Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season discussion: Two signings. Rinse, Repeat add 1.

[TheMadHatTrick]

Snell feels like a time bomb (his success last year belies a career worst walk rate and a lot of signs that what he did was potentially a fluke) and a luxury we don't need to focus on. Unless Kikuchi implodes they have 4 quality or better arms in the rotation right now and that's more than good enough for the season and the post-season even if 1 of them struggles in October.

I'm going to put the chances our rotation continues the unprecedented run of health and performance it had last year conservatively at less than 30%. If Snell is a time bomb, then Kikuchi is a vile of nitroglycerin.

In any case the purpose is not necessarily to improve our rotation (though it does that) but to create depth from which to trade from. Unless Bellinger's ask comes down significantly trading for a bat might be the more prudent path.

 

[trellaine201]

I would sign Snell and trade pitching for a bat. Snell projects to be the biggest difference-maker left unsigned (3.3 WAR). Bellinger is next best at 3 WAR. I wouldn't want to face the Jays in a 7 game series with Gausman, Snell, and Berrios/Bassitt.

Highly unlikely we’re spending more as the roster stands. And that kinda money makes it even less.

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[Bjindaho]

I'm going to put the chances our rotation continues the unprecedented run of health and performance it had last year conservatively at less than 30%. If Snell is a time bomb, then Kikuchi is a vile of nitroglycerin.

In any case the purpose is not necessarily to improve our rotation (though it does that) but to create depth from which to trade from. Unless Bellinger's ask comes down significantly trading for a bat might be the more prudent path.

By time bomb, most experts think that Snell's next contract will be an albatross from day one.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Orioles were just sold....if they got sold to a good owner that is willing to spend....we might be in danger lol

 

[Its not your fault]

Orioles were just sold....if they got sold to a good owner that is willing to spend....we might be in danger lol

Private is always a good sign, for us.

 

[MK78]

I don't hate it, he literally would have been one of the Jays best hitters last year.

I just hope he doesn't magically stink, but at least its only 1 year...

but these years are ticking on Bo and Vladdy, and also others like Gausman, Jansen etc...

 

[Suntouchable13]

Highly unlikely we’re spending more as the roster stands. And that kinda money makes it even less.

I don't think the roster is set. If it is, then Atkins is delusional. We need someone like Bellinger, or make a trade.

 

[mikeyz]

A lot of puppets theories out there, such nonsense. Shapiro is busy enough with the business side of the game, not sure he wants to be a puppet master as well

It’s not a theory. It’s a fact. Anthopolous even said that part of the reason he was leaving was because he was told that every move he made moving forward had to be approved by Shapiro.

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[Woodman19]

It’s not a theory. It’s a fact. Anthopolous even said that part of the reason he was leaving was because he was told that every move he made moving forward had to be approved by Shapiro.

As opposed to other teams where the buck stops at the GM? Lol

 

[Eyedea]

It’s not a theory. It’s a fact. Anthopolous even said that part of the reason he was leaving was because he was told that every move he made moving forward had to be approved by Shapiro.

And he wasn’t ever handcuffed by Beeston’s 5 year signing policy?

 

[Discoverer]

As opposed to other teams where the buck stops at the GM? Lol

Yeah, how many teams have a GM with full autonomy these days? AA was fortunate that he had more freedom before because Beeston almost exclusively took care of the business side, but that's very rare. And even then he had specific rules that limited what the GM could do.

 

[MK78]

Vladdy, people knew you when you blasted 91 homers at the All Star Game in 2019. They also knew it when you went head to head with Ohtani for 48 homers each in 2021.

You slipped in 2022, and even more in 2023.

Get serious and start swingin' for the fences again.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Puckstuff]

If Turner can play 30-40 games at third, and Orelvis Martinez is a 2nd half option at 3rd, the Jays could limit IKF to only starting 60-70 games.

They could also run with Turner at 3B and Horwitz/2nd catcher at DH vs righties. Or Turner at DH and Martinez at 3B vs lefties.

I like that IKF and Turner can both play 3rd, but in the case of a Martinez or AAA call up Turner still holds value at DH and IKF still holds value as a defensive utility player.

 

[Nineteen67]

Stayed Behind is the new slogan replacing Next Level

 

[TGB]

There is still a lot that can happen, but as it stands this team is slated to win about 83-85 games.

People don't recognize how wildly lucky they got last year. Yes, Manoah had a forgettable season, but the lack of injuries from the staff completely negated his loss, and then they were able to pull an Ace out of their pocket in Ryu for the second half of the season. They got similar luck for the rest of the team with Bichette and Jansen's late injuries probably being the most significant.

No, that level of luck just isn't common anymore, and this time they won't have Ryu to save them (and it's highly unlikely Tiedmann will do what Manoah did). Consider their lack of depth beyond a former ace and the unlikeliness of being injury free and that's easily AT LEAST 5 less wins. And that's not even considering the loss of Chapman at third, their inability to address their power issues, the highly likely continuing decline of Springer, Turner, and Kiermayer, and Vladdy's continued demonstration of immaturity and inability to adapt. Their clutch hitting issues continue to haunt them. They couldn't even clutch the wild card last year. They had to wait for the Mariners to do it for them.

Of course, this team has more than enough potential to explode and completely turn it around. They have more than enough untapped power. Jensen alone could make a huge difference if he would just make it through a season uninjured. Let's just say there is a 75% chance they will be a moderately decent team this year and a 25% chance they will find the next gear.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

There is still a lot that can happen, but as it stands this team is slated to win about 83-85 games.

People don't recognize how wildly lucky they got last year. Yes, Manoah had a forgettable season, but the lack of injuries from the staff completely negated his loss, and then they were able to pull an Ace out of their pocket in Ryu for the second half of the season. They got similar luck for the rest of the team with Bichette and Jansen's late injuries probably being the most significant.

No, that level of luck just isn't common anymore, and this time they won't have Ryu to save them (and it's highly unlikely Tiedmann will do what Manoah did). Consider their lack of depth beyond a former ace and the unlikeliness of being injury free and that's easily AT LEAST 5 less wins. And that's not even considering the loss of Chapman at third, their inability to address their power issues, the highly likely continuing decline of Springer, Turner, and Kiermayer, and Vladdy's continued demonstration of immaturity and inability to adapt. Their clutch hitting issues continue to haunt them. They couldn't even clutch the wild card last year. They had to wait for the Mariners to do it for them.

Of course, this team has more than enough potential to explode and completely turn it around. They have more than enough untapped power. Jensen alone could make a huge difference if he would just make it through a season uninjured. Let's just say there is a 75% chance they will be a moderately decent team this year and a 25% chance they will find the next gear.

Mr Negativity taking the pessimistic point of view. How about Vladdy returning to 2021 form, or Kirk returning to being a decent hitter, or Varsho hitting like he did in Arizona, or our pitching remains one of the best in the majors, and so on. See, I choose to see the glass half full. Even without anymore moves this team is capable of putting up 92 wins.

 

[Puckstuff]

Mr Negativity taking the pessimistic point of view. How about Vladdy returning to 2021 form, or Kirk returning to being a decent hitter, or Varsho hitting like he did in Arizona, or our pitching remains one of the best in the majors, and so on. See, I choose to see the glass half full. Even without anymore moves this team is capable of putting up 92 wins.

The more I think about it, the more I like the Turner signing.

Soler isn't anything special, especially vs. righties, but committing to Soler longer term could have handcuffed the Jays. Turner has a higher floor, and he can play some 3B at times, giving Horwitz a little bit of playing time at DH. If Orelvis Martinez steps up at 3B at some point, Turner is even more valuable staying at DH.

Also, if a bigger bat becomes available through trade, they don't have money committed to J.D. Martinez or Soler next season.

There will be teams that fall out of the playoff race, and with Turner on a 1-year deal, you aren't handcuffed from taking on a guy with multiple years if a good bat becomes available through trade, which could have been the case with Soler on a multi year deal.

 

[Nineteen67]

I caught a bit of Blair this AM and he makes a good point that if the Jays perform like last year they have a lot of trade bait.

 

[Discoverer]

I caught a bit of Blair this AM and he makes a good point that if the Jays perform like last year they have a lot of trade bait.

Like... pieces they can trade to improve the team at the deadline? Because if they perform like last year, they're going to make the playoffs again.

 

[phillipmike]

2023 Blue Jays:
25.8 hitter WAR
13.5 SP WAR
5.1 RP WAR

44.4 total WAR (7th in MLB)

2024 Blue Jays Projections:
27.8 hitter WAR
13.3 SP WAR
3.2 RP WAR

44.3 total WAR (5th in MLB)

2024 projections have you at pretty much 3+ WAR at every position except LF and 3B where you can still see an upgrade. Those positions are still projected for 2.3 and 2.1 WAR respectively.

So already a very similar team with a lot of players left on board plus potential in season trades.

 

[Suntouchable13]

2023 Blue Jays:

25.8 hitter WAR
13.5 SP WAR
5.1 RP WAR

44.4 total WAR (7th in MLB)

2024 Blue Jays Projections:

27.8 hitter WAR
13.3 SP WAR
3.2 RP WAR

44.3 total WAR (5th in MLB)

2024 projections have you at pretty much 3+ WAR at every position except LF and 3B where you can still see an upgrade. Those positions are still projected for 2.3 and 2.1 WAR respectively.

So already a very similar team with a lot of players left on board plus potential in season trades.

If the projections are 5th in MLB in WAR, then this should be a 90+ win team. No? Last season, definitely underachieved.

 

[Nineteen67]

Like... pieces they can trade to improve the team at the deadline? Because if they perform like last year, they're going to make the playoffs again.

I caught it late, but I think he was saying they could offload a few assets at TDL, and in the off-season if they do complete overhaul.

I’ve noticed over the last week or so that The fan590 is lowering expectations for this year.