Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Edition III: Spring Training Madness (Spring Training is over. Season starts on Thursday, Mar 30)

[rojac]

Yeah, they’ve been mentioning the Saturday game for awhile. Basically, I think it works like this. There will be Sportsnet-produced broadcasts for all the home spring training games. If the Jays are on the road and the home team is broadcasting the game, Sportsnet will almost certainly pick up that broadcast — although It’s possible one or two may end up only online.

So, Saturday’s game is a Pittsburgh broadcast. Sunday is the first Sportsnet-produced broadcast.

On Blair & Barker this morning, they mentioned that Sportsnet would televise 22 road games (so the 16 home games and 6 road games).

 

[Bjindaho]

This is a really fascinating read. I appreciate that both perspectives are completely valid, but I put a lot more stock into this kind of measured, analytical breakdown of the process than in the more emotional "They hurt my feelings and said mean things about me" responses we more frequently get from players.

This makes me appreciate those players' situation more.

Using Corbin Burnes as an example:

His platform year is good but not great (better analytic stats, weaker counting stats)

Milwaukee could argue that career and consistency isn't there (he has 2 years of top end plus 9 starts)

Previous salary is 6.5M

He actually got less than Fried, while arguably being a better pitcher (though he also asked for less). There aren't a whole lot of comparisons around where he is, but he's clearly better than all of them.

He hasn't really missed any time over the last two years.

And the absolute beaut of a decision maker, which is that the Brewers can use not making the playoffs against Burnes in their case.

Also taking into account that the arbitrators aren't required to have even passing knowledge of baseball, his team could throw out 12-8 on a team that missed the playoffs and have that likely beat Burnes (even if he finished 6th in Cy Young voting)

 

[Bjindaho]

Taking this problem one step further, take a team like Colorado.

As of right now, they have two non-negative defensive players returning from last year (ie likely the worst D in all of baseball). They are projected for 97 losses (thanks largely to two guys above 100wRC+ last year with a minimum of 100 PA)

Using Austin Gomber as an example (because he is their only real arbitration candidate)

He could be the best pitcher in baseball next year, but their lack of D will hurt his counting stats, their lack of offense (and defense) will take away his chances of having wins, and they will automatically gain the argument that the team was unsuccessful to use against him (which we already know to be true during spring training)

 

[The Nemesis]

This is a really fascinating read. I appreciate that both perspectives are completely valid, but I put a lot more stock into this kind of measured, analytical breakdown of the process than in the more emotional "They hurt my feelings and said mean things about me" responses we more frequently get from players.

That was an interesting read. I do find it a little hilarious that he's using Holds as a cornerstone stat then whinging about Blown Saves. they're two sides of the same flawed stat (because Holds are just non-Save in-game Saves). His complaint about how he didn't like the team using outside the box type stats because his camp stuck to core metrics is also funny because it kind of smacks of when you play games against someone who makes up their own rules and then complains when nobody else sticks to them.

Still I respect the fact that his issues are based on the qualitative quirks of the process and not just "waahh, they said I wasn't good at baseball, the big, dumb doo-doo heads!"


Elsewhere, I don't know if this was already posted but Fangraphs has its top 100 prospects out.

2023 Top 100 Prospects

Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin present their 2023 Top 100 list, with reports for each player.

blogs.fangraphs.com

For the Jays:

24: Ricky Tiedmann (SP/LHP)

A physical lefty with mid-90s arm strength and a mind-bending slider, Tiedemann has become one of the minors’ highest-ceiling arms.

He's given a 55 FV on the back of 2-3 Plus pitches and potential future Plus command with decent velo

Tiedemann was passed over as a SoCal high school hurler in the 2020 draft due in part to an ill-timed injury. He spent a year at a JUCO, where he was good but not totally dominant, to the consternation and befuddlement of some scouts. But his stuff, body projection and age (even after a year of JUCO ball, he was still just 18 when he was drafted in 2021), were enough for Toronto to pick him up in the third round. Opinions on Tiedemann vary depending on how much stock is put in his early professional performance: He sat 96 mph at instructs in 2021, but skeptics questioned whether that was a short-term effect of him airing things out in short stints, or if receiving higher-quality development and instruction than he got in his amateur environment had actually unlocked something. It appears the latter is true.
Tiedemann has shifted toward the first base side of the rubber and has closed off his stride direction slightly, which creates additional deception in his already-funky low-slot lefty delivery. The funk-factor made up for a slight dip in velocity; the heater sat in the 94-95 range, but he still managed whiff and chase rates well above average on the offering as he made his way from Low- to Double-A in his first year of pro ball. He throws two plus secondaries — a mid-80s changeup and a low-80s slider, each with good movement and high whiff-rates — and he’s shown the ability to locate each of his offerings, boasting strikeout rates over 34% at all three minor league levels. Sometimes the length of his slider is so ridiculous that it’s actually tough for him to control. He has three potential plus pitches and front-end upside.

53: Addison Barger (listed as a 2B but is potentially a bit of a UTIL)

He got a 50 FV mostly carried by his power potential and the fact that he's otherwise decent-but-not-great everywhere else (it's a little odd considering he's graded as a 40 FV on most of his other tools, so I would've thought a 50 overall grade is a bit high. But whatever.)

Barger has huge left-handed bat speed and a shot to stay on the dirt, just not at shortstop.

The Blue Jays coaxed Barger away from a Florida commitment with $270,000, and he barely played during his first two full seasons, one of them lost to the pandemic. Toronto didn’t accelerate his promotion schedule to make up for the lost time, so he began 2021 back at Low-A as a 21-year-old and (mostly) flew under the FanGraphs prospect radar as an old-for-the-level player until 2022, when Barger hammered High- and Double-A pitching as a 22-year-old. He hit 26 homers and 33 doubles and posted a 148 wRC+ at Vancouver and New Hampshire before he was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo at the very end of the year. Barger then went to the Arizona Fall League, where his left-handed bat speed stood out among lots of other good hitting prospects. His swing is a spectacle, lots of fun when he’s on time and frustrating when he’s late, utilizing a narrow, open stance and a huge leg kick. Barger can really cut it loose and is a threat to do damage on every swing. Though he’s been playing a lot of shortstop, he isn’t a fit there and his hands and actions are below average. He’s okay at second and third base, but the Blue Jays’ infield is already pretty loaded, so he’s likely to see time in the outfield this year. Ideally he’ll play a few different positions based on the game situation. We think there will be enough power for Barger to produce like an average regular in a multi-positional role.

 

[phillipmike]

Check this thread out. First time I think a player has full out explained what transpired in his arbitration hearing.

Wow, i knew the MLB had stupid rules but i didnt know the arb process was this poorly thought out.

 

[phillipmike]

Top 100 Players Right Now: No. 1 revealed

Opening Day is in sight, and with it, the return of a plethora of superstar players who will thrill us with prodigious home runs, overpowering pitching performances and breathtaking defensive plays throughout the MLB season. So the question that inevitably arises at this time of year is: Who are the

www.mlb.com

18. Vlad Jr
34. Bo Bichette
49. George Springer
57. Alek Manoah
75. Matt Chapman
85. Daulton Varsho
90. Alejandro Kirk

I doubt Gausman is in the top 10 so pretty bad he didnt make the list. I dont know how Giancarlo Stanton is 100th. Nor how Kirk is ranked 90th with 5 catchers ahead of him. Teo is 83rd on the list.

 

[Discoverer]

Top 100 Players Right Now: No. 1 revealed

Opening Day is in sight, and with it, the return of a plethora of superstar players who will thrill us with prodigious home runs, overpowering pitching performances and breathtaking defensive plays throughout the MLB season. So the question that inevitably arises at this time of year is: Who are the

www.mlb.com

View attachment 655288




I doubt Gausman is in the top 10 so pretty bad he didnt make the list. I dont know how Giancarlo Stanton is 100th. Nor how Kirk is ranked 90th with 5 catchers ahead of him. Teo is 83rd on the list.

Ha, Stanton doesn't belong anywhere near a top 100 at this point.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[canucksfan]

Stanton is probably closer to 200th than 100th

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Canada4Gold]

Manoah not playing the "I hate the system so I'll take the minimum to make a point" game this year

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Bjindaho]

ZiPS 2023 Top 100 Prospects

ZiPS picks its favorite prospects for the 2023 season.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Orelvis at 5!!!

ZIPS actually likes him as a shortstop (every publication has him as a 3rd baseman)

 

[Canada4Gold]

For a O's fan, Dan talks about the Jays a lot. He loves their team and prospects. My guess is Tieddman, Barger and Zulueta.

Zulueta not even in the top 100. Orelvis at 5 is wild though

 

[kb]

ZiPS 2023 Top 100 Prospects

ZiPS picks its favorite prospects for the 2023 season.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Orelvis at 5!!!

ZIPS actually likes him as a shortstop (every publication has him as a 3rd baseman)

Oy.....

So in the AL East, the Jays, Yankees, Orioles, and Rays all have 3 prospects in the top 30. Other teams with 3 include the Guardians and Reds,

 

[Suntouchable13]

Wow, Victor Martinez is a sneaky good add. Also, love that Edwin wants to be involved with the Jays.

 

[Eyedea]

I'm surprised Davis Schneider or Palmegiani didn't end up in that top 100. ZiPS really likes the Jays power hitting IFs (Doughty too but SSS).

 

[Nineteen67]

Kid throwing 97 from the right and 92 from the left. Disgusting.

That is one helluva ballpark and facility in Starkville, as is Swayze in Oxford.

 

[Hoverhand]

Orelvis at 5 is so bonkers, I can't wait to see how the debate on him develops over the course of the year. Other than maybe "can Tiedemann maintain this dominance" I would say "Can Orelvis lower his strikeout rate and still be a monster" is the biggest question out of the Jays farm system this year.

 

[kb]

Orelvis at 5 is so bonkers, I can't wait to see how the debate on him develops over the course of the year. Other than maybe "can Tiedemann maintain this dominance" I would say "Can Orelvis lower his strikeout rate and still be a monster" is the biggest question out of the Jays farm system this year.

Yeah, I mean Orelvis' one lone standout tool is power. Average or worse except for his arm, which plays at 3rd.

They usually aren't so bullish on one tool.

 

[TMLeafer]

Wow, Victor Martinez is a sneaky good add. Also, love that Edwin wants to be involved with the Jays.

Replace the home run jacket with a stuffed parrot.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Really great to see that after all these years, Hentgen still retains an affiliation and has a deep connection with the team.

 

[Bjindaho]

Yeah, I mean Orelvis' one lone standout tool is power. Average or worse except for his arm, which plays at 3rd.

They usually aren't so bullish on one tool.

While he's a 3B by the eye test, running UZR (the author had access to enough MiLB data to run it) grades him out as an average defensive SS at the MLB level.

 

[Eyedea]

Yeah, I mean Orelvis' one lone standout tool is power. Average or worse except for his arm, which plays at 3rd.

They usually aren't so bullish on one tool.

Well the arm is typically graded as a 55-60, and having plus power and likely able to stick on the left side of the infield is valuable.

The power comes with other pros like his elite bat speed and decent loft. He has contact skills but last season his approach was extremely aggressive. I don't know if it was by design but he was never really a guy noted for poor plate discipline prior to 2022.

As the season went along his approach may have shifted. 2nd half his K% dropped to 25.9% and his BB% was 11.4%. His last month (arbitrary cutoff of 16/08 to 16/09) saw his K% down to 22.1% and his BB% up to 15.4%.

I'm still pretty low on Orelvis, but he was just 20 years old at AA. Teoscar had an even worse go at AA as a 22 y/o (and spent parts of 3 years at the level). Chapman was striking out even more as a 23 y/o in AA. It'll be interesting to see how he fares during his 2nd go at the level.

 

[kb]

Well the arm is typically graded as a 55-60, and having plus power and likely able to stick on the left side of the infield is valuable.

The power comes with other pros like his elite bat speed and decent loft. He has contact skills but last season his approach was extremely aggressive. I don't know if it was by design but he was never really a guy noted for poor plate discipline prior to 2022.

As the season went along his approach may have shifted. 2nd half his K% dropped to 25.9% and his BB% was 11.4%. His last month (arbitrary cutoff of 16/08 to 16/09) saw his K% down to 22.1% and his BB% up to 15.4%.

I'm still pretty low on Orelvis, but he was just 20 years old at AA. Teoscar had an even worse go at AA as a 22 y/o. Chapman was striking out even more as a 23 y/o in AA. It'll be interesting to see how he fares during his 2nd go at the level.

I agree with most of this. I'm not disagreeing that his arm plays on the left side of the infield, but it is not quite a standout tool.

He did make adjustments to his approach as the season went on. I think the 'sink or swim' placement in AA was to challenge Orelvis as he didn't have to deal with adversity up until then.

If he gets off to a hot start in AA, the early season struggles of last season will be all but forgotten as a blip or learning experience.