Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 5.0 - The Winter Meeting Chronicles

[oilers89]

Either you sign Edwin and Pearce moves to left full time ( can't be worse then Saunders D) and then trade for a platoon bat with upton (Seth smith) or you trade for Lorenzo Cain and sign a platoon bat (revere or moss) for upton.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Again, wasn't trying to be a jerk, so maybe I shouldn't have been so forceful with my words. My bad. I'm just thinking that saying we're favorites is a little premature seeing that we've taken a step back in the batting and relief pitching department. I'd like this to be true. Right now, I just don't think it is.

If they resign EE then I'll change my tune, but missing out on Fowler hurts bigtime and leaves us with a hole.

Well the relief pitching should get at least one upgrade. Maybe even two if they decide to upgrade Loup or Barnes (or Sparkman, but unlikely) currently occupying one of the three "internal" spots right now.

Then if they do acquire someone like Bruce, even if he sucks in the outfield, it'll likely be for a good deal and that should improve the batting hopefully. It's not the EE and Bautista bomb show, but it's a more balanced lineup with a ton of skill. JD and Morales should hit a ton of HR's. Bruce can too I'm sure (I'd rather just resign EE though).

Really the only position I expect them to maybe skimp out on is the backup catching position, but honestly I don't really care if they start the season with Jimenez. They ran most of last season with Thole, I think Jimenez is better than him, and if he isn't then they can always just trade another no name AA arm who is 30 for a backup catcher mid season like they did with Navarro. For that matter, they can pull another Benoit or Grilli move mid season as well, if the bull pen isn't working.

Get one nice bat and one nice bullpen guy and they are probably fine to start the year. It'll be a good team, and hopefully a more balanced lineup will offset or even improve our win-total, even if we didn't acquire a Chris Sale and lost some power.

 

[Mad Brills*]

if they do nothing in the OF, just trade JD and start the rebuild.

Thenn I'm done as a fan for a while. (I'm not rooting for anyone else, just taking a break.

 

[Rysto]

The Yankees have improved!

If you don't know them at all, sure. Chapman is a great closer, but he won't be very effective if their rotation can't prevent the opposition from scoring runs.

You can't really say that the Yankees have "improved" getting Chapman. They started 2016 with him and were still terrible.

 

[no13matssundin]

Well the relief pitching should get at least one upgrade. Maybe even two if they decide to upgrade Loup or Barnes (or Sparkman, but unlikely) currently occupying one of the three "internal" spots right now.

Then if they do acquire someone like Bruce, even if he sucks in the outfield, it'll likely be for a good deal and that should improve the batting hopefully. It's not the EE and Bautista bomb show, but it's a more balanced lineup with a ton of skill. JD and Morales should hit a ton of HR's. Bruce can too I'm sure (I'd rather just resign EE though).

Really the only position I expect them to maybe skimp out on is the backup catching position, but honestly I don't really care if they start the season with Jimenez. They ran most of last season with Thole, I think Jimenez is better than him, and if he isn't then they can always just trade another no name AA arm who is 30 for a backup catcher mid season like they did with Navarro. For that matter, they can pull another Benoit or Grilli move mid season as well, if the bull pen isn't working.

Get one nice bat and one nice bullpen guy and they are probably fine to start the year. It'll be a good team, and hopefully a more balanced lineup will offset or even improve our win-total, even if we didn't acquire a Chris Sale and lost some power.

Never have I ever seen a catcher do more damage to a team in real time than when I watched Thole play. Jimenez better? Yes. Yes he is.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

Either you sign Edwin and Pearce moves to left full time ( can't be worse then Saunders D) and then trade for a platoon bat with upton (Seth smith) or you trade for Lorenzo Cain and sign a platoon bat (revere or moss) for upton.

or, sign a guy like Moss/Revere and call it a day. Can't tell with this management. Seem too conservative to give JD a realistic opportunity to win in his prime yet unwilling to commit to a rebuild

 

[Discoverer]

The idea that not signing Fowler means they won't add an outfielder is hilarious. We know they offered him roughly $15 million, so we know they have somewhere north of $15 million to spend. They're going to spend it.

What the hell is wrong with people?

 

[Cor]

You can't really say that the Yankees have "improved" getting Chapman. They started 2016 with him and were still terrible.

I completely forgot about that

Proves my point exactly

 

[Mitchy]

Eh, I was fine with giving 4/64 to Fowler, but that 5th year and potentially 18M per, mostly kills it for me.

On to the next one.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

The idea that not signing Fowler means they won't add an outfielder is hilarious. We know they offered him roughly $15 million, so we know they have somewhere north of $15 million to spend. They're going to spend it.

What the hell is wrong with people?

You are on the Leafs board.....everyone here is pre conditioned to expect the worst.

 

[Mitchy]

The idea that not signing Fowler means they won't add an outfielder is hilarious. We know they offered him roughly $15 million, so we know they have somewhere north of $15 million to spend. They're going to spend it.

What the hell is wrong with people?

People just like to vent, I guess. Some are also in a perpetual "sky is falling" mood.

 

[Cor]

AA is also the casual fans god.

Shapiro and Atkins can do no right, since they replaced him, even though they arguably built a better team in Cleveland with less money.


*Hides Under Table*

 

[oilers89]

They have multiple plans in place. Let's see how it turns out before we lose our minds

 

[Mitchy]

AA is also the casual fans god.

Shapiro and Atkins can do no right, since they replaced him, even though they arguably built a better team in Cleveland with less money.


*Hides Under Table*

Funnily enough, the same AA was also bashed endlessly at many times during his reign here.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

AA is also the casual fans god.

Shapiro and Atkins can do no right, since they replaced him, even though they arguably built a better team in Cleveland with less money.


*Hides Under Table*

I don't think there is anything wrong with being somewhere in the middle. AA was far too aggressive with the whole Marlins/Dickey/Price/Martin deal/trades but this management to me seems stuck in the middle and unwilling to commit to a rebuild/contend. I would be absolutely fine with them trading off JD/Estrada/Happ pieces and rebuilding around Sanchez/Stroman/Osuna as a possible starting rotation. I just don't see how this team, even if it spends the 15-25m resources they have remaining will be better than they were last year. I have full trust in them rebuilding the club through the draft and developing prospects, I just don't like this "contend in the short term, develop for the long term" mentality because it hardly works out. Hope that is fair enough.

 

[TribalPhoenix]

In my mind, best thing that can happen is we sign Revere (love his speed, and can lead off), Chris Iannetta (just a feeling on him, like him as a #2 being Martin), and by some grace of the almighty bring back Encarnacion for something around 3 years, 18M$ per.

Our bullpen will still be hot garbage, but hey, they may still be entertaining.

As far as Shapiro and Atkins, I don't think I've ever disliked a pair of figures in management in my entire life. Corporate shills if ever there were.

Make no mistake - without Fowler, and without bringing back EE, Rogers will happily just keep that extra 15-20M$ a season. Shapiro got that big by promising a contending team on a budget. Let's see how well that goes when attendance drops like a stone if we start losing next season.

 

[Brown Dog]

The idea that not signing Fowler means they won't add an outfielder is hilarious. We know they offered him roughly $15 million, so we know they have somewhere north of $15 million to spend. They're going to spend it.

What the hell is wrong with people?

True, but it will probably be more "spread-it-around" moves. Could work out, but a tough pill to swallow for a fan base that has been so supportive and is faced with coming to grips with losing two all-time greats in one offseason.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'm annoyed as just about anyone we didn't get Fowler but the "we are worse than last year" posts are getting to be.

Sure if we look at the talent level of the team Morales and Pearce doesn't replace EE, Bautista, Saunders, Benoit, and Cecil. EE was a 4 win player last year, Saunders and Bautista a win and a half, Cecil and Benoit half a win each. That's 8 wins replaced by 2 win Pearce, and 1 win Morales, we're 5 wins worse.

However when you look at their actual impact on the field you'll notice that due to bad sequencing particularly from Saunders and Cecil you don't need to nearly make that much up. This is where WPA comes in. It doesn't tell you how good the player is and how good they will be moving forward like WAR does. It tells you how much they impacted their teams chances of winning. A player with a high WAR but bad WPA was a good player but good in low leverage spots, bad in high leverage. And the reverse a low WAR, high WPA player was bad but good in important spots.

EE has a WPA of 1.77, therefore his apperances at the plate(defense not included here in this stat) contributed to 177% increase in the Jays chances of winning. Essentially a full game won, and another 3/4 of a game directly from EE's doing. Jose was 1.38. Benoit was 1.18. So that's 3 guys who contributed to winning, they did their good in important spots. Saunders and Cecil however, despite being a positive contribution if we remove context from the situation, both contributing positive WAR's were brutal situationally. We might not remember now but Cecil blew so many games at the beginning of the year(you probably remember that), and Saunders was just about the worst player in baseball history in high leverage spots. I remember reading an article late in the year, if his 30 highest leverage spots he contributed positively in exactly 1 of them.

Cecil was -1.68, Saunders was -1.52 , also interesting to note, Dickey was -2.10. Despite not being a major guy WAR wise , and you figure easily replaceble by Liriano he was actually a huge strain on the team and that replacment should actually gain you a couple wins.

There weren't any other players gone that were major contributers. Goins and Barney were both worse than -1, but both primarily as backup infielder and 1 of them will have that role still(presumably Barney)

So overall through those 6 players out you're losing a combined contribution of -0.97. That's right, you're actually losing a loss by subtracting those 6 guys.

Now it's important to note that in this stat 0 isn't replacement level like in WAR. Every percentage point gained by the hitter is lost by the pitcher and vice versa so 0 would be average.

So if we replaced these 6 guys with league average players and everyone performed the same way we'd gain a win. Pearce and Morales are fairly average so far. Probably above average actually.

Also important to note, this stat tells you the impact a player had on the teams probability to win games in the past. It's based on situational results. Sisutations change. Donaldson might hit the exact same number of homeruns next year but it won't be in the same spots. He could be just as good of a player and his WPA go up or down, that's just the luck of clutch hitting which isn't really a skill at all.

Also important to note this doesn't include defense. Defense is sort of included in pitcher WPA I guess, except for errors, because a guy who can't get to a ball that results in a single is a bad result for the pitcher and hurts his WPA. Bautista and Saunders, not exactly good defensively so losing their defense could also improve our poitchers WPA slightly.

So yeah that's basically my very long rant about how we might not statistically be worse next year. It sort of revolves around the though that we were to some extent unlucky last year and a slightly better team if Saunders, Cecil, and Dickey weren't situationally horrible and replacing them with guys who are just average is in turn actually a huge gain.

But yeah, still annoyed we didn't get Fowler like a lot of the rest of you, just some food for thought.

 

[Garlando]

To the guy suggesting that Fowler could be a bad contract on a long term deal based on OFs decline in their 30's, here's an article on why he might retain much of his value over a longer term deal

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dexter-fowler-should-age-well-regardless-of-the-defense/

 

[Dr.Funk]

How about Colby Rasmus in LF?














I'll see myself out.

 

[Eyedea]

I don't think there is anything wrong with being somewhere in the middle. AA was far too aggressive with the whole Marlins/Dickey/Price/Martin deal/trades but this management to me seems stuck in the middle and unwilling to commit to a rebuild/contend. I would be absolutely fine with them trading off JD/Estrada/Happ pieces and rebuilding around Sanchez/Stroman/Osuna as a possible starting rotation. I just don't see how this team, even if it spends the 15-25m resources they have remaining will be better than they were last year. I have full trust in them rebuilding the club through the draft and developing prospects, I just don't like this "contend in the short term, develop for the long term" mentality because it hardly works out. Hope that is fair enough.

Osuna ain't a starter anymore, and they did commit to contending because they were put into that situation. This is why they signed Estrada and Happ last year, this is why they signed Morales and Pearce this year (and are continuing to look at free agents). They are reconstructing the major league team without having to commit long term dollars or sacrifice young talent. This is what Ben Cherington did in the 2012-13 offseason with the Red Sox. He dumped a bunch of salary out and spread that around by acquiring undervalued players like Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, David Ross, and Stephen Drew. He went small term in order to bridge a gap to the prospects coming up in the system like JBJ, Betts, XBo, Swihart, Ed Rod, et al.

 

[JS19]

In my mind, best thing that can happen is we sign Revere (love his speed, and can lead off), Chris Iannetta (just a feeling on him, like him as a #2 being Martin), and by some grace of the almighty bring back Encarnacion for something around 3 years, 18M$ per.

Our bullpen will still be hot garbage, but hey, they may still be entertaining.

As far as Shapiro and Atkins, I don't think I've ever disliked a pair of figures in management in my entire life. Corporate shills if ever there were.

Make no mistake - without Fowler, and without bringing back EE, Rogers will happily just keep that extra 15-20M$ a season. Shapiro got that big by promising a contending team on a budget. Let's see how well that goes when attendance drops like a stone if we start losing next season.

If you've seen him play over the past year, Revere is FAR from the best thing that can happen, but clearly you haven't.

 

[Canada4Gold]

and just another FYI, WPA is exactly to a tee comparitive to a teams record. If the combined WPA of everyone who played on your team adds to 0 you finished 81-81. The Jays combined WPA last year(just added i up) was 7.99(which is 8, rounding cut off 0.01), the Jays finished with 81+8 wins = 89-73 record.

Take those 6 guys off the team last year and replace them with players who produce exactly average situational results the Jays basically finish 90-72, as hard as that is to believe.

 

[TribalPhoenix]

If you've seen him play over the past year, Revere is FAR from the best thing that can happen, but clearly you haven't.

I have, but I'm just looking at utility. The reality is we're going to be a worse team, and I'd rather sign him rather than pissing away prospects going after a Blackmon.

 

[AllDay28]

I have, but I'm just looking at utility. The reality is we're going to be a worse team, and I'd rather sign him rather than pissing away prospects going after a Blackmon.

Why are we gonna be worse when we were led by pitching last year and our pitching got better with Sanchez/Stroman being a yr older and Liriano replacing Dickey? I'm confused