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Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season discussion: Two signings. Rinse, Repeat add 1.

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Turner is a pretty good addition if he plays like last year. I feel like the Jays have to add another player to say "they have improved the offense significantly". Bellinger would likely make the most sense.
 
jetsforever said:
Cool that we have at least a marketable star
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Good thing that management has refused to sign either of our young guys to long term deals, are bickering over the final details of this contract and could potentially be walking both Vlad and Bo out the door.
 
Pretty sure this is our team now. Maybe a few small tweaks. Looking at the team salary I think we’re at the max and level one paying luxury tax. Of course I could be wrong but we must be close. Thus I think we’re betting on a much better offense.
 
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Bjindaho said:
Good thing that management has refused to sign either of our young guys to long term deals, are bickering over the final details of this contract and could potentially be walking both Vlad and Bo out the door.
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If they had signed him to a huge deal before last season and he then put up the 2023 that he did people would be sharpening their pitchforks because the team overpaid him. And I imagine that his camp is probably the one who's not looking to sign a deal this winter because of said underwhelming 2023 suppressing his value.

Also where are you getting that they're "bickering over the finer details"? I don't even think I've heard a "the Jays are offering X and Vlad/Bo are countering with Y" report yet. As far as has been reported I think they've only really had exploratory discussions, which is fair because honestly with what their potential is supposed to be I don't imagine the ceiling on either of their contracts will go much higher even if they both have all-star years this season (because that expectation would've been baked into a new contract if we set aside Vladdy's 2023 swoon. It's not like we're sitting on a pair of breakout prospects who could've been signed for cheap and are now worth all-star money)


Re: The Show cover, that's cool. Maybe I'll get it this year. I bought the 23 edition on the Switch around Christmas because it was on sale for like $20 and I had enough Nintendo points to take the price down to almost $10. It's been enjoyable even though I hate how all the sports franchises are consumed with microtransaction/gambly ultimate team modes to the detriment of the franchise and career modes. Though I mostly tend to just play RTTS as a pitcher anyways even though some of the AI logic confounds me (I hate that they've taken out manager interactions some time between this version and the last one I played before it. I want to tell my manager off for constantly pulling me the moment I give up a hit in the 7th.)
 
I understand the complaints about not extending Bo since he's been pretty consistently awesome since coming into the league, but Vlad? There's no way both sides would have been on the same page at any time in his career to this point. The only time Vlad should have been interested in an extension would have been after his massive 2021, and if the Jays had done that it would look terrible for them right now.
 
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trellaine201 said:
Pretty sure this is our team now. Maybe a few small tweaks. Looking at the team salary I think we’re at the max and level one paying luxury tax. Of course I could be wrong but we must be close. Thus I think we’re betting on a much better offense.
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I think the expectation is probably that Vlad has to rebound from last season, Varsho should be able to be closer to what he was in Arizona vs what he did last season and Kirk has to rebound from his poor 2022. You probably also hope for a mild bounce-back from Springer even if you accept that at 34 and with a history of injuries and having to man the Rogers Centre outfield turf he's not going to reach his 2021 high ever again. Even if just a couple of those happen that should make a big difference. Mostly they need the power to rebound. Can't have Vlad failing to reach 30 HR. Probably need Varsho and Springer to get closer to 25 apiece. Jansen should hopefully clear 20 HR if he gets regular playing time. You'd hope that if Schneider or Biggio get regular time at 2nd (or 3rd for Schneider) they can do better than Merrifield's 11 dingers or Espinals 2 last year. You'd hope that Turner can at least reach 20 if not surpass his 23 from last season.

I still think there's a move to be made to get someone who can play a bit more 3B so they don't HAVE to use a Turner/Kiner-Falefa/Schneider/Espinal carousel there all year or bet on Barger or Martinez forcing the issue (which would be nice but should not be an expectation).

If we figure they do 13 pitchers and 13 fielders on a 26 man roster right now it's:

1) Springer (RF)
2) Bichette (SS)
3) Guerrero Jr (1B)
4) Turner/half-off-day for someone else if Turner's at 3rd or 1st (DH)
5) Jansen/Kirk (C)
6) Varsho (LF)
7) Schneider/Kiner-Falefa/Espinal/Turner (3B)
8) Espinal/Biggio/Schneider/Kiner-Falefa (2B)
9) Kiermaier (CF)

B1) Kirk/Jansen (C)
B2) Kiner-Falefa (Util)
B3 & B4) Whichever 2 of Schneider/Espinal/Biggio aren't starting

Rotation: Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Kikuchi*, Manoah/Camp Surprise (being super aggressive here, but Tiedmann?)
Bullpen
1) Romano
2) Green
3) Cabrera*
4) Garcia
5) Mayza*
6) Swanson
7) Richards
8) Flex spot/Camp standout (Zulueta, Pop, Danner, Pearson, Rodriguez, Francis or White if they want a long man, some random ST invite who steps up. Who knows)
*LHP
 
The Nemesis said:
That's just arb figures though, isn't it? Not the same as a long-term contract expectation (which would pretty certainly be significantly higher than that)
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Yes. But why going to arb for such a small difference? Just sign short term at 19.9. It's going to be short term after arb anyway.
 
The Nemesis said:
I think the expectation is probably that Vlad has to rebound from last season, Varsho should be able to be closer to what he was in Arizona vs what he did last season and Kirk has to rebound from his poor 2022. You probably also hope for a mild bounce-back from Springer even if you accept that at 34 and with a history of injuries and having to man the Rogers Centre outfield turf he's not going to reach his 2021 high ever again. Even if just a couple of those happen that should make a big difference. Mostly they need the power to rebound. Can't have Vlad failing to reach 30 HR. Probably need Varsho and Springer to get closer to 25 apiece. Jansen should hopefully clear 20 HR if he gets regular playing time. You'd hope that if Schneider or Biggio get regular time at 2nd (or 3rd for Schneider) they can do better than Merrifield's 11 dingers or Espinals 2 last year. You'd hope that Turner can at least reach 20 if not surpass his 23 from last season.

I still think there's a move to be made to get someone who can play a bit more 3B so they don't HAVE to use a Turner/Kiner-Falefa/Schneider/Espinal carousel there all year or bet on Barger or Martinez forcing the issue (which would be nice but should not be an expectation).

If we figure they do 13 pitchers and 13 fielders on a 26 man roster right now it's:

1) Springer (RF)
2) Bichette (SS)
3) Guerrero Jr (1B)
4) Turner/half-off-day for someone else if Turner's at 3rd or 1st (DH)
5) Jansen/Kirk (C)
6) Varsho (LF)
7) Schneider/Kiner-Falefa/Espinal/Turner (3B)
8) Espinal/Biggio/Schneider/Kiner-Falefa (2B)
9) Kiermaier (CF)

B1) Kirk/Jansen (C)
B2) Kiner-Falefa (Util)
B3 & B4) Whichever 2 of Schneider/Espinal/Biggio aren't starting

Rotation: Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Kikuchi*, Manoah/Camp Surprise (being super aggressive here, but Tiedmann?)
Bullpen
1) Romano
2) Green
3) Cabrera*
4) Garcia
5) Mayza*
6) Swanson
7) Richards
8) Flex spot/Camp standout (Zulueta, Pop, Danner, Pearson, Rodriguez, Francis or White if they want a long man, some random ST invite who steps up. Who knows)
*LHP
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Only way Kirk rebound is if he improved his fitness. The Jays management probably already know if it's going to happen or not. Kirk is a good player if he's fit he'll do better but if he show up at camp like last year forget about it. Last year he looked like a 30 years old drunk guy who drinks away his past mistakes and have no hope for the future. My dad looked in better shape at 80 ... But i assume Jays management sat down with him at the end of the season to discuss about that?
 
LaP said:
Yes. But why going to arb for such a small difference? Just sign short term at 19.9. It's going to be short term after arb anyway.
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arbitration's weird like that. If they just sign the high figure it sets the precedent that they'll cave easily and every player will come in expecting to get their higher value or they'll take it to the hearing.
 
LaP said:
Yes. But why going to arb for such a small difference? Just sign short term at 19.9. It's going to be short term after arb anyway.
Click to expand...

It’s not an insignificant difference at the arb level and Vladdy is already smashing arb records despite not improving last season. He’s still getting a raise due to how the arb system works but it’s not an exorbitant one like his agency is arguing for.

As for Bo, he’s been a huge symbol for the MLBPA since coming up. Denying the pre-arb contracts the Blue Jays “reward” their players, only signing long enough to take him to free agency. He’s going to gun for (and get) a 300m+ contract in his sleep assuming he continues his current level of play.
 
LaP said:
Only way Kirk rebound is if he improved his fitness. The Jays management probably already know if it's going to happen or not. Kirk is a good player if he's fit he'll do better but if he show up at camp like last year forget about it. Last year he looked like a 30 years old drunk guy who drinks away his past mistakes and have no hope for the future. My dad looked in better shape at 80 ... But i assume Jays management sat down with him at the end of the season to discuss about that?
Click to expand...

people keep harping at this as if there's not a massive sample of tubby guys who were feared hitters at least until their bodies broke down much later than Kirk's age. Does he need to get in better shape to make sure he has a longer career and potentially to not be so much of a liability on the basepaths. But he didn't have a down year because he's a fatso. He had a down year because he suddenly couldn't hit the ball as hard as he had done previously.
 
Turner is a good add but I wish we would have gotten Candelario. The price was solid and the fit would have been quite good.
 
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The Nemesis said:
people keep harping at this as if there's not a massive sample of tubby guys who were feared hitters at least until their bodies broke down much later than Kirk's age. Does he need to get in better shape to make sure he has a longer career and potentially to not be so much of a liability on the basepaths. But he didn't have a down year because he's a fatso. He had a down year because he suddenly couldn't hit the ball as hard as he had done previously.
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It's not about him being tubby. I mean he look gazed walking from the dugout to the home plate.
 
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The Nemesis said:
people keep harping at this as if there's not a massive sample of tubby guys who were feared hitters at least until their bodies broke down much later than Kirk's age. Does he need to get in better shape to make sure he has a longer career and potentially to not be so much of a liability on the basepaths. But he didn't have a down year because he's a fatso. He had a down year because he suddenly couldn't hit the ball as hard as he had done previously.
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but the shortest of the tubby guys as a example is Fielder who was 5'11, most are well above 6 ft tall. Kirk is 5'7 on a good day
 
ryno23 said:
5-9 doesn't inspire much confidence in the offense improving. Internal improvement sure but teams are going in scared to face 5-9 in a series.

1. George Springer, RF
2. Bo Bichette, SS
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
4. Justin Turner, DH
5. Schneider / Biggio, 2B
6. Jansen / Kirk, C
7. Daulton Varsho, LF
8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B
9. Kevin Kiermaier, CF
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If Vlad is what he‘s been , will teams be scared of anyone other than Bo?
 
TheMadHatTrick said:
I would sign Snell and trade pitching for a bat. Snell projects to be the biggest difference-maker left unsigned (3.3 WAR). Bellinger is next best at 3 WAR. I wouldn't want to face the Jays in a 7 game series with Gausman, Snell, and Berrios/Bassitt.
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Snell feels like a time bomb (his success last year belies a career worst walk rate and a lot of signs that what he did was potentially a fluke) and a luxury we don't need to focus on. Unless Kikuchi implodes they have 4 quality or better arms in the rotation right now and that's more than good enough for the season and the post-season even if 1 of them struggles in October.
 
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