Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season discussion: Two signings. Rinse, Repeat add 1.

[Ale Brew]

There is also a lot of upside in bats like Vladdy and Kirk that can offset any perceived loss of production by Springer and KK. If those guys keep hitting like they did last year, then yes, this offence will struggle. But I think there is great upside there, and they will hit much better

Not to mention Babe Schneider getting regular AB’s this year.

 

[Hellcat]

Did we already post this?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Not to mention Babe Schneider getting regular AB’s this year.

Also, who knows maybe even Bo has that next gear and can improve on his numbers from last season.

 

[landy92mack29]

Danny Jansen staying healthy is another wildcard because when he's healthy he rakes...plus he's going into FA and players magically always have big years then

 

[Dr.Funk]

Kirk was 4.88 to first two years ago and 4.91 last year. He's only a bottom 10/bottom 15 down the line in a bad year and more like bottom 25 2 years ago. IIRC, Benjie was over 5 seconds down the line.

Don't let facts get in the way now

 

[Eyedea]

And the team lost Merrifield, Belt, Chapman.

Is a 34 year old Springer and KK going to produce as well as last season?
The teams offense as constructed will struggle.

Aside from Belt and a couple months of Chapman, is it really that big of a miss? They can still see plenty of improvement internally.

And yes regarding Springer. I don’t 100% buy the dip he had last year. I think he’ll be better in 2024.

 

[Zero1]

Danny Jansen staying healthy is another wildcard because when he's healthy he rakes...plus he's going into FA and players magically always have big years then

How has be not been signed to an extension yet? You trade Moreno but you don’t lock up Jansen?

 

[The Iceman]

Aside from Belt and a couple months of Chapman, is it really that big of a miss? They can still see plenty of improvement internally.

And yes regarding Springer. I don’t 100% buy the dip he had last year. I think he’ll be better in 2024.

I disagree on Springer.

He had a healthy year last year. i dont expect a season quite as healthy or productive @ 34 years old.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Kurtz]

Not to sound pessimistic, but the folks excusing or overlooking our poor offseason by pointing to possible internal improvements seem quite myopic to me.

Let's be realistic for a second. We have one of the oldest teams in the majors (I think 2nd oldest). We had good injury luck last year, especially on the pitching side. We won't see much help from the farm.

So while it's possible, if everything goes right, that we might come out ok, the far more realistic scenario is that the teams around us, who are younger, have better prospects, and didn't have the injury luck that we had last year, will see much more internal improvement than we will.


And as far as Vladdy goes....if he wasn't a Jay but some guy playing on one of the more obscure NL teams, and you looked at his player card and saw his 5 seasons, 4 of which were remarkably similar (~.800 OPS) and one great (1K OPS)...would we not find it logical to assume that the one season is the outlier and the most reasonable expectation from him would be another ho-hum .800 OPS season?

 

[MK78]

Slap on the wrist, no loss of pay because he was already paid off after he resigned last year.

I guess it might hurt his chances of getting another GM job though.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Had to be the Mets

 

[Hellcat]

Aside from Belt and a couple months of Chapman, is it really that big of a miss? They can still see plenty of improvement internally.

And yes regarding Springer. I don’t 100% buy the dip he had last year. I think he’ll be better in 2024.

Guys like Valddy who had a terrible year, by his standards, he will probably bounce back. Maybe Varsho after a year in the AL knows the pitching a little better and improves? Maybe Schneider plays 3B and produces more consistent than Chapman? Bellinger is apparently going to sign here. On the negative side of the ledger - what if our pitching staff is not as good/elite/healthy as last year, one step forward one step back? I think is the most likely scenario. I dont see this team as it is constructed now being much better or much worse than last year. I think the offence will be better and the pitching staff will wont be a good.

 

[Eyedea]

I disagree on Springer.

He had a healthy year last year. i dont expect a season quite as healthy or productive @ 34 years old.

That was an uncharacteristically brutal drop in power last year for Springer. Whether he was healthy or perhaps dealing with something behind the scenes he was always visibly frustrated and looked out of it mentally. I can’t really look at age and just automatically eliminate the possibility of a bounce back.

Guys like Valddy who had a terrible year, by his standards, he will probably bounce back. Maybe Varsho after a year in the AL knows the pitching a little better and improves? Maybe Schneider plays 3B and produces more consistent than Chapman? Bellinger is apparently going to sign here. On the negative side of the ledger - what if our pitching staff is not as good/elite/healthy as last year, one step forward one step back? I think is the most likely scenario. I dont see this team as it is constructed now being much better or much worse than last year. I think the offence will be better and the pitching staff will wont be a good.

And that’s fair. Maybe the pitching isn’t as good but the hitting is a bit better. That’s pretty much what the projections say about the Jays and routinely have them as a WC1/2 and top 10 team in baseball.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Eyedea]

Not to sound pessimistic, but the folks excusing or overlooking our poor offseason by pointing to possible internal improvements seem quite myopic to me.

Let's be realistic for a second. We have one of the oldest teams in the majors (I think 2nd oldest). We had good injury luck last year, especially on the pitching side. We won't see much help from the farm.

So while it's possible, if everything goes right, that we might come out ok, the far more realistic scenario is that the teams around us, who are younger, have better prospects, and didn't have the injury luck that we had last year, will see much more internal improvement than we will.


And as far as Vladdy goes....if he wasn't a Jay but some guy playing on one of the more obscure NL teams, and you looked at his player card and saw his 5 seasons, 4 of which were remarkably similar (~.800 OPS) and one great (1K OPS)...would we not find it logical to assume that the one season is the outlier and the most reasonable expectation from him would be another ho-hum .800 OPS season?

Average age by team doesn’t really tell us anything. Majority of the “older” teams are the most competitive while the younger ones are typically rebuilding. Toronto, Texas, Atlanta, and Phillies were all around the same average age in both hitters/pitchers.

Kirk, Vladdy, Bo, Manoah, and Schneider are all ‘98s and ‘99s. The only guys born in the 2000s on the O’s are Gunnar and Cowser.

And as far as Vladdy goes, sure. But last year was incredibly odd. Everyone was trying to diagnose a problem because he was hitting the ball as well as he was in 2021 (peripherals) but the results weren’t there. This is also someone who routinely matches his xstats so it’s not a case of him always being underwhelming. He was poor early on, was elite in 2021, good/great in 2022, and underperformed in 2023. Look at his home/road splits as another indicator of how odd of a year it was. And he wasn’t the only one to perform poorly at home, but there were also cases of the opposite happening (Kirk, Biggio, Jansen). Just a strange year from the offence.

 

[MK78]

2021 Vladdy has to be taken with a grain of salt, as he played 2/3rd of home games at a spring training and minor league ballparks.

So did Marcus Semien, and he hasn't even sniffed close to the 45 homers he had in 2021.

I fear the Vladdy we saw in 2019, 2022 and 2023 is kinda what he is gonna be. 25-30hr, 90-100rbi. Thats not terrible by any stretch, but it's not elite. And he plays the least premium position in the field.

 

[Eyedea]

2021 Vladdy has to be taken with a grain of salt, as he played 2/3rd of home games at a spring training and minor league ballparks.

So did Marcus Semien, and he hasn't even sniffed close to the 45 homers he had in 2021.

I fear the Vladdy we saw in 2019, 2022 and 2023 is kinda what he is gonna be. 25-30hr, 90-100rbi. Thats not terrible by any stretch, but it's not elite. And he plays the least premium position in the field.

This has already been discussed in great lengths and there’s no definitive evidence that he greatly benefited by playing in minor league ballparks.

2019, 2022, and 2023 are three different types of hitters. Just pointing to counting stats hardly proves a point about the impact he can have offensively.

 

[Kurtz]

This has already been discussed in great lengths and there’s no definitive evidence that he greatly benefited by playing in minor league ballparks.

2019, 2022, and 2023 are three different types of hitters. Just pointing to counting stats hardly proves a point about the impact he can have offensively.

That's debatable. In 2021 his OPS was .935 at Rogers, 1.180 at Sahlen and 1.418 at TD. That can't be ignored.

 

[Eyedea]

That's debatable. In 2021 his OPS was .935 at Rogers, 1.180 at Sahlen and 1.418 at TD. That can't be ignored.

And nobody can seem to explain why he was the only one capable of mashing at minor league parks. Plus a .935 OPS is… still elite? He was 145+ wRC+ hitter away from the minor league parks and one of his best months that year came in September.

Like the Semien HR total is a fabrication of what really happened as well. He wasn’t suddenly a better hitter (2019 is still his best season by wRC+), he just hit more home runs. And 13 of those (the most he hit in a month) came in September away from minor league parks.

So why was Vladdy the only one that could hit well in minor league parks? If it was such an advantage for hitters then his wRC+ would reflect that. Bo would’ve mashed, Teo would’ve mashed, Gurriel would’ve mashed, the opposing team would’ve mashed. I just don’t see a legitimate reason to suggest that it was a benefit when he was the only one putting up crazy numbers in those parks.

 

[DFF]

They need a couple big bats and didnt get any except Turner who is over the hill. Spin whatever you want but that's the fact.

 

[trellaine201]

Why the ? Because he is exercising?

 

[phillipmike]

MLB 2024 farm system rankings: Keith Law ranks all 30 teams, Orioles are new No. 1

Two playoff teams — the Orioles and Brewers — top this list, while two struggling AL West clubs — the Angels and A's — are at the bottom.

theathletic.com

20. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays have some really exciting guys in the low minors, but a large number of returning prospects stalled or even took steps backward last year, guys like Tucker Toman, Brandon Barriera, Gabriel Martinez, Manuel Beltre and Dasan Brown. They did get a big year from Orelvis Martinez (No. 57), restoring hope he can be an above-average regular in the majors, and got one of the steals of the first round in shortstop Arjun Nimmala (No. 59) in the last draft.

 

[phillipmike]

Turner was on Blair and Barker and they asked him about his free agency experience compared to others he experienced:

Turner: Definitely different. Going into the GM meetings there was a lot of chatter and communication in between teams. A lot interest going on. Seem like there was going to be a super healthy winter for free agents. I don’t know if the bug going on at the GM meetings, had it been cut short early kind of just put a damper in everything early. I don’t know what happened but it seemed liked it came almost to a halt for everyone. And you look now and you will how guys that are still out there is mind blowing to me to see the calibre of players. This is definitely different. I thought it was going to be one of the best free agencies I’ve been to in, it ended up being one of the slowest. One of the least interesting I’ve had from teams but it all worked out because I ended up in Toronto which is a great spot. Toronto is one of the teams i was hoping to work out a deal with.

Also said he had a brief discussion where he would play; little 3B, 1B and mostly DH. But nothing in detail because he doesn’t know if this is going to be the team going into the season with the amount of free agents available.

 

[Kurtz]

And nobody can seem to explain why he was the only one capable of mashing at minor league parks. Plus a .935 OPS is… still elite? He was 145+ wRC+ hitter away from the minor league parks and one of his best months that year came in September.

Like the Semien HR total is a fabrication of what really happened as well. He wasn’t suddenly a better hitter (2019 is still his best season by wRC+), he just hit more home runs. And 13 of those (the most he hit in a month) came in September away from minor league parks.

So why was Vladdy the only one that could hit well in minor league parks? If it was such an advantage for hitters then his wRC+ would reflect that. Bo would’ve mashed, Teo would’ve mashed, Gurriel would’ve mashed, the opposing team would’ve mashed. I just don’t see a legitimate reason to suggest that it was a benefit when he was the only one putting up crazy numbers in those parks.

Wasn't our overall team OPS significantly higher in at least one of those two stadiums compared to Rogers?