipped just outside of that now. Not to mention his trade value didn’t just plummet because of a few points either.

 

[wonton15]

But that's the thing. Schneider doesn't have to be in the conversation at least. At least not beyond "we would like Schneider", "he's not available", "oh okay". That's it. That's as far as the discussion needs to go. And the Rangers fans aren't in the wrong for it, and it doesn't mean the Rangers can't still put together a package for Miller. And maybe it means that Miller ends up being traded elsewhere, and I'm guessing the Rangers fans who say no Schneider are perfectly okay with that if the ultimatum the Canucks are giving them is Schneider or no deal.

This goes both ways. You can't go around to every team demanding their top piece that they don't want to move for your guy, and saying no deal if not. Because ultimately the Canucks do need to make a deal at some point. If they try to strong arm every team into giving up pieces they don't want to give up, eventually Miller is going to walk and the Canucks get nothing. You don't have the absolute leverage you think you do here.

If I had to guess, your first paragraph is likely what the conversation JR is having right now. I'm pretty sure Schneider is and will be part of the discussion until the trade deadline, but it'll be no surprise if it doesn't happen. Fair.

Second paragraph is more of a ? to me. Your second sentence describes exactly how JR should be starting off the bidding. We don't NEED to make a deal and there isn't a gun to our head, but obviously to extract maximum value with his unique contract $ and length he's going to be the highlight of discussion up to the trade deadline. We do have pretty good leverage in the sense that this is a legitimate piece at a low cap hit for contenders to push them over the hump, and any realistic contender like Colorado etc. should do their due diligence for a rare piece and contract like this. See Dallas and Nieuwendyk/Iginla and their cup - made so much sense. Are they sad they gave up Iginla? Sure. But are they sad enough about Iginla to give their cup back? Probably not. Is NYR at this stage? Maybe not, which is maybe why it doesn't make as much sense.

 

[Canuck Luck]

I know I’ve been okay on doing a quantity trade of something like Lundqvist + 1st + 2nd or Barron + 1st + foudy for miller at full price but the more I’ve thought about it, if those are the best offers, the Canucks are better off waiting until the off-season. More teams will become interested as contracts come off the books and more teams decide they are going to compete next season. JT could be a focal part in helping them with that goal. We are likely to get just as good of an offer in the off-season as the above offers

 

[AKL]

Second paragraph is more of a ? to me. Your second sentence describes exactly how JR should be starting off the bidding. We don't NEED to make a deal and there isn't a gun to our head, but obviously to extract maximum value with his unique contract $ and length he's going to be the highlight of discussion up to the trade deadline.

There's a difference between asking for said prospect, and giving each team an ultimatum. You're completely right, he should be asking for Schneider. That's a part of the negotiations. But if NY says no to Schneider being included, and you keep insisting that there's no deal without him, you're not negotiating anymore. You're just making a fool of yourself.

Again I'll restate that Vancouver doesn't need to move him at this deadline, but unless you can re-sign him this summer, there is a deadline on when you do need to move him by, and it's about a year from now. So you can take all of that time if needed to make the decision, but his value isn't going to go up over the course of that year.

I'm not saying Vancouver has no leverage here to ask for good pieces, because of course they do, but this idea that Schneider has to be involved or there's no deal to be made is unfounded. Just as easily as Vancouver can say "no Schneider, no deal", New York can say "okay, no deal", and then neither team gets anything. But I can assure, if you take the mutually assured destruction route of neither team getting anything, it's going to hurt the team that has the timer ticking away more than the team that has to keep their 20 year old RD prospect.

 

[heisenbergsitti]

homer much? - not exactly the same tier of player

No, because Canucks fans are saying Miller is worth three 1st round picks..so is kaprizov five or more? Is connor McDavid 8 or more? Jt Miller being a free agent in 1.5 years isn't getting that

 

[mouz135]

TIL in this thread that the majority of people seem to think a player’s value is the value of said player 4 years ago

Absolutely unheard of that a player improves their play, reaches their prime and ups their value. That definitely doesn’t happen in hockey. No sir.

 

[FoxysExpensiveNYDigs]

The whole "Coleman got 2 1sts" and such argument is so dumb. The market changes year to year. You dont see GMs trading 1sts for a Paul Gaustad or Erat for Forsberg anymore. GMs learn.

 

[67 others]

No, because Canucks fans are saying Miller is worth three 1st round picks..so is kaprizov five or more? Is connor McDavid 8 or more? Jt Miller being a free agent in 1.5 years isn't getting that

Yes actually.

if someone offer sheets Kaprisov and they demanded 5 first rounders in compensation, i'd say that's not enough as he is a top superstar in the league and a play driver, able to win games almost solo. McDavid is next level and beyond pick worth.

 

[JohnHodgson]

Tampa definitely overpaid to get the pieces they desperately coveted.

If you think Tampa Bay overpaid then you have no concept of economics.

Tampa Bay paid an EXPENSIVE price for something they coveted. And they ended up winning two cups.

Just because something is expensive, doesn't mean you are overpaying for something.

These threads really expose those who get it and those who don't.