Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 5.0 - The Winter Meeting Chronicles

[zeke]

Sure. His on-base is great, and you'd love to have a ~.390 OBP at the top of your lineup. But not at that cost, and most notably, not at that term.

$16.5m for age 31-35 seasons for a career 110wrc+ bat, 120wrc+ over last 3-5yrs, with likely plus corner OF defense?

that is absolutely reasonable. closer to a bargain than an overpay, actually.

 

[AINEC*]

Edwin should be giving Cal Clutterbuck's agent a call right now.

 

[hockeywiz542]

the cardinals have had $40 million come off the payroll and they are about to benefit from a $1.1 billion tv rights deal. They do not hide from their ability to spend. They could become more aggressive than previously believed, turning toward free-agent sluggers mark trumbo and edwin encarnacion as possible pursuits.

the cardinals will lose the 19th overall pick in 2017 if they sign fowler.

in discussions with other teams this past week about possible trade targets — eaton, blackmon, and, at one time, kansas city’s lorenzo cain, and likely others — the cardinals recognized that teams wanted top pitching prospect alex reyes. That’s the equivalent of what the white sox got for eaton and his five years of control.

The cardinals did not have the next-tier prospect to talk a team like the white sox off of reyes. They did explore deals with larger groups of prospects.

mozeliak referred to it as a “gap†on the depth chart, and they encountered a similar issue with the free-agent market on wednesday afternoon. Once ian desmond had agreed to a five-year, $70 million deal with colorado, the outfield market had a similar gap. there was fowler at the top and then a dip to a group that did not include the surefire transformative player the cardinals sought. Opposing teams at the winter meetings saw fowler as the best and most-obvious fit for the cardinals, and that left the cardinals to meet or exceed his asking price to make it happen.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

$16.5m for age 31-35 seasons for a career 110wrc+ bat, 120wrc+ over last 3-5yrs, with likely plus corner OF defense?

that is absolutely reasonable. closer to a bargain than an overpay, actually.

No one is saying overpay. I'm simply talking about risk, and the mitigation thereof. Look at the production of outfielders who remain outfielders in their age 33, 34, 35 seasons. Is the frequency of those outfielders being above 2.5 fWAR high or low?

 

[hallhopkinseberle]

1.Pompey-LF
2.Travis-2B
3.Donaldson-3B
4.Bautista-RF
5.Tulo-SS
6.Morales-DH
7.Pearce-1B
8.Martin-C
9.Pillar-CF

Bench:
1B-Smoak
2B/3B/SS-Barney
OF-Melvin Upton Jr.
OF-Ezequiel Carrera
C-Chris Iannetta

Switch Bautista and Pearce is Bautista ***** the bed Defensively in the Outfield. Also Sign Bats to 1 year deal.

 

[zeke]

Steamer '17 projected wOBA / wRC+

Seth Smith: .328 / 108
Dexter Fowler: .333 / 107
The Melky: .332 / 107
Curtis Granderson: .327 / 106
Brandon Moss: .325 / 102
Michael Saunders: .325 / 101
Lorenzo Cain: .325 / 100
Jay Bruce: .313 / 97
Rowdy Tellez: .316 / 95
Dalton Pompey: .310 / 91
Harold Ramirez: .299 / 86
BJ Upton: .296 / 81
Zeke Carrera: .296 / 81
Dwight Smith: .291 / 78

Smith is a pure platoon bat and the projections project his usage as such.

melky, moss, and saunders are DHs, not OFers.

Granderson is a solid comp for Fowler, but he's 36, has just as high a salary, and will cost significant trade assets.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

No one is saying overpay. I'm simply talking about risk, and the mitigation thereof. Look at the production of outfielders who remain outfielders in their age 33, 34, 35 seasons. Is the frequency of those outfielders being above 2.5 fWAR high or low?

Another thing to consider is the compensation attached to him. It's not a huge deal, but you'd also be losing a 1st round pick, which can be used to help shore up the pool some more.

 

[zeke]

Plus the Jays likely would have had to go higher since they're Toronto (though it's hard to quantify the effect that has on any given player) and they weren't able to offer him the CF job.

If that's what he ends up with, the Jays probably would have had to go into the $100 million vicinity.

This is one of my biggest fears with this FO - they don't realize how hard it usually is to get free agents to come here.

For a long while toronto simply wasn't a consideration for top free agents, aside from a Cano-to-SEA overpay.

Now they actually have top free agents giving them the time of day and willing to sign for market par or less and they're not understanding that that won't last.

 

[Neil Hamburger]

Like most here, I'm not feeling good about our off-season so far.

BUT, as things stand, our team could still compete for a playoff spot.

We'll likely pick up an OFer, and some bullpen pieces, and be looking a little better.

MAYBE we sign one of Jose or EE to a very reasonable deal. If we don't sign them, though, we should have 3 1st round picks, and be in a position to really build our prospect pool. That could pay off a couple of years down the line when Donaldson inevitably leaves (hopefully through trade so we can further boost our pool), and help us avoid another 20 year playoff drought.

 

[Walshy7]

Another thing to consider is the compensation attached to him. It's not a huge deal, but you'd also be losing a 1st round pick, which can be used to help shore up the pool some more.

and each of Atkins and Shapiro have said this is a big reason why it is hard for us to trade for a high end guy, our prospects aren't valued very highly. I can see why they would be hesitant, not saying they are but if they were 3 1st rd picks (assuming we don't sign EE or JB) would go a long way to replenishing the pool for either high end young players for the jays or value for trades

 

[zeke]

No one is saying overpay. I'm simply talking about risk, and the mitigation thereof. Look at the production of outfielders who remain outfielders in their age 33, 34, 35 seasons. Is the frequency of those outfielders being above 2.5 fWAR high or low?

probably best to look just at CF, actually.

 

[Garlando]

I'm kinda hoping the Jays take a look at the trade market and grab at least one OF, whether it's an undervalued established guy or even if it's a guy in the minors they believe in. The FA market seems a little dry and prices are crazy at the moment (they are in the trade market too!) A guy like Steven Duggar of the Giants organization might be of interest IMO and he could potentially play this year. He combines a lot of good tools in a pretty polished product already. He combines good walk rates (10.1% BB in AA and 14.1% in A+ last year) with good K rates (18.5% in AA and 21.5% in A+ last year) with good speed (70 grade on MLB.com Prospect watch) and a strong arm (60 grade). While he hasn't shown much power at AA, he did hit 9 HRs in 70 games in A+ along with a .178 iso this year. A 131 wRC+ across both levels shows he's a pretty good hitter and I think there's potential for more if he can hit for more power. The Giants have a ton of young OFs in the minors and I think he could be had for a reasonable price in a prospect swap and help improve the position prospects of this organization and maybe help out a bit this year. Just a thought.

 

[Eyedea]

Smith is a pure platoon bat and the projections project his usage as such.

No they aren't. They're predicting he starts against righties and lefties over 110-115 games. That's like saying they're projecting Upton to have an 81 wRC+ against left handed pitching.

 

[zeke]

No they aren't. They're predicting he starts against righties and lefties over 110-115 games. That's like saying they're projecting Upton to have an 81 wRC+ against left handed pitching.

no, they're predicting he plays his usual strict platoon role.

Proj.: 482pa
2016: 438pa --- 405pa vRH, 33pa vLH
2015: 452pa --- 399pa vRH, 53pa vLH
2014: 521pa --- 455pa vRH, 66pa vLH

 

[Longshot]

Pretty disappointing winter so far. In terms of the results, not the effort.

But, this is what happens when they have to look at free agency to fill needs. There are other teams involved and usually every winter there are one of two teams that blow their brains out spending. What St. Louis gave Fowler blows me away. Seems way over the top.

With the lack of depth in the upper levels of the farm system there wasn't much of a way to make an impact trade (and considering what Chicago received for Eaton, I'm not sure that would have been the route anyway).

In hindsight, it feels like it was pre-mature for the Jays to sign Morales when they did. The slugger market hasn't really developed at all this winter. EE, Bautista, Trumbo, Saunders, Moss and it feels like I'm forgetting someone are all still out there.

Locking themselves into a DH early really limited their options later on. After the signed Morales and then Pierce it basically became: "get an impact OFer or bust."

With Fowler off the board, I don't see any impact OFers and, unless they plan to use Pierce as mutli-positional guy, I don't see how they can chase any of those sluggers. EE really doesn't fit, unless Pierce is going to be a non-1B guy all year. Maybe Bautista could split 1B/RF.

It's easy to complain and rip them, but everybody should remember: they made significant offers to both EE and Fowler - the two premier hitters on the market. The Jays can't control what other teams offer and what free agent players ultimately decide.

Obviously they're going to get somebody, but I'm not expecting anything really inspiring.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

probably best to look just at CF, actually.

Whatever you want. Though he would've been playing in a corner in Toronto. Plus your samples bigger, which is always better.

 

[zeke]

Whatever you want. Though he would've been playing in a corner in Toronto. Plus your samples bigger, which is always better.

the point being that corner OF defense deteriorating turns into DHs.

CF defense deteriorating still usualy turns into solid corner OF defensive value.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

T

the point being that corner OF defense deteriorating turns into DHs.

CF defense deteriorating still usualy turns into solid corner OF defensive value.

Not always though. Especially not for people who have struggled in big centerfields.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Atkins/Shapiro locking themselves into Morales so early was their big mistake this offseason, and for a management team that always talks about maintaining flexibility, they gave a lot of that up when they signed a guy who can only play DH so early. They jumped the gun, and that's evident with how the situation for other big bats has played out.

They without a doubt misread the market. They figured that once EE turned down the 4/80 million they were out of the running and moved on. Yes, you can say that hindsight is 20/20 - but making judgements based on where they think the market will go is their job, and they made a bad judgement.

Without Morales, we could be talking about having EE play 50/50 1B/DH with Pearce. We'd be in a better situation than with Morales as DH and Pearce/Smoak at 1B.

 

[zeke]

yeah the morales thing definitely killed their flexibility.

they better be right about his batted ball data predicting big things for him next year.

 

[Neil Hamburger]

The Pearce contract shows how stupid the Smoak contract was, too.

Smoak gets a 2 year $10.15 m deal BEFORE free agency.

Pearce, a better hitter, more flexible defender, etc gets a 2 year $12.5 m deal during free agency.

Signing Smoak to that headscratcher also really hurt our flexibility.

 

[zeke]

the smoak deal was literally throwing money out the window.

 

[TimeZone]

the smoak deal was literally throwing money out the window.

That signing absolutely boggled my mind at the time, and it certainly isn't making any more sense now.

 

[Paladin2799]

I COMPLETELY disagree with those of you saying that the front office jumped the gun with morales.

Morales is a fine replacement for either/both of EE/JB and if he would have slipped out of their grasp this forum would be going NUTS that we have done absolutely **** all to improve the team.

I think the FO had to have known that they were not bringing back both of EE/JB and targeted morales right from the get go as a quality player available at a reasonable rate and moved quickly to lock him up.

Morales is definitely not holding them back from signing EE or JB if they want too, if anything it gives them more leverage in negotiations because they already have a replacement player ready.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see both EE/JB come back. EE on a good deal around whats being proposed (4x20ish), and JB on a 1 year deal.

 

[Erndog]

Atkins/Shapiro locking themselves into Morales so early was their big mistake this offseason, and for a management team that always talks about maintaining flexibility, they gave a lot of that up when they signed a guy who can only play DH so early. They jumped the gun, and that's evident with how the situation for other big bats has played out.

They without a doubt misread the market. They figured that once EE turned down the 4/80 million they were out of the running and moved on. Yes, you can say that hindsight is 20/20 - but making judgements based on where they think the market will go is their job, and they made a bad judgement.

Without Morales, we could be talking about having EE play 50/50 1B/DH with Pearce. We'd be in a better situation than with Morales as DH and Pearce/Smoak at 1B.

EE's agent misjudged the market, not Atkins/Shapiro.