Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Edition III: Spring Training Madness (Spring Training is over. Season starts on Thursday, Mar 30)

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Happy baseball season fellow youths.

 

[The Nemesis]

There was a short plug on Connected tonight that appears to indicate the Jays' game in Pittsburgh on Saturday (1pm ET/10am PT) will be on TV. This is the first of their "we might air some of the road games" additions and it jumps ahead to be the first game we'll get on TV, beating out the originally scheduled debut game on Sunday.

 

[Puckstuff]

Sounds like:

1. Springer (RF)
2. Guerrero Jr. (1B)
3. Varsho (LF)
4. Bichette (SS)
5. Kirk (DH)
6. Chapman (3B)
7. Jansen (C)
8. Merrifield (2B)
9. Kiermaier (CF)

Then Belt DHing vs RHP and probably hitting 6 or 7.

For me, I want Biggio to start vs righties and Espinal vs lefties. Merrifield is my 4th outfielder vs lefties.

 

[Discoverer]

For me, I want Biggio to start vs righties and Espinal vs lefties. Merrifield is my 4th outfielder vs lefties.

I think we're gonna see Merrifield as the "starting" 2B against righties, Espinal starts against lefties with Merrifield in LF, Biggio just slots in here and there based on matchup, and everyone takes a bit more playing time as they earn it.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

 

[Hoverhand]

In my opinion, Biggio needs to fight and claw for every plate appearance. He had a 103 wRC+ against righties last year and if you isolate the 2 months after he was traded, Merrifield's 108 wRC+ beats him out.

I think this is a big spring training for him. I'd like to see him make some adjustments and try to rekindle some success from his first two years. With Merrifield and Belt coming in, his opportunities for playing time when the infield is healthy are dwindling fast.

 

[Bjindaho]

2023 Top 100 Prospects

Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin present their 2023 Top 100 list, with reports for each player.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Both Tiedemann and Barger made the cut

 

[Discoverer]

2023 Top 100 Prospects

Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin present their 2023 Top 100 list, with reports for each player.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Both Tiedemann and Barger made the cut

Barger at 53 seems like by far the most aggressive we've seen on him so far.

 

[weems]

2023 Top 100 Prospects

Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin present their 2023 Top 100 list, with reports for each player.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Both Tiedemann and Barger made the cut

Tiedemann #24
Barger #53

That is very surprising to see Barger that highly ranked by them. It seems like many prospect evaluators are now considering almost like a legit prospect after previously not being seen like that.

It makes sense after the past two seasons and the power he's shown.

I remember seeing this tweet sometime last year. We have our own Julio Rodriguez

 

[Bjindaho]

Barger at 53 seems like by far the most aggressive we've seen on him so far.

Based on his power projections. His power grades similarly to Orevlis's.

Positional uncertainty is one of the weakest parts of his game (along with K's), but he hypothetically has the skillset to play 7 positions defensively in MLB (although SS would only really be in a pinch).

 

[Suntouchable13]

In my opinion, Biggio needs to fight and claw for every plate appearance. He had a 103 wRC+ against righties last year and if you isolate the 2 months after he was traded, Merrifield's 108 wRC+ beats him out.

I think this is a big spring training for him. I'd like to see him make some adjustments and try to rekindle some success from his first two years. With Merrifield and Belt coming in, his opportunities for playing time when the infield is healthy are dwindling fast.

Shouldn’t the shift ban be very helpful to him, though?

 

[theaub]

Shouldn’t the shift ban be very helpful to him, though?

By my primitive use of the fangraphs splits tool, in 507 AB over the last two seasons he's had 10 hard hit groundballs to the pull side (.100 AVG). So I don't think it will be a huge impact.

 

[Bjindaho]

For opening night, I see us as:

Springer
Guerrerro
Belt
Bichette
Jansen
Varsho
Merrifield
Chapman
Kiermeier

STL is likely to start a righty

 

[rojac]

There was a short plug on Connected tonight that appears to indicate the Jays' game in Pittsburgh on Saturday (1pm ET/10am PT) will be on TV. This is the first of their "we might air some of the road games" additions and it jumps ahead to be the first game we'll get on TV, beating out the originally scheduled debut game on Sunday.

Yeah, they’ve been mentioning the Saturday game for awhile. Basically, I think it works like this. There will be Sportsnet-produced broadcasts for all the home spring training games. If the Jays are on the road and the home team is broadcasting the game, Sportsnet will almost certainly pick up that broadcast — although It’s possible one or two may end up only online.

So, Saturday’s game is a Pittsburgh broadcast. Sunday is the first Sportsnet-produced broadcast.

 

[Eyedea]

Some funky things going on with that top 100 list. Things that immediately jump out to me are some very conservative ETAs (especially Brooks Lee, Ricky Tiedemann, and Zach Neto), and IMO Barger is probably more of a 3B/corner OF than 2B due to his arm strength.

 

[Puckstuff]

In my opinion, Biggio needs to fight and claw for every plate appearance. He had a 103 wRC+ against righties last year and if you isolate the 2 months after he was traded, Merrifield's 108 wRC+ beats him out.

I think this is a big spring training for him. I'd like to see him make some adjustments and try to rekindle some success from his first two years. With Merrifield and Belt coming in, his opportunities for playing time when the infield is healthy are dwindling fast.

Merrifield’s career 98 wrc+ vs righties seems more accurate of the player he is vs righties and that would be generous as It seems unlikely he would do better than his career numbers when his numbers have tailed off over the last 2 years. Maybe his numbers project better at Rogers centre but Biggio seems like a good candidate to carry a 100+ wrc+ vs righties since he did it last year and is younger. Then you have Espinal who absolutely rakes lefties. If Biggio or even Barger rake in spring training I wouldn’t be just handing the job over to Merrifield. Another thing to consider is Merrifield can actually play a respectable defensive outfield where as Espinal and Biggio cannot so he seems like the best 4th outfielder.

 

[rojac]

Yeah, they’ve been mentioning the Saturday game for awhile. Basically, I think it works like this. There will be Sportsnet-produced broadcasts for all the home spring training games. If the Jays are on the road and the home team is broadcasting the game, Sportsnet will almost certainly pick up that broadcast — although It’s possible one or two may end up only online.

So, Saturday’s game is a Pittsburgh broadcast. Sunday is the first Sportsnet-produced broadcast.

Looking at the first couple of weeks of road games, it looks like we won’t get another road broadcast until Pittsburgh again on March 7. For a lot of teams, only a few of their spring training games are being btoadcast.

 

[Discoverer]

Merrifield’s career 98 wrc+ vs righties seems more accurate of the player he is vs righties and that would be generous as It seems unlikely he would do better than his career numbers when his numbers have tailed off over the last 2 years. Maybe his numbers project better at Rogers centre but Biggio seems like a good candidate to carry a 100+ wrc+ vs righties since he did it last year and is younger. Then you have Espinal who absolutely rakes lefties. If Biggio or even Barger rake in spring training I wouldn’t be just handing the job over to Merrifield. Another thing to consider is Merrifield can actually play a respectable defensive outfield where as Espinal and Biggio cannot so he seems like the best 4th outfielder.

Merrifield can both start at 2B and be the 4th OF, so I doubt that factors into the equation.

 

[chaosrevolver]

For opening night, I see us as:

Springer
Guerrerro
Belt
Bichette
Jansen
Varsho
Merrifield
Chapman
Kiermeier

STL is likely to start a righty

Definitely possible but with reports out of camp being that the Jays are loving the idea of Varsho at 3, I think he likely ends up there with Belt hitting at 6 or 7.

 

[Bjindaho]

Definitely possible but with reports out of camp being that the Jays are loving the idea of Varsho at 3, I think he likely ends up there with Belt hitting at 6 or 7.

That was actually the hardest thing for me.

They've openly stated that they don't want Varsho and Chapman together, so if Varsho hits 3, then Chapman could hit 5, 7 or 8

 

[Canada4Gold]

2023 Top 100 Prospects

Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin present their 2023 Top 100 list, with reports for each player.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Both Tiedemann and Barger made the cut

The new rules where is a player starts in the majors and finishes top 3 in rookie of the year voting and are top 100 in 2 main prospect publications their team gets a draft pick. Which publications are those? I hate this rule btw, it should be any rookie eligible player, why are we giving actual impact to media outlets.

This is the first I'm seeing Barger anywhere near the top 100, and I had almost assumed he's going to see very little major league time this year, possibly keeping rookie eligibility and would be eligible for that still next year. Teams are going to try to game that system just like they did the last system. Guys who debuted in August before are now going to be delayed enough that they maintain rookie eligibility into the next year. The Jays will be more concerned with making the playoffs but I could see that being the plan with Tiedemann. Minors most of the year, perhaps some September pen action once he nears innings limits keeping 2024 rookie eligibility and then starting 2024 in the rotation

 

[Bjindaho]

The new rules where is a player starts in the majors and finishes top 3 in rookie of the year voting and are top 100 in 2 main prospect publications their team gets a draft pick. Which publications are those? I hate this rule btw, it should be any rookie eligible player, why are we giving actual impact to media outlets.

This is the first I'm seeing Barger anywhere near the top 100, and I had almost assumed he's going to see very little major league time this year, possibly keeping rookie eligibility and would be eligible for that still next year. Teams are going to try to game that system just like they did last year. Guys who debuted in August before are now going to be delayed enough that they maintain rookie eligibility into the next year. The Jays will be more concerned with making the playoffs but I could see that being the plan with Tiedemann. Minors most of the year, perhaps some September pen action once he nears innings limits keeping 2024 rookie eligibility and then starting 2024 in the rotation

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[TheBeastCoast]

Also I believe you need to win the ROY to get the draft pick compensation(along with the other criteria) top 3 in MVP or Cy Young as a rookie also gets compensation.

 

[phillipmike]

For opening night, I see us as:

Springer
Guerrerro
Belt
Bichette
Jansen
Varsho
Merrifield
Chapman
Kiermeier

STL is likely to start a righty

I would say;

Springer
Guerrerro
Belt
Bichette
Kirk
Varsho
Chapman
Merrifield
Kiermeier

Bench: Jansen, Espinal, Biggio Lopez

Id say Kirk gets the start with Manoah likely being the OD starter. Could swap Belt and Varsho depending on camp.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I would say that unless Kirk drops out of the WBC at the last minute Jansen will be doing a decent amount of the catching early on while Kirk gets back to speed. In other WBC news Pivetta has dropped out for Canada. We gonna be bad.