Sure, but that's not an "if the Jays perform like last year" thing. They would have to take a couple steps back for that to happen.
Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season discussion: Two signings. Rinse, Repeat add 1.
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phillipmike
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- Oct 27, 2009
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Potentially. Last year there were eight 90 win teams and 3 teams just hit 90 (Rangers, Astros and Phillies). Jays had 89 wins and Pythagorean W-L had them at 89 wins. If they are close to the 2024 projections, then the Jays should be right on the cusp of 90 if not there already.
The AL East will be interesting again.
Last year it was;
Baltimore: 101 wins
Tampa: 99 wins
Jays: 89 wins
Yankees: 82 wins
Red Sox: 78 wins
Based on Run Differential it should have been:
Tampa: 100 wins
Baltimore: 94 wins
Jays: 89 wins
Red Sox: 81 wins
Yankees: 78 wins
Tampa lost a full season of a superstar and 7-8 WAR in Franco, and Glasnow but will have full seasons of Civale and Pepiot - still not enough. Baltimore overachieved, they didnt lose anyone but didnt gain anyone. Tampa and Baltimore will be around 90 wins too.
Yankees are the kicker. FG loves them with a total 48.1 projected fWAR which is 3rd in baseball behind only the Braves and Dodgers. However, last season they put up a cumulative 28 fWAR, yes you read that right. I dont see 20 fWAR improvement. Rodon is still always hurt and Cortes still has a shoulder injury. Soto is a huge upgrade and Volpe should be better along with Storman but that is maybe 10 fWAR tops - not mention thats around 4 fWAR out the door (King, German and Bader's 2023 production). They won 82 games and had only 4 players with 2 fWAR or higher last year; Judge, Cole, King and Torres and they traded King. Last year the Jays had 12 players and that didnt include Manoah, Vladdy or Kirk who had a combined 2.2 fWAR.
I see the Jays, Tampa, Yankees and O's at the same tier. Jays have more depth them all of them so they have the higher floor. O's have the highest ceiling because of their age and Yankees might be there too with 3 superstars; Judge, Soto and Cole but they are aging and the depth is bad. Tampa is Tampa but im wondering with Franco likely gone for good, its too much to overcome.
In a perfect world, I'd still like to see one of the backup IF moved so that Clement has a spot.
IMO, either Horwitz is the extra OF (which I'd be okay with given that half the bench can play OF) or the Jays need to add an OF to the end of the roster. A Matt Vierling could work.
IMO, either Horwitz is the extra OF (which I'd be okay with given that half the bench can play OF) or the Jays need to add an OF to the end of the roster. A Matt Vierling could work.
phillipmike
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Blair mentioned that JD Martinez prefers to stay out west and said he is interested in the Angels - but teams on the east coast are still interested. Soler is looking for term at around 3 years and also speculates that Belts wants to player closer to home (Texas) and with the Rangers interested, he is a perfect fit.
Sounds like the Jays approached JD and Soler but based on Martinez preference to play out west and Soler wanting term, Turner was the better fit for them.
Sounds like the Jays approached JD and Soler but based on Martinez preference to play out west and Soler wanting term, Turner was the better fit for them.
Here's my offseason summary:
Need: Optionable Starter
Signed Yariel Rodriguez - this is arguably the best fit for this spot that the team possibly could have done
Need: 3B with Chapman a FA
Signed IKF and Turner
This one is tough. If Espinal gets moved, then the money on IKF isn't as rough. If IKF was the Espinal on the bench, he's actually a better fit than Espy because he's an excellent baserunner.
If Turner plays 60+ at 3B, this becomes less of an issue, but if IKF is playing every day at 3B, this is a monumentally bad move because Espinal is flat out better.
Need: LF with Kiermeier a FA
Signed Kiermeier
This has the potential to go either way.
If management does the intelligent thing and plays Kiermeier in LF and grabs a RH lefty masher to platoon with Varsho (Kevin plays CF those days), then this is better than a Bellinger.
If management does the expect and plays Kiermeier in CF and Varsho in LF and considers Schneider the backup, then we've gone to bananaland. That would theoretically put IKF, Espinal and Schneider all in the lineup regularly against lefties.
There's still time for a couple of things to move one way or another, and there's a possibility that someone like Palmegiani enters the discussion for 3B soon, which could impact this.
Need: Optionable Starter
Signed Yariel Rodriguez - this is arguably the best fit for this spot that the team possibly could have done
Need: 3B with Chapman a FA
Signed IKF and Turner
This one is tough. If Espinal gets moved, then the money on IKF isn't as rough. If IKF was the Espinal on the bench, he's actually a better fit than Espy because he's an excellent baserunner.
If Turner plays 60+ at 3B, this becomes less of an issue, but if IKF is playing every day at 3B, this is a monumentally bad move because Espinal is flat out better.
Need: LF with Kiermeier a FA
Signed Kiermeier
This has the potential to go either way.
If management does the intelligent thing and plays Kiermeier in LF and grabs a RH lefty masher to platoon with Varsho (Kevin plays CF those days), then this is better than a Bellinger.
If management does the expect and plays Kiermeier in CF and Varsho in LF and considers Schneider the backup, then we've gone to bananaland. That would theoretically put IKF, Espinal and Schneider all in the lineup regularly against lefties.
There's still time for a couple of things to move one way or another, and there's a possibility that someone like Palmegiani enters the discussion for 3B soon, which could impact this.
- Dec 12, 2017
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I think they’ll be right around where they were last year but with a lower win ceiling, because Pitching will likely hit a few more bumps along the way.
We’ll have much better idea in 90 days, but right now, I’m optimistic that Bo will be in the MVP conversation and they’ll be in the 85-89 W range. Depending on how they look getting there would determine if they are sellers during the season. If they mirror last year, they probably should sell if the return is worth it.
I don’t know if the new guys are better then the old guys, but it doesn’t seem like the difference is massive. Also a full season from Babe should prove to be better then Whit.
Horwitz + Turner + Schneider + IKF
Belt + Chapman + Merrifield + Espinal
I guess Espinal is returning for now but I think his days are numbered.
Horwitz + Turner + Schneider + IKF
Belt + Chapman + Merrifield + Espinal
I guess Espinal is returning for now but I think his days are numbered.
Kurtz
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Clearly worse.
Turner roughly on par with Belt but IKR is a pretty big drop off from Chapman. We also lost Hicks and Ryu and replaced them with a Cuban pitcher who is a pretty big question mark.
This is kind of a misnomer.
They had a combined 1.1 fWAR (mostly Ryu). Rodriguez could be in Manoah's spot, could be injury depth, could be a long man, or he could be high leverage.
If Manoah bounces back, he's better than both combined. If he doesn't, Yariel is likely 5th starter and Pop is in the pen.
- Dec 12, 2017
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I think the offense is still a step below last year in terms of players in and out, but I disagree completely on the pitching side. Hicks threw 24 innings last year - I think that's easily replaced by a healthy Green. Ryu threw 52 innings, and I don't think it's unreasonable to think Rodriguez and/or an improved Manoah can replace what he brought.
Suntouchable13
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I wonder what is happening with Bellinger. We have not heard anything recently. You have to believe the Jays are still in play for him, no?
Woodman19
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- Jun 14, 2008
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We lost a lot of swing and miss with Belt and Chapman swapped out for Turner and IKF, which is something.
Clearly that huge $300 million market he had was there and teams can't stop throwing money at him that he hasn't been able to make his decision yet
Kurtz
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More durable probably, but even the optimistic projections don't put him anywhere near the .858 OPS that Belt had last year.
If he can play semi-regular 3B that would change things though.
He was talking about guys in/out - Green, Manoah were on our roster last year.
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He was closer to .900 until the last month of the season when he apparently had a bad foot. Blair and Barker had a guy that follows Boston on their podcast yesterday talking about him.
TheBeastCoast
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Most successful professional front offices operate that way. I really do not understand why some fans here are still so hung up on that being an ask of AA lol it wasn't in anyway an unreasonable or uncommon thing to expect at the time or right now.
MK78
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Yeah the pitching staff was crazy good & healthy even with Manoah flaming out, as they were coming off terrible years from Kikuchi & Berrios, who turned around very well, and got very good years from Gausman & Bassitt, and got a decent return out of Ryu for 2 months after he returned from his TJ.
I'm also worried that the pitching will not be able to repeat that level of performance as well as stay that healthy.
The hitting has to improve to counter that. Addition of Turner is good, but the biggest pressure will be on Vladdy. We'll see what he's made of I guess.
GoonieFace
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Dr.Funk
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Suntouchable13
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I think we can not count on the health luck to continue into 2024 that's for sure. I really want to make a run at the division title, Jays have to hit in order to make it happen. Vladdy needs to show that he is worth a big investment for a long time.
Forgotusername
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Yes had to run stuff by him, in an interview he said he had couldn't call Beeston past 10 and would have to wait for the next day to get his okay.
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phillipmike
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I like the Turner signing as much as anyone but unless MLB knows something about Turner we don’t, having him on this list is ridiculous. He played 7 games at 3B last year.
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