Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 5.0 - The Winter Meeting Chronicles

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

To the guy suggesting that Fowler could be a bad contract on a long term deal based on OFs decline in their 30's, here's an article on why he might retain much of his value over a longer term deal

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dexter-fowler-should-age-well-regardless-of-the-defense/

In rebuttal, here is a list of outfielders 31 and older and how they performed in 2016:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...d=0&team=0&rost=0&age=31,58&filter=&players=0

And here's 32:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...d=0&team=0&rost=0&age=32,58&filter=&players=0

And here's 33:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...d=0&team=0&rost=0&age=33,58&filter=&players=0

And here's 29 and younger:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...d=0&team=0&rost=0&age=18,29&filter=&players=0

Its a young man's position that smart franchises should field young (or at least younger) players in. Dexter Fowler is certainly not special enough to be immune to this rule.

 

[teeder333*]

So if we avoid temptation on resigning EE and JB, what is our draft pick, situation?

 

[showtime8]

Question about any sign and trade situations that have happened before:

I'm not sure if this has ever happened, but I'm sure there are some teams that are out there that want to avoid coughing up a 1st round pick to sign Bautista. So is there a way that the Jays could pull off a sign and trade and pick up 2 prospects in the deal. For example, the Mariners want to sign Bautista to a 2 year deal. Instead of giving up the 1st round pick, the Jays sign Bautista to the 2 year deal and trade him to Seattle for Tyler O'Neill & Andrew Moore.

 

[no13matssundin]

Wow, they really are going hard on the Shapkins failing filling the holes on the Fan...

 

[Woodman19]

Wow, they really are going hard on the Shapkins failing filling the holes on the Fan...

Of course they are. Casual fans are stupid and think real life is a video game and money is endless.

 

[GoonieFace]

Wow, they really are going hard on the Shapkins failing filling the holes on the Fan...

Im really not sure what they expect them to do. Overpaying on Fowler (if he even would sign here) doesnt make sense to me. Acts of desperation will only hurt them more in the following years. They still have a potent line-up, its only December, and im sure they will still make something happen to improve the OF. They dont have the prospect capital to acquire an Eaton type player (which was a massive overpayment). Their approach to me seems sound, add some solid players on shorter term contracts to bridge the gap for Tellez/Alford.

They have two young top of the line starters (Stroman/Sanchez), solid closer/SS/2B/Catcher/CF/3B. If they choose to extend Donaldson, that will eat alot of salary and having another $17 million tied up in Fowler doesnt make sense to me when you can fill that position internally in a season or two (Pompey/Alford) for a fraction of that cost, and hopefully make a bigger free agent splash in a few years.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Of course they are. Casual fans are stupid and think real life is a video game and money is endless.

The fan590 gives voice to the ignoramus. Its a very simple formula: unintelligently overreact, as loud as possible...rinse and repeat (always repeat).

 

[Woodman19]

Im really not sure what they expect them to do. Overpaying on Fowler (if he even would sign here) doesnt make sense to me. Acts of desperation will only hurt them more in the following years. They still have a potent line-up, its only December, and im sure they will still make something happen to improve the OF. They dont have the prospect capital to acquire an Eaton type player (which was a massive overpayment). Their approach to me seems sound, add some solid players on shorter term contracts to bridge the gap for Tellez/Alford.

They have two young top of the line starters (Stroman/Sanchez), solid closer/SS/2B/Catcher/CF/3B. If they choose to extend Donaldson, that will eat alot of salary and having another $17 million tied up in Fowler doesnt make sense to me when you can fill that position internally in a season or two (Pompey/Alford) for a fraction of that cost, and hopefully make a bigger free agent splash in a few years.

I believe they are projected to win 88-90 games with the team as is. We only need to add a couple more wins to make a run at it and that can be done without unloading the farm or tapping out our future financial flexibility.

 

[janesy12]

Of course they are. Casual fans are stupid and think real life is a video game and money is endless.

You mean we can't trade for McCutchen and sign EE & Bautista?

 

[Woodman19]

You mean we can't trade for McCutchen and sign EE & Bautista?

If there is one thing that screams contention, it's having 5 DH/1B types on the active roster.

 

[janesy12]

If there is one thing that screams contention, it's having 5 DH/1B types on the active roster.

"We've also had discussions on acquiring Sandoval."

 

[Bjindaho]

Question about any sign and trade situations that have happened before:

I'm not sure if this has ever happened, but I'm sure there are some teams that are out there that want to avoid coughing up a 1st round pick to sign Bautista. So is there a way that the Jays could pull off a sign and trade and pick up 2 prospects in the deal. For example, the Mariners want to sign Bautista to a 2 year deal. Instead of giving up the 1st round pick, the Jays sign Bautista to the 2 year deal and trade him to Seattle for Tyler O'Neill & Andrew Moore.

Different teams place different values on their picks, but generally a 1st rounder will always be worth less in baseball (where they are so far away) than a prospect (unless it is a throw-away prospect).

What Colorado did is stupid if they only get Desmond, but if they sign anyone better (Bautista, Trumbo, Edwin), it isn't such a bad deal.

The common complaint is that you don't pay good CF prices for a LF or RF (which we projected Fowler and Eaton as). Washington's trade for Eaton is heinous when they put him in CF, because he has shown time and time again that while he is an elite RF, he is a poor CF.

Management is biding their time, trying to spread value. If they don't make a splash, which is possible, then you'll see our RF, LF, and 1B/DH positions putting up roughly the same WAR next year combined through platoons and strategy.

 

[trellaine201]

If there is one thing that screams contention, it's having 5 DH/1B types on the active roster.

Yah unless things change it looks like we will have several one dimensional players.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Different teams place different values on their picks, but generally a 1st rounder will always be worth less in baseball (where they are so far away) than a prospect (unless it is a throw-away prospect).

What Colorado did is stupid if they only get Desmond, but if they sign anyone better (Bautista, Trumbo, Edwin), it isn't such a bad deal.

The common complaint is that you don't pay good CF prices for a LF or RF (which we projected Fowler and Eaton as). Washington's trade for Eaton is heinous when they put him in CF, because he has shown time and time again that while he is an elite RF, he is a poor CF.

Management is biding their time, trying to spread value. If they don't make a splash, which is possible, then you'll see our RF, LF, and 1B/DH positions putting up roughly the same WAR next year combined through platoons and strategy.

This is a good post.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

The Jeff Blair show is opening the phone lines. If you want all the funny, I suggest tuning in.

 

[Bjindaho]

If the season starts today (which it clearly doesn't), we'd have a team like:

C Martin
1B Smoak/Pearce
2B Travis
SS Tulo
3B Donaldson
LF Upton
CF Pillar
RF Pompey
DH Morales
BN Carrera
BN Jimenez
BN Barney

SP Sanchez
SP Happ
SP Estrada
SP Stroman
SP Liriano

LP Tepera
MR Sparkman
MR Loup
MR Barnes
MR Biagini
LOOGY Dermody
SU Grilli
CP Osuna

A cheap LF who hits righties and LF becomes something like Moss/Upton which is good. And we still have around 25 million that we can add.

 

[Bjindaho]

One thing that comes up time and time again is that bullpens are fickle. The guys that do well every year are now making big bucks (and still have the same odds of crumbling).

If Loup gains confidence in himself, he can be a good LOOGY (he had great peripherals last year but kept grooving fastballs after making pitches). We don't NEED to add to the pen (we can always make moves in season like we have the last few years). There is potential that our pen could be decent.

Right now, our wants are a backup C (to push Jimenez), an outfielder who mashes righties (which will likely be someone like Bruce or Moss if the price is right) and another outfielder if we have left overs. If we need extra wiggle room, Smoak could be moveable.

 

[one77]

Is Logan still available? I remember the Jays being interested in him and I think he'd be a great addition to the pen

 

[Hoverhand]

Is Logan still available? I remember the Jays being interested in him and I think he'd be a great addition to the pen

Hopefully his inflated Coors numbers can get us a discount.

 

[Discoverer]

If the season starts today (which it clearly doesn't), we'd have a team like:

C Martin
1B Smoak/Pearce
2B Travis
SS Tulo
3B Donaldson
LF Upton
CF Pillar
RF Pompey
DH Morales
BN Carrera
BN Jimenez
BN Barney

SP Sanchez
SP Happ
SP Estrada
SP Stroman
SP Liriano

LP Tepera
MR Sparkman
MR Loup
MR Barnes
MR Biagini
LOOGY Dermody
SU Grilli
CP Osuna

A cheap LF who hits righties and LF becomes something like Moss/Upton which is good. And we still have around 25 million that we can add.

Yep... and while it's easy to complain about the guys they didn't get, there are still lots of ways to improve the team.

I would still be looking for a full-time outfielder, an Upton platoon partner, and a lefty reliever. Another on top of that (a backup catcher, another righty, a Smoak replacement) is a bonus, but not necessary.

 

[Loosie]

But we didn't get all the FAs! The sky is falling!

I will say this the guys they didn't get wasn't for lack of trying.

It's also December. There's still lots of time to fill out the lineup.

 

[oilers89]

Couple of options that id consider that prob wouldn't break the bank:
Trade for Cain - One year left on deal, price wouldn't/shouldn't be crazy
Trade for Melky - 1 year left as well, price wouldn't be high
Trade for granderson - 1 year left as well
Sign Brandon moss to platoon with Upton OR
Trade for Seth Smith to platoon with Upton

My ideal scenario would be Trade for Cain with Harold Ramirez+jon Harris
Trade for Melky for Reese McGuire

Lorenzo Cain - R
Devon Travis-R
Josh Donaldson-R
Franklin Morales-S
Steve Pearce -R
Troy Tulowitzki-R
Melky Cabreara-S
Russell Martin-R
Kevin Pillar-R

Bench
Upton, Smoak, Barney/goins, Jiminez/innetta,Pompey

 

[phillipmike]

I read that AM 670 (Cubs radio station) is reporting that Fowler got 90M over 5 years. Though i havent read it anywhere else.

Glad the Jays didnt come close to that. That is and will be an awful deal if true.

 

[FearTheBeard]

Couple of options that id consider that prob wouldn't break the bank:
Trade for Cain - One year left on deal, price wouldn't/shouldn't be crazy
Trade for Melky - 1 year left as well, price wouldn't be high
Trade for granderson - 1 year left as well
Sign Brandon moss to platoon with Upton OR
Trade for Seth Smith to platoon with Upton

My ideal scenario would be Trade for Cain with Harold Ramirez+jon Harris
Trade for Melky for Reese McGuire

Lorenzo Cain - R
Devon Travis-R
Josh Donaldson-R
Franklin Morales-S
Steve Pearce -R
Troy Tulowitzki-R
Melky Cabreara-S
Russell Martin-R
Kevin Pillar-R

Bench
Upton, Smoak, Barney/goins, Jiminez/innetta,Pompey

Cain and Melky will fetch bigger returns than that

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Steamer '17 projected wOBA / wRC+

Seth Smith: .328 / 108
Dexter Fowler: .333 / 107
The Melky: .332 / 107
Curtis Granderson: .327 / 106
Brandon Moss: .325 / 102
Michael Saunders: .325 / 101
Lorenzo Cain: .325 / 100
Jay Bruce: .313 / 97
Rowdy Tellez: .316 / 95
Dalton Pompey: .310 / 91
Harold Ramirez: .299 / 86
BJ Upton: .296 / 81
Zeke Carrera: .296 / 81
Dwight Smith: .291 / 78