Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Edition III: Spring Training Madness (Spring Training is over. Season starts on Thursday, Mar 30)

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While he's a 3B by the eye test, running UZR (the author had access to enough MiLB data to run it) grades him out as an average defensive SS at the MLB level.
Innnnnnnnnnnteresting

The Jays not moving Bo off of SS for Espinal is understandable because at the end of the day, Santiago is a utility player that could be traded at any given time. If Orelvis comes up as the intended long term Chapman and grades out better than Bo defensively at SS. Then you'd probably want to run something like a Barger-Orelvis-Bichette-Guerrero infield. You could also just keep Chap and do Barger in the OF.

Debating whether to move Bichette off SS is one of my least favourite things but man, shortstop defence is one of the only glaring weaknesses on this team.
 
This is probably too early, but is anyone else looking forward to them possibly doing a 30-year anniversary of their second World Series championship?
 
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That was an interesting read. I do find it a little hilarious that he's using Holds as a cornerstone stat then whinging about Blown Saves. they're two sides of the same flawed stat (because Holds are just non-Save in-game Saves). His complaint about how he didn't like the team using outside the box type stats because his camp stuck to core metrics is also funny because it kind of smacks of when you play games against someone who makes up their own rules and then complains when nobody else sticks to them.

Still I respect the fact that his issues are based on the qualitative quirks of the process and not just "waahh, they said I wasn't good at baseball, the big, dumb doo-doo heads!"


Elsewhere, I don't know if this was already posted but Fangraphs has its top 100 prospects out.


For the Jays:

24: Ricky Tiedmann (SP/LHP)

A physical lefty with mid-90s arm strength and a mind-bending slider, Tiedemann has become one of the minors’ highest-ceiling arms.

He's given a 55 FV on the back of 2-3 Plus pitches and potential future Plus command with decent velo





53: Addison Barger (listed as a 2B but is potentially a bit of a UTIL)

He got a 50 FV mostly carried by his power potential and the fact that he's otherwise decent-but-not-great everywhere else (it's a little odd considering he's graded as a 40 FV on most of his other tools, so I would've thought a 50 overall grade is a bit high. But whatever.)

Barger has huge left-handed bat speed and a shot to stay on the dirt, just not at shortstop.
Wow this is great info. Thx for sharing.
 

Basically, no rookie can be designated a hitter, meaning that they are pitchers. On top of that, they need at least 60 games of 3 or more at bats.

MLB has gone WAY out of their way to give an unfair advantage to whichever team has Ohtani (he counts as a hitter, allowing his team to carry 13 pitchers other than Shohei).
You mean prepping the yanks for an advantage
 


Atkins:
Should Have Been Me Crying GIF - Should Have Been Me Crying Sad ...
 
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ZiPS has Barger with .244 avg, 20 hr, 85rbi in 124 games
That's pretty unreal, it would be amazing if that played out even with a low obp. But I'm not sure how ZiPs has him getting 124 games with such a logjam at 2B and DH and he also has both Espinal at 128 games and Bichette at 152 games so I'm not sure where he's getting these games from. He will need to take a significant amount of at bats away from Belt/Kirk/Jansen at DH in this scenario and then play mostly at DH. Barger/Espinal/Biggio/Whit is quite the battle at 2B as well. I hope they let actual performance dictate who wins the 2B battle rather then just handing it over to a vet. If Barger goes off in spring training I would love to see him make the team and maybe even start if some other guys come out slow.
 
That's pretty unreal, it would be amazing if that played out even with a low obp. But I'm not sure how ZiPs has him getting 124 games with such a logjam at 2B and DH and he also has both Espinal at 128 games and Bichette at 152 games so I'm not sure where he's getting these games from. He will need to take a significant amount of at bats away from Belt/Kirk/Jansen at DH in this scenario and then play mostly at DH. Barger/Espinal/Biggio/Whit is quite the battle at 2B as well. I hope they let actual performance dictate who wins the 2B battle rather then just handing it over to a vet. If Barger goes off in spring training I would love to see him make the team and maybe even start if some other guys come out slow.



Some of these HR's are just crazy
 
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Well the arm is typically graded as a 55-60, and having plus power and likely able to stick on the left side of the infield is valuable.

The power comes with other pros like his elite bat speed and decent loft. He has contact skills but last season his approach was extremely aggressive. I don't know if it was by design but he was never really a guy noted for poor plate discipline prior to 2022.

As the season went along his approach may have shifted. 2nd half his K% dropped to 25.9% and his BB% was 11.4%. His last month (arbitrary cutoff of 16/08 to 16/09) saw his K% down to 22.1% and his BB% up to 15.4%.

I'm still pretty low on Orelvis, but he was just 20 years old at AA. Teoscar had an even worse go at AA as a 22 y/o (and spent parts of 3 years at the level). Chapman was striking out even more as a 23 y/o in AA. It'll be interesting to see how he fares during his 2nd go at the level.
Shulman I think it is created Zips and he was on the fan yesterday. They talked about this and you’re pretty much spot on the reason why he’s projected so high because they were shocked by it too. Said his batting average was too low to be sustainable. Lower than a pitchers average and his balls in play average was too low. I may not be explaining it quite right so Zips accounted for that. Bump for premium position and that if it had projected him as a 3b he wouldn’t have graded so highly. The biggest factor is that he is 20 in AA where the low age average is 22. That also seemed really big. There were two other things it took into account with the batting stuff but I may be misremembering the exact thing. It was something along the lines of swing rate on balls in the zone which defaults into walk rate.
 

22. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Blue Jays (2023 seasonal age: 21)​

Tiedemann went undrafted out of high school in 2020 and opted to go the junior college route, making him eligible again in 2021. The Blue Jays popped him in the third round, and he's since emerged as one of the top left-handed pitching prospects in the sport. Tiedemann has three average or better pitches (fastball, slider, changeup) that he delivers from a flat release point. He's shown sufficient control, too, issuing a free pass just once every three innings for his pro career. Tiedemann ended last season in Double-A, suggesting he could make his big-league debut this year. The Blue Jays have good reason to be conservative if they so desire: he's thrown just 78 professional innings and he won't celebrate his 21st birthday until next August.
 
Shulman I think it is created Zips and he was on the fan yesterday. They talked about this and you’re pretty much spot on the reason why he’s projected so high because they were shocked by it too. Said his batting average was too low to be sustainable. Lower than a pitchers average and his balls in play average was too low. I may not be explaining it quite right so Zips accounted for that. Bump for premium position and that if it had projected him as a 3b he wouldn’t have graded so highly. The biggest factor is that he is 20 in AA where the low age average is 22. That also seemed really big. There were two other things it took into account with the batting stuff but I may be misremembering the exact thing. It was something along the lines of swing rate on balls in the zone which defaults into walk rate.
I think and it is something I have talked about over the last few months that I honestly think the industry over corrected way to hard in the other direction with Orelvis. Now is he a top 10 prospect like ZIPS is saying? Probably not but him falling completely out of top 100 lists based on last season is also ridiculous. Going to be interesting to see how he progresses this season.
 
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I think and it is something I have talked about over the last few months that I honestly think the industry over corrected way to hard in the other direction with Orelvis. Now is he a top 10 prospect like ZIPS is saying? Probably not but him falling completely out of top 100 lists based on last season is also ridiculous. Going to be interesting to see how he progresses this season.
It made zero sense to me too. He was one of three 20 year old players in AA last season that qualified based on their ABs, and ended up tied for 2nd in the entire league in HR. Even with the average being as low as it was and the strikeouts being too high, he showed he could take a walk 8.1% of the time, and had the lowest BABIP of any qualified hitter in the entire league. The ridiculously low average (like we said about Jano for years) is simply unsustainable even if he continues to strike out at the same clip. It's not like he's Kirk running out there either so you have to at least assume he'll start legging out some hits. The switch from elite prospect at 19 to a nothing player at 20 was insane lol, especially with the kind of season he had.
 
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